1, Photovoltaic kupera kudiwa: Kudiwa kwe photovoltaic kuiswa simba kwakasimba, uye kudiwa kwepolysilicon kunodzoserwa zvichienderana neyakaiswa fungidziro yesimba.
1.1. Polysilicon kushandiswa: Iyo yepasiresekushandiswa kwehuwandu huri kuwedzera zvishoma nezvishoma, kunyanya kune photovoltaic simba rekugadzira
Makore gumi apfuura, pasi rosepolysiliconkushandiswa kwakaramba kuchikwira, uye chikamu cheChina chakaramba chichiwedzera, chichitungamirirwa nekambani ye photovoltaic. Kubva 2012 kusvika 2021, iyo yepasi rose polysilicon kushandiswa kwaiwanzo ratidza kukwira kumusoro, kusimuka kubva pa237,000 matani kusvika pa653,000 matani. Muna 2018, China's 531 photovoltaic itsva policy yakaunzwa, iyo yakanyatso dzikisa chiyero cherubatsiro chekugadzirwa kwemagetsi ephotovoltaic. Iyo ichangobva kuiswa photovoltaic simba yakadonha ne18% gore-pa-gore, uye kudiwa kwepolysilicon kwakakanganiswa. Kubva 2019, nyika yakaunza akati wandei marongero ekusimudzira iyo grid parity ye photovoltaics. Nekukurumidza kukura kweiyo photovoltaic indasitiri, kudiwa kwepolysilicon kwakapindawo munguva yekukura nekukurumidza. Munguva iyi, chikamu cheChina chekushandiswa kwepolysilicon mukushandiswa kwepasi rose kwakaramba kuchikwira, kubva pa61.5% muna 2012 kusvika 93.9% muna 2021, kunyanya nekuda kweChina kukurumidza kusimudzira photovoltaic industry. Kubva pakuona kwemaitiro epasi rose ekushandiswa kwemhando dzakasiyana dzepolysilicon muna 2021, zvinhu zvesilicon zvakashandiswa masero ephotovoltaic zvichaverengera inosvika makumi mapfumbamwe nemana muzana, iyo solar-giredhi polysilicon uye granular silicon account ye91% uye 3% zvichiteerana, ukuwo. zvemagetsi-giredhi polysilicon inogona kushandiswa machipisi maakaundi e94%. Chiyero chacho 6%, iyo inoratidza kuti ikozvino kudiwa kwe polysilicon inotungamirirwa ne photovoltaics. Zvinotarisirwa kuti nekudziya kweiyo dual-carbon policy, kudiwa kwe photovoltaic kuiswa simba kuchawedzera kusimba, uye kushandiswa uye chikamu che solar-grade polysilicon chicharamba chichiwedzera.
1.2. Silicon wafer: monocrystalline silicon wafer inogara iyo huru, uye inoenderera Czochralski tekinoroji inokura nekukurumidza.
Iyo yakananga yakadzika pasi link yepolysilicon isilicon wafers, uye China parizvino inotonga pasi rose silicon wafer musika. Kubva 2012 kusvika 2021, iyo yepasirese neChinese silicon wafer yekugadzira kugona uye kubuda kwakaramba kuchiwedzera, uye iyo photovoltaic indasitiri yakaramba ichikura. Silicon wafers anoshanda sebhiriji rinobatanidza silicon zvinhu nemabhatiri, uye hapana mutoro pahuwandu hwekugadzira, saka inoramba ichikwezva nhamba huru yemakambani kupinda muindasitiri. Muna 2021, vagadziri veChinese silicon wafer vakawedzera zvakanyanyaproductionkugona kusvika 213.5GW kubuda, iyo yakafambisa kugadzirwa kwesilicon wafer yepasi rose kuwedzera kusvika 215.4GW. Zvinoenderana neuripo uye huchangobva kuwedzera huwandu hwekugadzira muChina, zvinotarisirwa kuti huwandu hwekukura kwepagore huchachengetedza 15-25% mumakore mashoma anotevera, uye kugadzirwa kwewaferi kweChina kucharamba kuchiine chinzvimbo chakazara munyika.
Polycrystalline silicon inogona kugadzirwa kuita polycrystalline silicon ingots kana monocrystalline silicon tsvimbo. Iyo nzira yekugadzira yepolycrystalline silicon ingots inonyanya kusanganisira nzira yekukanda uye nzira yekunyungudika yakananga. Parizvino, rudzi rwechipiri ndiyo nzira huru, uye chiyero chekurasikirwa chinonyanya kuchengetedzwa pane inenge 5%. Iyo nzira yekukanda inonyanya kunyungudutsa iyo silicon zvinhu mucrucible kutanga, wozoikanda mune imwe preheated crucible yekutonhodza. Nekudzora mwero wekutonhora, iyo polycrystalline silicon ingot inokandwa neinotungamira solidification tekinoroji. Kupisa-kunyunguduka kwemaitiro akananga-kunyunguduka kwakafanana neyoyo nzira yekukanda, iyo iyo polysilicon inonyungudutswa zvakananga mu crucible kutanga, asi danho rekutonhora rakasiyana nenzira yekukanda. Kunyange zvazvo nzira mbiri idzi dzakafanana mumasikirwo, nzira yekunyunguduka yakananga inongoda imwe crucible, uye chigadzirwa chepolysilicon chinogadzirwa chemhando yakanaka, iyo inobatsira pakukura kwepolycrystalline silicon ingots ine maitiro ari nani, uye nzira yekukura iri nyore otomatiki, iyo inogona kuita iyo yemukati chinzvimbo chekristaro Kanganiso kudzikisira. Parizvino, mabhizinesi anotungamira muindasitiri yemagetsi ezuva anowanzo kushandisa nzira yekunyungudika yakananga kugadzira polycrystalline silicon ingots, uye zviri mukati kabhoni neokisijeni zvakaderera, izvo zvinodzorwa pazasi 10ppma uye 16ppma. Mune ramangwana, kugadzirwa kwepolycrystalline silicon ingots kucharamba kuchidzorwa nenzira yakananga yekunyunguduka, uye chiyero chekurasikirwa chicharamba chakapoteredza 5% mukati memakore mashanu.
