1, Photovoltaic kawg thov: Qhov kev thov rau photovoltaic ntsia muaj peev xwm muaj zog, thiab qhov kev thov rau polysilicon yog thim rov qab raws li qhov kev kwv yees muaj peev xwm.
1.1. Polysilicon noj: Ntiaj teb nonoj ntim yog nce tsis tu ncua, feem ntau yog rau photovoltaic zog tsim
Kaum xyoo dhau los, thoob ntiaj tebpolysiliconkev noj tau nce ntxiv, thiab Tuam Tshoj qhov kev faib ua feem tau txuas ntxiv nthuav dav, coj los ntawm kev lag luam photovoltaic. Los ntawm 2012 mus rau 2021, lub ntiaj teb no polysilicon noj feem ntau pom ib tug nce nce, nce los ntawm 237,000 tons mus txog 653,000 tons. Xyoo 2018, Tuam Tshoj txoj cai tshiab 531 photovoltaic tau tshaj tawm, uas tau txo qis cov nyiaj pab rau kev tsim hluav taws xob photovoltaic. Lub peev xwm photovoltaic tshiab tau poob los ntawm 18% xyoo-rau-xyoo, thiab qhov kev thov rau polysilicon tau cuam tshuam. Txij li xyoo 2019, lub xeev tau tshaj tawm ntau txoj cai los txhawb txoj kev sib koom ua ke ntawm photovoltaics. Nrog rau kev loj hlob sai ntawm kev lag luam photovoltaic, qhov kev thov rau polysilicon kuj tau nkag mus rau lub sijhawm ntawm kev loj hlob sai. Lub sijhawm no, kev faib ua feem ntawm Tuam Tshoj tus polysilicon noj nyob rau hauv tag nrho lub ntiaj teb no noj txuas ntxiv nce, los ntawm 61.5% nyob rau hauv 2012 mus rau 93.9% nyob rau hauv 2021, feem ntau yog vim Tuam Tshoj txoj kev loj hlob sai ntawm photovoltaic kev lag luam. Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm lub ntiaj teb kev noj cov qauv ntawm ntau hom polysilicon nyob rau hauv 2021, silicon cov ntaub ntawv siv rau photovoltaic hlwb yuav suav nrog tsawg kawg yog 94%, ntawm cov hnub ci qib polysilicon thiab granular silicon account rau 91% thiab 3%, feem, thaum. hluav taws xob-qib polysilicon uas tuaj yeem siv rau chips nyiaj rau 94%. Qhov piv yog 6%, uas qhia tau hais tias tam sim no thov rau polysilicon yog dominated los ntawm photovoltaics. Nws xav tias nrog kev ua kom sov ntawm ob-carbon txoj cai, qhov kev thov rau photovoltaic ntsia muaj peev xwm yuav muaj zog, thiab kev noj thiab feem ntawm hnub ci-qib polysilicon yuav nce ntxiv.
1.2. Silicon wafer: monocrystalline silicon wafer occupies lub ntsiab, thiab nruam Czochralski technology tsim sai heev
Qhov ncaj qha downstream txuas ntawm polysilicon yog silicon wafers, thiab Tuam Tshoj tam sim no dominates ntiaj teb no silicon wafer lag luam. Los ntawm 2012 mus rau 2021, lub ntiaj teb no thiab Suav silicon wafer muaj peev xwm tsim thiab tso zis txuas ntxiv mus, thiab kev lag luam photovoltaic txuas ntxiv mus. Silicon wafers ua tus choj txuas cov khoom siv silicon thiab cov roj teeb, thiab tsis muaj lub nra hnyav rau kev tsim khoom, yog li nws tseem nyiam ntau lub tuam txhab nkag mus rau hauv kev lag luam. Xyoo 2021, Suav silicon wafer manufacturers tau nthuav davntau lawmmuaj peev xwm mus rau 213.5GW tso zis, uas tau tsav lub ntiaj teb no silicon wafer ntau lawm nce mus rau 215.4GW. Raws li lub peev xwm uas twb muaj lawm thiab tshiab tau tsim nyob rau hauv Suav teb, nws xav tias qhov kev loj hlob txhua xyoo yuav tuav tau 15-25% nyob rau ob peb xyoos tom ntej no, thiab Tuam Tshoj cov khoom lag luam wafer tseem yuav tuav txoj haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv ntiaj teb.
Polycrystalline silicon tuaj yeem ua rau hauv polycrystalline silicon ingots lossis monocrystalline silicon rods. Cov txheej txheem ntau lawm ntawm polycrystalline silicon ingots feem ntau suav nrog txoj kev casting thiab txoj kev ncaj qha melting. Tam sim no, hom thib ob yog txoj hauv kev tseem ceeb, thiab tus nqi poob yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm 5%. Txoj kev casting yog tsuas yog yaj cov khoom siv silicon nyob rau hauv lub crucible ua ntej, thiab ces muab pov rau hauv lwm preheated crucible rau txias. Los ntawm kev tswj tus nqi txias, lub polycrystalline silicon ingot yog cam khwb cia los ntawm cov kev taw qhia solidification technology. Cov txheej txheem kub-melting ntawm txoj kev ncaj-melting yog tib yam li cov txheej txheem casting, uas cov polysilicon ncaj qha melted nyob rau hauv lub crucible ua ntej, tab sis lub txias kauj ruam yog txawv los ntawm txoj kev casting. Txawm hais tias ob txoj kev zoo sib xws, txoj kev melting ncaj qha tsuas yog xav tau ib qho crucible, thiab cov khoom lag luam polysilicon ua tau zoo, uas yog qhov zoo rau kev loj hlob ntawm polycrystalline silicon ingots nrog kev taw qhia zoo dua, thiab cov txheej txheem kev loj hlob yog ib qho yooj yim. automate, uas tuaj yeem ua rau sab hauv txoj haujlwm ntawm cov siv lead ua yuam kev txo. Tam sim no, cov tuam txhab ua lag luam hauv cov khoom siv hluav taws xob hnub ci kev lag luam feem ntau siv cov txheej txheem melting ncaj qha los ua polycrystalline silicon ingots, thiab cov pa roj carbon thiab cov pa oxygen muaj tsawg, uas tswj tau qis dua 10ppma thiab 16ppma. Nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej, zus tau tej cov polycrystalline silicon ingots tseem yuav dominated los ntawm txoj kev melting ncaj qha, thiab tus nqi poob yuav nyob ib ncig ntawm 5% hauv tsib xyoos.
