1, Isidingo se-Photovoltaic End: Isidingo samandla we-Photovoltaic afakiwe aqinile, futhi isidingo sePolysilicon sibuyiselwa emuva ngokususelwa ekukhulumeni kwamandla afakiwe
1.1. Ukusetshenziswa kwePolysilicon: Umhlaba wonkeIvolumu yokusebenzisa iyanda ngokuqinile, ikakhulukazi ngesizukulwane samandla we-Photovoltaic
Iminyaka eyishumi edlule, umhlaba jikelelepolysiliconUkusetshenziswa kuqhubeke ukukhuphuka, kanti ingxenye yeChina iye yaqhubeka yandise, iholwa imboni ye-Photovoltaic. Kusukela ngonyaka ka-2012 kuya ku-2021, ukusetshenziswa kwe-polysilicon okuvame ukukhombisa ukuthambekela okuphezulu, kukhuphuka kusuka kumathani angama-237,000 kuya ku-653,000 amathani. Ngo-2018, kwethulwa i-Photovoltaic's 531 Photovoltaic 331 Inqubomgomo entsha ye-Photovoltaic, yanciphisa ngokusobala izinga lokuxhaswa ngogesi we-Photovoltaic. Isikhundla esisanda kufakwa i-PhotoVoltaic sawa ngo-18% ngonyaka, futhi isidingo sePolysilicon siyathinteka. Kusukela ngonyaka ka-2019, umbuso wethule izinqubomgomo eziningi zokukhuthaza ukulingana kwegridi ye-Photovoltaics. Ngokuthuthuka okusheshayo kwemboni ye-Photovoltaic, isidingo sePolysilicon singene futhi isikhathi sokukhula ngokushesha. Ngalesi sikhathi, ingxenye yesilinganiso sokusetshenziswa kwePolysilicon yaseChina esiphelele ukusetshenziswa komhlaba kwaqhubeka ukukhuphuka, kusukela ngo-61.5% ngonyaka ka-2012 kuya ku-203.9% ngonyaka we-2021, ikakhulukazi ngenxa ye-Photovoltaic imboni ye-China. Ngokombono wephethini yokusetshenziswa komhlaba wonke kwezinhlobo ezahlukene zePolysilicon ngo-2021, izinto ze-Silicon ezisetshenziselwa ama-polysilicon zizolandisa okungenani ama-polysilicon, ngenkathi i-polysicon ye-polysicon ye-chips engasetshenziselwa ama-hips ama-94%. Isilinganiso singu-6%, esibonisa ukuthi isidingo samanje sePolysilicon siphethwe yi-Photovoltaics. Kulindeleke ukuthi ngokufudumala kwenqubomgomo ye-dual-carbon, isidingo samandla we-photovoltaic afakiwe azoba namandla, futhi ukusetshenziswa kanye nengxenye ye-solar-grade polysilicon kuzoqhubeka ukukhuphuka.
1.2. I-Silicon wafer: I-monocrystalline silicon wafer ihlala ekwakhiweni okujwayelekile, futhi ubuchwepheshe obuqhubekayo beCZOCHRASKKI bukhula ngokushesha
Isixhumanisi esiqondile se-Downstream sePolysilicon yi-Silicon Wafers, kanti iChina njengamanje ibusa imakethe ye-silicon wafer yomhlaba. Kusukela ngonyaka we-2012 kuya ku-2021, umthamo wokukhiqizwa kanye nomkhiqizo we-silicon wafer womhlaba wonke futhi waseChina waqhubeka wanda, futhi imboni ye-Photovoltaic yaqhubeka nokukhuphuka. I-Silicon Wafers isebenza njengebhuloho elixhuma izinto ze-silicon namabhethri, futhi akukho mthwalo othathweni lokukhiqiza, ngakho-ke kuyaqhubeka nokuheha inani elikhulu lezinkampani ukungena embonini. Ngo-2021, abakhiqizi be-silicon wafer baseChina baye bakhula kakhuluumkhiqizoAmandla okukhipha okungu-213.5gW, okwakudonsa umkhiqizo we-silicon we-silicon we-silicon ukwanda kuya ku-215.4gw. Ngokusho komthamo okhona futhi osanda kunyuka kakhulu eChina, kulindeleke ukuthi izinga lokukhula lonyaka lizogcina i-15-25% eminyakeni embalwa ezayo, futhi umkhiqizo wafer waseChina usazogcina isikhundla esivelele emhlabeni.
I-Polycrystalline Silicon ingenziwa ngezinduku ze-polycrystalline ailcon noma i-monocrystalline ama-silicon. Inqubo yokukhiqiza yePolycrystaltine Filicon Ingots ikakhulukazi ifaka indlela yokusebenzisa kanye nendlela eqondile yokuncibilika. Njengamanje, uhlobo lwesibili yindlela esemqoka, futhi izinga lokulahleka ligcinwa ngokuyisisekelo cishe ngo-5%. Indlela yokuphonsa ikakhulukazi ukuncibilikisa impahla ye-silicon ebekiwe kuqala, bese uyiphonsa kwelinye iseshayelwa ngokuphola. Ngokulawula isilinganiso sokupholisa, i-polycrystalline alicon ingot ye-silicon iphonswa ubuchwepheshe obuqinisayo bokuqina. Inqubo eshisayo eshisayo yendlela eqondile ehlukumezayo iyafana naleyo ndlela yokuphonsa, lapho i-polysilicon yancibilika ngqo entweni enokwethenjelwa kuqala, kepha isinyathelo sokupholisa sehlukile kwindlela yokupholisa. Yize izindlela ezimbili zifana kakhulu ngokwemvelo, indlela eqondile yokuncibilika idinga kuphela okubekiwe, futhi umkhiqizo wePorysilicon okhiqizwayo ungokwekhwalithi enhle, futhi inqubo yokukhula kulula ukuyisebenzisa, okungenza isimo sangaphakathi sephutha lephutha le-Crystal. Njengamanje, amabhizinisi aholayo embonini yezinto ezibonakalayo elanga ngokuvamile asebenzisa indlela eqondile yokuncibilika ukwenza i-polycrystalline ye-silicon ingots, kanye nokuqukethwe kwekhabhoni kanye ne-carbon no-16ppma. Ngokuzayo, ukukhiqizwa kwe-polycrystallineline silicon Ingots kuzosabuswa yindlela eqondile yokuncibilika, futhi izinga lokulahlekelwa lizohlala licishe libe ngu-5% kungakapheli iminyaka emihlanu.
