1, Photovoltaic kawg xav tau: qhov kev thov rau photovoltaic tau txhim kho muaj zog, thiab qhov kev thov rau polysilicon yog thim rov qab raws li kev txhim kho vaj tse
1.1. Polysilicon noj: lub ntiaj tebKev tau ntim ntim tau nce zuj zus, feem ntau yog rau cov photovoltaic lub zog
Kaum xyoo dhau los, lub ntiaj tebpolysiliconTau txuas ntxiv nce ntxiv, thiab Tuam Tshoj cov kev sib txuas tau txuas ntxiv nthuav, coj los ntawm kev lag luam photovoltaic. Txij xyoo 2012 mus rau 2021, lub ntiaj teb polysilicon noj feem ntau qhia txog kev nce qib siab, nce siab los ntawm 237,000 tons txog li ntawm 653,000 tons. Hauv 2018, Tuam Tshoj 531 photovoltaic txoj cai tshiab txoj cai tau qhia, uas kom meej meej txo tus nqi pab them rau photovoltaic lub hwj chim loj. Qhov tshiab nruab cov photovoltic muaj peev xwm poob thaum 18% xyoo-nyob rau-xyoo, thiab kev thov rau polysilicon tau cuam tshuam. Txij li xyoo 2019, lub xeev tau tshaj tawm ntau cov cai los txhawb cov phiaj xwm zaj nkauj laus ntawm photovoltaics. Nrog rau kev loj hlob sai ntawm cov photovoltaic kev lag luam, qhov kev thov rau polysilicon kuj tau nkag mus rau lub sijhawm sai sai. Nyob rau lub sijhawm no, kev faib ua feem ntawm Tuam Tshoj cov Polysilicon tau txais kev noj haus txuas ntxiv, txij li 63.5% hauv 2021, feem ntau yog vim Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam photovoltaic sai sai. Los ntawm cov kev xav ntawm lub ntiaj teb kev siv cov qauv ntawm cov polysilicon nyob rau hauv 202%, ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob muaj txiaj ntsig rau 94%, ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob hauv hluav taws xob uas tuaj yeem siv rau chips nyiaj rau 94%. Qhov sib piv yog 6%, uas qhia tau tias qhov kev thov tam sim no rau polysilicon yog yeej los ntawm photovoltaics. Nws cia siab tias nrog kev ua kom sov ntawm txoj cai siv roj carbon monoxide, qhov kev thov ntawm lub peev xwm photovoltaic yuav ua rau muaj zog dua, thiab kev siv cov polysilicon yuav txuas ntxiv ntxiv.
1.2. Silicon Wafer: Monocrystalline Silicon Wafer offocies lub ntsiab, thiab nruam czochralski thev naus laus zis hloov sai
Qhov ncaj qha downstreream txuas ntawm polysilicon yog silicon wafers, thiab Tuam Tshoj tam sim no dominates lub ntiaj teb sicicon wafer kev lag luam. Txij xyoo 2012 mus rau 2021, lub ntiaj teb thiab Suav silicon wafer ntau lawm thiab tso cai txuas ntxiv ntxiv, thiab cov photovoltaic kev lag luam txuas ntxiv mus boom. Silicon Wafers ua haujlwm txuas li cov xov xwm silicon thiab roj teeb, yog li nws tseem yuav nyiam cov tuam txhab tsim khoom ntau ntxiv rau kev lag luam. Hauv 2021, Suav teb cov chaw tsim khoom silicon tau nthuav davkev tsimLub peev xwm rau 213.5gw tawm, uas tau los ua lub ntiaj teb silicon wafer ntau lawm nce rau 215.4gw. Raws li cov muaj peev xwm uas twb muaj lawm thiab tshiab muaj peev xwm tshaj plaws muaj peev xwm nyob hauv Suav teb, nws cia siab tias txhua xyoo tom ntej Wafer cov kev loj hlob tseem muaj kev tswj hwm txoj haujlwm hauv ntiaj teb no.
Polycrystalline silicon tuaj yeem ua rau hauv polycrystalline silicon kev cuam tshuam lossis monocrystalline silicon pas nrig. Cov txheej txheem ntau lawm ntawm polycrystalline silicon kev noj haus yog suav nrog cov txheej txheem castting thiab ncaj qha melting txheej txheem. Tam sim no, tus hom thib ob yog txoj kev tseem ceeb, thiab cov nqi poob yog yeej khaws cia ntawm 5%. Qhov txheej txheem casting yog tsuas yog kom yaj cov khoom silicon nyob rau hauv Crucible thawj zaug, thiab tom qab ntawd nrum nws hauv lwm preheated crucible rau kev txias. Los ntawm kev tswj tus nqi txias, Polycrystalline silicon Ingot yog nrum los ntawm cov lus qhia thev naus laus zis. Cov txheej txheem kub-melting ntawm kev coj ncaj qha yog tib yam li cov txheej txheem sib txawv, tab sis cov kauj ruam txias tau txawv ntawm txoj kev casting. Txawm hais tias ob txoj kev yog qhov zoo heev nyob rau hauv qhov xwm, ncaj qha melting txoj kev xav tau ib qho zoo, thiab cov polysilicon khoom siv tau yooj yim, thiab cov polysilicon tsim kom muaj kev puas tsuaj, uas tuaj yeem ua rau sab hauv ntawm cov Crystal qhov yuam kev. Nyob rau tam sim no, cov kev lag luam ua lag luam hauv lub hnub ci zog khoom siv los ua polycren txheem sib xws, thiab cov carbon thiab cov pa roj oxy, uas tau tswj hwm qis dua 10ppma thiab 16ppma. Yav tom ntej, kev tsim cov polycrystalline silicon ingots tseem yuav muaj los ntawm kev coj ua ncaj qha, thiab tus nqi poob yuav nyob ib ncig ntawm 5% hauv 5 xyoos.