Kev tsim cov monocrystalline silicon rods feem ntau yog raws li Czochralski txoj kev, ntxiv los ntawm txoj kev ncua kev kawm ntsug ntsug, thiab cov khoom tsim los ntawm ob qhov sib txawv siv. Czochralski txoj kev siv graphite tsis kam mus rau tshav kub polycrystalline silicon nyob rau hauv high-purity quartz crucible nyob rau hauv ib tug ncaj-tube thermal system kom yaj nws, ces ntxig cov noob siv lead ua rau saum npoo ntawm yaj rau fusion, thiab tig cov noob siv lead ua thaum inverting. crucible. , cov noob siv lead ua maj mam nce siab, thiab monocrystalline silicon tau txais los ntawm cov txheej txheem ntawm cov noob, kev nthuav dav, lub xub pwg tig, sib npaug ntawm txoj kab uas hla, thiab ua tiav. Txoj kev ntsug ntab ntab melting yog hais txog kev kho cov columnar high-purity polycrystalline cov khoom nyob rau hauv lub cub tawg chamber, txav cov hlau kauj maj mam raws cov polycrystalline ntev kev taw qhia thiab dhau los ntawm cov columnar polycrystalline, thiab dhau lub high-power xov tooj cua zaus tam sim no nyob rau hauv cov hlau. coil los ua ib feem ntawm sab hauv ntawm polycrystalline pillar coil melts, thiab tom qab lub kauj yog txav mus, cov yaj recrystallizes los ua ib qho siv lead ua. Vim muaj cov txheej txheem ntau lawm, muaj qhov sib txawv ntawm cov khoom siv ntau lawm, cov nqi tsim khoom thiab cov khoom zoo. Tam sim no, cov khoom tau los ntawm cheeb tsam melting txoj kev muaj siab purity thiab yuav siv tau rau kev tsim cov khoom siv semiconductor, thaum Czochralski txoj kev tuaj yeem ua tau raws li cov kev cai rau kev tsim ib qho siv lead ua silicon rau cov cell photovoltaic thiab muaj tus nqi qis, yog li nws yog txoj kev tseem ceeb. Xyoo 2021, kev lag luam sib faib ntawm txoj kev rub ncaj yog kwv yees li 85%, thiab nws xav tias yuav nce me ntsis hauv ob peb xyoos tom ntej no. Kev lag luam sib koom hauv 2025 thiab 2030 tau kwv yees tias yuav yog 87% thiab 90% feem. Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm koog tsev kawm ntawv melting ib leeg siv lead ua silicon, kev lag luam concentration ntawm koog tsev kawm ntawv melting ib tug siv lead ua silicon yog kuj siab nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no. nrhiav tau), TOPSIL (Denmark). Nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej, cov zis teev ntawm molten ib leeg siv lead ua silicon yuav tsis nce ho. Qhov laj thawj yog vim li cas Tuam Tshoj cov thev naus laus zis muaj feem cuam tshuam rov qab piv nrog Nyiv thiab Lub Tebchaws Yelemees, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog lub peev xwm ntawm cov cuab yeej siv cua sov thiab cov txheej txheem crystallization. Lub tshuab ntawm fused silicon ib leeg siv lead ua nyob rau hauv txoj kab uas hla loj yuav tsum tau Suav lag luam txuas ntxiv mus tshawb los ntawm lawv tus kheej.
Czochralski txoj kev tuaj yeem muab faib ua cov siv lead ua rub tawm txuas ntxiv (CCZ) thiab rov siv siv lead ua rub tawm tshuab (RCZ). Tam sim no, txoj hauv kev tseem ceeb hauv kev lag luam yog RCZ, uas yog nyob rau theem kev hloov pauv ntawm RCZ mus rau CCZ. Ib leeg siv lead ua rub thiab noj cov kauj ruam ntawm RZC yog ywj siab ntawm ib leeg. Ua ntej txhua qhov rub tawm, ib leeg siv lead ua ingot yuav tsum tau txias thiab tshem tawm hauv lub rooj vag chamber, thaum CCZ tuaj yeem paub txog kev pub mis thiab yaj thaum rub. RCZ kuj paub tab, thiab tsis muaj chaw me me rau kev txhim kho thev naus laus zis yav tom ntej; thaum CCZ muaj qhov zoo ntawm kev txo nqi thiab kev txhim kho kev ua haujlwm, thiab nyob rau theem ntawm kev loj hlob sai. Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm tus nqi, piv nrog RCZ, uas yuav siv sij hawm li 8 teev ua ntej ib tug pas nrig yog kos, CCZ tuaj yeem txhim kho kev ua tau zoo, txo tus nqi crucible thiab siv zog los ntawm kev tshem tawm cov kauj ruam no. Tag nrho ib lub qhov cub tso zis ntau tshaj 20% siab dua li ntawm RCZ. Tus nqi tsim khoom yog ntau dua 10% qis dua RCZ. Hais txog kev ua tau zoo, CCZ tuaj yeem ua tiav daim duab ntawm 8-10 ib leeg siv lead ua silicon rods nyob rau hauv lub neej voj voog ntawm lub crucible (250 teev), thaum RCZ tsuas tuaj yeem ua tiav li ntawm 4, thiab cov khoom ua tau zoo tuaj yeem nce los ntawm 100-150%. . Hais txog qhov ua tau zoo, CCZ muaj qhov sib txawv ntau dua, cov ntsiab lus oxygen qis dua, thiab qeeb qeeb ntawm cov hlau tsis huv, yog li nws tsim nyog rau kev npaj ntawm n-hom ib leeg siv lead ua silicon wafers, uas tseem nyob rau lub sijhawm ntawm kev loj hlob sai. Tam sim no, qee lub tuam txhab Suav tau tshaj tawm tias lawv muaj CCZ thev naus laus zis, thiab txoj hauv kev ntawm granular silicon-CCZ-n-hom monocrystalline silicon wafers tau pib meej, thiab tseem tau pib siv 100% granular silicon cov ntaub ntawv. . Yav tom ntej, CCZ yuav pib hloov RCZ, tab sis nws yuav siv qee cov txheej txheem.
Cov txheej txheem tsim khoom ntawm monocrystalline silicon wafers tau muab faib ua plaub kauj ruam: rub, hlais, hlais, tu thiab cais. Qhov tshwm sim ntawm cov pob zeb diamond hlau slicing txoj kev tau txo qhov slicing poob npaum li cas. Cov txheej txheem rub tawm siv lead ua tau piav qhia saum toj no. Cov txheej txheem slicing muaj xws li truncation, squaring, thiab chamfering ua haujlwm. Slicing yog siv lub tshuab slicing los txiav cov columnar silicon rau hauv silicon wafers. Ntxuav thiab sorting yog cov kauj ruam kawg hauv kev tsim cov silicon wafers. Lub pob zeb diamond hlau slicing txoj kev muaj cuab kev zoo tshaj cov tsoos mortar hlau slicing txoj kev, uas yog feem ntau xav nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm luv luv noj thiab tsawg poob. Qhov ceev ntawm pob zeb diamond hlau yog tsib npaug ntawm cov tsoos txiav. Piv txwv li, rau ib leeg-wafer txiav, tsoos mortar hlau txiav yuav siv sij hawm li 10 teev, thiab pob zeb diamond hlau txiav tsuas siv li 2 teev. Qhov poob ntawm pob zeb diamond hlau txiav kuj tseem me me, thiab cov txheej txheem kev puas tsuaj tshwm sim los ntawm pob zeb diamond hlau txiav yog me dua li ntawm mortar hlau txiav, uas yog qhov tsim nyog rau kev txiav thinner silicon wafers. Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, txhawm rau txo cov kev poob qis thiab cov nqi tsim khoom, cov tuam txhab tau tig mus rau pob zeb diamond hlau slicing txoj kev, thiab txoj kab uas hla ntawm pob zeb diamond hlau tsheb npav tau qis dua thiab qis dua. Xyoo 2021, txoj kab uas hla ntawm pob zeb diamond hlau busbar yuav yog 43-56 μm, thiab txoj kab uas hla ntawm lub pob zeb diamond hlau busbar siv rau monocrystalline silicon wafers yuav txo qis heev thiab txuas ntxiv mus. Nws yog kwv yees tias nyob rau hauv 2025 thiab 2030, lub diameters ntawm lub pob zeb diamond hlau busbars siv los txiav monocrystalline silicon wafers yuav yog 36 μm thiab 33 μm, feem, thiab cov diameters ntawm pob zeb diamond hlau busbars siv los txiav polycrystalline silicon wafers yuav yog 51 μm. e 51m,ua. Qhov no yog vim hais tias muaj ntau yam tsis xws luag thiab impurities nyob rau hauv polycrystalline silicon wafers, thiab nyias nyob ntawm tej yuav ua rau tawg. Yog li ntawd, txoj kab uas hla ntawm lub pob zeb diamond hlau busbar siv rau polycrystalline silicon wafer txiav yog loj dua li ntawm monocrystalline silicon wafers, thiab raws li kev lag luam feem ntawm polycrystalline silicon wafers maj mam txo, nws yog siv rau polycrystalline silicon txo nyob rau hauv lub cheeb ntawm lub pob zeb diamond. hlau busbars txiav los ntawm slices tau qeeb.
