1. Polysilicon Saw: Cov txheej txheem ntau lawm yog cov nyom, thiab cov dej xau rau ntawm photovoltaic semiconductors
Polysilicon tsuas yog tsim los ntawm cov silicon muaj silicon, chlorine thiab hydrogen, thiab yog nyob rau pem hauv lub photovoltaic thiab semiconductor chancess. Raws li CPIA cov ntaub ntawv, cov txheej txheem polysilicon ntau lawm hauv lub ntiaj teb yog cov polysilicon yog tsim los ntawm cov qauv Siemens hloov kho. Nyob rau hauv cov txheej txheem ntawm kev npaj polysilicon los ntawm kev txhim kho cov silicon kom tsim cov silichloride, thiab tom qab ntawd nws cov tshuaj sib xyaw ua ke los ntawm hydrogen roj kom tsim cov polysilicon. Cov pa roj polycrrystalline muaj peev xwm tau melion tuaj yeem ua polycrystalline silicon tau kuj tseem tsim los ntawm czochralski lossis thaj chaw melting. Piv nrog polycrystalline silicon, tib lub tshuab ua si ua kom muaj lead ua ke nrog cov kev qhia hluav taws xob, yog li nws muaj hluav taws xob zoo dua qub. Ob leeg polycrystalline silicon kev noj thiab monocrystalline silicon pas nrig tuaj yeem txiav thiab ua tiav rau cov khoom tseem ceeb ntawm photovoltaic thiab yog siv nyob rau hauv lub photovoltaic. Ib qho ntxiv, tib lub Crystal Silicon Wafers kuj tseem tuaj yeem tsim ua silicon wafers los ntawm kev rov sib tsoo, ntxuav thiab lwm yam kev ua tiav rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob hauv tshuab hluav taws xob.
Cov polysilicon cov ntsiab lus los yog xav tau nruj me ntsis, thiab kev lag luam muaj cov yam ntxwv ntawm cov peev txheej siab peev thiab muaj kev nyuaj siab. Txij li thaum lub cev polysilican yuav cuam tshuam rau ib qho kev ua kom muaj lead ua cov txheej txheem silicon, cov kev xav tau tsis ncaj ncees. Qhov tsawg kawg ntawm polysilicon yog 99.999%, thiab qhov siab tshaj plaws yog infinitely ze rau 100%. Tsis tas li ntawd, Tuam Tshoj cov qauv hauv tebchaws tau muab cov ntsiab lus ntawm Boron, cov polysen, thiab IIIgen thiab Carbon yog ib qho tseem ceeb siv. "Polysilicon Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam" cov khoom siv uas cov lag luam yuav tsum muaj lub suab tshuaj xyuas zoo thiab kev tswj hwm, thiab cov khoom lag luam nruj me ntsis ua raws cov qauv hauv tebchaws; Ib qho ntxiv, nkag mus saib cov xwm txheej tseem xav tau cov nplai thiab kev tsim kho lub zog ntawm kev tsim kho tshiab thiab kev txhawb nqa hluav taws xob ntau dua li 30%, yog li Polysilicon yog ib qho peev txheej kev lag luam. Raws li CPIA txheeb cais, tus nqi peev ntawm 10,000-tuj polysilicon cov khoom siv tso rau hauv 2021 tau nce me ntsis rau 103 lab yuan / kt. Qhov laj thawj yog qhov nce nyob rau hauv tus nqi ntawm ntau cov ntaub ntawv hlau. Nws cia siab tias kev nqis peev nqi nyob rau yav tom ntej yuav nce ntxiv nrog kev nce qib ntawm cov khoom siv thev naus laus zis ntau lawm thiab monomer txo qis raws li qhov loj me. According to the regulations, the power consumption of polysilicon for solar-grade and electronic-grade Czochralski reduction should be less than 60 kWh/kg and 100 kWh/kg respectively, and the requirements for energy consumption indicators are relatively strict. Polysilicon ntau lawm yog rau cov tshuaj lom neeg. Cov txheej txheem ntau lawm yog qhov sib txawv, thiab cov txheej txheem xaiv cov txheej txheem, kev xaiv khoom siv, kev ua haujlwm thiab kev ua haujlwm siab. Cov txheej txheem ntau lawm koom nrog ntau cov tshuaj tiv thaiv nyuaj, thiab cov naj npawb ntawm cov tswj nodes yog ntau tshaj 1,000. Nws yog qhov nyuaj rau cov neeg nkag tshiab sai tus tswv tau paub tab cov Craftsmanship. Yog li ntawd, muaj cov kev pab cuam siab thiab kev sib cav hauv polysilicon ntau lawm los ua cov txheej txheem kev ua kom zoo ntawm cov txheej txheem ntws, ntim khoom thiab tsheb thauj mus los.