Kugadzirwa kwemonocrystalline silicon tsvimbo kunonyanya kuenderana neiyo Czochralski nzira, inowedzerwa neyakamira yakamira nzvimbo yekunyungudutsa nzira, uye zvigadzirwa zvinogadzirwa nevaviri zvine mashandisiro akasiyana. Iyo nzira yeCzochralski inoshandisa graphite kuramba kupisa polycrystalline silicon mune yakakwirira-kuchena quartz crucible mune yakatwasuka-tube thermal system kuinyungudutsa, wobva waisa mhodzi yekristaro mukati mekunyunguduka kwekusanganiswa, uye tenderedza mhodzi yekristaro uchitenderedza iyo. crucible. , kristaro yembeu inosimudzwa zvishoma nezvishoma kumusoro, uye monocrystalline silicon inowanikwa kuburikidza nemaitiro ekudyara, kukwidziridzwa, kutendeuka kwepfudzi, kukura kwedhayamita yakaenzana, uye kupedzisa. Iyo yakatwasuka inoyangarara nzvimbo yekunyungudutsa nzira inoreva kugadzirisa iyo columnar yakakwira-kuchena polycrystalline zvinhu mukamuri rechoto, kufambisa simbi coil zvishoma nezvishoma parutivi rwepolycrystalline kureba kwegwara uye kupfuura nepakati pepolycrystalline, uye kupfuudza yakakwirira-simba redhiyo frequency ikozvino musimbi. coil kugadzira Chikamu chemukati chepolycrystalline mbiru coil inonyungudika, uye mushure mekunge coil yafambiswa, iyo inonyunguduka inonyungudika kuita kristaro imwechete. Nekuda kwemaitiro akasiyana ekugadzira, kune misiyano mumidziyo yekugadzira, mutengo wekugadzira uye mhando yechigadzirwa. Parizvino, zvigadzirwa zvakawanikwa nenzira yekunyungudutsa nzvimbo zvine kuchena kwakanyanya uye zvinogona kushandiswa kugadzira semiconductor zvishandiso, nepo nzira yeCzochralski inogona kusangana nemamiriro ekugadzira imwechete crystal silicon ye photovoltaic masero uye ine mutengo wakaderera, saka zviri nzira huru. Muna 2021, chikamu chemusika cheiyo yakatwasuka nzira yekudhonza ingangoita 85%, uye inotarisirwa kuwedzera zvishoma mumakore mashoma anotevera. Migove yemusika muna 2025 na2030 inofungidzirwa kuve 87% uye 90% zvichiteerana. Panyaya yedunhu kunyunguduka imwe crystal silicon, iyo indasitiri yedunhu inonyungudutsa imwe crystal silicon yakakwira pasirese. kutora), TOPSIL (Denmark) . Mune ramangwana, chiyero chinobuda cheyakanyungudutswa imwe crystal silicon haizowedzere zvakanyanya. Chikonzero ndechekuti matekinoroji ane hukama neChina ari kumashure zvishoma kana achienzaniswa neJapan neGermany, kunyanya kugona kwemidziyo yekudziya yakakwira-frequency uye crystallization process mamiriro. Iyo tekinoroji yeyakasanganiswa silicon imwe kristaro munzvimbo yakakura yedhayamita inoda kuti mabhizinesi eChinese arambe achiongorora ega.
Nzira yeCzochralski inogona kukamurwa kuita tekinoroji inoenderera mberi yekudhonza tekinoroji (CCZ) uye inodzokororwa tekinoroji yekudhonza tekinoroji (RCZ). Parizvino, nzira huru muindasitiri iyi iRCZ, iyo iri padanho rekuchinja kubva kuRCZ kuenda kuCCZ. Iyo imwechete kristaro yekudhonza uye yekudyisa matanho eRZC akazvimirira kubva kune mumwe nemumwe. Pamberi pekudhonza kwega kwega, ingot imwechete yekristaro inofanirwa kutonhodzwa uye kubviswa mukamuri regedhi, nepo CCZ ichigona kuona kudyisa nekunyungudika ichidhonza. RCZ yakura, uye hapana mukana wekuvandudza tekinoroji mune ramangwana; nepo CCZ iine zvakanakira kudzikisa mutengo nekuvandudzwa kwehunyanzvi, uye iri padanho rekukura nekukurumidza. Panyaya yemutengo, kana ichienzaniswa neRCZ, iyo inotora maawa angangoita 8 tsvimbo imwe chete isati yadhonzwa, CCZ inogona kuvandudza zvakanyanya kushanda zvakanaka kwekugadzira, kuderedza mutengo wakakura uye kushandiswa kwesimba nekubvisa danho iri. Kubuda kwechoto chimwe chete kunodarika 20% kupfuura yeRCZ. Mutengo wekugadzira unodarika gumi kubva muzana pane RCZ. Panyaya yekushanda, CCZ inogona kupedzisa kudhirowa kwe8-10 single crystal silicon tsvimbo mukati mehupenyu hweiyo crucible (250 maawa), nepo RCZ inogona kupedzisa nezve 4, uye kugona kwekugadzira kunogona kuwedzerwa ne100-150% . Panyaya yehutano, CCZ ine yunifomu resistivity, yakaderera okisijeni yemukati, uye kunonoka kuunganidzwa kwesimbi tsvina, saka inonyanya kukodzera kugadzirwa kwen-mhando imwe crystal silicon wafers, iyo iri zvakare munguva yekukurumidza kukura. Parizvino, mamwe makambani ekuChina akazivisa kuti ane CCZ tekinoroji, uye nzira yegranular silicon-CCZ-n-mhando monocrystalline silicon wafers yakanyatsojeka, uye yakatotanga kushandisa 100% granular silicon zvinhu. . Mune ramangwana, CCZ ichatsiva RCZ, asi zvinotora imwe nzira.
Maitiro ekugadzira emonocrystalline silicon wafers akakamurwa kuita matanho mana: kudhonza, kucheka, kucheka, kuchenesa uye kuronga. Kubuda kwediamond wire slicing nzira kwadzikisira zvakanyanya kuwanda kwekurasikirwa. Iyo crystal yekudhonza maitiro yakatsanangurwa pamusoro apa. Iyo slicing process inosanganisira truncation, squaring, uye chamfering mashandiro. Kucheka kushandisa muchina wekuchekesa kucheka iyo columnar silicon kuita silicon wafers. Kuchenesa uye kuronga ndiwo matanho ekupedzisira mukugadzirwa kwesilicon wafers. Iyo nzira yedhaimani waya yekucheka ine mabhenefiti ari pachena pamusoro pechinyakare dhaka waya slicing nzira, iyo inonyanya kuratidzwa munguva pfupi yekushandisa uye kurasikirwa kwakaderera. Sipidhi yewaya yedhaimondi yakapetwa kashanu kupfuura yekucheka kwechinyakare. Semuenzaniso, pakucheka-wafer imwe chete, kucheka kwewaya yechinyakare kunotora maawa gumi, uye kucheka waya yedhaimani kunongotora maawa maviri. Kurasikirwa kwedhaimondi wire yekucheka zvakare kudiki, uye iyo yekukuvadzwa yakakonzerwa nedhaimani waya yekucheka idiki pane iyo yedhaka waya yekucheka, iyo inobatsira kucheka matete akatetepa esilicon wafers. Mumakore achangopfuura, kuti vaderedze kurasikirwa kwekucheka uye mutengo wekugadzira, makambani akatendeukira kunzira dzedhaimani waya dzekucheka, uye dhayamondi redhaimani waya yemabhazi mabhawa iri kuramba ichidzikira. Muna 2021, iyo dhayamondi yewaya bhasibar ichave 43-56 μm, uye dhayamondi redhaimani waya bhasibha rinoshandiswa monocrystalline silicon wafers richadzikira zvakanyanya uye richiramba richidzikira. Zvinofungidzirwa kuti muna 2025 na2030, madhayamita emadhaimondi waya mabhazi akashandiswa kucheka monocrystalline silicon wafers achange ari 36 μm uye 33 μm, zvichiteerana, uye madhayamita emadhaimani waya mabhasi akashandiswa kucheka polycrystalline silicon wafers achange ari 51 μm. uye 51 μm, zvichiteerana. Izvi zvinodaro nekuti kune hurema hwakawanda uye kusvibiswa mune polycrystalline silicon wafers, uye waya dzakatetepa dzinowanzo putika. Naizvozvo, dhayamondi redhaimani waya bhasibha rinoshandiswa polycrystalline silicon wafer kucheka yakakura kupfuura iyo monocrystalline silicon wafers, uye sezvo chikamu chemusika chepolycrystalline silicon wafers chinodzikira zvishoma nezvishoma, chinoshandiswa ku polycrystalline silicon Kudzikira kwedhaimondi. mabhazi ewaya akachekwa nezvimedu adzikira.