Tam sim no, silicon wafers feem ntau muab faib ua ob hom: polycrystalline silicon wafers thiab monocrystalline silicon wafers. Monocrystalline silicon wafers muaj qhov zoo ntawm kev pab cuam lub neej ntev thiab siab photoelectric conversion efficiency. Polycrystalline silicon wafers yog tsim los ntawm cov khoom siv lead ua nrog cov siv lead ua dav hlau sib txawv, thaum ib leeg siv lead ua silicon wafers yog ua los ntawm polycrystalline silicon ua raw cov ntaub ntawv thiab muaj tib lub dav hlau siv lead ua. Nyob rau hauv tsos, polycrystalline silicon wafers thiab ib leeg siv lead ua silicon wafers yog xiav-dub thiab dub-xim av. Txij li thaum ob yog txiav los ntawm polycrystalline silicon ingots thiab monocrystalline silicon rods, ntsig txog, cov duab yog square thiab quasi-square. Lub neej kev pab cuam ntawm polycrystalline silicon wafers thiab monocrystalline silicon wafers yog hais txog 20 xyoo. Yog tias txoj kev ntim khoom thiab siv ib puag ncig tsim nyog, lub neej kev pabcuam tuaj yeem ncav cuag ntau dua 25 xyoo. Feem ntau hais lus, lub neej ntawm monocrystalline silicon wafers yog me ntsis ntev dua li ntawm polycrystalline silicon wafers. Tsis tas li ntawd, monocrystalline silicon wafers kuj zoo dua me ntsis hauv kev ua haujlwm ntawm photoelectric hloov dua siab tshiab, thiab lawv cov dislocation ceev thiab hlau impurities tsawg dua li cov polycrystalline silicon wafers. Kev sib xyaw ua ke ntawm ntau yam ua rau cov neeg nqa khoom tsawg lub neej ntawm ib leeg muaju ntau ntau zaus siab dua li ntawm polycrystalline silicon wafers. Li no qhia qhov zoo ntawm conversion efficiency. Hauv xyoo 2021, qhov kev hloov pauv siab tshaj plaws ntawm polycrystalline silicon wafers yuav nyob ib ncig ntawm 21%, thiab ntawm monocrystalline silicon wafers yuav ncav cuag 24.2%.
Ntxiv nrog rau lub neej ntev thiab kev hloov pauv siab, monocrystalline silicon wafers kuj muaj qhov zoo ntawm kev ua kom nyias nyias, uas yog qhov tsim nyog rau kev txo qis silicon noj thiab silicon wafer cov nqi, tab sis them sai sai rau qhov nce ntawm qhov tawg. Lub thinning ntawm silicon wafers pab txo cov nqi tsim khoom, thiab cov txheej txheem slicing tam sim no tuaj yeem ua tau raws li qhov xav tau ntawm kev ua kom nyias nyias, tab sis cov tuab ntawm silicon wafers yuav tsum tau ua raws li cov kev xav tau ntawm cov hauv qab ntawm tes thiab cov khoom tsim. Feem ntau, cov thickness ntawm silicon wafers tau poob qis nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, thiab lub thickness ntawm polycrystalline silicon wafers yog loj dua li ntawm monocrystalline silicon wafers. Monocrystalline silicon wafers tau muab faib ua n-hom silicon wafers thiab p-type silicon wafers, thaum n-hom silicon wafers feem ntau suav nrog TOPCon Battery siv thiab HJT roj teeb siv. Xyoo 2021, qhov nruab nrab tuab ntawm polycrystalline silicon wafers yog 178μm, thiab qhov tsis xav tau yav tom ntej yuav ua rau lawv mus ntxiv nyias. Yog li ntawd, nws tau kwv yees tias cov thickness yuav txo qis me ntsis los ntawm 2022 txog 2024, thiab cov thickness yuav nyob twj ywm li ntawm 170μm tom qab 2025; qhov nruab nrab thickness ntawm p-hom monocrystalline silicon wafers yog hais txog 170μm, thiab nws yuav tsum poob mus rau 155μm thiab 140μm nyob rau hauv 2025 thiab 2030. Ntawm cov n-hom monocrystalline silicon wafers, lub thickness ntawm silicon wafers siv rau HJT hlwb. 150μm, thiab qhov nruab nrab tuab ntawm n-hom silicon wafers siv rau TOPCon hlwb yog 165μm. 135m ua.
Tsis tas li ntawd, kev tsim cov polycrystalline silicon wafers siv ntau silicon dua li monocrystalline silicon wafers, tab sis cov txheej txheem ntau lawm yog qhov yooj yim, uas coj tus nqi zoo rau polycrystalline silicon wafers. Polycrystalline silicon, raws li cov khoom siv raw rau polycrystalline silicon wafers thiab monocrystalline silicon wafers, muaj kev sib txawv ntawm kev tsim khoom ntawm ob, uas yog vim qhov sib txawv ntawm qhov purity thiab ntau lawm ntawm ob. Xyoo 2021, silicon noj ntawm polycrystalline ingot yog 1.10 kg / kg. Nws cia siab tias qhov kev nqis peev tsawg hauv kev tshawb fawb thiab kev tsim kho yuav ua rau muaj kev hloov pauv me me rau yav tom ntej. Kev siv silicon ntawm tus pas nrig rub yog 1.066 kg / kg, thiab muaj qee chav rau kev ua kom zoo. Nws yuav tsum yog 1.05 kg / kg thiab 1.043 kg / kg hauv 2025 thiab 2030, raws li. Hauv cov txheej txheem rub tawm ib leeg, qhov txo qis ntawm silicon noj ntawm cov rub pas nrig tuaj yeem ua tiav los ntawm kev txo qis kev tu thiab crushing, nruj me ntsis tswj qhov chaw tsim khoom, txo qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm primers, txhim kho precision tswj, thiab optimizing cov kev faib tawm. thiab kev siv thev naus laus zis ntawm cov khoom siv silicon degraded. Txawm hais tias silicon noj ntawm polycrystalline silicon wafers siab, cov nqi tsim khoom ntawm polycrystalline silicon wafers kuj yog siab vim tias polycrystalline silicon ingots yog tsim los ntawm kub-melting ingot casting, thaum monocrystalline silicon ingots feem ntau yog tsim los ntawm kev loj hlob qeeb hauv Czochralski ib leeg siv lead ua rauv. uas siv lub zog loj. Tsawg. Xyoo 2021, qhov nruab nrab ntawm cov nqi tsim khoom ntawm monocrystalline silicon wafers yuav yog 0.673 yuan / W, thiab polycrystalline silicon wafers yuav yog 0.66 yuan / W.
Raws li lub thickness ntawm silicon wafer txo qis thiab txoj kab uas hla ntawm lub pob zeb diamond hlau busbar txo, cov zis ntawm silicon rods / ingots ntawm qhov sib npaug ntawm txoj kab uas hla ntawm ib kilogram yuav nce, thiab tus naj npawb ntawm ib tug siv lead ua silicon rods ntawm tib qhov hnyav yuav siab tshaj qhov ntawd. ntawm polycrystalline silicon ingots. Hais txog lub zog, lub zog siv los ntawm txhua lub silicon wafer txawv raws li hom thiab qhov loj me. Nyob rau hauv 2021, cov zis ntawm p-hom 166 hli loj monocrystalline square tuav yog hais txog 64 daim ib kilogram, thiab cov zis ntawm polycrystalline square ingots yog hais txog 59 daim. Ntawm cov p-hom ib leeg siv lead ua silicon wafers, qhov tso zis ntawm 158.75mm loj monocrystalline square rods yog hais txog 70 pieces ib kilogram, cov zis ntawm p-hom 182mm loj ib qho siv lead ua square rods yog hais txog 53 pieces ib kilogram, thiab cov zis ntawm p. -type 210mm loj ib qho siv lead ua rods ib kilogram yog hais txog 53 daim. Cov zis ntawm lub square bar yog hais txog 40 pieces. Los ntawm 2022 mus rau 2030, qhov nruam thinning ntawm silicon wafers yuav undoubtedly ua rau ib tug ntau ntawm silicon rods / ingots ntawm tib lub ntim. Cov kab me me ntawm lub pob zeb diamond hlau busbar thiab nruab nrab particle loj kuj yuav pab txo cov kev poob qis, yog li ua kom cov wafers tsim. kom muaj nuj nqis. Nws yog kwv yees tias nyob rau hauv 2025 thiab 2030, cov zis ntawm p-hom 166 hli loj monocrystalline square rods yog hais txog 71 thiab 78 pieces ib kilogram, thiab cov zis ntawm polycrystalline square ingots yog hais txog 62 thiab 62 daim, uas yog vim lub khw tsis tshua muaj. kev sib koom ntawm polycrystalline silicon wafers Nws yog ib qho nyuaj rau ua rau muaj kev vam meej hauv technology. Muaj qhov sib txawv ntawm lub zog ntawm ntau hom thiab qhov ntau thiab tsawg ntawm silicon wafers. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv tshaj tawm rau qhov nruab nrab lub zog ntawm 158.75mm silicon wafers yog hais txog 5.8W / thooj, qhov nruab nrab lub zog ntawm 166mm loj silicon wafers yog li 6.25W / thooj, thiab nruab nrab lub zog ntawm 182mm silicon wafers yog li 6.25W / thooj. . Lub zog nruab nrab ntawm qhov loj me silicon wafer yog hais txog 7.49W / thooj, thiab lub zog nruab nrab ntawm 210mm silicon wafer yog li 10W / thooj.
Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, silicon wafers tau maj mam tsim nyob rau hauv cov kev taw qhia ntawm qhov loj me, thiab qhov loj me yog qhov tsim nyog rau kev nce lub zog ntawm ib nti, yog li diluting cov nqi tsis yog silicon ntawm cov hlwb. Txawm li cas los xij, kev hloov kho me me ntawm silicon wafers kuj yuav tsum tau xav txog kev sib txuam ntawm cov dej ntws thiab cov dej ntws thiab cov teeb meem kev teeb tsa, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov teeb meem tam sim no. Tam sim no, muaj ob lub chaw pw hauv khw hais txog kev txhim kho yav tom ntej ntawm silicon wafer loj, uas yog 182mm loj thiab 210mm loj. Lub tswv yim ntawm 182mm feem ntau yog los ntawm kev xav ntawm ntsug kev lag luam kev sib koom ua ke, raws li kev xav txog kev teeb tsa thiab kev thauj mus los ntawm cov cell photovoltaic, lub zog thiab kev ua haujlwm ntawm cov qauv, thiab kev sib koom ua ke ntawm cov dej ntws thiab cov dej ntws; thaum 210mm feem ntau yog los ntawm kev xaav ntawm cov nqi tsim khoom thiab cov nqi kaw lus. Cov zis ntawm 210mm silicon wafers tau nce ntau dua 15% hauv cov txheej txheem ntawm lub cub tawg ib leeg, cov nqi hluav taws xob qis qis tau raug txo los ntawm 0.02 yuan / W, thiab tag nrho cov nqi hluav taws xob tsim hluav taws xob tau txo los ntawm 0.1 yuan / W. Hauv ob peb xyoos tom ntej no, nws xav tias silicon wafers nrog qhov loj me hauv qab 166mm yuav maj mam tshem tawm; cov teeb meem sab saud thiab qis qis ntawm 210mm silicon wafers yuav maj mam daws tau zoo, thiab tus nqi yuav dhau los ua qhov tseem ceeb tshaj qhov cuam tshuam rau kev nqis peev thiab kev tsim khoom lag luam. Yog li ntawd, kev lag luam feem ntawm 210mm silicon wafers yuav nce. Tsis tu ncua; 182mm silicon wafer yuav dhau los ua qhov loj me hauv kev lag luam los ntawm kev tsim txiaj ntawm nws qhov zoo hauv kev sib xyaw ua ke, tab sis nrog kev txhim kho ntawm 210mm silicon wafer daim ntawv thov thev naus laus zis, 182mm yuav muab txoj hauv kev rau nws. Tsis tas li ntawd, nws yog ib qho nyuaj rau qhov loj-loj silicon wafers tau dav siv nyob rau hauv kev ua lag luam nyob rau hauv ob peb xyoos tom ntej no, vim hais tias tus nqi zog thiab kev pheej hmoo ntawm installation ntawm loj-loj silicon wafers yuav loj heev, uas yog ib qho nyuaj rau offset los ntawm lub sij hawm. txuag nyob rau hauv cov nqi tsim khoom thiab cov nqi system. . Nyob rau hauv 2021, silicon wafer qhov ntau thiab tsawg ntawm kev ua lag luam suav nrog 156.75mm, 157mm, 158.75mm, 166mm, 182mm, 210mm, thiab lwm yam. Ntawm lawv, qhov loj ntawm 158.75mm thiab 166mm suav txog 50% ntawm 75 hli tag nrho, thiab qhov loj me. txo mus rau 5%, uas yuav maj mam hloov yav tom ntej; 166mm yog qhov loj tshaj plaws kev daws teeb meem uas tuaj yeem hloov kho rau cov kab hluav taws xob uas twb muaj lawm, uas yuav yog qhov loj tshaj plaws hauv ob xyoos dhau los. Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev hloov pauv loj, nws xav tias kev lag luam feem yuav tsawg dua 2% hauv 2030; Qhov sib xyaw ua ke ntawm 182mm thiab 210mm yuav suav txog 45% hauv 2021, thiab kev lag luam sib koom yuav nce sai sai yav tom ntej. Nws cia siab tias tag nrho cov lag luam sib koom hauv 2030 yuav dhau 98%.
Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, kev lag luam sib koom ntawm monocrystalline silicon tau nce ntxiv, thiab nws tau tuav txoj haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv kev ua lag luam. Los ntawm 2012 txog 2021, qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm monocrystalline silicon tau nce los ntawm tsawg dua 20% mus rau 93.3%, ib qho kev nce ntxiv. Hauv xyoo 2018, silicon wafers ntawm kev ua lag luam feem ntau yog polycrystalline silicon wafers, suav txog ntau dua 50%. Qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb yog vim li cas qhov kev ua tau zoo ntawm monocrystalline silicon wafers tsis tuaj yeem npog cov nqi tsis zoo. Txij li xyoo 2019, raws li kev hloov pauv ntawm cov duab hluav taws xob ntawm monocrystalline silicon wafers tau nce ntau dua li ntawm polycrystalline silicon wafers, thiab cov nqi tsim khoom ntawm monocrystalline silicon wafers tau txuas ntxiv mus poob nrog kev vam meej, kev lag luam feem ntawm monocrystalline silicon wafers tau nce ntxiv, dhau los ua cov khoom lag luam. lub ntsiab hauv kev ua lag luam. khoom. Nws cia siab tias qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm monocrystalline silicon wafers yuav ncav cuag li 96% hauv 2025, thiab kev lag luam feem ntawm monocrystalline silicon wafers yuav ncav cuag 97.7% hauv 2030.