Kev tsim cov monocrystalline silicon pas nrig feem ntau yog raws Czochralski txoj kev, ntxiv los ntawm txoj kev ncua ntawm ntsug, thiab cov khoom lag luam tsim los ntawm ob txoj kev siv sib txawv. Lub Czochralski txoj kev siv graphite tsis kam rau cov noob crystz crucionic mus rau hauv lub suab quaj tawv, thiab tig lub noob crystal thaum inverting tus crucible. , lub noob qoob loo yog maj mam tsa upded upward, thiab monocrystalline silicon yog tau los ntawm cov txheej txheem ntawm seeding, lub xub pwg, lub xub pwg sib deev, thiab ua tiav. Qhov chaw ntog ntsug yog hais txog kev kho cov khoom siv hluav taws xob siab, thiab dhau ntawm cov hlau hluav taws xob kom qeeb nyob hauv cov pa roj av, thiab tom qab chev tau txav mus, txiv ntseej Recrystallizes los ua ib qho siv lead ua ib leeg. Vim muaj cov txheej txheem ntau lawm, muaj cov sib txawv ntawm cov khoom siv tag nrho cov khoom siv, cov nqi tsim khoom thiab khoom zoo. Ntawm tam sim no, cov khoom tau los ntawm thaj chaw melting muaj siab heev thiab tuaj yeem siv rau kev tsim cov tshuab sictoron rau kev ua ib qho kev ua tiav crystal silicon rau cov nqi qis dua, yog li nws yog txoj kev loj. Xyoo 2021, kev lag luam sib koom ntawm txoj kev ncaj rub yog kwv yees li 85%, thiab nws yuav tsum nce me ntsis rau ob peb xyoos tom ntej no. Cov khw muag khoom lag luam hauv 2025 thiab 2030 tau kwv yees kom muaj 87% thiab 90% feem. Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm District Melting Tib lub tshuab ua lead ua, kev lag luam concentring ntawm lub nroog melting ib crystal silicon yog tus nyob hauv lub ntiaj teb. Qhov Nrhiav Tau), Topsil (Denmark). Nyob rau yav tom ntej, cov zis teev ntawm molten ib crystal silicon yuav tsis nce ntxiv. Qhov laj thawj yog Tuam Tshoj cov thev naus laus zis muaj feem cuam tshuam nrog cov khoom cua kub siab, cov khoom siv cua hlob heev ntawm cov khoom siv cua sov siab thiab cov txheej txheem crystallization. Cov thev naus laus zis ntawm silicon ib lub lead ua ntau txoj kab uas loj yuav tsum tau tshawb xyuas lawv tus kheej.
Czochralski cov qauv tuaj yeem muab faib ua kev tsis tu ncua siv tshuab siv tshuab (CCZ) thiab rov ua Crystal rub thev naus laus zis (RCZ). Tam sim no, cov qauv tseem ceeb hauv kev lag luam yog RCZ, uas yog nyob rau theem kev hloov pauv ntawm RCZ. Tib lub tshuab ua siv siv lub tshuab ua kom rub tawm thiab pub cov kauj ruam ntawm RZC muaj kev ywj siab ntawm txhua lwm yam. Ua ntej txhua tus rub, qhov sib xyaw ua ke siv khov yuav tsum txias thiab muab tshem tawm hauv lub rooj vag chamber, thaum CCZ tuaj yeem pom tau tias pub mis thiab rub tawm thaum rub tawm. RCZ yog tus paub tab, thiab muaj chav me me rau kev txhim kho thev naus laus zis yav tom ntej; Thaum CCZ muaj qhov zoo ntawm kev txo nqi txo qis thiab kev txhim kho zoo, thiab yog nyob rau theem ntawm kev loj hlob sai. Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm tus nqi, piv nrog RCZ, uas siv sijhawm li 8 teev ua ntej ib tus pas nrig tau ua tiav, txo cov nqi Crucible thiab hluav taws xob tau txais los ntawm tshem tawm cov kauj ruam no. Tag nrho cov kev tawm ua kom sov tag nrho yog ntau dua 20% siab dua li RCZ. Tus nqi tsim ntau lawm yog ntau dua 10% qis dua Rcz. Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev ua tau zoo, CCZ tuaj yeem ua tiav daim duab ntawm 8-10 cov Crystal Silicon pas nrig nyob rau hauv lub neej ntawm lub neej (250 teev), thiab kev ua haujlwm ntau ntxiv tuaj yeem nce los ntawm 100-150%. Hais txog qhov zoo, CCZ muaj cov ntsiab lus tsis txaus siab, thiab qeeb dua kev tsim kho ntawm n-hom kev ua tiav ntawm cov siv lead ua ntawm n-hom Crystal Silicon Wafers, uas tseem nyob rau lub sijhawm ntawm kev loj hlob sai. Tam sim no, qee cov tuam txhab Suav tau tshaj tawm tias lawv muaj txoj hauv kev siv CCz, thiab txoj kev ntawm Granrystalline Silicorine Silicorine Silice Silicon-thiab tau pib siv 100% granular silicator. Cov. Yav tom ntej, CCZ yuav yeej hloov Rcz, tab sis nws yuav siv qee cov txheej txheem.
Cov txheej txheem ntau lawm ntawm Monocrystalline Silicon Wafers tau muab faib ua plaub kauj ruam: rub tawm, hlais, tu thiab cais. Qhov tshwm sim ntawm pob zeb diamond xaim txoj kev hlau tau zoo heev txo qis dua cov kev poob qis. Lub Crystal rub cov txheej txheem tau piav qhia saum toj no. Cov txheej txheem Slicing suav nrog kev txiav tawm, zaum, thiab chamfering ua haujlwm. Slicing yog siv lub tshuab slicing los txiav cov kab si hauv silicon rau hauv Silicon Wafers. Kev tu thiab cais yog cov kauj ruam kawg hauv kev tsim cov khoom siv wafers. Lub pob zeb diamond xaim txoj kev pom zoo tau pom tseeb ntawm kev sib sau ua ke hlau xaij hlau xaij hlau, uas yog qhov tseem ceeb siv sijhawm luv luv thiab poob qis. Qhov ceev ntawm pob zeb diamond hlau yog tsib zaug uas ntawm kev txiav tsoos. Piv txwv li, rau ib leeg-tsoos hlau hlau txiav li 10 teev, thiab pob zeb diamond hlau txiav tsuas yog siv li 2 teev. Qhov ploj ntawm pob zeb diamond hlau txiav kuj tseem me me, thiab cov txheej txheem puas tsuaj yog me dua li cov hlau cap hlau txiav, uas yog qhov ua kom zoo rau txiav nyias nyias. Nyob rau hauv xyoo