Ukukhiqizwa kwe-Monocrystalline Silicon Rods ikakhulukazi kususelwa kwindlela ye-CZOCHRalSki, okufakwe yindlela yokumiswa mpo yokumiswa kwezindawo ukuncibilikisa indlela, futhi imikhiqizo ekhiqizwa laba bobabili inokusetshenziswa okuhlukile. Indlela ye-CZochRalski isebenzisa ukumelana kwe-graphite yokuvimbela i-polycrystallikal silicon egqoke i-quartz enobuhlanya eliphezulu kuhlelo lokushisa lweshubhu okuqondile ukuze unciphise, bese ufaka i-crystal yembewu ebusweni bencibilike, futhi ujikeleze i-crystal yembewu ngenkathi ungena e-crystal yembewu ngenkathi evikela i-crystal ebekiwe. , i-crystal yembewu iphakanyiswe kancane kancane, kanti i-monocrystalline silicon itholakala ngezinqubo zokutshala, ukukhulisa, ukuguquka kwamahlombe, ukukhula okulingana okulinganayo, nokuqeda. Indlela eqonde mpo ezintantayo inciphayo isho ukulungisa impahla ye-polycrystal ephezulu yokuhlanzeka egumbini lomlilo, bese idlula i-coilcrystal Held Herencystallika, bese idlula imvamisa ye-polycrystaline yensimbi ukuze wenze ingxenye ye-coil yensimbi ye-polycrystalline frient, nangemva kwekhoyili iyahanjiswa, ukuncibilika okuhlehlisile ukwakha ikristalu eyodwa. Ngenxa yezinqubo ezahlukahlukene zokukhiqiza, kunomehluko emishini yokukhiqiza, izindleko zokukhiqiza kanye nekhwalithi yomkhiqizo. Njengamanje, imikhiqizo etholwe yindlela yokuncibilika ye-zone ehlanza ubumsulwa obukhulu futhi ingasetshenziselwa ukwakhiwa kwamadivayisi we-semiconductor, kuyilapho indlela ye-czochralski ingahlangana nemibandela yokukhiqiza izimo ze-Crystal Silico eyodwa yamaseli we-Photovoltal futhi inendlela ephansi, ngakho-ke kuyindlela ephansi. Ngo-2021, isabelo semakethe sendlela eqondile yokudonsa singama-85%, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi sikhule kancane eminyakeni embalwa ezayo. Ama-Market ahlanganyela ngo-2025 kanti ama-2030 abikezelwa ukuthi abe ngu-87% no-90% ngokulandelana. Ngokuya ngesikhungo sokuncibilika single crystal silico, ukugxilwa kwezimboni zokuncibilika kwesifunda esisodwa i-Crystal Silicong ephezulu kakhulu emhlabeni. ukutholwa), topsil (denmark). Ngokuzayo, isilinganiso sokukhipha se-molten eyodwa Crystal Silicon ngeke sandise kakhulu. Isizathu ukuthi ubuchwepheshe obuhlobene baseChina buye emuva buyabuya uma kuqhathaniswa neJapan neJalimane, ikakhulukazi umthamo wemishini yokushisa okufudumele okuphezulu kanye nezimo zenqubo ye-crystallization. Ubuchwepheshe be-filicon eyodwa crystal eyodwa endaweni enkulu yobubanzi budinga amabhizinisi aseChina ukuze aqhubeke nokuzihlola ngokwawo.
Indlela ye-CZochRalski ingahlukaniswa yaba ubuchwepheshe obuqhubekayo be-Crystal Donling Technology (CCZ) kanye ne-Revent Crystal Delling Technology (RCZ). Njengamanje, indlela ejwayelekile embonini i-RCZ, esesigabeni sokushintsha kusuka ku-RCZ kuya ku-CCZ. I-Crystal Crystal edonsa futhi ukondla izinyathelo ze-RZC azimele komunye nomunye. Ngaphambi kokudonsa ngakunye, ifolithi elilodwa le-crystal kumele liphonswe bese lisuswa egumbini lasesangweni, kuyilapho i-CCZ ingabona ukondla nokuncibilikisa ngenkathi idonsa. I-RCZ ivuthiwe, futhi kunendawo encane yokuthuthuka kwezobuchwepheshe ngokuzayo; Ngenkathi i-CCZ inezinzuzo zokunciphisa izindleko kanye nokwenza ngcono ukuthuthukiswa, futhi isesigabeni sokuthuthuka okusheshayo. Ngokuya kwezindleko, uma kuqhathaniswa ne-RCZ, ethatha cishe amahora angama-8 ngaphambi kokuba kudonswe induku eyodwa, ukunciphisa izindleko ezisebenzayo nokusetshenziswa kwamandla ngokuqeda lesi sinyathelo. Umphumela ophelele wokuhambisa isithando esingu-20 ungaphezulu kwama-20% aphezulu kunaleso se-RCZ. Izindleko zokukhiqiza zingaphezu kwe-10% ephansi kune-RCZ. Ngokuya ngokusebenza kahle, i-CCZ ingaqedela umdwebo wezinduku ezingama-8-10 ze-crystal silicon ngaphakathi komjikelezo wempilo ye-Crucible (amahora angama-250), ngenkathi i-RCZ ingaqedwa kuphela ngo-4, futhi ukusebenza kahle kokukhiqiza kungandiswa ngo-100-150%. Ngokuya kwekhwalithi, i-CCZ inokuphikiswa okufanayo, okuqukethwe okuphansi komoya-mpilo, nokuqongelelwa kancane kokungcola kwensimbi, ngakho-ke kufanelekile kakhulu ukulungiswa kwe-N-Type Crystal Silicon Wafers, futhi ngesikhathi sokuthuthuka okusheshayo. Njengamanje, ezinye izinkampani zamaShayina zimemezele ukuthi zinobuchwepheshe be-CCZ, kanye nendlela ye-Granurar Silicon-CCZ-N-Type Moocrystalline Silicon Wafers ibilokhu icacile, futhi iye yaqala nokusebenzisa izinto ze-silicon ze-granur. . Esikhathini esizayo, i-CCZ izothatha isikhundla se-RCZ, kepha izothatha inqubo ethile.
Inqubo yokukhiqiza ye-Monocrystalline Silicon Wafers ihlukaniswe izinyathelo ezine: ukudonsa, ukubheja, ukushelela, ukuhlanza nokuhlunga. Ukuvela kwendlela yedayimane ye-diamond wire slicing sekunciphise kakhulu isilinganiso sokulahleka kokudla. Inqubo yokudonsa yekristalu ichazwe ngenhla. Inqubo yokusika ifaka phakathi ukuncishiswa, ukugaya, kanye nokusebenza kokuhlangana. I-Slicing ukusebenzisa umshini wokulingisa ukusika i-silicon ye-columnar ibe ama-silicon weafers. Ukuhlanza nokuhlunga yizinyathelo zokugcina ekukhiqizweni kwe-Silicon Wafers. Indlela yedayimane ye-diamond wire slicing inezinzuzo ezisobala ngaphezulu kwendlela yokulala ye-wire isilayidi sokudla, okubonakala ikakhulu ukusetshenziswa okufushane nokulahleka okuphansi. Ijubane le-diamond wire liphindwe kahlanu lokho kokusika kwendabuko. Isibonelo, ukusika okukodwa okudala, ukusikwa kwesiyingi sendabuko kuthatha amahora acishe abe ngu-10, futhi ukusika kwe-diamond wire kuthatha cishe amahora ama-2. Ukulahleka kokusika kwe-diamond wire kuncane futhi kuncane, futhi ungqimba womonakalo olubangelwa ukugawulwa kwe-diamond wire kuncane kunaleso sokusika ucingo ngodaka, okulungele ukusika ama-silicon we-fireners. Eminyakeni yamuva nje, ukuze kuncishiswe ukulahleka kokusika kanye nezindleko zokukhiqiza, izinkampani ziphendukele ezindleleni zedayimane ze-wire slicing, kanti ububanzi bemigoqo yebhasi yedayimane ye-diamond wire ithola phansi futhi iphansi. Ngo-2021, ububanzi be-diamond wire burbar buzoba ngu-43-56 μm, kanye nobubanzi bebhasi lebhasi le-diamond wire busbar elisetshenziselwe ama-silicon we-silicon azokwehla kakhulu futhi aqhubeke nokuncipha. Kulinganiselwa ukuthi ngo-2025 no-2030, amadayimane amabhasi e-diamond wirebars asetshenziselwa ukusika amabhasi e-silicon we-silicon kanye nama-33 μm, ngokulandelana ama-silicon we-silicon azobe e-51 μm, ngokulandelana. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi kunezinkinga eziningi nokungcola ku-polycrystallineline ama-silicon weafers, kanti izintambo ezincanyana zithambekele ekuqhekekeni. Ngakho-ke, ububanzi bebhasi le-diamond wire busbar elisetshenziselwe ukusikwa kwe-polycrystalline silicon wafer ukusika kukhulu kunalokho kwe-monocrystalline ama-silicon kancane kancane, kusetshenziselwa ukuncishiswa kwesigaxa se-polycrystalline