1.3. Cov roj teeb: PERC roj teeb ua lag luam, thiab kev txhim kho ntawm n-hom roj teeb thawb cov khoom zoo
Lub midstream txuas ntawm photovoltaic kev lag luam saw muaj xws li photovoltaic cell thiab photovoltaic cell modules. Kev ua cov silicon wafers rau hauv cov hlwb yog cov kauj ruam tseem ceeb tshaj plaws hauv kev paub txog kev hloov pauv photoelectric. Nws yuav siv li ntawm xya kauj ruam los ua cov txheej txheem ntawm tes los ntawm silicon wafer. Ua ntej, muab cov silicon wafer rau hauv hydrofluoric acid los tsim cov pyramid zoo li suede qauv ntawm nws qhov chaw, yog li txo qhov kev xav ntawm lub hnub ci thiab nce lub teeb nqus; Qhov thib ob yog Phosphorus yog diffused nyob rau saum npoo ntawm ib sab ntawm silicon wafer los ua ib qho kev sib tshuam PN, thiab nws qhov zoo cuam tshuam ncaj qha rau kev ua haujlwm ntawm tes; qhov thib peb yog tshem tawm PN hlws ris tsim nyob rau sab ntawm silicon wafer thaum lub sij hawm diffusion theem los tiv thaiv luv luv Circuit Court ntawm tes; Ib txheej ntawm silicon nitride zaj duab xis yog coated nyob rau sab uas PN hlws ris yog tsim los txo lub teeb pom kev zoo thiab tib lub sij hawm nce efficiency; qhov thib tsib yog luam cov hlau electrodes nyob rau pem hauv ntej thiab sab nraum qab ntawm silicon wafer los sau cov neeg nqa khoom tsawg uas tsim los ntawm photovoltaics; Lub Circuit Court luam tawm nyob rau hauv lub tshuab luam ntawv theem yog sintered thiab tsim, thiab nws yog integrated nrog silicon wafer, uas yog, lub cell; Thaum kawg, cov hlwb uas muaj txiaj ntsig sib txawv tau muab cais tawm.
Crystalline silicon cells feem ntau yog ua nrog silicon wafers ua substrates, thiab tuaj yeem muab faib ua p-type cells thiab n-type cells raws li hom silicon wafers. Ntawm lawv, n-hom hlwb muaj kev hloov pauv ntau dua thiab tau maj mam hloov p-hom hlwb hauv xyoo tas los no. P-type silicon wafers yog tsim los ntawm doping silicon nrog boron, thiab n-hom silicon wafers yog ua los ntawm phosphorus. Yog li ntawd, qhov concentration ntawm boron nyob rau hauv n-hom silicon wafer yog qis dua, yog li inhibiting kev sib raug zoo ntawm boron-oxygen complexes, txhim kho cov haiv neeg tsawg lub neej ntawm cov khoom silicon, thiab nyob rau tib lub sij hawm, tsis muaj yees duab induced attenuation. hauv roj teeb. Tsis tas li ntawd, cov neeg nqa khoom nruab nrab ntawm n-hom yog qhov, p-hom minority carriers yog cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, thiab cov cuab yeej cuam tshuam ntawm feem ntau impurity atoms rau qhov yog me dua li ntawm electrons. Yog li ntawd, cov neeg nqa khoom tsawg lub neej ntawm n-hom cell yog siab dua thiab qhov hloov pauv photoelectric ntau dua. Raws li kev soj ntsuam cov ntaub ntawv, qhov kev txwv sab sauv ntawm kev hloov pauv ntawm p-hom hlwb yog 24.5%, thiab kev hloov pauv ntawm n-hom hlwb yog mus txog 28.7%, yog li n-hom hlwb sawv cev rau txoj kev loj hlob ntawm kev siv tshuab yav tom ntej. Xyoo 2021, n-hom hlwb (tsuas yog suav nrog cov hlwb heterojunction thiab TOPCon hlwb) muaj tus nqi siab, thiab qhov ntsuas ntawm cov khoom loj tseem tsawg. Kev lag luam tam sim no yog kwv yees li 3%, uas yog qhov pib zoo ib yam li xyoo 2020.
Xyoo 2021, kev hloov pauv kev ua haujlwm ntawm n-hom hlwb yuav txhim kho tau zoo, thiab nws cia siab tias yuav muaj chaw ntxiv rau kev ua haujlwm thev naus laus zis hauv tsib xyoos tom ntej. Hauv 2021, qhov loj-loj ntau lawm ntawm p-hom monocrystalline hlwb yuav siv PERC thev naus laus zis, thiab qhov kev hloov pauv nruab nrab yuav ncav cuag 23.1%, qhov nce ntawm 0.3 feem pua cov ntsiab lus piv nrog 2020; kev hloov dua siab tshiab ntawm polycrystalline dub silicon hlwb siv PERC thev naus laus zis yuav ncav cuag 21.0%, piv nrog 2020. Txhua xyoo nce ntawm 0.2 feem pua cov ntsiab lus; cov pa polycrystalline dub silicon cell efficiency txhim kho tsis muaj zog, kev hloov dua siab tshiab hauv xyoo 2021 yuav yog li ntawm 19.5%, tsuas yog 0.1 feem pua ntawm cov ntsiab lus siab dua, thiab qhov chaw txhim kho yav tom ntej yog txwv; qhov nruab nrab conversion efficiency ntawm ingot monocrystalline PERC hlwb yog 22.4%, uas yog 0.7 feem pua cov ntsiab lus qis dua li ntawm monocrystalline PERC hlwb; qhov nruab nrab conversion efficiency ntawm n-hom TOPCon hlwb nce mus txog 24%, thiab qhov nruab nrab conversion efficiency ntawm heterojunction hlwb mus txog 24.2%, ob qho tib si tau zoo heev txhim kho piv nrog 2020, thiab qhov nruab nrab conversion efficiency ntawm IBC hlwb mus txog 24.2%. Nrog rau kev txhim kho thev naus laus zis yav tom ntej, roj teeb thev naus laus zis xws li TBC thiab HBC kuj tseem tuaj yeem ua tiav mus ntxiv. Nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej, nrog kev txo cov nqi tsim khoom thiab kev txhim kho cov txiaj ntsig, n-hom roj teeb yuav yog ib qho ntawm cov lus qhia tseem ceeb ntawm kev siv roj teeb.
Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm txoj kev siv roj teeb, qhov hloov tshiab ntawm cov roj teeb thev naus laus zis tau dhau los ntawm BSF, PERC, TOPCon raws li kev txhim kho PERC, thiab HJT, cov thev naus laus zis tshiab uas cuam tshuam PERC; TOPCon tuaj yeem txuas ntxiv nrog IBC los ua TBC, thiab HJT tuaj yeem ua ke nrog IBC los ua HBC. P-hom monocrystalline hlwb feem ntau siv PERC thev naus laus zis, p-hom polycrystalline hlwb suav nrog polycrystalline black silicon cells thiab ingot monocrystalline hlwb, tom kawg yog hais txog kev sib ntxiv ntawm monocrystalline noob muaju rau hauv paus ntawm cov txheej txheem polycrystalline ingot, kev taw qhia solidification Tom qab ntawd, square silicon ingot yog tsim, thiab ib tug silicon wafer tov nrog ib tug siv lead ua thiab polycrystalline yog tsim los ntawm ib tug series ntawm cov txheej txheem. Vim tias nws tseem ceeb siv txoj kev npaj polycrystalline, nws tau suav nrog hauv pawg p-hom polycrystalline hlwb. N-hom hlwb feem ntau suav nrog TOPCon monocrystalline hlwb, HJT monocrystalline hlwb thiab IBC monocrystalline hlwb. Xyoo 2021, cov kab tsim khoom loj tshiab tseem yuav raug tswj hwm los ntawm PERC cell ntau lawm kab, thiab kev lag luam feem ntawm PERC hlwb yuav nce ntxiv mus rau 91.2%. Raws li cov khoom xav tau rau cov haujlwm sab nraum zoov thiab hauv tsev tau tsom mus rau cov khoom siv tau zoo, kev lag luam feem ntawm BSF roj teeb yuav poob ntawm 8.8% mus rau 5% hauv 2021.