Parizvino, zvimedu zvesilicon zvakakamurwa kuita marudzi maviri: polycrystalline silicon wafers uye monocrystalline silicon wafers. Monocrystalline silicon wafers ane zvakanakira hupenyu hurefu hwesevhisi uye yakakwirira photoelectric shanduko inoshanda. Polycrystalline silicon wafers anoumbwa nekristaro tsanga dzine akasiyana crystal plane orientation, nepo single crystal silicon wafers akagadzirwa nepolycrystalline silicon semidziyo yakabikwa uye ane yakafanana crystal plane yakatarisana. Muchitarisiko, polycrystalline silicon wafers uye imwechete crystal silicon wafers ndeyebhuruu-dema uye dema-brown. Sezvo iwo maviri akachekwa kubva ku polycrystalline silicon ingots uye monocrystalline silicon tsvimbo, zvichiteerana, maumbirwo acho ari square uye quasi-square. Hupenyu hwesevhisi hwepolycrystalline silicon wafers uye monocrystalline silicon wafers angangoita makore makumi maviri. Kana iyo yekurongedza nzira uye nharaunda yekushandisa yakakodzera, hupenyu hwesevhisi hunogona kusvika kupfuura makore makumi maviri nemashanu. Kazhinji kutaura, hupenyu hwemonocrystalline silicon wafers hurefu zvishoma pane iyo yepolycrystalline silicon wafers. Uye zvakare, monocrystalline silicon wafers zvakare iri nani zvishoma muphotoelectric shanduko inoshanda, uye dislocation density uye tsvina yesimbi idiki zvakanyanya pane iyo yepolycrystalline silicon wafers. Iko kusanganiswa kwezvinhu zvakasiyana-siyana kunoita kuti hupenyu hudiki hwemutakuri hwekristaro imwe chete hukwire kakawanda kupfuura iyo yepolycrystalline silicon wafers. Nekudaro kuratidza mukana wekushandura zvakanaka. Muna 2021, iyo yepamusoro-soro yekushandura inoshanda yepolycrystalline silicon wafers ichave yakatenderedza 21%, uye iyo yemonocrystalline silicon wafers ichasvika kusvika 24.2%.
Pamusoro pehupenyu hurefu uye yakanyanya kutendeuka kushanda zvakanaka, monocrystalline silicon wafers zvakare ine mukana wekutetepa, izvo zvinobatsira kudzikisa kushandiswa kwesilicon uye silicon wafer mutengo, asi teerera kune kuwedzera kwechikamu chekutsemuka. Kutetepa kwesilicon wafers kunobatsira kudzikisira mitengo yekugadzira, uye ikozvino slicing process inogona kuzadzisa zvizere zvinodiwa zvekutetepa, asi ukobvu hwesilicon wafers hunofanirawo kusangana nezvinodiwa zvezasi sero uye chikamu chekugadzira. Kazhinji, kukora kwesilicon wafers kwave kuderera mumakore achangopfuura, uye ukobvu hwepolycrystalline silicon wafers hwakakura zvakanyanya kupfuura hwemonocrystalline silicon wafers. Monocrystalline silicon wafers akakamurwazve kuita n-mhando silicon wafers uye p-mhando silicon wafers, nepo n-mhando silicon wafers anonyanya kusanganisira TOPCon Battery kushandiswa uye HJT kushandiswa kwebhatiri. Muna 2021, avhareji ukobvu hwepolycrystalline silicon wafers ndeye 178μm, uye kushomeka kwekuda mune ramangwana kuchavafambisa kuti varambe vachionda. Naizvozvo, zvinofanotaurwa kuti ukobvu huchaderera zvishoma kubva 2022 kusvika 2024, uye ukobvu hucharamba huri pa 170μm mushure me2025; avhareji ukobvu hwep-mhando monocrystalline silicon wafers inenge 170μm, uye inotarisirwa kudonha kusvika 155μm uye 140μm muna 2025 uye 2030. Pakati pen-type monocrystalline silicon wafers, ukobvu hwesilicon wafers anoshandiswa kuHJT masero anenge. 150μm, uye avhareji ukobvu hwen-mhando silicon wafers inoshandiswa TOPCon maseru i165μm. 135μm.
Pamusoro pezvo, kugadzirwa kwepolycrystalline silicon wafers kunoshandisa silicon yakawanda kupfuura monocrystalline silicon wafers, asi matanho ekugadzira ari nyore, izvo zvinounza mutengo wakanakira kune polycrystalline silicon wafers. Polycrystalline silicon, seyakajairwa mbishi zvinhu zvepolycrystalline silicon wafers uye monocrystalline silicon wafers, ine kushandiswa kwakasiyana mukugadzirwa kweaya maviri, ayo ari nekuda kwekusiyana kwekuchena uye kugadzirwa kwezviviri. Muna 2021, kushandiswa kwesilicon kwepolycrystalline ingot ndeye 1.10 kg/kg. Zvinotarisirwa kuti mari shoma mukutsvaga nekusimudzira inotungamira kune shanduko diki mune ramangwana. Iko kushandiswa kwesilicon kwetsvimbo yekudhonza ndeye 1.066 kg / kg, uye kune imwe nzvimbo yekugonesa. Inotarisirwa kuve 1.05 kg/kg uye 1.043 kg/kg muna 2025 uye 2030, zvichiteerana. Mune imwechete crystal kudhonza maitiro, kudzikiswa kwesilicon kushandiswa kwetsvimbo yekudhonza kunogona kuwanikwa nekudzikisa kurasikirwa kwekuchenesa nekupwanya, kunyatso kudzora nharaunda yekugadzira, kudzikisa chikamu cheprimers, kuvandudza kudzora kwakaringana, uye optimization yemhando. uye kugadzirisa tekinoroji yezvinhu zvakasvibiswa zvesilicon. Kunyange zvazvo kushandiswa kwesilicon kwepolycrystalline silicon wafers kwakakwirira, mutengo wekugadzirwa kwepolycrystalline silicon wafers wakakwira zvakanyanya nokuti polycrystalline silicon ingots inogadzirwa nehot-melting ingot casting, nepo monocrystalline silicon ingots inowanzobudiswa nekunonoka kukura muCzochralski single crystal furnaces. iyo inopedza simba rakati wandei. Low. Muna 2021, avhareji mutengo wekugadzira monocrystalline silicon wafers uchave unosvika 0.673 yuan/W, uye iyo yepolycrystalline silicon wafers ichave 0.66 yuan/W.