tsis ntev los no, nyob rau hauv kev txiav txim kom txo tau kev poob thiab cov nqi tsim khoom, cov tuam txhab tau tig mus rau pob zeb diamond xaim hluav taws xob cov kab laum yog nce qis thiab qis dua. Xyoo 2021, txoj kab uas hla ntawm lub pob zeb diamond hlau yuav siv rau Monocrystalline Cov hlau pob zeb diamond siv rau cov pob zeb diamond Nws yog kwv yees tias hauv 2025 thiab 2030, lub diameters ntawm pob zeb diamond hlau busbars uas siv los txiav polycrystalline li 51 μm thiab 51 μm, feem. Qhov no yog vim muaj ntau yam tsis xws luag thiab impurities nyob rau hauv polycrystalline silicorine silic silic silicalon wafers, thiab nyias cov xov hlau yog nquag nquag tawg. Yog li ntawd, txoj kab uas hla ntawm pob zeb diamond hlau busbar siv rau polycrystalline lawb tawm cov kab tsib
Tam sim no, Silicon Wafers yog muab faib ua ob hom: polycrystalline silicon wafers thiab monocrystalline silicon wafers. Monocrystalline Silicon Wafers muaj qhov zoo ntawm lub neej ntev ntev thiab muaj kev ua kom muaj kev ua tau zoo hloov pauv tau zoo. Polycrystalline Silicon Wafers yog tsim los ntawm cov muaj lead ua cov qoob loo sib txawv, thaum tib lub Crystal Silicon Wafers silicon li cov ntaub ntawv raw thiab muaj tib lub crystal dav hlau taw qhia. Nyob rau hauv tsos, polycrystalline silicoron wafers thiab ib leeg siv lead ua silicon wafers yog xiav-dub thiab dub-xim av. Txij li ob yog txiav los ntawm polycrystalline silicon ingots thiab monocrystalline silicon pas nrig, ntsig txog, cov duab yog square thiab Qasi-square. Cov kev pabcuam lub neej ntawm polycrystalline silicon wafers thiab monocrystalline silicon wafers yog li 20 xyoo. Yog tias cov qauv ntim tau thiab siv ib puag ncig yog qhov haum, cov kev pabcuam lub neej tuaj yeem ncav cuag ntau tshaj 25 xyoos. Feem ntau hais lus, lub neej ntawm monocrystalline silicon wafers yog me ntsis ntev dua li polycrystalline silicon wafers. Ib qho ntxiv, Monocrystalline Silicon Wafers kuj tseem zoo dua hauv kev ua kom zoo dua qub, thiab cov hlau cuam tshuam ntau dua li cov polycrystalline silicon wafers. Cov nyhuv sib xyaw ua ke ntawm ntau yam ua rau cov neeg muaj hnub nyoog tsawg ntawm ib lub muaju ntau dua li ntawm polycystalline silicon wafers. Li no qhia qhov kom zoo dua ntawm kev hloov zuj zus kev ua tau zoo. Xyoo 2021, qhov siab tshaj plaws kev sib zog ntawm polycrystalline silicon wafers yuav nyob ib ncig ntawm 21%, thiab ntawm monocrystalline Silicon Wafers yuav mus txog 24,2%.
Ntxiv rau lub neej ntev thiab siab hloov dua siab tshiab, Monocrystalline Silicon Wafers kuj muaj qhov zoo dua los txo cov nqi thev, tab sis them nyiaj rau qhov nce ntxiv hauv qhov nce. Cov thinning ntawm Silicon Wafers pab txo cov nqi tsim tsim tau, tab sis cov kev ua yeeb yaj kiab tam sim no tuaj yeem ua tau raws li cov kev xav tau ntawm cov kev xav tau ntawm cov dej hauv qab thiab cov khoom lag luam sib xyaw. Feem ntau, cov tuab ntawm silicon wafers tau txo qis nyob rau hauv polycrystalline silicing ntawm polycrystally loj dua li ntawm monocrystalline Silicon Wafers. Monocrystalline silicon wafers tau muab faib ntxiv ua n-hom silicon wafers, thaum n-hom silicon wafers, siv cov peev nyiaj hauv qab ntxwj thiab HJT roj teeb siv. Xyoo 2021, qhov nruab nrab thickness ntawm polycrystalline silicon wafers yog 178μm, thiab tsis muaj qhov xav tau yav tom ntej yuav tsav lawv mus txuas ntxiv. Yog li ntawd, nws tau kwv yees tias qhov tuab tuab yuav txo qis dua los ntawm 2022, thiab cov tuab yuav nyob ntawm txog 170μm tom qab 2025; Qhov nruab nrab thickness ntawm P-hom monocrystalline silicon wafers yog hais txog li 170μm, thiab 2030. Thiab 2030. 1654m. 135μm.
In addition, the production of polycrystalline silicon wafers consumes more silicon than monocrystalline silicon wafers, but the production steps are relatively simple, which brings cost advantages to polycrystalline silicon wafers. Cov khoom siv polycrrystalline, raws li ib qho khoom siv raw rau polycrystalline silica sificon wafers, uas yog vim muaj kev sib txawv ntawm cov kauj ruam thiab cov kauj ruam ntau lawm ntawm ob. Xyoo 2021, cov silicon tau noj polycrystalline ingot yog 1.10 kg / kg. Nws yuav tsum tau hais tias tsawg peev hauv kev tshawb fawb thiab kev txhim kho yuav ua rau cov kev hloov pauv me me yav tom ntej. Cov silicon tau ntawm rub tus rub pas nrig yog 1.066 kg / kg, thiab muaj ib chav rau kev ua kom zoo. Nws yuav tsum yog 1.05 kg / kg thiab 1.043 kg / kg hauv 2025 thiab 2030, feem. Hauv ib qho kev siv siv lead ua, qhov txo ntawm cov khoom noj uas tsis muaj zog, thiab ua kom pom cov khoom siv los ua kom tiav, thiab ua kom zoo rau kev faib tawm thiab ua haujlwm thev naus laus zis ntawm cov ntaub ntawv silicon. Txawm hais tias Silicon tau noj polycrystalline silicon wafers yog qhov siab dua vim tias polycrystalline ingoTsing, thaum Monocrystalline Rauv hauv Crystal Furicon, uas tau siv zog kuj muaj zog. Tsawg. Xyoo 2021, tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm Monocrystalline Silicon Wafers yuav muaj txog 0.673 yuan / W, thiab ntawm Polycrystalline Silicon Wafers yuav yog 0.66 Yuan / W.