2. Polysilicon Meej Classification: Purity txiav txim siab siv, thiab lub hnub ci ua txhua txoj haujlwm ntawm cov ntsiab
Polycrystalline silicon, ib daim ntawv ntawm cov muaj lead ua nplej nrog cov qoob loo sib txawv, thiab yog feem ntau ua kom huv si los ntawm kev lag luam silicon. Cov tsos ntawm polysilicon yog grey yog xim hlau luster, thiab lub ntsiab lus melting yog hais txog 1410 ℃. Nws tsis muaj zog ntawm chav tsev kub thiab ua haujlwm ntau hauv lub xeev molten. Polysilicon muaj semiconductor thaj chaw thiab yog ib qho tseem ceeb tshaj plaws thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob zoo nkauj heev tuaj yeem cuam tshuam ntau yam. Muaj ntau cov qauv qhia rau cov polysilicon. Ntxiv nrog rau kev faib tawm saum toj no raws li Tuam Tshoj cov qauv hauv tebchaws, peb txoj hauv kev tseem ceeb tshaj plaws tau qhia ntawm no. Raws li cov kev xav tau sib txawv thiab siv, polysilican tuaj yeem faib ua cov polysilicon polysilicon thiab qib hluav taws xob polysilicon. Hnub ci--qib polysilicon feem ntau yog siv nyob rau hauv kev tsim cov photovoltaic, thaum lub tshuab hluav taws xob tau siv nyob rau hauv kev sib xyaw ua ke kev lag luam raws li cov khoom siv raw rau tej daim thiab lwm yam khoom lag luam. Lub purity ntawm lub hnub ci-qib polysilicon yog 6 ~ 8n, yog, tag nrho cov polysilicon yuav tsum ncav cuag 99.999% lossis ntau dua. Cov polysilic-qib polysilicon muaj kev nruj ntau dua, nrog tsawg kawg ntawm 9n thiab ntau tshaj plaws ntawm 12n. Cov khoom siv hluav taws xob-polysilicon yog qhov nyuaj. Muaj ob peb Suav cov lag luam uas tau ua tiav cov thev naus laus zis ntau lawm ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob-polysilicon, thiab lawv tseem nyob ntawm kev txawv teb chaws. Nyob rau tam sim no, cov zis ntawm lub hnub ci-qib polysilicon muaj ntau dua li cov neeg siv hluav taws xob polysilicon, thiab tus qub yog txog 13,8 lub sijhawm ntawm tom kawg.
Raws li qhov sib txawv ntawm doping impurities thiab conductivity hom silicon cov khoom, nws tuaj yeem faib ua P-hom thiab N-hom. Thaum silicon yog doped nrog lees txais cov neeg tawg los txawv teb chaws, xws li boron, txhuas, nws yog yeej los ntawm qhov kev cob thiab yog p-hom. Thaum silicon yog doped nrog pub impurity ntsiab, xws li phosphorus, arsenic, anties, thiab lwm yam. N-hom. P-hom roj teeb uas feem ntau suav nrog bsf roj teeb thiab perc roj teeb. Hauv 2021, Perc cov roj teeb yuav suav ntau dua 91% ntawm kev ua lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, thiab cov roj teeb bSF yuav raug tshem tawm. Nyob rau lub sijhawm thaum Perc hloov kev ua tau zoo ntawm P-Hom Cawv muaj kev hloov pauv ntawm N-hom kev sib zog ntawm cov neeg muaj txiaj ntsig zoo tshaj plaws ntawm N-hom kev sib tw ntawm N-hom ntsuas kub, cov tuam txhab tau pib loj Cov kab ntau lawm rau cov roj teeb n-hom roj teeb. Raws li CPIA kev kwv yees, cov feem sib npaug ntawm cov roj teeb n-hom teeb tsa tau muaj roj teeb ntxiv, nws tuaj yeem faib ua 2022. Qhov saum npoo ntawm cov khoom ntom ntom ntom dua muaj qhov qis tshaj plaws ntawm kev sib hais, tsawg dua 5 hli, tsis muaj xim txawv txav, tsis muaj oxidation interlayer, thiab tus nqi siab tshaj plaws; Cov saum npoo ntawm cov zaub mov ciliflower muaj qhov degree ntawm concality, 5-20m, ntu yog qhov nruab nrab, thiab tus nqi yog ib nrab-ntau; Thaum lub npoo ntawm cov khoom siv coral muaj qhov sib txawv ntau dua, qhov tob yog ntau dua 20mm, ntu yog xoob, thiab tus nqi yog qis tshaj. Cov khoom siv ntom ntom yog tsuas yog siv los kos monocrystalline silicon, thaum lub cauliflower khoom siv yog tsuas yog siv los ua polycrystalline silicon wafers. Hauv kev tsim khoom txhua hnub, cov khoom siv ntom ntom muaj peev xwm doped nrog tsis muaj tsawg dua 30% khoom noj khoom haus los tsim monocrystalline silicon. Tus nqi ntawm raw cov ntaub ntawv tuaj yeem txuag, tab sis siv cov khoom ntim zaub paj dawb yuav txo cov siv lead ua kom rub tawm kev ua tau zoo. Cov lag luam yuav tsum xaiv cov qauv doping uas tsim nyog tom qab siv ob. Tsis ntev los no, tus nqi sib txawv ntawm cov khoom siv ntom ntom thiab cov zaub mov paj dawb muaj yeej ruaj khov ntawm 3 RMB / KG. Yog tias tus nqi sib txawv yog dav ntxiv, cov tuam txhab yuav txiav txim siab doping ntau cov khoom siv cauliflower ntau pob hauv monocrystalline silicon rub.