Sezvo ukobvu hwesilicon wafer huchidzikira uye dhayamondi redhaimani waya bhasiri richiderera, kubuda kwesilicon tsvimbo/ingots yedhayamita yakaenzana pakirogiramu kuchawedzera, uye huwandu hweimwe crystal silicon tsvimbo dzehuremu hwakafanana huchakwira kupfuura izvozvo. ye polycrystalline silicon ingots. Panyaya yesimba, simba rinoshandiswa nesilicon wafer yega yega rinosiyana zvichienderana nerudzi uye saizi. Muna 2021, kubuda kwep-mhando 166mm saizi monocrystalline square bars ingangoita 64 zvidimbu pakirogiramu, uye kubuda kwepolycrystalline square ingots kunosvika makumi mashanu nepfumbamwe. Pakati pe-p-type single crystal silicon wafers, kubuda kwe158.75mm size monocrystalline square rods inenge zvidimbu makumi manomwe pakirogiramu, kubuda kwep-mhando 182mm saizi imwe crystal square rods ingangoita 53 zvidimbu pakirogiramu, uye kubuda kwep. -mhando 210mm saizi imwe chete kristaro tsvimbo pakirogiramu inenge 53 zvidimbu. Kubuda kwesquare bar kunosvika makumi mana. Kubva 2022 kusvika 2030, kuenderera kutetepa kwesilicon wafers pasina mubvunzo kunotungamira mukuwedzera kwehuwandu hwesilicon tsvimbo / ingots yevhoriyamu imwechete. Iyo dhayamita diki yedhaimani waya bhasibar uye yepakati particle size inozobatsirawo kudzikisa kurasikirwa kwekucheka, nekudaro kuwedzera huwandu hwewafers anogadzirwa. quantity. Zvinofungidzirwa kuti muna 2025 na2030, kubuda kwep-type 166mm size monocrystalline square rods inenge 71 uye 78 zvidimbu pakirogiramu, uye kubuda kwe polycrystalline square ingots inenge 62 uye 62 zvidimbu, izvo zvinokonzerwa nemusika wakaderera. chikamu chepolycrystalline silicon wafers Zvakaoma kukonzeresa kufambira mberi kwetekinoroji. Pane misiyano musimba remhando dzakasiyana uye saizi yesilicon wafers. Zvinoenderana nedatha yekuzivisa yeavhareji simba re158.75mm silicon wafers ingangoita 5.8W/chidimbu, avhareji simba re166mm saizi silicon wafers angangoita 6.25W/chidimbu, uye avhareji simba re182mm silicon wafers angangoita 6.25W/chidimbu. . Avhareji simba resaizi yesilicon wafer ingangoita 7.49W/chidimbu, uye avhareji simba re210mm saizi yesilicon wafer ingangoita gumi / chidimbu.
Mumakore achangopfuura, zvimedu zvesilicon zvakakura zvishoma nezvishoma munzira yehukuru hukuru, uye saizi yakakura inobatsira kuwedzera simba reiyo chip imwe chete, nekudaro kuderedza iyo isiri-silicon mutengo wemasero. Nekudaro, iyo saizi yekugadziriswa kwesilicon wafers inodawo kufunga kumusoro uye kuzasi kwekuenzanisa uye kumisa nyaya, kunyanya mutoro uye zvakakwirira zvazvino nyaya. Parizvino, kune makambi maviri pamusika ane chekuita neremangwana rekusimudzira silicon wafer saizi, anoti 182mm saizi uye 210mm saizi. Chikumbiro che 182mm chinonyanya kubva pakuona kwe vertical industry integration, zvichibva pakufungisisa kwekuiswa uye kutakura kwe photovoltaic masero, simba uye kushanda kwemamodules, uye kuwirirana pakati pepamusoro uye pasi; nepo 210mm iri kunyanya kubva pamaonero emutengo wekugadzira uye mutengo wehurongwa. Kubuda kwe210mm silicon wafers kwakawedzera neinopfuura 15% muchoto-cheto yekudhirowa, mutengo wekugadzira bhatiri wepasi wakaderedzwa neinosvika 0.02 yuan/W, uye mutengo wakakwana wekuvaka chiteshi chemagetsi wakaderedzwa neinosvika 0.1 yuan/ W. Mumakore mashoma anotevera, zvinotarisirwa kuti zvimedu zvesilicon zvine saizi iri pasi pe166mm zvichabviswa zvishoma nezvishoma; matambudziko ekukwira nekudzika kwe210mm silicon wafers anozogadziriswa zvishoma nezvishoma zvinobudirira, uye mutengo unova chinhu chakakosha chinokanganisa kudyara uye kugadzirwa kwemabhizinesi. Naizvozvo, chikamu chemusika che210mm silicon wafers chichawedzera. Kusimuka kwakasimba; 182mm silicon wafer ichave saizi huru mumusika nekuda kwezvakanaka zvayo mukugadzirwa kwakabatanidzwa, asi nebudiriro ye210mm silicon wafer application tekinoroji, 182mm ichapa nzira kwazviri. Pamusoro pezvo, zvakaoma kuti zvifukidzo zvakakura-saizi zvishandiswe zvakanyanya mumusika mumakore mashoma anotevera, nekuti mutengo wevashandi uye njodzi yekumisikidza yehukuru-hukuru silicon wafers ichawedzera zvakanyanya, izvo zvakaoma kubviswa ne kuchengetedza mumitengo yekugadzira uye mutengo wehurongwa. . Muna 2021, saizi yesilicon wafer pamusika inosanganisira 156.75mm, 157mm, 158.75mm, 166mm, 182mm, 210mm, nezvimwewo. Pakati pavo, saizi ye158.75mm uye 166mm yakaverengera makumi mashanu muzana ehuwandu, uye saizi ye56mm. yakaderera kusvika ku5%, iyo ichatsiviwa zvishoma nezvishoma mune ramangwana; 166mm ndiyo hombe saizi mhinduro inogona kukwidziridzwa kune iripo yekugadzira bhatiri mutsara, inova yakakura saizi mumakore maviri apfuura. Panyaya yehukuru hwekuchinja, zvinotarisirwa kuti chikamu chemusika chinenge chiri pasi pe2% muna 2030; saizi yakasanganiswa ye182mm ne210mm ichaita 45% muna 2021, uye chikamu chemusika chichawedzera nekukurumidza mune ramangwana. Zvinotarisirwa kuti chikamu chemusika chakazara muna 2030 chichapfuura 98%.
Mumakore achangopfuura, chikamu chemusika chemonocrystalline silicon chakaramba chichiwedzera, uye chakatora chinzvimbo chepamusoro mumusika. Kubva 2012 kusvika 2021, chikamu chemonocrystalline silicon chakasimuka kubva pasi pe20% kusvika 93.3%, kuwedzera kukuru. Muna 2018, ma silicon wafers pamusika anonyanya kuita polycrystalline silicon wafers, achiverengera anopfuura makumi mashanu%. Chikonzero chikuru ndechekuti mabhenefiti ehunyanzvi emonocrystalline silicon wafers haakwanise kuvhara mutengo unokanganisa. Kubva 2019, sezvo mafotoelectric ekushandura emagetsi emonocrystalline silicon wafers akanyanya kudarika ayo epolycrystalline silicon wafers, uye mutengo wekugadzira wemonocrystalline silicon wafers waramba uchidzikira nekufambira mberi kwetekinoroji, chikamu chemusika chemonocrystalline silicon wafers chakaramba chichiwedzera, chichiva. mukuru pamusika. chigadzirwa. Zvinotarisirwa kuti chikamu chemonocrystalline silicon wafers chinosvika 96% muna 2025, uye chikamu chemusika chemonocrystalline silicon wafers chichasvika 97.7% muna 2030. (Chirevo chinyorwa: Future Funga Tank)
1.3. Mabhatiri: PERC mabhatiri anotonga pamusika, uye kuvandudzwa kwen-mhando mabhatiri kunosundira kumusoro chigadzirwa.