1.4. Modules: Tus nqi ntawm cov hlwb suav rau qhov tseem ceeb, thiab lub zog ntawm cov modules nyob ntawm lub hlwb
Cov kauj ruam ntawm cov khoom siv photovoltaic feem ntau suav nrog kev sib txuas ntawm tes thiab lamination, thiab cov cell account rau ib feem tseem ceeb ntawm tag nrho cov nqi ntawm cov module. Txij li tam sim no thiab qhov hluav taws xob ntawm ib lub xov tooj me me heev, cov hlwb yuav tsum tau sib txuas los ntawm cov npav npav. Ntawm no, lawv tau txuas nrog hauv cov koob kom nce qhov voltage, thiab tom qab ntawd txuas nrog rau qhov sib npaug kom tau txais qhov siab tam sim no, thiab tom qab ntawd cov iav photovoltaic, EVA lossis POE, roj teeb Sheet, EVA lossis POE, cov ntawv rov qab raug kaw thiab kub nias rau hauv ib qho kev txiav txim. , thiab thaum kawg tiv thaiv los ntawm txhuas ncej thiab silicone sealing ntug. Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm cov khoom tsim tawm cov nqi sib xyaw, cov khoom siv tus nqi suav txog 75%, tuav txoj haujlwm tseem ceeb, ua raws li cov nqi tsim khoom, tus nqi ua haujlwm thiab tus nqi zog. Tus nqi ntawm cov ntaub ntawv yog coj los ntawm tus nqi ntawm cov hlwb. Raws li kev tshaj tawm los ntawm ntau lub tuam txhab, cov hlwb suav txog li 2/3 ntawm tag nrho cov nqi ntawm photovoltaic modules.
Photovoltaic modules feem ntau muab faib raws li hom ntawm tes, qhov loj me, thiab qhov ntau. Muaj qhov sib txawv ntawm lub zog ntawm cov qauv sib txawv, tab sis lawv txhua tus nyob rau theem nce. Lub hwj chim yog qhov taw qhia tseem ceeb ntawm photovoltaic modules, sawv cev rau lub module lub peev xwm los hloov lub hnub ci zog rau hauv hluav taws xob. Nws tuaj yeem pom los ntawm lub zog txheeb cais ntawm ntau hom photovoltaic modules uas thaum qhov loj thiab tus naj npawb ntawm cov hlwb hauv module yog tib yam, lub zog ntawm lub module yog n-hom ib leeg siv lead ua> p-hom ib leeg siv lead ua> polycrystalline; Qhov loj dua qhov loj thiab ntau, qhov ntau dua lub zog ntawm lub module; rau TOPCon ib leeg siv lead ua modules thiab heterojunction modules ntawm tib lub ntsiab lus, lub zog ntawm lub tom kawg yog ntau dua li qhov qub. Raws li CPIA kev kwv yees, module fais fab yuav nce 5-10W ib xyoo nyob rau ob peb xyoos tom ntej no. Tsis tas li ntawd, kev ntim khoom module yuav ua rau qee lub zog poob, feem ntau suav nrog optical poob thiab hluav taws xob poob. Lub qub yog tshwm sim los ntawm kev xa tawm thiab kho qhov muag tsis sib haum ntawm cov khoom ntim xws li photovoltaic iav thiab EVA, thiab qhov kawg yog hais txog kev siv lub hnub ci hauv cov koob. Lub Circuit Court poob los ntawm qhov tsis kam ntawm vuam ribbon thiab lub tsheb npav nws tus kheej, thiab tam sim no mismatch poob los ntawm kev sib txuas ntawm cov hlwb, tag nrho cov hluav taws xob poob ntawm ob tus account rau txog 8%.
1.5. Photovoltaic ntsia muaj peev xwm: Cov kev cai ntawm ntau lub teb chaws tau pom tseeb tau tsav, thiab muaj qhov chaw loj rau lub peev xwm tshiab rau yav tom ntej
Lub ntiaj teb tau pib mus txog qhov kev pom zoo ntawm kev xa tawm xoom xoom raws li lub hom phiaj tiv thaiv ib puag ncig, thiab kev lag luam ntawm cov phiaj xwm photovoltaic tau maj mam tshwm sim. Lub teb chaws tab tom tshawb nrhiav kev txhim kho ntawm kev tsim hluav taws xob tauj dua tshiab. Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, cov teb chaws thoob ntiaj teb tau cog lus los txo cov pa roj carbon monoxide. Feem ntau ntawm cov tsev cog khoom loj emitters tau tsim cov hom phiaj siv hluav taws xob txuas ntxiv dua tshiab, thiab lub peev xwm ntawm lub zog tauj dua tshiab yog qhov loj heev. Raws li 1.5 ℃ kub tswj lub hom phiaj, IRENA kwv yees hais tias lub ntiaj teb no ntsia lub zog tauj dua tshiab muaj peev xwm yuav ncav cuag 10.8TW nyob rau hauv 2030. Tsis tas li ntawd, raws li WOODMac cov ntaub ntawv, theem nqi hluav taws xob (LCOE) ntawm lub hnub ci hluav taws xob tsim nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj, Is Nrias teb, Tebchaws Meskas thiab lwm lub tebchaws twb tau qis dua qhov pheej yig tshaj plaws fossil zog, thiab yuav poob ntxiv rau yav tom ntej. Kev nce qib ntawm cov cai hauv ntau lub teb chaws thiab kev lag luam ntawm photovoltaic fais fab tuag tau ua rau muaj kev nce ntxiv hauv kev tsim cov peev txheej ntawm photovoltaics hauv ntiaj teb thiab Tuam Tshoj hauv xyoo tas los no. Los ntawm 2012 mus rau 2021, lub peev xwm tsim tau ntawm photovoltaics nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no yuav nce los ntawm 104.3GW mus rau 849.5GW, thiab cov cumulative ntsia muaj peev xwm ntawm photovoltaics nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj yuav nce los ntawm 6.7GW mus rau 307GW, nce ntau tshaj 44 zaug. Tsis tas li ntawd, Tuam Tshoj tus tshiab tsim photovoltaic peev nyiaj rau ntau dua 20% ntawm lub ntiaj teb tag nrho cov peev txheej. Xyoo 2021, Tuam Tshoj lub peev xwm photovoltaic tshiab yog 53GW, suav txog li 40% ntawm lub ntiaj teb lub peev xwm tshiab. Qhov no feem ntau yog vim muaj ntau thiab tsis sib xws ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob nyob hauv Suav teb, kev txhim kho zoo nyob rau sab saud thiab qis qis, thiab kev txhawb nqa muaj zog ntawm lub teb chaws txoj cai. Lub sijhawm no, Tuam Tshoj tau ua lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv kev tsim hluav taws xob photovoltaic, thiab cov peev txheej tsim tau suav nrog tsawg dua 6.5%. dhia mus rau 36.14%.
Raws li kev soj ntsuam saum toj no, CPIA tau muab kev kwv yees rau kev txhim kho tshiab photovoltaic los ntawm 2022 txog 2030 thoob plaws ntiaj teb. Nws yog kwv yees tias nyob rau hauv ob qho tib si optimistic thiab conservative tej yam kev mob, lub ntiaj teb no tshiab ntsia muaj peev xwm nyob rau hauv 2030 yuav yog 366 thiab 315GW feem, thiab tshiab ntsia muaj peev xwm ntawm Tuam Tshoj yuav yog 128., 105GW. Hauv qab no peb yuav kwv yees qhov kev thov rau polysilicon raws li qhov ntsuas ntawm lub peev xwm tshiab tsim txhua xyoo.
