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Intengo yeI-Alumina(Aluminium oxide)isifinyelele izinga eliphezulu kule minyaka emibili, okuholela ekwandeni kokukhiqizwa yimboni ye-alumina yaseChina. Lokhu kunyuka kwezintengo ze-alumina emhlabeni wonke kushukumise abakhiqizi baseShayina ukuthi bakhulise amandla abo okukhiqiza futhi babambe ithuba lemakethe.
Ngokwemininingwane yakamuva evela kwaSMM International, ngoJuni 13thNgo-2024, izintengo ze-alumina eNtshonalanga ye-Australia zikhuphuke zafinyelela ku-$510 ngethani, okumaka ukuphakama okusha kusukela ngoMashi 2022. Ukwenyuka konyaka nonyaka kudlule ama-40% ngenxa yokuphazamiseka kokuhlinzeka ngasekuqaleni kwalo nyaka.
Lokhu kunyuka kwentengo okubalulekile kuvuselele umdlandla wokukhiqiza ngaphakathi kwemboni yase-China ye-alumina(Al2O3). U-Monte Zhang, umqondisi ophethe we-AZ Global Consulting, uveze ukuthi amaphrojekthi amasha ahlelelwe ukukhiqizwa eShandong, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia naseGuangxi phakathi nengxenye yesibili yalo nyaka. Ukwengeza, i-Indonesia ne-India nabo bakhuphula amandla abo okukhiqiza futhi bangase babhekane nezinselele zokuthengisela ngokweqile ezinyangeni eziyi-18 ezizayo.
Onyakeni odlule, ukuphazamiseka kokuhlinzekwa kwezidingo e-China nase-Australia kunyuse kakhulu amanani ezimakethe. Isibonelo, i-Alcoa Corp imemezele ukuvalwa kwendawo yayo yokuhluza i-alumina i-Kwinana enamandla onyaka angamathani ayizigidi ezi-2.2 emuva ngoMasingana. NgoMeyi, i-Rio Tinto yamemezela ukuthi i-force majeure ezimpahleni ezivela endaweni ehluzwayo ye-alumina ese-Queensland ngenxa yokushoda kwegesi yemvelo. Lesi simemezelo esingokomthetho sibonisa ukuthi izibopho zenkontileka ngeke zifezeke ngenxa yezimo ezingalawuleki.
Le micimbi ayigcinanga nje ngokudala ukuthi amanani e-alumina(aluminiyamu) e-London Metal Exchange (LME) afinyelele ukuphakama kwezinyanga ezingama-23 kodwa futhi anyuse izindleko zokukhiqiza i-aluminium ngaphakathi kwe-China.
Kodwa-ke, njengoba ukunikezwa kukhula kancane kancane, isimo sokuhlinzekwa okuqinile emakethe kulindeleke ukuthi sehle. U-Colin Hamilton, umqondisi wocwaningo lwempahla kwa-BMO Capital Markets, ulindele ukuthi amanani e-alumina azokwehla futhi asondele ezindlekweni zokukhiqiza, ehle phakathi kwebanga elingaphezu kuka-$300 ngethani. U-Ross Strachan, umhlaziyi we-CRU Group, uyavumelana nalokhu kubuka futhi usho ku-imeyili ukuthi ngaphandle kokuthi kube nokuphazamiseka okwengeziwe ekuhlinzekeni, ukukhuphuka kwentengo okubukhali kwangaphambilini kufanele kuphele. Ulindele ukuthi amanani ehle kakhulu ngokuhamba kwesikhathi kulo nyaka lapho ukukhiqizwa kwe-alumina kuqala futhi.
Noma kunjalo, umhlaziyi kaMorgan Stanley u-Amy Gower unikeza umbono oqaphile ngokuveza ukuthi i-China izwakalise inhloso yayo yokulawula ngokuqinile umthamo omusha wokucwenga we-alumina ongathinta ibhalansi yokuhlinzekwa kwemakethe kanye nesidingo. Embikweni wakhe, uGower uyagcizelela: “Esikhathini eside, ukukhula kokukhiqizwa kwe-alumina kungase kulinganiselwe. Uma i-China iyeka ukukhulisa umthamo wokukhiqiza, kungase kube nokushoda isikhathi eside emakethe ye-alumina.”