3. Txheej Txheem: Siemens Qauv Ua Haujlwm hauv lub ntsiab, thiab siv fais fab ua tus yuam sij rau kev hloov pauv
Cov txheej txheem ntau lawm ntawm polysilicon yog kwv yees muab faib ua ob kauj ruam. Nyob rau hauv thawj kauj ruam, muaj cov silicon hmoov yog reased nrog anhydrous hydrogen chloride kom tau trichhlorosilane thiab hydrogen. Tom qab rov ua cov distillation thiab purification, gaseous trichhlorane, dichlorihydrosilicon thiab silane; Qhov thib ob kauj ruam yog txhawm rau kom txo tau saum toj no-purity roj mus rau crystalline txoj kev hloov kho siemens thiab txoj kev ua si silased txaj. Kev txhim kho siemens txoj kev tau paub tab cov cuab yeej siv tshuab thiab cov khoom lag luam zoo zoo, thiab yog tam sim no cov thev naus laus zis ntau lawm siv. Cov tsoos Siemens txoj kev ntau lawm yog siv cov chlorine thiab hydrogen rau synicesize attthesize hydrogen chloride, thiab tom qab ntawd kho, thiab ua kom huv cov trichlorosilane. Cov silicon undergoes muaj kev cuam tshuam nrog cov thermal txo cov cua sov kom tau txais cov hluav taws xob roj av kom tau txais cov tub ntxhais silicon. Ntawm lub hauv paus no, cov txheej txheem txhim kho cov siemens kuj tau nruab nrog cov txheej txheem txhawb nqa hauv cov roj ntsha ua kom zoo dua qub, thiab silicon tetrachloride siv tshuab siv tshuab. Hydrogen, hydrogen chloride, trichlorosilane, thiab silicon tetrachloride rau hauv cov roj tso roj yog sib cais los ntawm kev rov qab kom qhuav. Hydrogen thiab hydrogen chloride tuaj yeem siv rau synthesis thiab kev lim dej nrog Trichhlorosilane, thiab Trichhlorosilane yog rov ua dua rau hauv kev txo cov thermal. Kev ua kom huv yog nqa tawm hauv qhov cub hluav taws xob, thiab silicon Tetrachloride yog hydrogenated los tsim trichlorosilane, uas tuaj yeem siv rau kev ua kom huv. Cov kauj ruam no tseem hu ua kev kho mob hydrogenation condogenation condogenation. Los ntawm kev paub kaw-corrcuit Court, kev lag luam tuaj yeem txo qis kev noj cov ntaub ntawv raw thiab hluav taws xob, yog li txuag cov nqi ntau lawm.
Tus nqi tsim kev tsim cov polysilicon siv cov qauv hloov kho tshiab hauv Suav teb suav nrog cov khoom siv raw, thiab lwm yam kev nce qib hauv kev lag luam tau txais txiaj ntsig ntau yam. Cov khoom siv raw tsuas yog xa mus rau Silicon thiab Trichlorosilane, lub zog siv hluav taws xob suav nrog cov nqi hluav taws xob suav nrog kev kuaj xyuas thiab cov nqi kho ntawm cov khoom siv khoom siv. Raws li Baichuan Yingfu cov cai ntawm Polysilicon Cov Nqi Ntau Lawm nyob rau hauv thaum lub Rau Hli 2022, cov nyiaj txiag uas muaj silicon yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm silicon. Chav tsev silicon tau siv feem ntau yog siv nyob rau hauv kev lag luam sawv cev tus nqi ntawm silicon noj ib chav ntawm high-purity silicon khoom. Kev xam cov txheej txheem yog hloov tag nrho cov khoom siv silicon muaj xws li outsourosilane mus rau outsourosilane mus rau Outourced Cholicon, thiab tom qab ntawd rho tawm cov ntshiab silicon hloov dua siab tshiab los ntawm cov lus silicon. Raws li CPIA cov ntaub ntawv, theem ntawm silicon noj yuav poob los ntawm 0.01 kg / kg / kg / kg / kg / kg los ntawm 2030. Kg-li. Kg-Si. Raws li cov txheeb cais tsis tiav, kev noj mov ua tsis tiav, kev noj mov hauv tsib Suav hauv polysilicon kev lag luam yog qis dua li qhov kev lag luam nruab nrab. Nws tau paub tias ob ntawm lawv yuav noj 1.08 kg / KG-tus nqi hluav taws xob rau kev siv hluav taws xob, muaj txiaj ntsig yog tseem ceeb rau cov khoom lag luam polysilicon. Ob qhov ntsuas loj los ntsuas lub zog hluav taws xob kuj muaj kev siv hluav taws xob ntau thiab kev siv fais fab. Kev txo hwj chim siv yog hais txog cov txheej txheem ntawm kev txo cov khoom siv trichhlorane thiab hydrogen los tsim cov khoom muaj ntau-huv silicon cov khoom. Lub zog siv tau xws li silicon tseem ceeb preheating thiab tso tawm. , Kev tiv thaiv cua sov, xaus rau qhov cua thiab lwm yam txheej txheem siv fais fab. Xyoo 2021, nrog kev nce qib thev naus laus zis thiab kev siv hluav taws xob ntau ntxiv, thiab lub xyoo txo qis-nyob rau 46kWh / KG-Si, uas yuav tsum txo qis ntxiv yav tom ntej. Cov. Tsis tas li ntawd, kev txo nqi tsis yog ib yam khoom tseem ceeb ntawm tus nqi, cov nyiaj txiag rau 17%. Nws yog tsim nyog sau tseg tias, raws li Baichuan Yingfu cov ntaub ntawv, tag nrho cov nqi siv nyiaj hauv lub Rau Hli yog li 70 xyoo, yog li ntawd, yog li ntawd, yog li ntawd, yog li ntawd, yog li ntawd, yog li ntawd, yog li ntawd, yog li ntawd, yog li ntawd, yog li ntawd