Njengamanje, ama-silicon weafers ahlukaniswe ngezinhlobo ezimbili: ama-silicon we-silicon ama-silicon we-silicon we-minocrystalline. I-Monocrystalline Silicon Wafers inezinzuzo zempilo ende yenkonzo nokusebenza kahle kwezithombe eziphakeme. Ama-Silicon Wafers e-PolycryStalline akhiwa ngama-crystal srains ahlukene ama-crystal planeliation, ngenkathi ama-wilicon ama-silicon ahlukile enziwe nge-polycrystallineline silico njengezinto zokwakha eziluhlaza futhi zine-crystal plane ukuqondisisa. Ngokubukeka, ama-silicon we-silicon we-polycrystalline kanye nama-silicon we-silicon eyodwa aluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka nombala onsundu. Njengoba bobabili basikwa kusuka ku-polycrystalline amangoti ama-silicon ingots kanye ne-monocrystalline filicon izinduku, ngokulandelana, amajamo ayisikwele ne-quasi-square. Impilo yenkonzo ye-polycrystallineline silicon wafers kanye ne-monocrystalline ailIcon Wafers cishe iminyaka engama-20. Uma indlela yokupakisha nokusebenzisa indawo kufanelekile, impilo yenkonzo ingafinyelela ngaphezu kweminyaka engama-25. Ngokuvamile, i-Lifespan of Monocrystalline Silicon Wafers kancane kancane kunaleyo ye-polycrystalline ailcon wafers. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ama-silicon we-minocrystalline we-silicon nawo angcono kancane ekusebenzeni kahle kwe-photoleelectric ukuguqulwa, kanye nokungaziphathi kahle kanye nokungcola kwensimbi kuncane kakhulu kunaleyo ye-polycrystalline ailcon wafers. Umphumela ohlanganisiwe wezinto ezahlukahlukene wenza impilo encane ye-Carrity yempilo yekristalu eyodwa kaningi kunaleyo ye-polycrystallineline ailcon walers. Ngaleyo ndlela ekhombisa inzuzo yokuguqulwa kahle. Ngo-2021, ukusebenza kahle okuphezulu kakhulu kwe-polycrystallineline silicon walers kuzoba cishe ngo-21%, nokuthi ama-wefers e-monocrystalline wilicon azofinyelela kuma-24,2%.
Ngaphezu kwempilo ende nokusebenza kahle kokuguqulwa okuphezulu, ama-wenocrystalline we-silicon we-silicon nawo anenzuzo yokuncipha, okulungele ukunciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwe-silicon kanye nezindleko ze-silicon wafer, kepha zinake ukwanda kwezinga lokuqhekeka. Ukuncipha kwe-Silicon Wafers kusiza ukunciphisa izindleko zokukhiqiza, futhi inqubo yamanje yokulingisa ingahlangabezana ngokuphelele nezidingo zokuncipha, kepha ubukhulu be-Silicon Wafers kumele futhi bahlangabezane nezidingo zesethi ephansi yomfula kanye nokukhiqizwa kwengxenye. Ngokuvamile, ukushuba kwama-silicon weafers kuncipha eminyakeni yamuva nje, futhi ubukhulu be-polycrystallineline balicon wafers bukhulu kakhulu kunalokho kwe-monocrystalline ailIcon wafers. I-Monocrystalline Silicon Wafers ihlukaniswe futhi ihlukaniswe izintambo ze-silicon ye-silicon kanye ne-p-hlobo ama-silicon ama-wafers, ngenkathi i-n-witricon ama-wafers ikakhulukazi ifaka ukusetshenziswa kwebhethri kwebhethri le-topcon kanye nokusetshenziswa kwebhethri le-HJT. Ngo-2021, ubukhulu bokuqina kwe-polycrystallineline silicon wafers ngu-178μM, kanye nokuntuleka kwesidingo esikhathini esizayo kuzobashayela ukuba baqhubeke nokuncipha. Ngakho-ke, kubikezelwa ukuthi ukushuba kuzokwehla kancane kusuka ngo-2022 kuya ku-2024, futhi ubukhulu buzohlala cishe ngo-170μM ngemuva kuka-2025; Ubukhulu obujwayelekile be-P-Type MonOcrystalline Wincon Ama-Silicon ama-Silicon acishe abe ngu-170μm, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi anciphise ku-155μm no-140μm ngo-2025 no-2030. I-165μm. 135μm.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukukhiqizwa kwe-polycrystaltine ailIcon Wafers kudla i-silicon enkulu kune-monocrystalline we-Silicon Wafers, kepha izinyathelo zokukhiqiza zilula, eziletha izinzuzo zezindleko ku-polycrystalline ama-Silicon Wafers. I-PolycryStalline Silico, njengento evamile eluhlaza ye-polycrystalline ama-Silicon Wafers kanye ne-Monocrystalline Silicon Wafers, inokusetshenziswa okuhlukile ekukhiqizweni kokuhlanzeka kwezinyathelo ezimbili. Ngo-2021, ukusetshenziswa kwe-silicon kwe-polycrystalline ingot kungu-1.10 kg / kg. Kulindelwe ukuthi ukutshalwa kwezimali okulinganiselwe ocwaningweni nasekuthuthukisweni kuzoholela ezinguquko ezincane ngokuzayo. Ukusetshenziswa kwe-silicon kwenduku yokudonsa kungu-1.066 kg / kg, futhi kukhona igumbi elithile lokwenza kahle. Kulindeleke ukuthi kube ngu-1.05 kg / kg kanye ne-1.043 kg / kg ngo-2025 no-2030, ngokulandelana. Enqubweni yokudonsa ye-crystal eyodwa, ukuncishiswa kokusetshenziswa kwe-silicon kwenduku yokudonsela kungatholakala ngokunciphisa ukulahlekelwa kokuhlanza nokuchithwa, ukunciphisa ngokulingana kwezindawo zokukhiqiza, nokwenza ngcono ukuhlukaniswa kwezinto zokwenziwa kanye nokucutshungulwa kwezinto zokwakha ama-silicon. Yize ukusetshenziswa kwe-silicon kwe-polycrystallineline silicon wafers kuphezulu, izindleko zokukhiqiza ze-polycrystaltine ama-silicon we-silicon zikhiqizwa ngokukhula okushisayo kwe-Ingot, lapho i-monocrystalline inots ikhiqizwa ngokukhula kancane eCzochRalski Single Crystal Foundant, idla amandla aphezulu. Ephansi. Ngo-2021, izindleko ezijwayelekile zokukhiqiza ze-monocrystalline ailafers zizoba cishe ngo-0,673 yuan / W, nokuthi ama-polycrystallineline we-Silicon Wafers azoba ngu-0.66 yuan / W.