Iyo yepakati yekubatanidza ye photovoltaic industry chain inosanganisira photovoltaic masero uye photovoltaic cell modules. Kugadziriswa kwesilicon wafers mumasero ndiro danho rakakosha pakuona kutendeuka kwephotoelectric. Zvinotora anenge nhanho nomwe kugadzirisa sero yakajairwa kubva pasilicon wafer. Kutanga, isa silicon wafer mu hydrofluoric acid kuti ibudise piramidhi-yakafanana suede chimiro pamusoro payo, nokudaro kuderedza kutaridzika kwechiedza chezuva uye kuwedzera kunyura kwechiedza; yechipiri iPhosphorus inoparadzirwa pamusoro peimwe rutivi rwesilicon wafer kuti iite PN junction, uye unhu hwayo hunokanganisa zvakananga kushanda kwesero; chechitatu ndechekubvisa PN junction yakaumbwa padivi resilicon wafer panguva yekupararira nhanho kudzivirira kupfupika kwesero; Imwe firimu yesilicon nitride yakaputirwa padivi apo iyo PN junction inoumbwa kuderedza chiedza chechiedza uye panguva imwechete kuwedzera kushanda; yechishanu ndeyekudhinda masimbi emagetsi kumberi uye kumashure kwesilicon wafer kuunganidza vashoma vatakuri vanogadzirwa ne photovoltaics; Dunhu rakadhindwa padanho rekudhinda rinopiswa uye rinoumbwa, uye rinosanganiswa nesilicon wafer, kureva, sero; pakupedzisira, masero ane siyana efficiencies anorongwa.
Crystalline silicon masero anowanzo gadzirwa nesilicon wafers se substrates, uye anogona kukamurwa kuita p-mhando maseru uye n-mhando maseru zvichienderana nerudzi rwesilicon wafers. Pakati pavo, n-mhando masero ane hukuru hwekushandura uye zvishoma nezvishoma ari kutsiva p-mhando masero mumakore achangopfuura. P-mhando silicon wafers anogadzirwa nedoping silicon ine boron, uye n-mhando silicon wafers anogadzirwa nephosphorus. Naizvozvo, huwandu hwe boron element mu n-type silicon wafer yakadzikira, nekudaro ichitadzisa kubatanidzwa kwe boron-oxygen complexes, kuvandudza vashoma vanotakura hupenyu hwesilicon zvinhu, uye panguva imwecheteyo, hapana foto-induced attenuation. mubhatiri. Pamusoro pezvo, n-mhando mishoma inotakura maburi, iyo p-mhando vashoma vatakuri maerekitironi, uye kuteya kuchinjika-chikamu chemaatomu mazhinji ekusachena kwemaburi idiki pane iyo maerekitironi. Naizvozvo, iyo diki inotakura hupenyu hweiyo n-mhando sero yakakwira uye iyo photoelectric kutendeuka rate yakakwira. Maererano nedhata yerabhoritari, muganhu wepamusoro wekushandura kwep-type masero ndeye 24.5%, uye kushanduka kwemaitiro e-n-type masero anosvika 28.7%, saka n-mhando masero anomiririra nzira yekuvandudza teknolojia yeramangwana. Muna 2021, n-mhando masero (kunyanya kusanganisira heterojunction masero uye TOPCon masero) ane mutengo wakakwira, uye chiyero chekugadzirwa kwehuwandu huchiri hudiki. Mugove wemusika wazvino ungangoita 3%, izvo zvakangofanana neiyo muna 2020.
Muna 2021, kushandurwa kwakanaka kwen-mhando masero kuchavandudzwa zvakanyanya, uye zvinotarisirwa kuti pachave nenzvimbo yakawanda yekufambira mberi kwetekinoroji mumakore mashanu anotevera. Muna 2021, kugadzirwa kwakakura kwe-p-type monocrystalline masero kuchashandisa teknolojia yePERC, uye chiyero chekushandura chinoshanda chichasvika 23.1%, kuwedzera kwe 0.3 muzana yezvikamu zvichienzaniswa ne2020; kushandiswa kwekushandura kwepolycrystalline black silicon masero anoshandisa teknolojia yePERC ichasvika 21.0%, kana ichienzaniswa ne2020. Kuwedzera kwegore negore kwe 0.2 muzana; yakajairwa polycrystalline dema silicon cell mashandiro ekugadzirisa haina kusimba, iyo shanduko inoshanda muna 2021 ichave inosvika 19.5%, chete 0.1 muzana poindi yepamusoro, uye remangwana rekuvandudza nzvimbo ishoma; avhareji yekushandura inobudirira yeingot monocrystalline PERC masero ndeye 22.4%, iyo 0.7 muzana inoderera kupfuura iyo yemonocrystalline PERC masero; chiyero chekushandura kwen-type TOPCon masero anosvika 24%, uye avhareji yekushandura masero eheterojunction inosvika 24.2%, iyo yose yakagadziridzwa zvikuru kana ichienzaniswa ne2020, uye chiyero chekushandura masero eIBC anosvika 24.2%. Nekuvandudzwa kwehunyanzvi mune ramangwana, matekinoroji ebhatiri akadai seTBC neHBC anogonawo kuramba achifambira mberi. Mune ramangwana, nekudzikiswa kwemitengo yekugadzira uye kuvandudzwa kwegoho, n-mhando mabhatiri ichava imwe yenzira huru dzekusimudzira yebhatiri tekinoroji.
Kubva pamaonero enzira yebhatiri tekinoroji, iyo iterative yekuvandudza yebhatiri tekinoroji yakanyanya kupfuura neBSF, PERC, TOPCon yakavakirwa pakuvandudzwa kwePERC, uye HJT, tekinoroji nyowani inobvisa PERC; TOPCon inogona kusanganiswa zvakare neIBC kugadzira TBC, uye HJT inogona zvakare kusanganiswa neIBC kuita HBC. P-type monocrystalline masero anonyanya kushandisa PERC tekinoroji, p-type polycrystalline masero anosanganisira polycrystalline black silicon masero uye ingot monocrystalline masero, iyo yekupedzisira inoreva kuwedzerwa kwemakristaro embeu yemonocrystalline pahwaro hweyakajairwa polycrystalline ingot process, directional solidification Mushure meizvozvo, a square silicon ingot inogadzirwa, uye silicon wafer yakasanganiswa nekristaro imwechete uye polycrystalline inogadzirwa kuburikidza neakateedzana ekugadzirisa maitiro. Nekuti inonyanya kushandisa nzira yekugadzirira polycrystalline, inosanganisirwa muchikamu chep-mhando polycrystalline masero. Iyo n-mhando masero anonyanya kusanganisira TOPCon monocrystalline masero, HJT monocrystalline masero uye IBC monocrystalline masero. Muna 2021, mitsara mitsva yekugadzira yakawanda icharamba ichitongwa nePERC masero ekugadzira mitsara, uye chikamu chemusika chemasero ePERC chichawedzera kuwedzera kusvika pa91.2%. Sezvo kudiwa kwechigadzirwa kumapurojekiti ekunze uye emumba kwakanangana nezvigadzirwa zvepamusoro-soro, chikamu chemusika wemabhatiri eBSF chichadonha kubva pa8.8% kusvika pa5% muna 2021.