Muaj ob txoj hauv kev rau cov polysilicon cov tuam txhab tsim kom txo cov nqi, ib qho yog kom txo cov khoom siv raw, thiab lwm qhov yog kom txo tau hluav taws xob. Hais txog cov ntaub ntawv raw, cov chaw tsim khoom tuaj yeem txo tus nqi raw kev sib koom tes los ntawm kev kos npe rau cov khoom sib koom tes ntev los ntawm kev kos npe nce toj hauv cov khoom muaj peev xwm sib xyaw ua ke. Piv txwv li, polysilicon cov nroj tsuag ntau lawm yeej nyob ntawm lawv tus kheej cov khoom lag luam silicon. Hais txog kev siv hluav taws xob, cov tuam ntxhab tuaj yeem txo tus nqi hluav taws xob los ntawm cov nqi hluav taws xob tsawg thiab cov kev txhim kho hluav taws xob tsawg. Kwv yees li 70% ntawm cov kev siv hluav taws xob muaj kev siv hluav taws xob, thiab txo qis kuj tseem yog qhov tseem ceeb txuas hauv kev tsim cov khoom siab-huv crystalline silicon. Yog li ntawd, feem ntau polysilicon ntau lawm muaj peev xwm nyob hauv thaj tsam yog concentrated nyob rau hauv thaj chaw nrog cov nqe hluav taws xob tsawg xws li Xinjiang, Sab Hauv Tebchaws Mongolia, Sichuan thiab Yunnan. Txawm li cas los xij, nrog kev nce qib ntawm ob-txoj cai carbon txoj cai, nws yog qhov nyuaj kom tau txais ntau npaum li cas ntawm cov khoom muaj nqi tsawg. Yog li ntawd, txo hwj huam siv rau kev txo yog tus nqi txo qis niaj hnub no. Txoj kev. Tam sim no, txoj kev zoo los txo kev siv hluav taws xob txo tau yog kom nce cov neeg rauv uas muaj kev txo qis ntawm ib chav. Tam sim no, txoj kev muab hluav taws xob cuam tshuam nrog hluav taws xob hauv Suav teb yog 36 khub ntawm cov pas nrig, 40 khub ntawm pas nrig thiab 48 khub ntawm cov pas nrig. Hom dej ua kom sov yog txhim kho mus rau 60 tus khub ntawm cov pas nrig thiab 72 khub ntawm cov pas nrig, tab sis tib lub sijhawm, nws tseem yuav tsum tau ua rau kev lag luam ntau dua rau cov lag luam thev naus laus zis ntau lawm.
Piv nrog cov qauv hloov siemens, lub pob zeb fluized noj txoj kev muaj peb qhov yog qhov siab dua ccz txuas ntxiv ccz txuas ntxiv ccz txuas ntxiv czozralski thev naus laus zis. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv ntawm Silicon kev lag luam Ceg, muaj cov kev siv sia ntawm cov silane fluidized, thiab kev siv hluav taws xob txhim kho yog 10% ntawm kev txhim kho Siemens txoj kev. Lub silane fluized txaj txoj kev muaj lub zog tseem ceeb siv hluav taws xob. Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm cov siv lead ua, lub cev ntawm cov pob zeb ua kom yooj yim kom ua kom tiav cov quartz crucible nyob rau hauv ib leeg crystal silicon rub qws. Polycrystalline silicon thiab granular silicon tuaj yeem nce ib qho cub tawg ntawm 41%, thaum kev rub tawm kev rub tawm kev ua haujlwm ntawm tib lub Crystal silicon. Tsis tas li ntawd, cov kab ntxawv silicon muaj qhov sib txawv me me thiab zoo fluidity, uas yog qhov tsim nyog rau CCZ txuas ntxiv czochralski txoj kev. Tam sim no, lub ntsiab ntawm ib lub siv lead ua ib qho chaw nyob hauv nruab nrab thiab qis dua yog tus rcz ib lub lead ua qauv, uas yog kom rov qab noj qab zib tom qab ib lub crystal silicon pas nrig yog rub. Daim duab kos yog nqa tawm nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, uas txuag lub sijhawm txias ntawm tib lub crystal silicon pas nrig, yog li kev tsim tawm tau zoo dua. Kev loj hlob sai ntawm CCZ Nruam Nruam Czochralski Txoj Kev kuj tseem yuav tsav qhov kev thov rau Granular Silicon. Txawm hais tias granular silicon muaj qee qhov tsis zoo, xws li cov pa tsw qab ua ke, tab sis yog qhov teeb meem yooj yim ntawm cov pa paug, tab sis yog kev txhim kho thiab qee qhov kev nce qib tau ua.