Njengoba ubukhulu be-silicon wafer buhla futhi ububanzi bebhasi le-diamond wire busbar buyehla, umphumela wezinduku ze-silicon Ngokuya kwamandla, amandla asetshenziswa yi-salicon wafer ngayinye ayahlukahluka ngokuya ngohlobo nosayizi. Ngo-2021, okukhishwayo kwe-P-Type Ubukhulu be-Monocrystalline Barge cishe izingcezu ezingama-64 ngekhilogremu ngayinye, kanye nokukhishwa kwe-Polycrystalline Ama-Ingots cishe izingcezu ezingama-59. Phakathi kohlobo lwe-P-Typer Crystal Silicon Wafers, okuphumayo kwe-158.75mm usayizi we-monocrystalline izimbotshana cishe amakhilogremu angama-70 ama-crystal skwele acishe ibe ngamakhilogremu angamakhilogremu angamakhilogremu angama-50mm single Crystal Rods nge-53 izingcezu ezingaba ngu-53. Ukukhishwa kwebha yesikwele kucishe kube yizicucu ezingama-40. Kusuka ku-2022 kuya ku-2030, ukuncipha okuqhubekayo kwe-silicon Wafers kuzobe kungaholela ekukhuphukeni kwenani lezinduku ze-silicon / ingots yevolumu efanayo. Ububanzi obuncane bebhasi le-diamond wire burbar kanye nosayizi ophakathi kwezinhlayiyana kuzosiza ukunciphisa ukulahleka kokusika, ngaleyo ndlela kwandise inani lama-wafers akhiqizwayo. ubungako. Kulinganiselwa ukuthi ngo-2025 no-2030, umphumela we-P-Type usayizi we-P-Monocrystalline izimbotshana cishe ngamakhilogremu angama-71 nezingxenye ezingama-62, okubangelwa izingcezu eziphansi ze-polycrystalline ama-silicon we-silicon Kunokwehluka emandleni ezinhlobo ezahlukahlukene nosayizi we-silicon wafers. Ngokusho kwedatha yesimemezelo yamandla aphakathi we-158.75mm silicon we-Silicon imayelana ne-5.8W / Piece, amandla aphakathi we-silicon we-silicon acishe abe ngu-6.25W / Piece, futhi amandla ajwayelekile we-Silicon Wafers acishe abe ngu-625w / ucezu. Amandla ajwayelekile osayizi we-silicon wafer acishe abe ngu-7.49w / ucezu, futhi amandla aphakathi wesayizi we-silicon wesayizi we-silicon imayelana ne-10W / ucezu.
Eminyakeni yamuva, ama-Silicon Wafers athuthukiswe kancane kancane engxenyeni enkulu, futhi usayizi omkhulu uyasiza ukwandisa amandla e-chip eyodwa, ngaleyo ndlela anciphise izindleko ezingezona ze-silicon zamaseli. Kodwa-ke, ukulungiswa kobukhulu be-Silicon Wafers nakho kudinga ukucubungula ukufana kwe-Uptream kanye ne-Downstream kanye nezinkinga ezijwayelekile, ikakhulukazi umthwalo nezingqinamba eziphakeme zamanje. Njengamanje, kunamakamu amabili emakethe maqondana nokuqondiswa kokuthuthuka kwesikhathi esizayo kosayizi we-silicon wafer, okungukuthi ngosayizi we-182mm nosayizi we-210mm. Isiphakamiso se-182mm ikakhulukazi ngokubuka kokuhlanganiswa kwezimboni okuqondile, ngokususelwa ekuhlolweni kokufakwa kwamaseli we-Photovoltaic, amandla kanye nokusebenza kahle kwamamojula, kanye nokushintshwa kwamamojula, kanye nomfula; Ngenkathi i-210mm ikakhulukazi ngombono wezindleko zokukhiqiza kanye nezindleko zohlelo. Ukukhishwa kwezinsimbi ze-silicon ezingama-210mm kukhuphuke ngaphezu kwe-15% kwinqubo yokudweba ye-line-realoce yenduku, izindleko zokukhiqiza zebhethri ezansi zincishiswa cishe ngo-0,02 yuan / w, kanye nezindleko eziphelele zokwakhiwa kwesiteshi samandla kwancishiswa cishe ngo-0,1 yuan / W. Eminyakeni embalwa ezayo, kulindeleke ukuthi ama-silicon wafers anosayizi ongaphansi kwe-166mm azoqedwa kancane kancane; Izinkinga ezifanayo ze-Upstream nezasehle kakhulu ezingama-210mm Silicon Wafers zizoxazululwa kancane kancane, futhi izindleko zizoba yinto ebaluleke kakhulu ethinta ukutshalwa kwezimali kanye nokukhiqizwa kwamabhizinisi. Ngakho-ke, isabelo semakethe esingama-silicon we-silicon angama-210mm siyanda. Ukusukuma okuqinile; I-182mm silicon wafer izoba ngosayizi ojwayelekile emakethe ngenxa yezinzuzo zayo ngokukhiqiza okuhlanganisiwe, kodwa ngokuthuthukiswa kwe-210mm silicon wafer technology, 182mm uzokunika yona. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kunzima ukuthi ama-silicon we-silicon asetshenziswa kakhulu ukuze asetshenziswe kabanzi emakethe eminyakeni embalwa ezayo, ngoba ubungozi bokufakwa kwe-silicon ama-wafers amakhulu buzokhulisa kakhulu, okunzima ukususwa ngokonga izindleko zokukhiqiza kanye nezindleko zohlelo. . Ngo-2021, osayizi be-silicon wafer emakethe bafaka i-156.75mm, 157mm, 1565mm, ngo-166mm, njll. I-166mm isixazululo esikhulu kunazo zonke esingenziwa ngcono umugqa wokukhiqiza webhethri okhona, ozoba ngosayizi omkhulu kule minyaka emibili edlule. Ngokwesilinganiso sosayizi wokushintsha, kulindeleke ukuthi ukwabiwa kwemakethe kuzoba ngaphansi kuka-2% ngo-2030; Usayizi ohlanganisiwe we-182mm no-210mm uzolandisa ngo-45% ngo-2021, futhi isabelo semakethe sizokhuphuka ngokushesha ngokuzayo. Kulindeleke ukuthi isabelo semakethe esiphelele ngo-2030 sizodlula ama-98%.
Eminyakeni yamuva nje, isabelo semakethe sikaMonocrystalline Silicon siqhubeke sanda, futhi sihlale isikhundla esijwayelekile emakethe. Kusuka ku-2012 kuye ku-2021, ingxenye ye-monocrystalline silicon yasukuma kusukela ngaphansi kwama-20% kuya ku-93.3%, ukwanda okukhulu. Ngo-2018, ama-safers e-silicon emakethe ikakhulukazi ama-silicon we-silicon we-accounting, afaka imali engaphezu kwama-50%. Isizathu esiyinhloko ukuthi izinzuzo zobuchwepheshe ze-monocrystalline ama-silicon we-silicon azikwazi ukumboza izindleko ezingezinhle. Kusukela ngonyaka we-2019, njengoba ukusebenza kahle kwe-PhotoElectric of Monocrystalline Silicon Wafers sekudlule kakhulu lokho kwe-Polycrystalline Ama-Silicon Wafers, isabelo semakethe se-monocrystalline ama-Silicon Wafers siqhubeke nokwehla, sibe yimishini emakethe. umkhiqizo. Kulindelwe ukuthi inani le-monocrystalline ailafers lizofinyelela cishe ngo-96% ngo-2025, futhi isabelo semakethe se-monocrystalline wilicon ama-silicon wilcon sizofinyelela kuma-97.7% ngonyaka ka-207.7. (Umthombo wokucabanga: ithangi lesikhathi esizayo)
1.3. Amabhethri: Amabhethri e-Perc abusa imakethe, futhi ukuthuthukiswa kwamabhethri we-N-Type acindezela ikhwalithi yomkhiqizo
Ukuxhumeka kwe-Midstream kwe-Photovoltaic Imboni Chain kufaka amaseli we-Photovoltaic kanye nama-module we-Photovoltaic Cell. Ukucutshungulwa kwe-Silicon Wafers kumaseli kuyisinyathelo esibaluleke kunazo zonke ekufezekiseni ukuguqulwa kwePhothiectric. Kuthatha cishe izinyathelo eziyisikhombisa ukucubungula iseli elijwayelekile kusuka ku-silicon wafer. Okokuqala, faka i-silicon wafer kwi-hydrofluoric acid ukukhiqiza isakhiwo se-suede esinjengephiramidi ebusweni bayo, ngaleyo ndlela kunciphise ukuqhathanisa ukukhanya kwelanga nokwandisa ukumuncwa kokukhanya; Okwesibili i-phosphorus isetshenziswa ebusweni ngakolunye uhlangothi lwe-silicon wafer ukwakha i-PN Junction, futhi ikhwalithi yawo ngqo ithinta ngokuqondile ukusebenza kahle kweseli; Okwesithathu ukususa i-PN Junction okwakhelwe eceleni kwesihlalo se-silicon ngesikhathi sokuphazamiseka kwesiteji sokuvimbela umjikelezo omfushane weseli; Ungqimba lwefilimu le-silicon nitride luhlanganiswe ohlangothini lapho kwakhiwa khona ukuhlangana kwe-PN ukwehlisa ukuboniswa okulula futhi ngasikhathi sinye ukukhulisa ukusebenza kahle; Okwesihlanu ukuphrinta ama-electrodes wensimbi ngaphambili nangemuva lesilicon wafer ukuqoqa abathwali abambalwa abakhiqizwa ama-photovoltaics; Indilinga ephrintiwe endaweni yokuphrinta isono yakhiwa, futhi ihlanganiswe ne-silicon wafer, okungukuthi, iseli; Ekugcineni, amangqamuzana anezinto ezihlukile ahlukaniswa.