Raws li cov tuab tuab ntawm silicon wafer txo qis thiab cov cheeb tsam ntawm cov ntxaij vab tshaus sib npaug, thiab cov zis ntawm tib lub qhov hnyav Hais txog lub hwj chim, lub zog siv los ntawm txhua tus waficon wafer sib txawv raws li hom thiab loj. Xyoo 2021, cov zis ntawm P-Hom 166mm thiab cov xwm txheej ntawm polycrrystalline square agots yog li 59 daim. Ntawm cov P-hom Crystal Silicon Wafers, cov zis ntawm P-Hom Crystal Square Qaum yog li 53 daim muaj li 53 daim. Cov zis ntawm lub bar square yog hais txog 40 daim. Txij li 2022 mus rau 2030, kev txuas ntxiv ua plawg ntawm silicon wafers yuav undoubtedly ua rau nce ntxiv nyob rau hauv cov xov tooj ntawm silicon pas nrig / ingots ntawm tib lub ntim. Cov cheeb tsam me me ntawm pob zeb diamond hlau busbar thiab nruab nrab qhov loj me me yuav pab txo cov kev poob, yog li nce tus naj npawb ntawm Wafers tsim tawm. kom muaj nuj nqis. Nws yog kwv yees tias hauv 2025 thiab 2030, cov zis ntawm P-hom 166mm thiab 78 pieces ib phaus Muaj ntau yam sib txawv ntawm cov ntau hom thiab ntau thiab tsawg ntawm cov silicon wafers. Raws li cov ntawv tshaj tawm rau lub zog nruab nrab ntawm 158.75mm Silicon Wafers yog hais txog 6.8W / thooj, thiab nruab nrab ntawm lub zog ntawm 182 hli Silicon Wafers yog hais txog 6.25W / thooj. Qhov nruab nrab lub zog ntawm qhov loj silicon wafer yog hais txog 7.49W / thooj, thiab nruab nrab lub zog ntawm 21W / thooj.
Nyob rau hauv xyoo tsis ntev los no, silicon wafers tau maj mam tsim nyob rau hauv cov kev taw qhia ntawm loj loj, thiab loj loj yog conducive los nce lub zog ntawm ib qho nqi tsis-silicon ntawm cov cell. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov loj ntawm cov movies silicon wafers kuj yuav tsum xav txog cov dej sov thiab nqis nrog teeb meem thiab cov teeb meem hloov thiab siab tam sim no. Txog tam sim no, muaj ob lub chaw pw hauv kev ua lag luam hais txog kev txhim kho yav tom ntej ntawm Silicon Wafer loj, uas yog 182mm loj thiab 210 hli loj. Cov lus thov ntawm 182mm yog feem ntau yog los ntawm kev pom ntawm kev lag luam ntsug, lub zog ntawm cov modules, thiab kev ua haujlwm ntawm cov nce toj thiab nqes hav; Thaum 210mm yog feem ntau yog los ntawm kev xav ntawm cov nqi tsim khoom thiab cov nqi zog. Cov zis ntawm 210 hli Silicon Wafers nce los ntawm ntau dua 15% hauv cov roj teeb sau roj teeb tau raug txo los ntawm 0.1 Yuan / W. Ob peb xyoos tom ntej no, nws yog qhov xav tias Silicon Wafers nrog qhov loj me hauv qab 166mm yuav maj mam tshem tawm; Cov dej ntws ntws mus thiab nqes dej sib txuam teeb meem ntawm 210mm Wafers yuav tau daws tau ntau yam cuam tshuam rau kev nqis peev thiab tsim cov lag luam. Yog li ntawd, kev lag luam feem 210mm Wafers yuav nce ntxiv. Ruaj; 182mm silicon wafer yuav dhau los ua cov kev ua lag luam loj hauv kev tsim kho ntawm 210mm wafer thov kev siv tshuab, 182 hli yuav muab txoj kev rau nws. Ib qho ntxiv, nws nyuaj rau qhov loj tshaj-qhov loj tshaj plaws siflicon wafers yuav pab tau ntau dua, uas yog qhov nyuaj rau kev ua haujlwm loj dua, uas yog qhov nyuaj ua rau cov nqi ntau lawm thiab cov nqi zog. Cov. Hauv 2021, silicon wafer ntau thiab tsawg xyoo 156.75mm, 186 hli, 18,7.75mm, 18%, uas yuav hloov maj mam hloov rau yav tom ntej; 166mm yog qhov loj tshaj plaws daws teeb meem uas tuaj yeem hloov kho cov kab roj teeb ntau lawm, uas yuav loj tshaj plaws hauv ob xyoos dhau los. Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev hloov pauv loj, nws xav tias kev lag luam sib qhia yuav tsawg dua 2% hauv 2030; Qhov sib xyaw ua ke loj ntawm 182mm thiab 210mm thiab 210mm thiab 21% hauv 2021, thiab kev sib koom ua lag luam yuav nce ntxiv yav tom ntej. Nws cia siab tias tag nrho cov lag luam feem hauv 2030 yuav ntau tshaj 98%.
Nyob rau hauv xyoo tsis ntev los no, kev ua lag luam Qhia tawm Monocrystalline silicon tau txuas ntxiv ntxiv, thiab nws tau nyob ntawm txoj haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv kev ua lag luam. Txij xyoo 2012 mus rau 2021, qhov ntsuas ntawm Monocrystalline silicon rose los ntawm tsawg dua 20% rau 93.3%, nce nce. Hauv kev ua si 2018, cov silicon wafers ntawm kev ua lag luam yog tsuas yog polycrystalline silicon wafers, suav rau ntau tshaj 50%. Qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb yog qhov zoo ntawm monocrystalline Silicon Wafers tsis tuaj yeem npog cov nqi tsis zoo. Txij li xyoo 2019, raws li cov photicelectric kev hloov kho nyiaj txiag ntawm monocrystalline Silicon Wafers tau txuas ntxiv ntxiv, ua qhov kev ua haujlwm ntawm kev ua lag luam. khoom. Nws cia siab tias qhov sib npaug ntawm monocrystalline Silicon Wafers yuav ncav cuag ntawm Monocrystalline Silicon Wafers yuav ncav cuag 97.7% hauv 2030. (Qhia rau qhov chaw: yav tom ntej xav tank)
1.3. Roj teeb: Perc roj teeb yeej kev ua lag luam, thiab kev txhim kho ntawm n-hom roj teeb thawb cov khoom lag luam zoo
Kev sib txuas ntawm Midovoltaic ntawm kev lag luam phototoltaic suav nrog photovoltic hlwb thiab photovoltic cell modules. Kev ua ntawm Silicon Wafers rau hauv cov cell yog cov kauj ruam tseem ceeb tshaj plaws hauv kev hloov pauv hloov pauv. Nws yuav siv sij hawm txog xya kauj ruam los ua ib lub xov tooj ntawm tes ntawm silicon wafer. Ua ntej, muab cov sillicon wafefer rau hauv hydramofluoric acid los tsim cov pyramid-li sueds ntawm tshav ntuj thiab ua kom haum lub teeb; Qhov thib ob yog phosphorus yog diffused nyob rau ntawm ib sab ntawm ib sab ntawm silicon wafer los ua ib qho kev sib tshuam ua pn, thiab nws qhov zoo cuam tshuam rau kev ua haujlwm ntawm cell; Qhov thib peb yog kom tshem tawm cov Nqis PN trunction tsim nyob rau sab ntawm silicon wafer thaum lub sijhawm doltion ntawm circuit Court ntawm cell; Ib txheej ntawm silicon nitride zaj duab xis yog coated nyob rau sab uas lub pn kev sib tshuam yog tsim kom txo lub teeb pom kev zoo thiab tib lub sijhawm ua kom muaj kev ua tau zoo; Thib tsib yog luam tawm hlau electrodes nyob sab pem hauv ntej thiab nram qab ntawm cov wafer silicon los sau cov neeg muaj feem tsawg ntawm photovoltacs; Lub Circuit Court luam tawm hauv theem luam ntawv yog sintered thiab tsim, thiab nws yog ua ke nrog cov silicon wafer, uas yog, cell; Thaum kawg, lub hlwb nrog cov khoom muaj txiaj ntsig sib txawv.