Silane Fluized lub txaj txheej txheem yog txiv neej nyob hauv Tebchaws Europe thiab Tebchaws Asmeskas, thiab nws yog nyob rau hauv nws cov menyuam mos tom qab kev qhia ntawm Suav cov lag luam. Thaum ntxov li xyoo 1980s, txawv teb chaws granular silicon sawv cev los ntawm rec thiab memc pib tshawb cov granular silicon thiab pom tau ntau-teev ntau lawm. Ntawm lawv, rec tag nrho cov khoom muaj peev xwm ntau lawm ntawm granular silicon tau mus txog 10,500 tons / xyoo hauv 2010 kom zoo dua li US $ 2-3 / kg. Vim tias cov kev xav tau ntawm tib lub tshuab ua ke, thiab thaum kawg nres ntau lawm, thiab thaum kawg nres kev tsim khoom nrog Suav los tsim kev lag luam ntau lawm hauv kev lag luam silicon.
4. Cov khoom lag luam nyoos: Cov khoom silicon yog cov khoom siv tseem ceeb, thiab cov khoom siv tuaj yeem ua tau raws li cov kev xav tau ntawm polysilicon nthuav dav
Muaj Silicon yog cov khoom siv raw rau polysilicon ntau lawm. Nws cia siab tias suav tias Tuam Tshoj cov khoom siv siventon yuav loj hlob ntawm 2022 txog 2021, Tuam Tshoj cov khoom lag luam loj hlob thiab tso zis ntau xyoo ntxiv thiab 8.6%, feem. Raws li SMS cov ntaub ntawv, cov nyiaj tau nce tshiabMuaj Silicon Ntau LawmHauv Suav teb yuav yog 890,000 tons thiab 1.065 lab tons hauv 2022 thiab 2023. Kwv yees tias cov lag luam silicon cov tuam txhab yuav tseem tswj hwm tus nqi peev thiab khiav haujlwm ntawm kwv yees li 60% yav tom ntej, Suav tau nce ntxivMuaj peev xwm ntau lawm nyob rau hauv 2022 thiab 2023 yuav coj txog kev tso zis nce ntawm 320,000 tons thiab 383,000 tons. Raws li kev kwv yees ntawm gfci,Tuam Tshoj cov khoom lag luam silicon ntau lawm nyob rau hauv 22/24/25 yog txog 5.90 / 6.5 lab tons, coj mus rau 3.55 / 391 / 4.38 lab tons.
Txoj kev loj hlob ntawm cov seem uas muaj ob qho chaw nyob ntawm cov silicon yog qeeb, thiab Tuam Tshoj txoj lag luam Silicon ntau lawm tuaj yeem sib ntsib ntawm polysilicon. Hauv 2021, Tuam Tshoj muaj ntau lawm yuav muaj ntau lawm yog 5.385 lab tons, organic sidicon, ntawm cov polyslots, thiab txhuas tons, 898,000 tons, thiab 649,000 tons, feem. Tsis tas li ntawd, ze li ntawm 780,000 tons ntawm cov zis tau siv rau kev xa tawm. Xyoo 2021, kev noj ntawm polysilicon, organic silicon, thiab txhuas alloys yuav suav nyiaj rau 19%, 28% ntawm kev lag luam silicon, feem. Txij li 2022 txog 2025, txoj kev loj hlob ntawm cov organic silicon ntau lawm yuav tsum nyob ib ncig ntawm 10%, thiab txoj kev loj hlob ntawm Aluminium ntau lawm yog qis dua 5%. Yog li ntawd, peb ntseeg tias tus nqi ntawm cov silicon uas tuaj yeem siv rau polysilicon hauv 2022-2025 no tuaj yeem ua kom tau raws li cov polysilicon. Cov kev xav tau ntau lawm.