Amaseli e-Crystalline Silicon ajwayele ukwenziwa nge-Silicon Wafers njengezigatshana, futhi angahlukaniswa ngamaseli we-P-Type nama-N-Type cell ngohlobo lwama-Silicon Wafers. Phakathi kwazo, amaseli we-N-Type anokuguqulwa okuphezulu okuphezulu futhi kancane kancane afaka esikhundleni se-P-Type cell eminyakeni yamuva. I-P-Type Silicon Wafers yenziwa ngeDoping Silico neBoron, kanye nohlobo lwe-n-wilicon ama-wafers enziwe nge-phosphorus. Ngakho-ke, ukugcwaliseka kwe-boron element ku-n-witri wafer kuphansi, ngaleyo ndlela kuvinjelwe isibopho sezakhiwo ze-boron-oxygen, zithuthukisa isikhathi sokuphila kwe-silicon, futhi ngasikhathi sinye, akukho ndawo edonswe ngebhethri ebhethri. Ngaphezu kwalokho, abathwali bezinhlobo ezincane bayizimbobo ezimbalwa, izithwali ze-P-Type Microsity ngama-elektroni, kanye nengxenye yokuphamba kwama-athomu amaningi okungcola kwezimbobo mancane kunalokho kwama-elektroni. Ngakho-ke, isikhathi sokuphila esincanyana sokuphila kweseli le-N-Type siphezulu futhi isilinganiso sokuguqulwa kwe-PhotoElectric siphezulu. Ngokusho kwemininingwane yelebhu, umkhawulo ophezulu wokuguqulwa kahle kwamaseli we-P-Type angu-24,5%, futhi ukusebenza kahle kwamaseli we-N-Type afinyelela ku-28.7%, ngakho-ke amangqamuzana e-N-Type amele ukuqondiswa kobuchwepheshe besikhathi esizayo. Ngo-2021, amaseli we-N-Type (ikakhulukazi kufaka phakathi amaseli we-heterojuction nama-topcon cell) anezindleko eziphakeme kakhulu, futhi isilinganiso sokukhiqizwa kwabantu abaningi sisencane. Isabelo semakethe samanje singaba ngu-3%, okufana nalokho ngo-2020.
Ngo-2021, ukusebenza kahle kwamaseli we-N-Type kuzothuthukiswa kakhulu, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi kube khona indawo ethe xaxa yentuthuko yezobuchwepheshe eminyakeni emihlanu ezayo eminyakeni emihlanu ezayo. Ngo-2021, ukukhiqizwa okuphezulu kwamaseli we-P-Type Moocrystalline kuzosebenzisa ubuchwepheshe be-PERC, futhi ukusebenza okuphakathi kokuguqulwa kuzofika ku-23.1%, ukukhuphuka kwamaphesenti angama-0,3 kuqhathaniswa no-2020; Ukuguqulwa kokuguqulwa kwamaseli we-polycrystalline ama-silicon amangqamuzana e-Perc azofinyelela ku-21.0%, kuqhathaniswa no-2020. Ukwanda kwamaphesenti angu-0.2; Ukuthuthuka okujwayelekile kwe-polycrystalline Black Silicon Cell ukuthuthukiswa akunamandla, ukusebenza kahle kokuguqulwa ngo-2021 kuzoba cishe ngo-19,5%, indawo ephakeme ye-0,1 ukuphakama okuphezulu, futhi indawo yokuthuthukisa ukusebenza kahle ilinganiselwe; Ukusebenza okuphakathi kokuguqulwa kwama-Ingot Monocrystalline Perc amaseli angama-22.4%, okungamaphoyinti angamaphesenti angama-0.7 aphansi kunalokho kwamaseli we-Moocrystalline Perc; Ukusebenza okujwayelekile kokuguqulwa kwama-Tidce cell afinyelela kuma-24%, kanye nokusebenza okuphakathi kokuguqulwa kwamaseli we-heterojumnt cell kufinyelela kuma-24,2%, zombili eziguqulwe kakhulu kumaseli we-IBC afinyelela kuma-24.2%. Ngokuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe ngokuzayo, ubuchwepheshe bebhethri obunjenge-TBC ne-HBC bungaqhubeka nokuthuthuka. Ngokuzayo, ngokuncishiswa kwezindleko zokukhiqiza kanye nokwenza ngcono isivuno, amabhethri ezinhlobo ze-N-Type azoba ngenye yezinkomba eziphambili zokuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe bebhethri.
Ngokombono wendlela yobuchwepheshe bebhethri, ukuvuselelwa kobuchwepheshe bebhethri ikakhulukazi nge-BSF, i-Perc, i-TopCon kususelwa ekuthuthukisweni kwe-perc, kanye ne-HJT, ubuchwepheshe obusha obuhlukanisa i-perc; I-TopCon ingahlanganiswa futhi nge-IBC ukwakha i-TBC, futhi i-HJT nayo ingahlanganiswa ne-IBC ukuze ibe yi-HBC. Amangqamuzana we-P-Type Monocrystalline ikakhulukazi asebenzisa ubuchwepheshe be-PEPC, amaseli we-polycrystallines afaka ama-polycrystalline amaseli we-minocrystalline amnyama, okugcina kubhekiswa kokungezwa kwe-monocrystalline yembewu ngesisekelo senqubo evamile ye-polycrystaline, ukuqina kwe-silicon Ihlanganiswe ne-crystal eyodwa ne-polycrystalline yenziwa ngochungechunge lwezinqubo zokucubungula. Ngoba empeleni isebenzisa umzila wokulungiselela we-polycrystalline, ifakiwe esigabeni samaseli weP-Type Polycrystalline. Amangqamuzana we-N-Type ikakhulukazi afaka amaseli we-Topcon Monocrystalline, amaseli we-HJT Monocrystalline namaseli we-IBC Monocrystalline. Ngo-2021, imigqa emisha yokukhiqiza ubuningi isazobuswa yi-Perc Celle Production Lines, kanti nokwabelana ngemakethe kwamaseli we-PERC kuzokwengeziwe ku-91.2%. Njengoba ukufunwa komkhiqizo kwamaphrojekthi angaphandle nawendlu kugxile emikhiqizweni esebenza kahle, isabelo semakethe samabhethri e-BSF sizokwehla kusuka ku-8.8% kuye ku-5% ngo-2021.