Crystalline cov ntshav silicon feem ntau yog ua nrog silicon wafers li subtic thiab tuaj yeem faib ua P-hom P-Hom Cell thiab N-hom cells raws li hom Silicon Wafers. Ntawm lawv, n-hom cells tau hloov siab dua kev ua tau zoo thiab muaj zuj zus hloov p-hom c hlwb nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no. P-hom Silicon Wafers yog tsim los ntawm doping silicon nrog boron, thiab n-hom silicon wafers yog ua los ntawm phosphorus. Yog li ntawd, cov concentration ntawm boron lub caij hauv n-hom siicon wafer yog qis dua, nws tsis muaj kev ua haujlwm yees duab hauv lub roj teeb. Tsis tas li ntawd, N-hom kev pab pawg tsawg yog qhov, thiab cov khoom siv sib tw me me ntawm cov neeg Irappation feem ntau yog me dua li ntawm cov tshuab hluav taws xob. Yog li ntawd, cov neeg muaj feem tsawg cov chaw muaj hnub nyoog ntawm N-hom cell yog siab dua thiab kev hloov pauv photicelectric siab yog siab dua. Raws li kev kuaj cov ntaub ntawv, cov kev txwv siab tshaj plaws ntawm kev hloov pauv P-hom ntawm N-hom Hauv 2021, n-hom cells (feem ntau yog suav nrog hlwb thiab cov cellcon) muaj cov nqi kuj tseem ceeb, thiab cov nplai ntawm ntau ntau lawm yog tseem me me. Cov kev ua lag luam tam sim no yog li ntawm 3%, uas yog qhov zoo ib yam li hauv 2020.
Xyoo 2021, kev hloov dua siab tshiab ntawm n-hom kev txhim kho, thiab nws xav tau tias yuav muaj ntau chav ntxiv rau kev nce qib ntxiv hauv tsib xyoos tom ntej no. Hauv 2021, qhov loj-teev ntau lawm ntawm P-Hom Monocrystalline cell yuav siv Perc Technology, thiab nruab nrab hloov zuj zus mus txog 233%, nce ntawm 0.3 feem pua cov ntsiab lus piv nrog 2020; Kev hloov zuj zus ntawm polycrystalline cov kab cua dub uas siv Perc Teac technology yuav ncav cuag 21.0%, piv nrog 2020. Cov ntsiab lus txhua xyoo; Cov pa roj polycrrystalline dub li tsis muaj zog, hloov pauv tau zoo dua li 20,5%, tsuas yog 0.1 feem pua txhim kho qhov chaw muaj tsawg; Qhov nruab nrab hloov zuj zus kev ua tau zoo ntawm Insot Monocrystalline Perc Cell yog 22.4%, uas yog 0.7 feem pua cov ntsiab lus qis dua li ntawm monocrystalline perc cov hlwb; Qhov nruab nrab hloov zuj zus kev ua tau zoo ntawm N-hom Topcon hlwb ua tau zoo nrog 2420, thiab nruab nrab hloov zuj zus ntawm ib lub hlwb nce mus txog 24,2%. Nrog rau kev txhim kho thev naus laus zis nyob rau yav tom ntej, roj teeb Technologies xws li TBC thiab HBC kuj tseem yuav ua tau kev nce qib. Yav tom ntej, nrog kev txo qis ntawm cov nqi ntau lawm thiab kev txhim kho ntawm cov txiaj ntsig, n-hom roj teeb yuav yog ib qho ntawm cov kev nthuav dav ntawm cov roj teeb thev naus laus zis.
Los ntawm cov kev pom ntawm cov roj teeb thev naus laus zis, qhov ntsuas kev hloov kho ntawm cov roj teeb, thiab HJT, cov thev naus laus zis tshiab rau perc; Topcon tuaj yeem txuas ntxiv ua ke nrog IBC los ua TBC, thiab HJT tseem tuaj yeem ua ke nrog IBC los ua HBC. P-hom monocrystalline cell feem ntau siv cov hlwb polycrystalline suav nrog kev sib ntxiv ntawm cov kab ke ntawm monocrystalline tom qab ntawd, cov square silectalming yog tsim, thiab silicon wafer Sib tov nrog ib leeg siv lead ua thiab polycrystalline yog ua los ntawm cov txheej txheem ua. Vim tias nws yeej tseem ceeb siv polycrystalline npaj txoj kev, nws suav nrog hauv qeb ntawm P-hom polycrystalline hlwb. N-hom cells yog suav nrog Topcon Monocrystalline hlwb, HJT Monocrystalline hlwb thiab ibc monocrystalline hlwb. Xyoo 2021, cov kab ntau loj tsim tau tseem yuav muaj los ntawm Perc cov kab ntau lawm cov kab, thiab kev lag luam sib koom ntawm Perc Cells yuav ntxiv rau 91.2%. Raws li cov khoom lag luam xav tau rau sab nraum zoov thiab cov haujlwm hauv tsev tau muaj cov khoom siv BSF yuav poob ntawm 8.8% mus rau 5% hauv 2021.
1.4. Modules: Tus nqi ntawm cov xov tooj hlwb rau lub ntsiab, thiab lub zog ntawm cov modules nyob ntawm lub hlwb
Cov kauj ruam ntau lawm ntawm photovoltaic tsuas yog suav nrog kev sib txuas ntawm tes thiab cov kev sib tshuam Txij li tam sim no thiab voltage ntawm ib lub cell yog me me heev, lub hlwb yuav tsum tau cuam tshuam los ntawm cov chaw tsheb npav. Ntawm no, lawv txuas nyob rau hauv cov koob kom nce cov voltage, thiab tom qab ntawd cov ntawv sau cia, thiab tom qab ntawd muaj kev tiv thaiv los ntawm txhuas ncej thiab silicone seeding ntug. Los ntawm kev pom ntawm kev sib xyaw ua ke tsim cov nqi ntau lawm, cov khoom siv tus nqi tus nqi rau 75%, nyob ntawm kev tsim khoom raug nqi, tus nqi kev ua tau zoo thiab raug nqi. Tus nqi ntawm cov ntaub ntawv yog coj los ntawm tus nqi ntawm cov hlwb. Raws li kev tshaj tawm los ntawm ntau lub tuam txhab, cov nyiaj hlwb rau txog 2/3 ntawm tag nrho cov nqi ntawm photovoltaic modules.
