Umthombo: IGosa leNdaba laseWall Street
Ixabiso leI-Aluminiyamu (iAluminiyam oksidi)ifikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu kule minyaka mibini, ekhokelela ekwandeni kwemveliso yimveliso ye-alumina yaseTshayina. Oku kunyuka kwamaxabiso e-alumina yehlabathi kubangele abavelisi baseTshayina bandise amandla abo emveliso kwaye babambe ithuba lemarike.
Ngokwedatha yamva nje evela kwiSMM International, ngoJuni 13thI-2024, amaxabiso e-alumina e-Western Australia anyuke ukuya kwi-$ 510 ngetoni nganye, ephawula ukuphakama okutsha ukususela ngo-Matshi 2022. Ukunyuka konyaka kudlule i-40% ngenxa yokuphazamiseka kokubonelela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka.
Oku kunyuswa kwexabiso kubaluleke kakhulu kuvuselele umdla kwimveliso ngaphakathi kwishishini lase China ialumina(Al2O3). U-Monte Zhang, umlawuli olawulayo we-AZ Global Consulting, ubonise ukuba iiprojekthi ezintsha zicwangciselwe ukuveliswa eShandong, eChongqing, e-Inner Mongolia naseGuangxi kwisiqingatha sesibini salo nyaka. Ukongeza, i-Indonesia ne-Indiya zikwanyusa ngamandla amandla azo emveliso kwaye zinokujongana nemiceli mngeni yonikezelo olugqithisileyo kwiinyanga ezili-18 ezizayo.
Kulo nyaka uphelileyo, ukuphazamiseka konikezelo kuzo zombini i-China ne-Australia kunyuse kakhulu amaxabiso emarike. Umzekelo, i-Alcoa Corp ibhengeze ukuvalwa kwendawo yokucoca i-alumina yeKwinana enomthamo wonyaka weetoni ezizigidi ezi-2.2 ngoJanyuwari. NgoMeyi, i-Rio Tinto ibhengeze i-force majeure kwimithwalo esuka kumzi-mveliso we-alumina ose-Queensland ngenxa yokunqongophala kwerhasi yendalo. Esi sibhengezo sisemthethweni sibonisa ukuba izibophelelo zekhontrakthi azinakufezekiswa ngenxa yeemeko ezingalawulekiyo.
Ezi ziganeko azibanganga nje kuphela amaxabiso e-alumina(i-aluminiyam) kwiLondon Metal Exchange (LME) ukuba afikelele kwisithuba seenyanga ezingama-23 phezulu kodwa anyuse neendleko zokwenziwa kwealuminiyam ngaphakathi eTshayina.
Nangona kunjalo, njengoko unikezelo lubuyela ngokuthe ngcembe, imeko yobonelelo oluqinileyo kwimarike kulindeleke ukuba ibe lula. U-Colin Hamilton, umlawuli wophando lweemveliso kwi-BMO Capital Markets, ulindele ukuba amaxabiso e-alumina aya kuncipha kwaye asondele kwiindleko zemveliso, ewela phakathi koluhlu olungaphezulu kwe-300 yeetoni. U-Ross Strachan, umhlalutyi we-CRU Group, uvumelana nalo mbono kwaye ukhankanya kwi-imeyile ukuba ngaphandle kokuba kukho ukuphazamiseka okungakumbi ekunikezeni, ukunyuka kwexabiso elibukhali kwangaphambili kufuneka kuphele. Ulindele ukuba amaxabiso ehle kakhulu kamva kulo nyaka xa imveliso ye-alumina iqala kwakhona.
Nangona kunjalo, umhlalutyi uMorgan Stanley u-Amy Gower unikezela ngembono elumkileyo ngokubonisa ukuba i-China ivakalise injongo yayo yokulawula ngokungqongqo umthamo omtsha wokucokisa i-alumina enokuthi ibe nefuthe kwibhalansi yobonelelo lwemarike kunye nemfuno. Kwingxelo yakhe, uGower ugxininisa esithi: “Ekuhambeni kwexesha, ukukhula kwemveliso yealumina kusenokulinganiselwa. Ukuba i-China iyayeka ukunyusa umthamo wemveliso, kunokubakho ukunqongophala ixesha elide kwimakethi ye-alumina. "