1.4. Amamojula: Izindleko zama-cell ama-akhawunti wengxenye eyinhloko, namandla amamojula ancike kumaseli
Izinyathelo zokukhiqiza zamamojula we-Photovoltaic ikakhulukazi zifaka phakathi ukuxhumana kweseli kanye nokukhanyisela, kanye ne-cell account ngengxenye enkulu yezindleko eziphelele zemodyuli. Njengoba amanje namandla athile eseli elilodwa anciphile kakhulu, amaseli adinga ukuxhumeka ngemigoqo yamabhasi. Lapha, axhunyiwe ngochungechunge ukukhulisa amavolutela, bese exhumeka ngokufana ukuze athole okuphezulu, bese kuthi i-photovoltaic glass, ishidi le-eva, ekugcineni licindezelwe ngokulandelana okuthile, bese ekugcineni livinjelwe ngohlaka lwe-aluminium kanye nonqenqemeni lokubekwa uphawu. Ngokombono we-Contenent Production Fork Combition, ama-akhawunti wezindleko zezinto ezibonakalayo angu-75%, ahlala endaweni eyinhloko, elandelwa yizindleko zokukhiqiza, izindleko zokusebenza kanye nezindleko zabasebenzi. Izindleko zezinto zokwakha ziholwa yizindleko zamaseli. Ngokusho kwezimemezelo ezivela ezinkampanini eziningi, i-cell account cishe 2/3 yezindleko eziphelele zamamojula we-Photovoltaic.
Amamojula we-Photovoltaic avame ukuhlukaniswa ngokuya ngohlobo lweseli, usayizi, nenani. Kunokwehluka emandleni amamojula ahlukene, kepha bonke basesiteji esikhuphukayo. Amandla yinkomba ebalulekile yamamojula we-Photovoltaic, amele ikhono lemodyuli lokuguqula amandla elanga abe ngogesi. Kungabonakala kwizibalo zamandla zezinhlobo ezahlukene zamamojula we-Photovoltaic lapho usayizi nenombolo yamaseli kumodyuli kufana, amandla wemodyuli yi-N-Typer Crystal> POYBRYStalline> Polycrystalline; Likhulu usayizi nobungako, likhudlwana amandla wemodyuli; Kwimojula ye-topcon eyodwa ye-crystal namamojula we-heterojustction demoveli yokucaciswa okufanayo, amandla okugcina mkhulu kunalokho kwangaphambili. Ngokusho kwesimo sezulu se-CPIA, amandla weModule azokwanda ngo-5-10W ngonyaka eminyakeni embalwa ezayo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukufakwa kwemodyuli kuzoletha ukulahleka kwamandla okuthile, ikakhulukazi kufaka ukulahleka kokukhanya nokulahleka kukagesi. Okwedlule kubangelwa ukudluliselwa kanye nokungaziphathi kahle kwezinto zokufaka ezifana ne-photovoltaic glass kanye ne-EVA, kanye nokugcina kubhekiswa ekusetshenzisweni kwamangqamuzana elanga. Ukulahleka kwesekethe okubangelwa ukumelana kwe-welding ribbon kanye nebha yebhasi uqobo, futhi ukulahleka kwamanje kwe-mismatch okubangelwa ukuxhumana okuhambisanayo kwamangqamuzana, ukulahleka kwamandla okuphelele kwama-akhawunti amabili acishe abe ngu-8%.
1.5. Amandla we-Photovoltaic afakiwe: Izinqubomgomo zamazwe ahlukahlukene ziqhutshwa, futhi kunesikhala esikhulu samandla amasha afakiwe ngokuzayo
Umhlaba ufinyelele ngokuyisisekelo okuvumelaniswa kokukhishwa kwe-net zero ngaphansi kwenhloso yokuvikelwa kwemvelo, futhi ezomnotho zamaphrojekthi we-photovoltaic ahleliwe avele kancane kancane. Amazwe ahlola ngenkuthalo ukuthuthukiswa kwamandla avuselelekayo amandla okuzukulwane. Eminyakeni yamuva, amazwe emhlabeni wonke azenze izibopho zokunciphisa ukuphuma kwekhabhoni. Iningi labakhiqizi begesi abayi-Greenhouse Greenhouse bakhiphe imigomo yamandla evuselelekayo evuselelekayo, futhi umthamo ofakiwe wamandla avuselelekayo mkhulu. Kususelwa kuthagethi yokulawula yokushisa engu-1.5 ℃, i-Irena ibikezela ukuthi umthamo wamandla we-Global evuselelekayo uzofinyelela ku-208TW ngo-2030. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngokwezindleko ze-WoodMac (I-India, i-United States ivele iphansi kunesikhathi esibi kakhulu. Ukukhuthaza izinqubomgomo ezisebenzayo emazweni ahlukahlukene kanye nomnotho wesizukulwane samandla we-Photovoltaic kuholele ekukhuphukeni okuqhubekayo kwamandla afakiwe ahlanganisiwe we-Photovoltaics emhlabeni naseChina eminyakeni yamuva. Kusuka ku-2012 kuye ku-2021, umthamo ohlanganisiwe we-Photovoltaics emhlabeni uzokwanda kusuka ku-104.3gw kuya ku-849.5gw, kanye namandla afakiwe ahlanganisiwe asuka ku-6.7gw aze afike kuma-307gW. Ngaphezu kwalokho, amakhono asanda kufakwa ama-Photovoltaic ama-Photovoltaic ama-Akhawunti angaphezu kwama-20% omhlaba wonke wezwe. Ngo-2021, i-PhotoVoltaic eneminyaka yobudala yaseChina ingu-53gw, i-accounting cishe ama-40% omhlaba omusha wezwe. Lokhu kungenxa yokusatshalaliswa okugcwele futhi okufanayo kwezinsizakusebenza zamandla ezikhanyayo eChina, i-Upstream eyakhiwe kahle futhi yaphansi, kanye nokusekelwa okuqinile kwezinqubomgomo zezwe. Ngalesi sikhathi, iChina idlale indima enkulu esizukulwaneni samandla e-Photovoltaic, futhi umthamo ohlanganisiwe ubalwa ngaphansi kuka-6.5% ongaphansi kuka-6.5%. wagxumela ku-36.14%.
Ngokusekelwe ekuhlaziyweni okungenhla, i-CPIA inikeze isibikezelo sokufakwa kwe-PhotoVoltaic okusha okusanda kukhuphuka kusuka ngo-2022 kuya ku-2030 emhlabeni wonke. Kulinganiselwa ukuthi ngaphansi kwezimo ezinethembayo nezokulondolozwa, umthamo osanda kutholwa ngo-2030 uzoba ngu-366 kanye nama-315gw ngokulandelana, futhi amakhono asanda kufakwa eChina azoba ngu-128., 105gw. Ngezansi sizokubikezela isidingo sePolysilicon ngokuya ngesilinganiso samandla asanda kufakwa unyaka ngamunye.