1.6. Xav tau kev kwv yees ntawm polysilicon rau kev siv photovoltaic
Los ntawm 2022 mus rau 2030, raws li CPIA qhov kev kwv yees rau lub ntiaj teb no tshiab nce PV installation nyob rau hauv ob qho tib si optimistic thiab conservative scenarios, qhov kev thov rau polysilicon rau PV daim ntawv thov yuav kwv yees. Cells yog cov kauj ruam tseem ceeb kom paub txog kev hloov pauv ntawm photoelectric, thiab silicon wafers yog cov khoom siv raw ntawm cov hlwb thiab cov dej ntws ncaj qha ntawm polysilicon, yog li nws yog ib feem tseem ceeb ntawm polysilicon thov kev kwv yees. Qhov hnyav ntawm daim ib kilogram ntawm silicon rods thiab ingots tuaj yeem xam los ntawm tus naj npawb ntawm daim ib kilogram thiab kev lag luam sib faib ntawm silicon rods thiab ingots. Tom qab ntawd, raws li lub zog thiab kev ua lag luam sib koom ntawm silicon wafers ntawm ntau qhov sib txawv, lub zog hnyav ntawm silicon wafers tuaj yeem tau txais, thiab tom qab ntawd tus naj npawb ntawm silicon wafers yuav tsum tau kwv yees raws li lub peev xwm photovoltaic tshiab. Tom ntej no, qhov hnyav ntawm silicon rods thiab ingots yuav tsum tau raws li qhov kev sib raug zoo ntawm cov naj npawb ntawm silicon wafers thiab cov luj ntawm silicon rods thiab silicon ingots ib kilogram. Ntxiv nrog rau qhov hnyav silicon noj ntawm silicon rods / silicon ingots, qhov kev thov rau polysilicon rau lub peev xwm photovoltaic tshiab tuaj yeem tau txais thaum kawg. Raws li cov txiaj ntsig kev kwv yees, lub ntiaj teb kev thov rau polysilicon rau kev teeb tsa photovoltaic tshiab hauv tsib xyoos dhau los yuav nce ntxiv, nce siab hauv 2027, thiab tom qab ntawd poob qis me ntsis hauv peb lub xyoos tom ntej. Nws tau kwv yees tias nyob rau hauv qhov kev cia siab thiab kev saib xyuas hauv 2025, lub ntiaj teb kev thov txhua xyoo rau polysilicon rau kev teeb tsa photovoltaic yuav yog 1,108,900 tons thiab 907,800 tons raws li, thiab lub ntiaj teb kev thov rau polysilicon rau photovoltaic daim ntawv thov nyob rau hauv 2030 yuav yog 1,042,100 tons ntawm optimistic thiab conservative tej yam kev mob. . , 896,900 t. Raws li Suav tebKev faib ua feem ntawm lub ntiaj teb photovoltaic ntsia muaj peev xwm,Tuam Tshoj qhov kev thov rau polysilicon rau photovoltaic siv nyob rau hauv 2025yuav tsum yog 369,600 tons thiab 302,600 tons raws li nyob rau hauv optimistic thiab conservative tej yam kev mob, thiab 739,300 tons thiab 605,200 tons txawv teb chaws feem.
2, Semiconductor kawg thov: Qhov ntsuas me dua li qhov xav tau hauv thaj chaw photovoltaic, thiab kev loj hlob yav tom ntej tuaj yeem xav tau
Ntxiv nrog rau kev ua cov cell photovoltaic, polysilicon kuj tseem siv tau los ua cov khoom siv raw rau kev ua cov chips thiab siv rau hauv cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, uas tuaj yeem faib rau hauv kev tsim tsheb, kev lag luam hluav taws xob, kev sib txuas lus hluav taws xob, khoom siv hauv tsev thiab lwm yam haujlwm. Cov txheej txheem los ntawm polysilicon rau nti yog muab faib ua peb kauj ruam. Ua ntej, cov polysilicon yog kos rau hauv monocrystalline silicon ingots, thiab ces txiav mus rau hauv nyias silicon wafers. Silicon wafers yog tsim los ntawm kev sib tsoo, chamfering thiab polishing. , uas yog cov khoom siv raw khoom ntawm lub Hoobkas semiconductor. Thaum kawg, cov silicon wafer raug txiav thiab laser engraved rau hauv ntau yam qauv Circuit Court los ua cov khoom nti nrog qee yam ntxwv. Feem ntau silicon wafers feem ntau suav nrog polished wafers, epitaxial wafers thiab SOI wafers. Polished wafer yog cov khoom siv chips nrog siab flatness tau los ntawm polishing silicon wafer kom tshem tawm cov txheej puas ntawm qhov chaw, uas tuaj yeem siv ncaj qha los ua chips, epitaxial wafers thiab SOI silicon wafers. Epitaxial wafers tau txais los ntawm epitaxial kev loj hlob ntawm polished wafers, thaum SOI silicon wafers yog fabricated los ntawm kev sib txuas los yog ion implantation ntawm polished wafer substrates, thiab cov txheej txheem kev npaj yog kuj nyuaj.
Los ntawm kev thov rau polysilicon ntawm sab semiconductor hauv 2021, suav nrog lub koom haum kev kwv yees ntawm kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam semiconductor nyob rau ob peb xyoos tom ntej no, qhov kev thov rau polysilicon hauv semiconductor teb los ntawm 2022 txog 2025 tuaj yeem kwv yees kwv yees. Xyoo 2021, lub ntiaj teb hluav taws xob-qib polysilicon ntau lawm yuav suav txog li 6% ntawm tag nrho cov khoom siv polysilicon, thiab hnub ci-qib polysilicon thiab granular silicon yuav suav txog li 94%. Feem ntau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob-qib polysilicon yog siv nyob rau hauv semiconductor teb, thiab lwm yam polysilicon yog siv nyob rau hauv kev lag luam photovoltaic. . Yog li, nws tuaj yeem xav tias tus nqi ntawm polysilicon siv hauv kev lag luam semiconductor xyoo 2021 yog li ntawm 37,000 tons. Tsis tas li ntawd, raws li kev loj hlob yav tom ntej ntawm kev lag luam semiconductor tau kwv yees los ntawm FortuneBusiness Insights, qhov kev thov rau polysilicon rau kev siv semiconductor yuav nce ntawm tus nqi txhua xyoo ntawm 8.6% los ntawm 2022 txog 2025. Nws kwv yees tias nyob rau hauv 2025, qhov kev thov rau polysilicon nyob rau hauv lub semiconductor teb yuav nyob ib ncig ntawm 51,500 tons. (Cov ntaub ntawv qhia: Future Think Tank)
3, Polysilicon ntshuam thiab xa tawm: ntshuam deb tshaj li kev xa tawm, nrog lub teb chaws Yelemees thiab Malaysia suav nrog ntau dua
Xyoo 2021, kwv yees li 18.63% ntawm Tuam Tshoj cov khoom siv polysilicon yuav los ntawm kev xa tawm, thiab qhov ntsuas ntawm kev xa tawm ntau tshaj qhov ntsuas ntawm kev xa tawm. Los ntawm 2017 txog 2021, cov qauv ntshuam thiab xa tawm ntawm polysilicon yog tus thawj coj los ntawm kev xa khoom, uas tej zaum yuav yog vim qhov kev thov qis qis rau kev lag luam photovoltaic uas tau tsim sai heev nyob rau xyoo tas los no, thiab nws qhov kev thov rau polysilicon suav nrog ntau dua 94% ntawm cov khoom lag luam. tag nrho kev thov; Tsis tas li ntawd, lub tuam txhab tseem tsis tau paub txog kev tsim cov thev naus laus zis ntawm high-purity hluav taws xob-qib polysilicon, yog li qee qhov polysilicon xav tau los ntawm kev lag luam sib xyaw ua ke tseem xav tau kev cia siab rau kev xa khoom. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv ntawm Silicon Kev Lag Luam Tuam Txhab, cov ntim ntim tau txuas ntxiv poob rau xyoo 2019 thiab 2020. Qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb rau kev poob ntawm polysilicon imports hauv 2019 yog qhov muaj peev xwm ntau lawm, uas tau nce los ntawm 388,000 tons hauv 2018 txog 452,000 tons. nyob rau hauv 2019. Tib lub sijhawm, OCI, REC, HANWHA Qee lub tuam txhab txawv teb chaws, xws li qee lub tuam txhab txawv teb chaws, tau thim tawm ntawm kev lag luam polysilicon vim poob, yog li cov ntshuam dependence ntawm polysilicon yog qis dua; Txawm hais tias muaj peev xwm ntau lawm tsis tau nce ntxiv hauv 2020, qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev sib kis tau ua rau qeeb hauv kev tsim kho cov phiaj xwm photovoltaic, thiab tus naj npawb ntawm polysilicon xaj tau poob rau tib lub sijhawm. Xyoo 2021, Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam photovoltaic yuav loj hlob sai, thiab qhov pom tseeb ntawm kev siv polysilicon yuav ncav cuag 613,000 tons, tsav lub ntim ntim kom rov zoo. Nyob rau hauv tsib lub xyoos dhau los, Tuam Tshoj tus net polysilicon ntshuam ntim tau nyob nruab nrab ntawm 90,000 thiab 140,000 tons, ntawm uas muaj txog 103,800 tons nyob rau hauv 2021. Nws cia siab tias Tuam Tshoj tus net polysilicon ntshuam ntim yuav nyob ib ncig ntawm 100,000 tons ib xyoos twg los ntawm 2025 txog 2021.