5. Polysilicon Mov:Phiaj suavoccialies txoj hauj lwm, thiab ntau chav sib sau ua ke khaws cov kev lag luam
Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los, lub ntiaj teb polysilicon kev tsim muaj tau nce xyoo los ntawm xyoo, thiab tau maj mam sib sau ua ke hauv Suav teb. Txij 2017 txog 2021, tons loj heev hauv 432,000 tons los ntawm 632,000 tons rau ntawm 2021, nrog kev loj hlob ntawm 21.11%. Nyob rau lub sijhawm no, kev tsim khoom lag luam thoob ntiaj teb tau nce ntxiv ntawm cov tuam txhab lag luam hauv xyoo 2010 thiab 2021 ho ntog tawm ntawm kaum pawg kaum, xws li hemolock, OCI, Rec thiab memc; Qhov kev lag luam kev xav tau nce ntau, thiab tag nrho cov tuam txhab uas tau ntau lawm ntawm cov tuam txhab kaum hauv kev lag luam tau nce los ntawm 57.7% txog 90.3%. Xyoo 2021, muaj tsib lub tuam txhab Suav uas muaj nuj nqi ntau dua 10% ntawm cov peev xwm ntau lawm, suav rau tag nrho ntawm 65.7%. Cov. Muaj peb lub ntsiab lus rau kev hloov zuj zus ntawm polysilicon kev lag luam rau Suav. Ua ntej, Suav Polysilicon cov tuam txhab muaj qhov tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom siv raw, hluav taws xob thiab cov nqi zog. Cov nyiaj ua haujlwm ntawm cov neeg ua haujlwm yog qis dua li cov neeg txawv teb chaws, yog li tag nrho cov nqi txawv teb chaws nyob hauv Suav teb yog ntau dua li ntawm kev nce qib txawv teb chaws; Qhov thib ob, qhov zoo ntawm Suav cov khoom lag luam polysilicon yog kev txhim kho tas li, feem ntau yog nyob ntawm lub hnub ci-qib kawm ua ntej yog nyob rau hauv cov kev xav tau. Kev tawg tau ua nyob rau hauv cov thev naus laus zis ntau lawm hauv cov polysilicon-qib polysilicon rau kev tsim kho cov txheej txheem hluav taws xob polysilicon. Cov khoom siv tawm ntau lawm ntawm silicon wafers nyob hauv Suav teb yog ntau tshaj 95% ntawm tag nrho cov kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb rau Suav teb, uas tau nyem cov lag luam polysilicon cov lag luam rau qee yam.
Los ntawm 2017 txog 2021, cov polysilicon cov polysilicon hauv Suav teb yuav nce ruaj khov, tsuas yog nyob rau hauv thaj chaw nplua nuj xws li Xinjiang, sab hauv Mongolia, thiab Sichuan. Xyoo 2021, Tuam Tshoj cov polysilicon ntau lawm yuav nce ntxiv ntawm 392,000 tons mus rau 505,000 tons, nce ntxiv ntawm 28.83%. Hais txog cov peev txheej ntau lawm, Tuam Tshoj polysilico ntau lawm muaj feem ntau tau nyob rau ntawm ib qho kev nce qib, tab sis nws tau poob qis hauv 2020 vim kev kaw ntawm qee cov tuam ntxhab. Tsis tas li ntawd, lub peev xwm siv tau ntawm Suav Polysilicon cov lag luam tau nce zuj zus txij xyoo 201821 yuav ncav cuag 97.12%. Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm lub xeev, Tuam Tshoj polysilicon ntau lawm hauv 2021 yog feem ntau muaj cov nqi hluav taws xob tsawg xws li Xinjiang, sab hauv Mongolia, thiab Sichuan. Xinjiang cov zis tau tawm yog 270,400 tons, uas yog ntau tshaj li ib nrab ntawm tag nrho cov zis hauv Suav teb.
Tuam Tshoj Polysilicon kev lag luam yog tus cwj pwm los ntawm qib siab ntawm kev xav, nrog tus nqi CR6, thiab yuav muaj kev nce qib ntxiv yav tom ntej. Cov polysilicon ntau lawm yog kev lag luam nrog cov peev txheej siab thiab kev thaiv kev ua haujlwm siab. Lub sijhawm tsim kho thiab ntau lawm puag ncig yog feem ntau yog ob xyoos lossis ntau dua. Nws yog qhov nyuaj rau cov tuam txhab tshiab txhawm rau nkag mus rau kev lag luam. Kev txiav txim los ntawm cov paub txog kev nthuav dav thiab cov haujlwm tshiab hauv peb lub peev xwm tom ntej, cov khoom siv ntau ntxiv, thiab txoj haujlwm MONOPOLY yuav nce mus ntxiv.
Nws tau kwv yees tias Tuam Tshoj cov pob zeb polysilicon yuav ua rau muaj kev loj hlob ntawm 2022 txog 2025, thiab polysilicon ntau lawm yuav ncav cuag ntawm lub ntiaj teb polysilicon ntau lawm nplai. Xyoo 2021, nrog lub ntsej muag ntse nyob rau hauv tus nqi polysilicon hauv Suav teb, cov tuam ntxhab tseem ceeb tau nqis peev ntau yam tsim khoom tshiab los koom nrog kev lag luam tshiab. Txij li cov haujlwm polysilicon yuav siv sijhawm tsawg kawg ib thiab ib nrab rau ob xyoos los ntawm kev tsim kho mus rau ntau lawm, kev tsim kho tshiab hauv 2021 yuav ua tiav. Muaj peev xwm ntau lawm feem ntau muab tso rau hauv kev tsim khoom hauv qib thib ob ntawm 2022 thiab 2023. Qhov no zoo heev nrog cov qauv npaj ua haujlwm tshiab tau tshaj tawm los ntawm cov tuam ntxhab tshiab. Lub peev xwm tshiab ntau lawm hauv 20225 yog feem ntau concentrated hauv 2022 thiab 2023. Tom qab cov polysilicon thiab tus nqi maj mam muab cov polysilicon thiab cov nqi sib zog ua kom ruaj khov rau hauv kev lag luam yuav maj mam tswj. Down, uas yog, txoj kev loj hlob ntawm cov khoom lag luam muaj peev xwm txo qis. Tsis tas li ntawd, lub peev xwm siv cov khoom lag luam polysilicon tau tseem nyob rau ntawm cov haujlwm loj hauv ob peb xyoos dhau los, tab sis nws yuav siv sij hawm rau cov neeg nkag tshiab los ua kom tiav cov thev naus laus zis. Yog li ntawd, lub peev xwm siv tau tus nqi ntawm cov polysilicon tej yaam num hauv ob peb xyoos tom ntej no yuav muaj tsawg. Los ntawm qhov no, cov polysilicon ntau lawm hauv 2022-2025 tuaj yeem kwv yees, thiab cov polysilicon ntau lawm hauv 2025 yuav tsum tau txog 1.194 lab tons.