1.6. Funa isibikezelo se-polysilicon ngezinhlelo zokusebenza ze-photovoltaic
Kusuka ku-2022 kuya ku-2030, kususelwa ekubikezelweni kwe-CPIA kokufakwa kwe-PV okusanda kukhuphuka kwe-PV ngaphansi kwazo zombili izimo ezinethembayo nezilondoloziwe, isidingo sePolysilicon sezicelo ze-PV zingabikezelwa. Amaseli ayisinyathelo esiyisihluthulelo sokuqaphela ukuguqulwa kwe-PhotoElectric, kanye ne-Silicon Wafers yizinto ezisisekelo ezingavuthiwe zamaseli nama-polysilicon, ngakho-ke kuyingxenye ebalulekile yePolysilicon ifuna ukubikezela. Inani elinesisindo lezicucu ngekhilogremu ngayinye yezinduku ze-silicon kanye nama-ingots angabalwa kusuka kunombolo yezingcezu ngekhilogremu ngayinye kanye nesabelo semakethe se-silicon izinduku nama-ingots. Ngemuva kwalokho, ngokomandla kanye nesabelo sezimakethe se-Silicon Wafers amasayizi ahlukene, amandla anesisindo e-Silicon Wafers angatholakala, bese kuba nenombolo edingekayo ye-Silicon Wafers ingalinganiswa ngokuya nge-Photovoltaic umthamo osanda kufakwa. Okulandelayo, isisindo sezinduku ze-silicon ezidingekayo kanye nama-ingots zingatholakala ngokuya ngobudlelwano obuningi phakathi kwenombolo yama-silicon ama-wafers kanye nenombolo yesisindo ye-silicon izinduku kanye ne-silicon ingots ngekhilogremu. Kuhlanganiswe futhi nokusetshenziswa kwesilonda okunesisindo kwama-silicon izinduku / ama-silicon ingots, isidingo sePolysilicon sokuthola umthamo osanda kufakwa i-Photovoltaic kungagcinelwa ekugcineni. Ngokwemiphumela yesimo sezulu, isidingo somhlaba wonke sePolysilicon sokufakwa okusha kwe-Photovoltaic eminyakeni emihlanu edlule sizoqhubeka nokukhuphuka, sibhekane no-2027, bese sincipha kancane eminyakeni emithathu ezayo. Kulinganiselwa ukuthi ngaphansi kwezimo ezinethembayo nezilondoloziwe ngo-2025, isidingo seminyaka yonke sePolysilicon sokufakwa kwe-Photovoltaic kuzoba ngamathani we-Photovoltaic ngo-2030 kuzoba ngamathani ayi-1,042,100 ngaphansi kwezimo ezinethembayo nezilondoloziwe. , Amathani angama-896,900. Ngokusho kweChinaisilinganiso samandla we-global photovoltaic afakiwe,Isidingo saseChina sePolysilicon sokusetshenziswa kwe-Photovoltaic ngo-2025Kulindeleke ukuthi kube ngamathani angama-369,600 namathani angama-302,600 ngokulandelana ngaphansi kwezimo ezinethembayo nezilondolozayo, kanye namathani angama-739,200 namathani angama-605,200 phesheya ngokulandelana.
2, Isidingo sokuphela kwe-semiconductor: Isikali sincane kakhulu kunokufunwa kwe-Photovoltaic field, futhi ukukhula okuzayo kungalindelekile
Ngaphezu kokwenza amaseli we-Photovoltaic, i-polysilicon nayo ingahle isetshenziswe njengento eluhlaza yokwenza ama-chip futhi isetshenziswa ensimini ye-semiconductor, engahlukaniswa ngokukhiqiza izimoto, ama-elekthronikhi zezimboni, ukuxhumana kwasekhaya kanye nezinye izinkambu. Inqubo kusuka ku-polysilicon kuya ku-chip ihlukaniswe izinyathelo ezintathu. Okokuqala, i-polysilicon idonswa ku-monocrystalline filicon ingots, bese uthathe izintambo ze-silicon ezincanyana. I-Silicon Wafers ikhiqizwa ngochungechunge lokugaya, ukujaha kanye nokuphangwa kwemisebenzi. , okungukuqukethwe okuyisisekelo okuluhlaza kwefektri ye-semiconductor. Ekugcineni, i-silicon wafer isikwa futhi i-laser yaqoshwa izakhiwo zesifunda ezahlukahlukene ukwenza imikhiqizo ye-chip ngezimpawu ezithile. Ama-wafers ajwayelekile we-silicon ikakhulukazi afaka ama-wafers acwengekileyo, ama-epitaxial wafers nama-soi weafers. I-wafer eboshwe yi-chip yokukhiqiza ngeflathi ephakeme etholwe ngokupholisa i-silicon wafer ukususa i-chip elonakalisiwe ebusweni, okungasetshenziswa ngokuqondile ukwenza ama-chip, ama-epitaxial wafers kanye nama-soi silicon we-wafers. Ama-Epitaxial Wafers atholakala ngokukhula kwe-epitaxial kwama-wafers acwengekileyo, ngenkathi ama-soi silicon ama-wafers enziwe ngamabili ngokubopha izibopho noma i-ion ukufakwa ezindaweni ezibunjiwe ze-wafer ezibunjiwe, futhi inqubo yokulungiselela inzima.
Ngokufunwa kwe-polysilicon ohlangothini lwe-semiconductor ngo-2021, kuhlangene nesimo sezulu se-ejensi embonini ye-semiconductor eminyakeni embalwa ezayo, isidingo se-polysilicon ensimini yemithi engu-202 kuya ku-2025 singalinganiselwa ku-2025. Ngo-2021, ukukhiqizwa kwePolysic-grade ye-Global Electronic-grament kuzokulandisa cishe nge-6% yokukhiqizwa kwe-polysilicon okuphelele, kanye ne-polysilicon ebangeni le-polysilicon kanye ne-granurar silicon kuzolandisa cishe ama-94%. Iningi le-polysilicon le-elekthronikhi lisetshenziswa ensimini ye-semiconductor, kanti enye i-polysilicon isetshenziswa embonini ye-Photovoltaic. . Ngakho-ke, kungacatshangwa ukuthi inani lePolysilicon elisetshenziswa embonini ye-semiconductor ngo-2021 lingamathani angama-37,000. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngokuya ngesilinganiso sokukhula esizayo semboni ye-semiconductor ebikezelwe yi-Fornebusiness Insights, isidingo sePolysilicon sokusetshenziswa kweminyaka engu-822 sisuka ku-2025. Kulinganiselwa ukuthi ngo-2025. (Umthombo wokubika: tank yesikhathi esizayo)
3, Ukungenisa kanye nokungenisa okuthekelisa ngePolysilicon: Ukungenisa ezweni: Ukungeniswa okukude kakhulu okuthengiswayo, ngeGermany naseMalaysia ukubalwa nge-accounting ephezulu
Ngo-2021, cishe ama-18.63% we-polysilicon afunwayo azoqhamuka ekungeniseni, futhi isilinganiselo sokungenisa ngaphakathi sidlula isilinganiso sokuthumela ngaphandle. Kusukela ngo-2017 kuya ku-2021, iphethini ye-polysilicon yokungenisa nokuthumela kwamanye amazwe ilawulwa ukungeniswa okukhona, okungabangelwa yisidingo esisezingeni eliphansi semboni ye-Photovoltaic esekhule ngokushesha eminyakeni engaphezu kuka-94% yesidingo esiphelele; Ngaphezu kwalokho, inkampani ayikakabi kahle ubuchwepheshe bokukhiqiza bePolysilicon ebangeni eliphakeme, ngakho-ke enye i-polysilicon edingwa ngumkhakha wesifunda ohlanganisiwe isadinga ukuncika ekungeniseni. Ngokwemininingwane yegatsha le-Silicon Imboni, ivolumu yokungenisa yaqhubeka yehla ngo-2019 no-2020. Isizathu esiyisisekelo sokuwohloka kwamathani wePorysilicon ngonyaka we-2018 kwaba yizinkampani eziphezulu ngo-2018. Ngenxa yokulahleka, ngakho-ke ukuthembela okungenisa i-polysilicon kuphansi kakhulu; Yize umthamo wokukhiqizwa ungakhuphuki ngo-2020, umthelela walolu bhubhane uholele ekubambezelweni ekwakhiweni kwamaphrojekthi we-Photovoltaic, futhi inani lama-polysilicon ama-oda anciphile ngesikhathi esifanayo. Ngo-2021, imakethe ye-Photovoltaic yaseChina izokhula ngokushesha, futhi ukusetshenziswa kwePorysilicon kuzofinyelela amathani angama-613,000, kushayela ivolumu yokungenisa ukuze liphinde liphume. Eminyakeni emihlanu edlule, ivolumu yokungenisa e-Polysilicon yaseChina iphakathi kuka-90,000 no-140,000, lapho cishe amathani angama-103,800 ngonyaka ka-2021. Kulindeleke ukuthi ivolumu yokungenisa e-polysilicon yaseChina lizohlala lizungeze amathani angama-100,000 ngonyaka ukusuka ngo-2022 kuya ku-2025.