Photovoltaic modules feem ntau faib raws li xovtooj ntawm tes, qhov loj me, thiab ntau. Muaj ntau yam sib txawv ntawm lub zog ntawm cov qauv sib txawv, tab sis lawv txhua tus nyob rau theem microsing. Lub Hwj Chim yog qhov taw qhia tseem ceeb ntawm photovoltaic modules, sawv cev tus module lub peev xwm hloov hluav taws xob rau hluav taws xob. Nws tuaj yeem pom los ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob sib txawv ntawm ntau hom photovoltaic uas thaum qhov loj ntawm tus qauv yog tib lub crystal> P-hom ib Crystal> Polycrrystalline; Qhov loj dua qhov loj thiab ntau dua, ntau dua lub zog ntawm cov qauv; Rau Topcon Ib Crystal modules thiab herojunction modules thiab modulittion modules ntawm tib cov lus tshwj xeeb, lub zog ntawm lub tom kawg yog ntau dua li ntawm cov qub. Raws li CPIA kev kwv yees, module hwj chim yuav nce los ntawm 5-10W ib xyoos nyob rau ob peb xyoos tom ntej no. Tsis tas li ntawd, ntim tshuab hluav taws xob yuav nqa qee lub zog hluav taws xob, feem ntau nrog rau kev poob kho qhov muag thiab poob hluav taws xob. Cov qub yog tshwm sim los ntawm kev hloov pauv thiab kho qhov muag ntawm cov khoom ntim xws li EVA, thiab tom kawg yog hais txog kev siv cov yeeb yaj kiab solar hauv koob. Lub Circuit Court poob tshwm sim los ntawm kev tawm tsam ntawm cov vuam Ribbon thiab lub tsheb npav tsis zoo los ntawm kev sib txuas ntawm lub hlwb, tag nrho cov kev ua tsis tau tam sim no, tag nrho cov kev ua tsis tau tam sim no, tag nrho cov kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm ob tus account kom txog 8%.
1.5. Photovoltaic installed muaj peev xwm: cov cai ntawm ntau lub tebchaws yog pom tseeb tsav, thiab muaj chaw loj rau kev txhim kho tshiab hauv lub neej yav tom ntej
Lub ntiaj teb tau mus txog qhov kev pom zoo ntawm net xoom kev tawm tsam lub hom phiaj, thiab kev lag luam ntawm SuperSusoltaic tau tshwm sim maj. Lub teb chaws yog nquag tshawb nrhiav kev loj hlob ntawm lub zog txuas ntxiv dua tshiab. Xyoo tsis ntev los no, cov teb chaws thoob ntiaj teb tau cog lus tias kom txo cov pa roj carbon monissions. Feem ntau ntawm cov roj loj loj tau tsim cov qauv sib xws txuas ntxiv lub hom phiaj lub zog, thiab lub peev xwm txhim kho ntawm lub zog txuas ntxiv yog loj heev. Raws li lub 1.5 ℃ Kub tswj lub hom phiaj, ITA qhov kev kwv yees tau tias lub ntiaj teb muaj hluav taws xob txuas ntxiv rau lub zog (Is Nrias teb Cov kev txhawb nqa nquag ntawm cov kev cai hauv ntau lub tebchaws thiab kev lag luam ntawm photovoltaic lub zog tau muaj peev xwm nce hauv lub xov tooj ntawm lub ntiaj teb thiab Suav teb tsis ntev los no. Txij xyoo 2012 mus rau 2021, qhov kev sib tw tsim muaj peev xwm ntawm photovoltaics hauv lub ntiaj teb yuav nce ntxiv ntawm cov photovoltaics hauv Suav teb yuav nce ntxiv ntawm 6.7gw mus rau 307gw, thiab ntau tshaj 44 zaug. Tsis tas li ntawd, Tuam Tshoj tus tshiab khiv ntsia photovoltaic muaj peev xwm suav tau ntau dua 20% ntawm lub ntiaj teb no lub peev xwm tag nrho. Xyoo 2021, Tuam Tshoj tus tshiab nruab photovoltaic tshiab yog 53gw, suav nyiaj txog 40% ntawm lub ntiaj teb no muaj peev xwm tshiab. Qhov no yog tsuas yog vim muaj ntau yam thiab kev faib tawm ntawm lub zog hluav taws xob hauv Suav teb, cov kev tsim kho tau zoo thiab cov kev txhawb nqa muaj zog ntawm cov cai hauv tebchaws. Nyob rau lub sijhawm no, Suav tau ua lub luag haujlwm loj hauv photovoltaic lub zog muaj peev xwm tau suav rau tsawg dua 6.5%. dhia mus rau 36.14%.
Raws li kev txheeb xyuas saum toj no, CPIA tau muab cov lus qhia rau tshiab muaj ntau photovoltaic nruab ntawm 2022 txog 2030 thoob plaws lub ntiaj teb. Nws yog kwv yees tias nyob rau hauv ob qho kev xav zoo thiab kev xav tau, lub ntiaj teb tshiab txhim kho lub peev xwm hauv 2030 yuav yog 366 thiab 315GY muaj peev xwm ntawm Tuam Tshoj yuav yog 128., 105gw. Hauv qab no peb yuav kwv yees qhov kev thov rau polysilicon raws li nplai ntawm cov peev xwm tshiab tshiab txhua xyoo.
