ELECTRIC HUV | METALS 24 Nov 2021 | 20:42 UTC
Tus sau Jacqueline Holman
Editor Valarie Jackson
Cov Khoom Siv Hluav Taws Xob, Hlau
HIGHLIGHTS
Kev them nyiaj yug nqi kom nyob twj ywm rau seem ntawm 2021
Kev ua lag luam rov qab mus rau qhov seem ntawm 1,000 mt hauv 2022
Cov khoom lag luam muaj zog nce mus txog rau 2024 txhawm rau txhawb nqa kev lag luam nyiaj txiag
Cov nqi hlau cobalt yuav tsum tau txais kev txhawb nqa rau qhov seem ntawm 2021 vim tias muaj kev cuam tshuam rau kev thauj mus los, tab sis tom qab ntawd xav tias yuav poob 8.3% hauv 2022 ntawm kev loj hlob ntawm cov khoom lag luam thiab kev txo qis cov saw hlau tsis muaj zog, raws li S&P Ntiaj Teb Kev Lag Luam Kev Txawj Ntse Lub Kaum Ib Hlis Cov Khoom Muag Qhia luv luv qhia txog lithium. thiab cobalt, uas tau tso tawm lig Kaum Ib Hlis 23.
MI Senior Analyst, Hlau & Mining Kev Tshawb Fawb Alice Yu tau hais hauv tsab ntawv tshaj tawm tias kev loj hlob ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv tebchaws Democratic Republic of Congo thiab normalizing cov saw hlau fwj kev kwv yees rau thawj ib nrab xyoo 2022 tau xav tias yuav ua kom yooj yim cov khoom siv nruj hauv xyoo 2021.
Tag nrho cov khoom siv cobalt tau kwv yees rau tag nrho 196,000 mt hauv 2022, nce los ntawm 136,000 mt hauv 2020 thiab kwv yees li 164,000 mt hauv 2021.
Ntawm qhov kev thov sab, Yu kwv yees tias qhov kev thov cobalt yuav txuas ntxiv zuj zus raws li kev muag khoom hluav taws xob ntau dua li qhov cuam tshuam ntawm cobalt thrifting hauv roj teeb.
MI kwv yees tag nrho cobalt xav tau nce mus rau 195,000 mt hauv 2022, nce los ntawm 132,000 mt hauv 2020 thiab kwv yees li 170,000 mt hauv 2021.
Txawm hais tias, nrog cov khoom lag luam nce siab, tag nrho cov kev lag luam cobalt yuav tsum rov qab mus rau qhov seem ntawm 1,000 mt hauv 2022, tom qab hloov mus rau qhov kwv yees li ntawm 8,000 mt hauv 2021 los ntawm qhov seem ntawm 4,000 mt hauv 2020.
"Ib qho khoom lag luam muaj zog nce mus txog rau 2024 yuav txhawb nqa kev lag luam ntau ntxiv thaum lub sijhawm, thawb tus nqi," Yu hais hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom.
Raws li S&P Ntiaj Teb Platts kev ntsuam xyuas, European 99.8% cobalt hlau nqi tau nce 88.7% txij thaum pib ntawm 2021 txog $ 30 / lb IW Europe Kaum Ib Hlis 24, qib siab tshaj txij li lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2018, tshwm sim los ntawm kev nruj logistical bottlenecks uas cuam tshuam kev lag luam ntws thiab khoom siv. muaj.
"Tsis muaj cov cim qhia tias kev lag luam logistics tau yooj yim, nrog rau cov dej hauv av thiab chaw nres nkoj tsis muaj txiaj ntsig hauv South Africa ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam ntau dua los ntawm lub nkoj thoob ntiaj teb, kev xa khoom qeeb, thiab nqi ntau dua. [South African lub xeev-tus tswv lag luam logistics] Transnet tseem tab tom thov kom nce qhov chaw nres nkoj tariff los ntawm 23.96% hauv xyoo 2022-23 nyiaj txiag uas, yog tias siv tau, tuaj yeem txhawb nqa tus nqi thauj khoom siab, "Yu hais.
Nws tau hais tias tag nrho cov kev xav tau cobalt tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm kev rov ua kom dav dua hauv 2021 hauv metallurgical sector thiab PEVs, nrog rau kev lag luam aerospace pom kev xa khoom ntau ntxiv - Airbus thiab Boeing nce 51.5% xyoo rau xyoo - hauv thawj cuaj lub hlis ntawm 2021, Txawm hais tias cov no tseem tseem qis dua 23.8% piv nrog cov qib ua ntej kis thoob plaws hauv tib lub sijhawm xyoo 2019.