Ukungeniswa kwamaPhostilicon kwe-Polyysilicon ikakhulukazi kuvela eJalimane, eMalaysia, eJapan naseTaiwan, eChina, kanye nenani eliphelele lamazwe ama-polysilicon lizolandisa ngo-2021%. IGermany ingumnikazi we-polysilicon giant we-polysilicon giant, okuwumthombo omkhulu kakhulu we-polysilicon yaphesheya kwezilwandle, accounting for 12.7% wenani eliphelele lokukhiqiza lomhlaba wonke ngo-2021; IMalaysia inenombolo enkulu yemigqa yokukhiqiza ama-polysilicon evela enkampanini ye-OCI yaseNingizimu Korea yaseNingizimu Korea, esuka kulayini woqobo wokukhiqiza eMalaysia eTokuyama, inkampani yaseJapan etholwe yi-OCI. Kunamafektri kanye namafektri athile o-OCi athuthela eSouth Korea ayisa eMalaysia. Isizathu sokufuduka ukuthi iMalaysia ihlinzeka ngesikhafu saseFree Factory kanye nezindleko zikagesi zingelinye nengxenye yesithathu ngaphansi kweNingizimu Korea; IJapan neTaiwan, iChina bane-tokuyama, bathole nezinye izinkampani, ezihlala ingxenye enkulu yokukhiqizwa kwePolysilicon. indawo. Ngo-2021, umphumela we-polysilicon uzoba amathani angama-492,000, lapho isidingo esisanda kufakwa i-PhotoVoltaic kanye nesidingo sokukhiqiza i-chip sizoba ngamathani angama-20,400 kanye namathani angama-284,100 ngokulandelana, futhi amathani asele angama-284,100 azosetshenziselwa ukucubungula okuphansi futhi athunyelwa phesheya kwezilwandle. Ezixhumeni ezansi komfula wePolysilicon, ama-Silicon Wafers, amaseli kanye namamojula athunyelwa ngokuyinhloko, phakathi kokuthengiswa kwamanye amazwe amamojula avelele ikakhulukazi. Ngo-2021, izigidigidi ezingama-464 billion silicon namaseli e-photovoltaic abekhonakuthunyelweUkusuka eChina, okuthengiswayo okuphelele kwe-22.6gW kanye ne-10.3gW ngokulandelana, kanye nokuthekelisa kwamamojula we-Photovoltaic kungu-98.5gw, ngokungeniswa okumbalwa kakhulu. Ngokuya ngenani levelu yenani lokuthumela, ukuthunyelwa kwemodyuli ngo-2021 kuzofinyelela ku-US $ 24.61 billion, accounting for 86%, kulandelwe ama-Silicon Wafers namabhethri. Ngo-2021, okuphumayo komhlaba we-Silicon Wafers, amaseli we-Photovoltaic, kanye namamojula we-Photovoltaic azofinyelela ku-97.3%, 85.1%, kanye nama-82.3%, ngokulandelana. Kulindeleke ukuthi imboni ye-Global Photovoltaic izoqhubeka nokugxila eChina eminyakeni emithathu ezayo, futhi umphumela kanye nevolumu yokuthumela isixhumanisi ngasinye kuzokwenzeka. Ngakho-ke, kulinganiselwa ukuthi kusukela ngo-2022 kuya ku-2025, inani lePolysilicon elisetshenziselwe ukucubungula kanye nokukhiqiza imikhiqizo ephansi futhi kwathunyelwa phesheya kwezilwandle kuzokhula kancane kancane. Kulinganiselwa ngokususa ukukhiqizwa kwaphesheya kwezilwandle kusuka phesheya kwezilwandle funa. Ngo-2025, ama-polysilicon akhiqizwa ngokusebenza emikhiqizweni ephansi azofakwa athumele amathani angama-583,000 emazweni aphesheya aqhamuka eChina
4, Ukufingqa nombono
Isidingo se-Global Polysilicon sigxile kakhulu enkambu ye-Photovoltaic, futhi isidingo sensimu ye-semiconductor akuyona i-oda lobukhulu. Isidingo sePolysilicon siqhutshwa ukufakwa kwe-Photovoltaic, futhi kancane kancane sidluliselwa ePolysilicon ngokuxhumeka kwamamojula we-Photovoltaic-Cell-Wafer, ukudala ukufunwa kwalo. Ngokuzayo, nokwanda kwe-Global Photovoltaic efakiwe umthamo, isidingo sePolysilicon ngokuvamile sinethemba. Ngokuzenzakalelayo, iChina no phesheya kwezilwandle ezisanda kukhuphuka okubangela ukufunwa kwePV ngo-2025 kuzoba ngama-36.96gw kanye ne-73.93gw ngokulandelana nangomkhuhlane kuzofinyelela ngokulandelana kwangama-30.49gw ngokulandelana. Ngo-2021, ukulethwa kwe-polysilicon emhlabeni jikelele kuzobe kuqinile, kuholele ekutheni amanani entengo aphezulu ePolysilicon. Lesi simo singase siqhubeke kuze kube ngu-2022, futhi kancane kancane siphendukele esigabeni sokuhlinzekwa okuxekethile ngemuva kwe-2023. Engxenyeni yesibili ka-2020, umthelela wokukhiqizwa ongezansi waqala ukwenza buthaka, futhi umthelela wokukhiqizwa okwenzeka phansi waxosha isidingo sePolysilicon, kanti umthelela wokulungiswa kobhubhane waqhubekela phambili isidingo sePolysilicon, kanti nezinkampani ezithile eziholayo zihlelele ukwandisa ukukhiqizwa. Kodwa-ke, umjikelezo wokunwebeka weminyaka engaphezu kwengxenye eyodwa kwaholela ekukhululweni kwamandla okukhiqiza ngasekupheleni kuka-2021 no-2022, okuholela ekukhuphukeni okungu-4,24 amathani. Kubikezelwa ukuthi ngo-2022, ngaphansi kwezimo ezinethembayo nezilondoloziwe zamandla we-photovoltaic afakiwe, ukuhlinzekwa kanye negebe lokufundela kuzoba ngu-8,56,500 amathani namathani aphelele ngokulandelana. Ngo-2023 nangale kwalokho, amaphrojekthi amasha aqala ukwakhiwa ekugcineni kuka-2021 futhi ekuqaleni kuka-2022 azoqala ukukhiqizwa futhi afinyelele umsele wokukhiqiza. Ukuhlinzekwa kanye nokufunwa kuzothukulula kancane kancane, futhi amanani angaba ngaphansi kwengcindezi engenhla. Ekulandeleni, ukunakwa kufanele kukhokhwe umthelela wempi yaseRussia - yase-Ukraine ephethini lamandla omhlaba, elingashintsha uhlelo lomhlaba wonke olusanda kufakwa, oluzothinta isidingo sePhotovoltaic.
(Le ndatshana ingezethenjwa kuphela amakhasimende ase-Urbanmines futhi ayimeleli izeluleko zokutshala imali)