1.4. Modules: Mutengo wemasero unoverengera chikamu chikuru, uye simba remamodules rinoenderana nemasero
Matanho ekugadzira e photovoltaic modules anonyanya kusanganisira cell interconnection uye lamination, uye masero anotora chikamu chikuru chemari yose yemodule. Sezvo ikozvino uye voltage yesero rimwe idiki kwazvo, maseru anoda kubatanidzwa kuburikidza nemabhawa. Pano, iwo akabatanidzwa munhevedzano kuti awedzere magetsi, uye obva abatanidzwa mukuenderana kuti awane yakakwirira ikozvino, uye ipapo photovoltaic girazi, EVA kana POE, bhatiri Sheet, EVA kana POE, pepa rekumashure rakavharwa uye kupisa kunotsikirirwa mune imwe nzira. , uye pakupedzisira yakachengetedzwa nealuminium furemu uye silicone yekuisa chisimbiso mupendero. Kubva pamaonero echikamu chekugadzira mutengo wekuumbwa, mutengo wezvinhu unotora 75%, uchigara pachinzvimbo chikuru, uchiteverwa nemutengo wekugadzira, mutengo wekuita uye mutengo wevashandi. Mutengo wezvinhu unotungamirirwa nemari yemasero. Maererano nezviziviso kubva kumakambani akawanda, masero anotora inenge 2/3 yemari yose ye photovoltaic modules.
Photovoltaic modules anowanzo kukamurwa zvichienderana nesero rudzi, saizi, uye huwandu. Pane misiyano musimba remamodule akasiyana, asi ese ari mudanho rinokwira. Simba chiratidzo chakakosha che photovoltaic modules, inomiririra kugona kwemodule kushandura simba rezuva kuita magetsi. Inogona kuonekwa kubva kuhuwandu hwemasimba emhando dzakasiyana-siyana dze photovoltaic modules iyo kana ukuru uye nhamba yemasero ari mumodule akafanana, simba remodhiyo n-type single crystal> p-type single crystal> polycrystalline; Iyo yakakura saizi uye huwandu, iyo yakakura simba reiyo module; nokuda kweTOPCon single crystal modules uye heterojunction modules yezvinyorwa zvakafanana, simba rekupedzisira rakakura kudarika rekare. Zvinoenderana nekufungidzira kweCPIA, simba remodule richawedzera ne5-10W pagore mumakore mashoma anotevera. Uye zvakare, module yekurongedza ichaunza kumwe kurasikirwa kwesimba, kunyanya kusanganisira kurasikirwa kwemaziso uye kurasikirwa kwemagetsi. Iyo yekutanga inokonzerwa nekutapurirana uye kusawirirana kwemaziso ekutakura zvinhu senge photovoltaic girazi uye EVA, uye iyo yekupedzisira inonyanya kureva kushandiswa kwemasero ezuva munhevedzano. Kurasikirwa kwedunhu kunokonzerwa nekupokana kweribhoni rewelding uye bhari yebhazi pachayo, uye ikozvino kusawirirana kurasikirwa kunokonzerwa nekubatana kwakafanana kwemaseru, kurasikirwa kwesimba kwese kweakaundi mbiri kune anenge 8%.
1.5. Photovoltaic yakaiswa simba: Mitemo yenyika dzakasiyana-siyana zviri pachena kuti inofambiswa, uye kune nzvimbo huru yehutsva hwakaiswa huwandu mune ramangwana.
Nyika yakasvika pakubvumirana pane net zero emissions pasi pechinangwa chekuchengetedza kwezvakatipoteredza, uye hupfumi hwe superimposed photovoltaic mapurojekiti akabuda zvishoma nezvishoma. Nyika dziri kushingaira kuongorora kuvandudzwa kwesimba rekugadzira magetsi. Mumakore achangopfuura, nyika dzepasi rose dzakaita zvisungo zvekudzikisa kuburitswa kwecarbon. Mazhinji emagetsi makuru egreenhouse gasi emitter akagadzira zvinoenderana neanodzoreredzwa simba tarisiro, uye iyo yakaiswa inogonesa simba rinodzokororwa yakakura. Kubva pane 1.5 ℃ tembiricha yekudzora tarisiro, IRENA inofanotaura kuti pasi rose yakaiswa renewable simba simba richasvika 10.8TW muna 2030. Mukuwedzera, maererano neWOODMac data, chiyero chemutengo wemagetsi (LCOE) yekugadzira simba rezuva muChina, India, United States nedzimwe nyika dzakatodzika kudarika simba refossil rakachipa, uye richaramba richiderera mune ramangwana. Kusimudzirwa kwemaitiro emitemo munyika dzakasiyana-siyana uye hupfumi hwekugadzirwa kwemagetsi e photovoltaic zvakakonzera kuwedzera kwakasimba kwehuwandu hwakaiswa hwe photovoltaics munyika neChina mumakore achangopfuura. Kubva 2012 kusvika 2021, iyo yakawedzera yakaiswa simba yephotovoltaics munyika ichawedzera kubva pa104.3GW kusvika 849.5GW, uye iyo yakawedzera yakaiswa yephotovoltaics muChina ichawedzera kubva pa6.7GW kusvika 307GW, kuwedzera kwekanopfuura ka44. Pamusoro pezvo, China ichangobva kuisirwa photovoltaic capacity accounts inodarika 20% yehuwandu hwepasi rose yakaiswa. Muna 2021, China ichangobva kuisirwa photovoltaic simba ndeye 53GW, inoverengera inosvika makumi mana muzana epasi rose ichangobva kuiswa. Izvi zvinonyanya kukonzerwa nekuwanda uye kwakafanana kugoverwa kwemagetsi emagetsi emagetsi muChina, yakanyatsogadzirwa kumusoro uye pasi, uye kutsigirwa kwakasimba kwemitemo yenyika. Munguva iyi, China yakaita basa rakakura mukugadzirwa kwemagetsi ephotovoltaic, uye iyo yakawedzera yakaiswa simba yakaverengera isingasviki 6.5%. wakashanduka kusvika muna +36.14%.
Kubva pane ongororo iri pamusoro, CPIA yakapa fungidziro yezvichangobva kuwedzera photovoltaic kumisikidzwa kubva 2022 kusvika 2030 pasi rese. Zvinofungidzirwa kuti pasi pezvese tarisiro uye nekuchengetedza mamiriro, huwandu hwepasi rose huchangobva kuiswa muna 2030 huchave 366 uye 315GW zvichiteerana, uye huchangobva kuisirwa huwandu hweChina huchave 128. , 105GW. Pazasi isu tichafanotaura kudiwa kwepolysilicon zvichienderana nechiyero chezvichangobva kuisirwa kugona gore rega.