Tuam Tshoj cov khoom siv polysilicon feem ntau yog los ntawm lub teb chaws Yelemees, Malaysia, Nyiv thiab Taiwan, Tuam Tshoj, thiab tag nrho cov kev xa tawm los ntawm plaub lub tebchaws no yuav suav txog 90.51% hauv 2021. Txog 45% ntawm Tuam Tshoj cov khoom siv polysilicon tuaj ntawm lub teb chaws Yelemees, 26% los ntawm Malaysia, 13.5% los ntawm Nyiv, thiab 6% los ntawm Taiwan. Lub teb chaws Yelemees muaj lub ntiaj teb polysilicon loj heev WACKER, uas yog qhov loj tshaj plaws ntawm polysilicon txawv teb chaws, suav txog 12.7% ntawm tag nrho lub ntiaj teb no muaj peev xwm tsim nyob rau hauv 2021; Malaysia muaj ntau cov kab ntau lawm polysilicon los ntawm South Kauslim lub tuam txhab OCI, uas yog los ntawm thawj cov kab ntau lawm hauv Malaysia ntawm TOKUYAMA, ib lub tuam txhab Japanese tau txais los ntawm OCI. Muaj cov chaw ua haujlwm thiab qee qhov chaw ua haujlwm uas OCI tau tsiv los ntawm Kaus Lim Qab Teb mus rau Malaysia. Yog vim li cas rau qhov kev hloov chaw yog Malaysia muab chaw ua haujlwm pub dawb thiab tus nqi hluav taws xob yog ib feem peb qis dua li ntawm Kaus Lim Qab Teb; Nyiv thiab Taiwan, Tuam Tshoj muaj TOKUYAMA, GET thiab lwm lub tuam txhab, uas tuav ib feem loj ntawm polysilicon ntau lawm. ib qhov chaw. Nyob rau hauv 2021, cov zis polysilicon yuav yog 492,000 tons, uas lub tshiab mounted photovoltaic muaj peev xwm thiab chip ntau lawm thov yuav 206,400 tons thiab 1,500 tons raws li, thiab cov seem 284,100 tons yuav siv tsuas yog rau downstream ua thiab xa tawm txawv teb chaws. Nyob rau hauv lub downstream links ntawm polysilicon, silicon wafers, hlwb thiab modules mas yog exported, uas cov export ntawm modules yog tshwj xeeb tshaj yog tseem ceeb. Hauv 2021, 4.64 billion silicon wafers thiab 3.2 billion photovoltaic hlwb tau ua.xa tawmlos ntawm Tuam Tshoj, nrog rau tag nrho cov xa tawm ntawm 22.6GW thiab 10.3GW feem, thiab kev xa tawm ntawm photovoltaic modules yog 98.5GW, nrog tsawg heev imports. Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm export tus nqi muaj pes tsawg leeg, module exports nyob rau hauv 2021 yuav mus txog US $ 24.61 billion, accounting rau 86%, ua raws li silicon wafers thiab roj teeb. Nyob rau hauv 2021, lub ntiaj teb no tso zis ntawm silicon wafers, photovoltaic cell, thiab photovoltaic modules yuav ncav cuag 97.3%, 85.1%, thiab 82.3%, feem. Nws cia siab tias lub ntiaj teb photovoltaic kev lag luam yuav txuas ntxiv mus rau hauv Suav teb nyob rau hauv peb lub xyoos tom ntej no, thiab cov zis thiab export ntim ntawm txhua qhov txuas yuav muaj ntau heev. Yog li, nws tau kwv yees tias txij xyoo 2022 txog 2025, tus nqi ntawm polysilicon siv rau kev ua thiab tsim cov khoom lag luam qis thiab xa tawm txawv teb chaws yuav maj mam nce. Nws yog kwv yees los ntawm kev rho tawm cov khoom lag luam tawm txawv teb chaws los ntawm kev thov polysilicon txawv teb chaws. Nyob rau hauv 2025, polysilicon uas ua los ntawm kev ua cov khoom downstream yuav raug kwv yees xa tawm 583,000 Tons rau txawv teb chaws los ntawm Tuam Tshoj.
4, Summary thiab Outlook
Kev thov thoob ntiaj teb polysilicon feem ntau yog tsom rau hauv thaj chaw photovoltaic, thiab qhov kev thov hauv thaj chaw semiconductor tsis yog qhov kev txiav txim loj. Qhov kev thov rau polysilicon yog tsav los ntawm kev teeb tsa photovoltaic, thiab maj mam xa mus rau polysilicon los ntawm kev sib txuas ntawm photovoltaic modules-cell-wafer, tsim kev thov rau nws. Nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej, nrog rau kev nthuav dav ntawm lub ntiaj teb photovoltaic ntsia muaj peev xwm, qhov kev thov rau polysilicon feem ntau optimistic. Optimistically, Tuam Tshoj thiab txawv teb chaws tshiab nce PV installation ua rau qhov kev thov rau polysilicon nyob rau hauv 2025 yuav yog 36.96GW thiab 73.93GW raws, thiab qhov kev thov nyob rau hauv conservative tej yam kev mob tseem yuav mus txog 30.24GW thiab 60.49GW feem. Xyoo 2021, lub ntiaj teb polysilicon mov thiab kev thov yuav nruj, ua rau cov nqi polysilicon thoob ntiaj teb siab. Qhov xwm txheej no tuaj yeem txuas ntxiv mus txog xyoo 2022, thiab maj mam tig mus rau theem ntawm cov khoom siv xoob tom qab xyoo 2023. Nyob rau ib nrab xyoo 2020, qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev sib kis tau pib tsis muaj zog, thiab kev nthuav dav ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv qab tau ua rau qhov kev thov rau polysilicon, thiab qee lub tuam txhab ua lag luam tau npaj. kom nthuav ntau lawm. Txawm li cas los xij, lub voj voog nthuav dav ntawm ntau dua ib xyoos thiab ib nrab xyoo ua rau muaj peev xwm tsim tawm thaum kawg ntawm 2021 thiab 2022, ua rau 4.24% nce hauv 2021. Muaj qhov sib txawv ntawm 10,000 tons, yog li cov nqi tau nce. ntse. Nws yog kwv yees hais tias nyob rau hauv 2022, nyob rau hauv lub optimistic thiab conservative tej yam kev mob ntawm photovoltaic ntsia muaj peev xwm, cov khoom thiab xav tau kev sib txawv yuav yog -156,500 tons thiab 2,400 tons raws li, thiab tag nrho cov khoom yuav tseem nyob rau hauv ib lub xeev ntawm cov khoom luv luv. Hauv xyoo 2023 thiab dhau mus, cov haujlwm tshiab uas tau pib tsim kho thaum kawg ntawm 2021 thiab thaum ntxov 2022 yuav pib tsim khoom thiab ua tiav kev nce qib hauv kev tsim khoom. Kev xa khoom thiab kev thov yuav maj mam xoob, thiab cov nqi yuav poob qis. Nyob rau hauv kev ua raws, yuav tsum tau them nyiaj mloog mus rau qhov cuam tshuam ntawm Lavxias teb sab-Ukrainian tsov rog nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no lub zog qauv, uas tej zaum yuav hloov lub ntiaj teb no txoj kev npaj rau tshiab mounted photovoltaic muaj peev xwm, uas yuav cuam tshuam qhov kev thov rau polysilicon.
(Cov kab lus no tsuas yog siv rau UrbanMines 'cov neeg siv khoom thiab tsis sawv cev rau cov lus qhia peev)