1.6. Xav tau kev twv ntawm polysilicon rau photovoltaic cov ntawv thov
Txij li 2022 txog 2030, raws li CPIA txoj kev kwv yees rau lub ntiaj teb tshiab nce qib siab thiab txuag rau polysilicon rau PV cov ntawv thov tuaj yeem kwv yees. Cell yog cov kauj ruam tseem ceeb rau kev hloov pauv lub cim ntawm cov hlwb thiab cov pob zeb ua kom zoo nkauj, yog li nws yog ib feem tseem ceeb ntawm polysilicon thov kev kwv yees. Tus naj npawb hnyav ntawm cov thooj ib phaus ntawm cov pob zeb Silicon Tom qab ntawd, raws li lub zog thiab kev lag luam sib qhia ntawm silicon wafers ntawm ntau qhov sib txawv ntawm cov silicon wafers tuaj yeem kwv yees raws li cov khoom muaj peev xwm tshiab ntawm lub peev xwm tshiab. Tom ntej no, qhov hnyav ntawm cov pas dej uas yuav tsum muaj silicon thiab kev cuam tshuam tau raws li tus naj npawb ntawm silicon wafs thiab cov pas nrig hnyav thiab silicon ib phaus. Ntxiv nrog ua ke nrog txoj kab ke hnyav silicon tau noj, cov khoom siv silicon, qhov kev thov rau polysilicon rau cov khoom muaj peev xwm tshiab tuaj yeem tau txais thaum kawg tau txais. Raws li cov lus qhia txog kev pom zoo, lub ntiaj teb xav tau, cov kev xav tau thoob ntiaj teb rau polysilicon rau cov tshiab photovoltaic nruab rau hauv 2027, thiab tom qab ntawd tsis lees txais me me hauv peb lub xyoos tom ntej no. It is estimated that under optimistic and conservative conditions in 2025, the global annual demand for polysilicon for photovoltaic installations will be 1,108,900 tons and 907,800 tons respectively, and the global demand for polysilicon for photovoltaic applications in 2030 will be 1,042,100 tons under optimistic and conservative conditions. , 896,900 tons. Raws li Tuam TshojKev faib tawm ntawm Global photovoltaic Installed muaj peev xwm,Tuam Tshoj txoj kev thov rau polysilicon rau photovoltaic siv nyob rau hauv 2025Yuav tsum yog 369,600 tons thiab 302,600 tons nyob rau hauv kev xav thiab kev coj ua, thiab 75,200 tons txawv teb li.
2, Semiconductor kawg thov: Qhov ntsuas me dua li qhov kev thov hauv lub photovoltaic, thiab kev loj hlob yav tom ntej tuaj yeem xav tau
Ntxiv nrog rau kev ua cov photovoltic hlwb, polysilicon kuj tseem tuaj yeem siv ua cov khoom lag luam semiconduct, uas tuaj yeem siv rau hauv kev sib txuas lus ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, uas tuaj yeem siv hauv kev sib txuas lus hluav taws xob, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, cov khoom siv hauv tsev thiab lwm thaj chaw. Cov txheej txheem los ntawm polysilicon rau nti yog feem ntau muab faib ua peb kauj ruam. Ua ntej, cov polysilicon yog kos rau hauv monocrystalline silicon kev cuam tshuam, thiab tom qab ntawd txiav rau hauv nyias cov nyias ntxiag wafers. Silicon wafers yog tsim los ntawm cov kev sib tsoo, chamfering thiab ua haujlwm polishing. , uas yog cov khoom siv yooj yim ntawm lub Hoobkas semiconductor. Thaum kawg, cov Sericon wafer yog txiav thiab laser engraved mus rau hauv ntau cov txheej txheem Circuitor ua cov khoom chip suav nrog qee yam yam ntxwv. Hom Silicon Wafers tsuas yog suav nrog cov ntaub ntawv wafers polished, epitaxial wafers thiab soi wafers. Cov wafer polished yog cov khoom siv ntau lawm nrog cov txheej txheem siab rau saum npoo av, uas tuaj yeem siv ncaj qha los ua cov chips, ecitaxial wafers thiab yefers silicon wafers. Cov kab mob epitaxial yog tau los ntawm kev loj hlob ntawm kev loj hlob ntawm polished, thaum ion cog qoob loo ntawm polished wafer substrates, thiab txheej txheem npaj tau yooj yim.
Los ntawm kev thov rau polysilicon ntawm semiconductor sab hauv 2021, sib xyaw ua ke ntawm cov polysilicon ntawm cov semiconductor teb los ntawm 2025 tuaj yeem yog 2025 tuaj yeem yog kwv yees kwv yees. Xyoo 2021, lub ntiaj teb hluav taws xob-qib ntau lawm nyiaj txiag, thiab hnub ci polysilicon thiab solular silicon yuav suav rau txog 94%. Feem ntau-qib polysilicon yog siv nyob rau hauv lub semiconductor teb, thiab lwm cov polysilicon yog siv hauv kev lag luam photovoltaic. Cov. Yog li ntawd, nws tuaj yeem xav tias cov polysilicon siv nyob rau hauv kev lag luam semiconductor hauv 2021 yog li 37,000 tons. Ib qho ntxiv, raws li yav tom ntej compound kev loj hlob tus nqi ntawm FortuneMusing kev siv yuav nce ntxiv ntawm cov polysilicon ntawm 825, qhov kev thov rau polysilicon hauv lub teb semiconductor yuav nyob ib ncig ntawm 51,500 tons. (Qhia qhov chaw: yav tom ntej xav tank)
3, Polysilico Ntshuam thiab Export: Txawv Teb Chaws: Txawv Teb Chaws Tuaj Tshaj Tawm, nrog Lub Tebchaws Yelemees thiab Malaysia Nyiaj Txiag rau cov feem ntau dua
Xyoo 2021, txog 18.63% ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev xav tau Polysilicon yuav los ntawm kev txawv teb, thiab cov nplai ntawm kev xa tawm deb tshaj qhov kev xa tawm. Los ntawm 2017 txog 2021, tus qauv ntshuam ntawm polysilicon yog los ntawm kev lag luam hauv hluav taws xob uas tau tsim kho sai sai rau cov polysilicon nyiaj rau ntau dua 94% ntawm tag nrho cov kev thov; Ib qho ntxiv, lub tuam txhab tseem tsis tau paub txog cov thev naus laus zis ntau lawm ntawm cov polysilicon-qib uas yuav tsum muaj los ntawm Circuit Court kev lag luam tseem yuav cia siab rau kev nkag siab. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv ntawm Silicon Kev Lag Luam Ceg, cov tuam txhab tsis zoo, muaj qee lub tuam txhab txawv teb chaws, tau muaj ntau lub tuam txhab txawv teb chaws, muaj ntau yam ntxiv rau hauv cov tuam txhab polysilic, tau rho tawm ntawm polysilicon kev lag luam vim kom poob, yog li cov chaw nyob ntshuam ntshuam ntawm polysilicon yog qhov qis dua; Txawm hais tias cov peev txheej ntau lawm tsis tau nce nyob rau hauv 2020, qhov kev cuam tshuam ntawm tus mob kis tau coj mus qeeb hauv kev tsim kho ntawm photovoltaic, thiab cov polysilicon xaj tau poob rau hauv tib lub sijhawm. Xyoo 2021, Tuam Tshoj lub lag luam photovoltanic yuav tsim kho kom sai, thiab cov kev noj ntawm polysilicon yuav ncav cuag 613,000 rau 613,000 Nyob rau tsib xyoos dhau los, Tuam Tshoj cov Net Polysilicon cov khoom lag luam tau nyob ntawm 903,800 tons nyob rau hauv 100,000 tons ib xyoo los ntawm 2022 txog 2025.