Concentration ntawm agerseas ntau lawm yog tus nqi siab, thiab tus nqi thiab kev ceev ntawm peb lub xyoo tom ntej yuav tsis muaj siab npaum li ntawm Suav teb. Kev sib txawv polysilicon ntau lawm yog feem ntau concentrated nyob rau hauv plaub lub tuam txhab ua lag luam, thiab tus so yog qhov tseem ceeb me me. Hais txog cov khoom muaj ntau lawm, wacker chem nyob rau ib nrab ntawm txawv teb chaws polysilicon ntau lawm. Nws cov tuam txhab hauv Tebchaws Yelemees thiab Asmeskas muaj peev xwm ntau lawm ntawm 60,000 tons thiab 20,000 tons, feem. Lub peev xwm ntse ntawm lub ntiaj teb polysilicon ntau lawm muaj peev xwm nyob rau hauv 2022 thiab tshaj li yuav coj txog kev txhawj xeeb txog oversupply, lub tuam txhab tseem muaj peev xwm ntxiv cov peev xwm tshiab ntau lawm. Kentlam South polysilicon Giant OCI yog cov kab ntau pua hauv 202 nti Hauv Tebchaws Asmeskas thiab Kaus Lim Qab Teb. Lub tuam txhab npaj tsim 95,000 tons tab sis hnub pib tsis meej. Nws yuav tsum nce nyob rau theem ntawm 5,000 tons ib xyoos nyob rau plaub xyoos tom ntej. Cov tuam txhab Norwegian REC muaj ob lub hauv paus ntau lawm hauv cov polysilicon thiab ntau xyoo, nrog rau cov polysilicon. Rec, uas yog nyob rau hauv kev sib sib zog nqus kev ntxhov siab, thiab tom qab ntawd cov khoom lag luam hauv cov pob zeb polysilicon nyob rau hauv 2024, thiab tuaj yeem ua tiav cov khoom lag luam polysilicon hauv Tebchaws Meskas, tshwj xeeb hauv kev ua kom siab Kev-qib-qib polysilicon. Lub High-Tech Barriers rau ntau lawm ua rau nws nyuaj rau lub tuam txhab cov khoom yuav tsum tau hloov hauv khw. Ua ke nrog qhov tseeb tias lub tuam txhab tsis npaj los tsim cov phiaj xwm tshiab nyob hauv ob peb xyoos, nws yuav tsum tau hais tias lub tuam txhab tsim kev lag luam yuav yog 2022-2025. Cov zis txhua xyoo tseem nyob ntawm 18,000 tons. Ib qho ntxiv, hauv 2021, qhov kev tsim khoom tshiab ntau lawm ntawm cov tuam txhab uas tsis yog qhov saum toj no plaub lub tuam txhab yuav yog 5,000 tons. Vim tias tsis muaj kev nkag siab ntawm cov phiaj xwm ntau lawm ntawm txhua lub tuam txhab, nws yog kwv yees ntawm no yog 5,000 tons ib xyoos los ntawm 2025.