1.6. Kuda kufanotaura kwepolysilicon yephotovoltaic application
Kubva 2022 kusvika 2030, zvichibva pakufanotaura kweCPIA yepasi rose ichangobva kuwedzera PV kuisirwa pasi pese ane tariro uye anochengetedza mamiriro, kudiwa kwepolysilicon yePV application kunogona kufanotaurwa. Masero inhanho yakakosha yekuona kutendeuka kwephotoelectric, uye masilicon wafers ndiwo akakosha zvinhu zvemasero uye akananga kudzika kwepolysilicon, saka chikamu chakakosha chepolysilicon inoda kufanotaura. Huwandu hwakayerwa hwezvimedu pakirogiramu yesilicon tsvimbo uye ingots inogona kuverengerwa kubva kuhuwandu hwezvidimbu pakirogiramu uye chikamu chemusika chesilicon tsvimbo uye ingots. Zvadaro, maererano nesimba uye mugove wemusika wesilicon wafers wehukuru hwakasiyana, simba rakaremerwa resilicon wafers rinogona kuwanikwa, uye ipapo nhamba inodiwa yesilicon wafers inogona kufungidzirwa maererano ichangobva kuiswa photovoltaic simba. Tevere, huremu hwemasilicon tsvimbo uye ingots dzinodiwa dzinogona kuwanikwa zvichienderana nehuwandu hwehukama pakati pehuwandu hwemasilicon wafers uye huremu hwehuwandu hwesilicon tsvimbo nesilicon ingots pakirogiramu. Kuwedzera kusanganiswa nekuremerwa kwesilicon kushandiswa kwesilicon rods / silicon ingots, kudiwa kwepolysilicon kune ichangobva kuisirwa photovoltaic kugona kunogona kuwanikwa pakupedzisira. Zvinoenderana nemhedzisiro yemhedzisiro, kudiwa kwepasirese kwepolysilicon yezvitsva zvekuisa photovoltaic mumakore mashanu apfuura kucharamba kuchikwira, kuchikwira muna 2027, uyezve kuderera zvishoma mumakore matatu anotevera. Zvinofungidzirwa kuti pasi petarisiro uye kuchengetedza mamiriro muna 2025, kudiwa kwepagore kwepolysilicon kwekuisa photovoltaic kuchave 1,108,900 matani uye 907,800 matani zvichiteerana, uye kudiwa kwepasi rose kwepolysilicon yephotovoltaic application muna 2030 ichave 1,042,100 mamiriro etarisiro uye matani ekuchengetedza. . , 896,900 matani. Maererano neChinachikamu chepasi rose photovoltaic yakaiswa simba,Kudiwa kweChina kwepolysilicon yekushandisa photovoltaic muna 2025inotarisirwa kuve 369,600 matani uye 302,600 matani zvakateerana pasi petarisiro uye nekuchengetedza mamiriro, uye 739,300 matani uye 605,200 matani mhiri kwemakungwa zvakateerana.
2, Semiconductor yekupedzisira kudiwa: Chiyero chakanyanya kudiki pane chinodiwa mumunda we photovoltaic, uye kukura mune ramangwana kunogona kutarisirwa.
Pamusoro pekugadzira masero ephotovoltaic, polysilicon inogonawo kushandiswa seyakagadzirwa kugadzira machipisi uye inoshandiswa mumunda we semiconductor, iyo inogona kupatsanurwa mukugadzira mota, maindasitiri emagetsi, kutaurirana kwemagetsi, midziyo yemumba nemimwe minda. Iyo nzira kubva ku polysilicon kuenda kune chip inonyanya kukamurwa kuita matanho matatu. Kutanga, iyo polysilicon inodhonzwa mumonocrystalline silicon ingots, uye yozocheka kuita matete silicon wafers. Silicon wafers anogadzirwa kuburikidza nekutevedzana kwekukuya, chamfering uye polishing mashandiro. , inova ndiyo yakakosha zvinhu zveiyo semiconductor fekitori. Chekupedzisira, iyo silicon wafer inochekwa uye laser yakanyorwa mune akasiyana edunhu masisitimu kugadzira chip zvigadzirwa zvine humwe hunhu. Yakajairwa silicon wafers anonyanya kusanganisira akakwenenzverwa wafers, epitaxial wafers uye SOI wafers. Yakakwenenzverwa wafer ndeye chip yekugadzira zvinhu ine yakakwira flatness inowanikwa nekupukuta iyo silicon wafer kubvisa yakakanganisika layer pamusoro, iyo inogona kushandiswa zvakananga kugadzira machipisi, epitaxial wafers uye SOI silicon wafers. Epitaxial wafers anowanikwa ne epitaxial kukura kweakakwenenzverwa wafers, nepo SOI silicon wafers anogadzirwa ne bonding kana ion implantation pane akakwenenzverwa wafer substrates, uye maitiro ekugadzirira akaoma.
Kuburikidza nezvinodiwa zvepolysilicon padivi resemiconductor muna 2021, zvakasanganiswa nekufanotaura kweiyo agency yekukura kweindasitiri yesemiconductor mumakore mashoma anotevera, kudiwa kwepolysilicon mumunda wesemiconductor kubva 2022 kusvika 2025 kunogona kufungidzirwa. Muna 2021, iyo yepasi rose yemagetsi-giredhi polysilicon kugadzirwa ichaverengera inosvika 6% yeiyo yakazara polysilicon kugadzirwa, uye solar-giredhi polysilicon uye granular silicon ichaita inosvika makumi mapfumbamwe nemana%. Yakawanda yemagetsi-giredhi polysilicon inoshandiswa mumunda we semiconductor, uye imwe polysilicon inonyanya kushandiswa muindasitiri yephotovoltaic. . Naizvozvo, zvinogona kufungidzirwa kuti huwandu hwepolysilicon inoshandiswa muindasitiri yesemiconductor muna 2021 ingangoita zviuru makumi matatu nezvinomwe zvematani. Pamusoro pezvo, maererano neremangwana rekukura kwekukura kweindasitiri yesemiconductor yakafanotaurwa neFortuneBusiness Insights, kudiwa kwepolysilicon yekushandisa semiconductor kuchawedzera pachiyero chegore che8.6% kubva 2022 kusvika 2025. Zvinofungidzirwa kuti muna 2025, kudiwa kwe polysilicon mumunda we semiconductor ichave yakatenderedza 51,500 matani. (Chirevo chinyorwa: Future Funga Tank)
3, Polysilicon kupinza uye kutumira kunze kwenyika: kunze kwenyika kunodarika kunze kwenyika, neGermany neMalaysia zvichiverengera chikamu chepamusoro
Muna 2021, ingangoita 18.63% yeChina yepolysilicon inodikanwa ichabva kune kunze kwenyika, uye chiyero chezvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika chinodarika mwero wezvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika. Kubva 2017 kusvika 2021, kupinza uye kutumira kunze kwe polysilicon maitiro anotungamirwa nekunze, izvo zvingave zvichikonzerwa nekudzika kwakasimba kudiwa kweindasitiri yephotovoltaic iyo yakasimukira nekukurumidza mumakore achangopfuura, uye kudiwa kwayo kwepolysilicon account kweanopfuura 94% ye total demand; Pamusoro pezvo, kambani haisati yaziva tekinoroji yekugadzira ye-high-purity electronic-giredhi polysilicon, saka imwe polysilicon inodiwa neiyo yakabatanidzwa yedunhu indasitiri ichiri kuda kuvimba nekunze. Zvinoenderana nedatha yeSilicon Indasitiri Bazi, huwandu hwekunze hwakaramba huchidzikira muna 2019 na2020. Chikonzero chakakosha chekudzikira kwepolysilicon kunze kwenyika muna 2019 kwaive kuwedzera kukuru kwehuwandu hwekugadzira, hwakasimuka kubva pa388,000 matani muna 2018 kusvika 452,000 matani. mu 2019. Panguva imwecheteyo, OCI, REC, HANWHA Mamwe makambani ekumhiri kwemakungwa, akadai semamwe makambani ekumhiri kwemakungwa, akabuda kubva kumakambani epolysilicon nekuda kwekurasikirwa, saka kutenderera kwepolysilicon kunobva kune dzimwe nyika kwakaderera zvikuru; kunyange zvazvo simba rekugadzira risina kuwedzera muna 2020, kukanganisa kwedenda kwakakonzera kunonoka mukuvakwa kwemapurojekiti e photovoltaic, uye nhamba yemirairo yepolysilicon yakaderera munguva imwe chete. Muna 2021, musika weChina wephotovoltaic uchakura nekukurumidza, uye iko kunwiwa kwepolysilicon kuchasvika mazana matanhatu nemakumi matatu ezviuru zvematani, zvichifambisa huwandu hwekupinza kuti hudzoke. Mumakore mashanu adarika, huwandu hweChina hwepolysilicon yekunze hwave pakati pe90,000 ne140,000 matani, ayo angangoita 103,800 matani muna 2021. Zvinotarisirwa kuti China net polysilicon import volume icharamba yakatenderedza 100,000 matani pagore kubva 2022 kusvika 2025.