Tuam Tshoj cov polysilicon importations tsuas yog los ntawm lub teb chaws Yelemees, Malaysia, Nyiv thiab tag nrho cov neeg lag luam, thiab tag nrho cov neeg lag luam, 13,5% los ntawm Nyij Pooj, thiab 6% los ntawm Taiwan. Lub teb chaws Yelemees muaj lub ntiaj teb Polysilicon Giant Wacker, uas yog qhov loj tshaj plaws polysilicon, accounting rau 12,7% ntawm tag nrho lub ntiaj teb ntau lawm hauv 2021; Malaysia muaj ntau cov polysilicon cov kab ntau lawm los ntawm South Kauslim cov kab ntau lawm hauv Malaysia ntawm Tokeas, lub tuam txhab Japanese tau txais los ntawm OCI. Muaj cov ntsiab lus thiab qee cov teeb meem uas Oci tsiv los ntawm Kaus Lim Qab Teb rau Malaysia. Qhov laj thawj rau kev tsiv chaw yog tias Malaysia muaj cov hluav taws xob dawb thiab tus nqi hluav taws xob yog ib feem peb qis dua li ntawm South Kauslim; Nyiv thiab Taiwan, Tuam Tshoj muaj Tokuyama, tau txais thiab lwm cov tuam txhab, uas nyob ib qho kev sib tw loj polysilicon ntau lawm. ib qho chaw. Xyoo 2021, cov polysilicon tso zis yuav yog 492,000 tons, uas cov khoom siv tsim khoom ntau ntxiv rau kev ua haujlwm qis dua rau kev ua haujlwm qis dua thiab xa tawm txawv teb chaws. Nyob rau hauv cov kab nqes hauv polysilicon, silicon wafers, hlwb yog xa tawm, ntawm cov export ntawm cov qauv yog qhov tshwj xeeb. Nyob rau hauv 2021, 4.64 lab silicon wafers thiab 3.2 billion photovoltaic tauxa tawmSuav teb, nrog tag nrho export ntawm 22.6gw thiab 10.3gw feem, thiab lub export ntawm photovoltaic modules yog 98.5gw, nrog ob peb tsawg imports. Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm export muaj nuj nqi sib xyaw ua ke, module exposions hauv 2021 yuav ncav cuag peb $ 246%, ua raws li los ntawm Silicon Wafers thiab roj teeb. Xyoo 2021, cov vis dis aus ntawm silicon wafers, photovoltic hlwb, thiab photovoltaic modules yuav ncav cuag 97.3%, thiab 82.3%, feem. Nws cia siab tias lub xov tooj ntawm lub ntiaj teb no yuav ua tib zoo mloog hauv Suav teb hauv peb lub xyoo tom ntej, thiab cov zis thiab cov ntawv tshaj tawm ntawm txhua qhov txuas yuav muaj ntau. Yog li, nws kwv yees tias ntawm 2022 txog 2025, tus nqi polysilicon siv rau kev ua thiab xa tawm cov khoom hauv nroog thiab xa tawm mus ntxiv. Nws yog kwv yees los ntawm kev rho tawm txawv teb chaws ntau lawm los ntawm txawv teb chaws polysilicon xav tau. Nyob rau hauv 2025, polysilicon tsim los ntawm kev ua rau cov khoom lag luam hauv qab dej yuav raug kwv yees rau export 583,000 tons rau lwm haiv neeg teb chaws Suav teb
4, Cov ntsiab lus thiab Outlook
Lub ntiaj teb polysilicon xav tau feem ntau concovrated nyob rau hauv lub photovoltaic, thiab qhov kev thov hauv lub teb semiconductor tsis yog kev txiav txim ntawm qhov ntau. Qhov kev thov rau polysilicon yog tsav los ntawm photovoltaic nruab, thiab yog maj mam kis rau polysilicon los ntawm cov ntawv ntawm photovoltaic-wafer, tsim kev xav tau rau nws. Nyob rau yav tom ntej, nrog nthuav dav ntawm german photovoltaic txhim kho muaj peev xwm, qhov kev thov rau polysilicon feem ntau yog qhov zoo. Qhov zoo tshaj plaws, Suav thiab txawv teb chaws tshiab nce ntau dua PV nruab ua rau cov polysilicon hauv 2025 yuav yog 36.24Gw thiab 60.49GW feem. Xyoo 2021, lub ntiaj teb polysilicon mov thiab kev thov yuav nruj, ua rau hauv ntiaj teb polysilicon nqi. Cov xwm txheej no tseem tuaj yeem txuas ntxiv mus txog 2022, thiab maj mam tig mus rau theem xoob tau tsim muaj zog tom qab 2023. Hauv polysilicon, thiab qee cov tuam txhab ua lag luam npaj tau ntau lawm. Txawm li cas los xij, kev nthuav dav voj voog ntawm ntau dua ib thiab ib nrab xyoo ua rau muaj peev xwm ntau tshaj li ntawm 2021, ua rau muaj kev sib tw ntawm 1021. Muaj kev sib tw, yog li tus nqi tau nce siab. Nws yog kwv yees uas nyob rau hauv 2022, nyob rau hauv qhov kev xav zoo thiab kev txuag hluav taws xob tau tsim muaj peev xwm -156,500 tons thiab 2,400 tons thiab cov khoom xa tag nrho tseem yuav nyob rau hauv lub xeev ntawm qhov tsis tshua muaj. Xyoo 2023 thiab dhau mus, cov haujlwm tshiab uas tau tsim kho qhov kawg ntawm 2021 thiab thaum ntxov 2022 yuav pib kev tsim khoom thiab ua tiav qhov chaw muaj peev xwm ntau lawm. Kev muab thiab thov yuav maj mam daws, thiab cov nqi yuav nyob hauv qab siab. Hauv kev taug qab, saib xyuas yuav tsum tau them rau qhov cuam tshuam ntawm cov phiaj xwm Lavxias-Ukrainian rau cov phiaj xwm thoob ntiaj teb, uas yuav cuam tshuam rau cov kev thov tshiab rau polysilicon.
(Kab lus no tsuas yog siv rau cov neeg siv hauv nroog loj 'Cov qhua tuaj noj mov thiab tsis sawv cev ntawm cov lus qhia peev)