Raws li kev ua haujlwm txawv teb chaws, nws yog kwv yees tias txawv teb chaws polysilicon ntau lawm hauv 2025 yuav yog li 176,000 txog kev siv cov polysilicalon ntau dua tsis hloov pauv. Tom qab tus nqi ntawm Polysilicon tau nce siab dua hauv 2021, Suav Suav cov tuam txhab tau nce ntau lawm thiab nthuav ntau lawm. Hauv kev sib piv, cov tuam txhab txawv teb chaws muaj kev ceev faj ntau hauv lawv cov phiaj xwm rau cov haujlwm tshiab. Qhov no yog vim hais tias qhov dominance ntawm polysilicon kev lag luam yog twb tau nyob hauv kev tswj hwm ntawm Suav teb, thiab qhov muag tsis pom kev ntau lawm tuaj yeem nqa poob. Los ntawm tus nqi sab, kev siv hluav taws xob yog qhov feem ntau tiv thaiv tus nqi ntawm cov polysilicon, yog li tus nqi hluav taws xob tseem ceeb heev, Sichuan thiab lwm thaj av muaj qhov zoo. Los ntawm kev thov sab, raws li kev ncaj qha downstream ntawm polysilicon, Tuam Tshoj cov Silicon Wafer ntau lawm account rau ntau tshaj 99% ntawm lub ntiaj teb tag nrho. Kev lag luam hauv qab kev lag luam ntawm polysilicon yog feem ntau concentrated nyob rau hauv Suav teb. Tus nqi ntawm polysilicon tsim tawm yog tsawg, tus nqi thauj mus los yog tsawg, thiab qhov kev thov yog lav tau. Thib ob, Tuam Tshoj tau yuam kom cov khoom siv tawm ntawm cov khoom lag luam ntawm cov polysilicon los ntawm cov polysilicon, uas tau muaj ntau yam kev noj ntawm cov polysilicon los ntawm Asmeskas thiab Kaus Lim Qab Teb. Ceev faj hauv kev tsim cov phiaj xwm tshiab; Tsis tas li ntawd, nyob rau hauv xyoo tsis ntev los no, Suav txawv teb chaws Polysilicon cov txiaj ntsig tau qeeb, thiab lawv cov nyiaj txiag tsis txaus, yog li lawv yuav tsis muaj peev xwm txhawb nqa nws cov nyiaj txiag tau qeeb, thiab lawv cov nyiaj txiag tsis txaus, yog li lawv yuav tsis muaj txiaj ntsig los sis tsis muaj txiaj ntsig los txhawb nqa nws lub xyoo
Raws li qhov kev kwv yees ntawm polysilicon ntau lawm hauv Suav teb thiab txawv teb chaws los ntawm 2022 txog 2025, cov kwv yees tau muaj nuj nqis ntawm lub ntiaj teb polysilicon ntau lawm tuaj yeem suav tau. Nws yog kwv yees tias lub ntiaj teb polysilicon ntau lawm hauv 2025 yuav ncav cuag 1.371 lab tons. Raws li kev kwv yees tus nqi ntawm polysilicon ntau lawm, Tuam Tshoj cov sib qhia ntawm lub ntiaj teb kev faib tawm tuaj yeem yog cov kwv yees tau. Nws cia siab tias kev sib faib ntawm Tuam Tshoj yuav maj nthuav dav ntawm 2022 txog 2025, thiab nws yuav tau tshaj 87% hauv 2025.
6, Cov ntsiab lus thiab Outlook
Polysilicon nyob hauv qab ntawm kev lag luam silicon thiab ntws los ntawm tag nrho photovoltaic thiab semiconductor kev lag luam saw, thiab nws cov xwm txheej tseem ceeb heev. Lub photovoltaic cov saw feem ntau polysilicon-silicon wafe-module-module-moduelon-monocrystalline silicon wafer-silicon wafer-nti. Cov kev siv sib txawv muaj sib txawv yuav tsum muaj ntawm kev huv ntawm polysilicon. Kev lag luam photovoltaic feem ntau siv hnub ci-qib polysilicon, thiab semiconductor kev lag luam siv cov polysilicon. Cov qub muaj ntau yam ntawm 6n-8n, thaum tom kawg yuav tsum muaj kev coj dawb huv ntawm 9n lossis ntau dua.
Rau xyoo, cov txheej txheem tseem ceeb ntawm cov polysilicon tau ua tiav Siemens txoj kev thoob plaws ntiaj teb. Nyob rau hauv xyoo tsis ntev los no, qee cov tuam txhab tau tiv thaiv tus nqi qis qis hauv qab daus txaj, uas yuav muaj kev cuam tshuam rau cov qauv tsim khoom. Tus pas nrig ua ke tsim los ntawm cov qauv Siemens tau hloov kho cov yam ntxwv muaj zog ntawm lub zog uas muaj zog, thaum lub zog siab ntawm kev siv zog ntawm cov khoom noj kom muaj zog, tus nqi qis thiab tsis muaj kev coj dawb huv. Qee cov tuam txhab Suav tau pom tau tias huab hwm coj ntau lawm ntawm cov pob zeb silicon thiab thev naus laus zis ntawm kev siv cov polysilicon, tab sis nws tsis tau nce dav. Seb cov qub Silicon tuaj yeem hloov cov qub yav tom ntej nyob rau yav tom ntej nyob ntawm seb tus nqi puas yuav tau them rau cov kev siv hauv dej hauv qis, thiab kev txhim kho ntawm kev nyab xeeb ntawm kev ua si. Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los, lub ntiaj teb polysilicon kev tsim muaj ntau xyoo los ntawm xyoo los ntawm xyoo, thiab maj mam sib sau ua ke ntawm Suav teb. Los ntawm 2017 txog 2021, cov khoom lag luam polysilicon ntau ntxiv mus rau hauv 2021% hauv 2022 rau 2025, kev xa cov polysilicon yuav Siv nyob rau hauv txoj kev loj loj-teev kev loj hlob. Nws tau kwv yees tias polysilicon ntau lawm hauv 2025 yuav yog 1.194 lab tons nyob rau hauv Suav teb, thiab kev tsim tawm txawv teb chaws yuav ncav cuag 176,000 tons. Yog li no, lub ntiaj teb polysilicon ntau lawm hauv 2025 yuav yog li 1.37 lab tons.
(Kab lus no tsuas yog siv rau cov siv ntawm Ubanmines'Customers thiab tsis sawv cev rau cov lus qhia peev nyiaj)