China inotengeswa ne polysilicon inonyanya kubva kuGermany, Malaysia, Japan neTaiwan, China, uye yose inotengeswa kubva kunyika ina idzi ichaita 90.51% muna 2021. Zvingangoita makumi mana neshanu kubva muzana zveChina zve polysilicon zvinobva kuGermany, 26% kubva kuMalaysia. 13.5% kubva kuJapan, uye 6% kubva kuTaiwan. Germany ndiyo muridzi wepolysilicon hofori yepasi rose WACKER, inova ndiyo hombe sosi yepolysilicon yemhiri kwemakungwa, inoverengera 12.7% yehuwandu hwepasi rose hwekugadzira muna 2021; Malaysia ine nhamba huru yemitsara yekugadzira polysilicon kubva kuSouth Korea yeOCI Kambani, iyo inotangira kubva kune yepakutanga mutsara wekugadzira muMalaysia weTOKUYAMA, kambani yekuJapan yakatorwa neOCI. Kune mafekitori uye mamwe mafekitori akatamiswa neOCI kubva kuSouth Korea kuenda kuMalaysia. Chikonzero chekutamiswa ndechekuti Malaysia inopa nzvimbo yemahara fekitori uye mutengo wemagetsi wakaderera chikamu chimwe muzvitatu pane weSouth Korea; Japan neTaiwan, China vane TOKUYAMA, GET nemamwe makambani, ayo anotora chikamu chikuru chekugadzirwa kwepolysilicon. nzvimbo. Muna 2021, iyo polysilicon inobuda ichave 492,000 matani, ayo achangobva kuisirwa photovoltaic simba uye chip kugadzirwa kudiwa kuchave 206,400 matani uye 1,500 matani zvichiteerana, uye asara mazana maviri nemakumi masere nemazana mana emazana emazana achanyanya kushandiswa kugadzira pasi pemvura uye kutengeswa kunze kwenyika. Mumakona ekudzika kwepolysilicon, silicon wafers, maseru uye mamodule anonyanya kutumirwa kunze, pakati peiyo kunze kwenyika mamodule anonyanya kutaridzika. Muna 2021, 4.64 bhiriyoni masilicon wafers uye 3.2 bhiriyoni photovoltaic masero akangakunze kwenyikakubva kuChina, nekutengesa kunze kwenyika kwe22.6GW uye 10.3GW zvakateerana, uye kutengeswa kunze kwenyika kwemafotovoltaic modules i98.5GW, ine zvinhu zvishoma kubva kunze kwenyika. Panyaya yekuumbwa kwemutengo wekutengesa kunze kwenyika, module inotengeswa kunze kwenyika muna 2021 ichasvika US $ 24.61 bhiriyoni, inoverengera 86%, ichiteverwa nesilicon wafers nemabhatiri. Muna 2021, kuburitswa kwepasi rose kwesilicon wafers, photovoltaic cell, uye photovoltaic modules kuchasvika 97.3%, 85.1%, uye 82.3%, zvichiteerana. Zvinotarisirwa kuti indasitiri yepasi rose yephotovoltaic icharamba ichitarisa muChina mukati memakore matatu anotevera, uye kuburitsa uye kuburitsa vhoriyamu yekubatanidza yega yega ichave yakakura. Naizvozvo, zvinofungidzirwa kuti kubva 2022 kusvika 2025, huwandu hwepolysilicon inoshandiswa kugadzira uye kugadzira zvigadzirwa zvepasi uye kutengeswa kunze kwenyika zvichawedzera zvishoma nezvishoma. Inofungidzirwa nekubvisa kugadzirwa kwemhiri kwemakungwa kubva mhiri kwepolysilicon kudiwa. Muna 2025, polysilicon inogadzirwa nekugadzirwa muzvigadzirwa zvepasi inofungidzirwa kutumira 583,000 Matani kune dzimwe nyika kubva kuChina.
4, Pfupiso uye Outlook
Iko kudiwa kwepasi rose kwepolysilicon kunonyanya kutariswa mumunda wephotovoltaic, uye kudiwa mumunda we semiconductor hakusi kurongeka kwehukuru. Iko kudiwa kwepolysilicon kunotungamirirwa ne photovoltaic installs, uye zvishoma nezvishoma inotumirwa ku polysilicon kuburikidza nekubatanidza kwe photovoltaic modules-cell-wafer, ichiita kudiwa kwayo. Mune ramangwana, nekuwedzera kwepasi rose photovoltaic yakaiswa simba, kudiwa kwepolysilicon kunowanzo kuve netarisiro. Netarisiro, China nekumhiri kwemakungwa kuchangowedzera kuisirwa PV kuchikonzera kudiwa kwepolysilicon muna 2025 kuchave 36.96GW uye 73.93GW zvakateerana, uye kudiwa pasi pemamiriro ekuchengetedza kuchasvikawo 30.24GW uye 60.49GW zvichiteerana. Muna 2021, iyo yepasi rose yepolysilicon kupihwa uye kudiwa kuchave kwakaomarara, zvichikonzera yakakwirira yepasi rose yepolysilicon mitengo. Mamiriro ezvinhu aya anogona kuenderera mberi kusvika muna 2022, uye zvishoma nezvishoma anosvika padanho rekusunungurwa mushure me2023. Muchikamu chechipiri che2020, kukanganisa kwedenda kwakatanga kupera simba, uye kuwedzera kwekugadzirwa kwepasi kwakafambisa kudiwa kwepolysilicon, uye mamwe makambani anotungamira akaronga. kuwedzera kugadzirwa. Nekudaro, kutenderera kwekuwedzera kweanopfuura gore nehafu kwakakonzera kuburitswa kwesimba rekugadzira pakupera kwa2021 uye 2022, zvichikonzera kuwedzera kwe4.24% muna 2021. Pane gap rekupa rematani gumi, saka mitengo yakakwira. zvakapinza. Zvinofanotaurwa kuti muna 2022, pasi petarisiro uye inochengetedza mamiriro eiyo photovoltaic yakaiswa simba, iyo yekugovera uye yekuda gap ichave -156,500 matani uye 2,400 matani zvichiteerana, uye kupihwa kwese kuchange kuchiri munzvimbo yekupfupika. Muna 2023 uye mberi, mapurojekiti matsva akatanga kuvakwa mukupera kwa2021 uye kutanga kwa2022 achatanga kugadzira uye kuwana ramp-up mukukwanisa kugadzira. Kutengesa uye kudiwa zvichadzikira zvishoma nezvishoma, uye mitengo inogona kunge iri pasi pekumanikidzwa kuderera. Mukutevera, kutarisa kunofanira kubhadharwa kune zvinokonzerwa nehondo yeRussia-Ukrainian pamagetsi epasi rose, iyo inogona kuchinja hurongwa hwepasi rose huchangobva kuiswa photovoltaic simba, izvo zvinokanganisa kudiwa kwepolysilicon.
(Chinyorwa ichi chingori chekutarisa kwevatengi veUrbanMines uye hachimiriri chero zano rekudyara)