1, Kufunika kwa mapeto a Photovoltaic: Kufunika kwa mphamvu yoyika mphamvu ya photovoltaic ndikolimba, ndipo kufunikira kwa polysilicon kumasinthidwa kutengera zomwe zanenedweratu.
1.1. Kugwiritsa ntchito polysilicon: Padziko lonse lapansikuchuluka kwa magwiritsidwe akuchulukirachulukira, makamaka pakupangira magetsi a photovoltaic
Zaka khumi zapitazi, dziko lapansipolysiliconkugwiritsidwa ntchito kukupitirirabe, ndipo chiwerengero cha China chapitirizabe kukula, motsogozedwa ndi mafakitale a photovoltaic. Kuyambira 2012 mpaka 2021, kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa polysilicon padziko lonse lapansi kumawonetsa kukwera kuchokera ku matani 237,000 mpaka matani pafupifupi 653,000. Mu 2018, ndondomeko yatsopano ya photovoltaic ya 531 ya China inayambitsidwa, zomwe zinachepetsa momveka bwino ndalama zothandizira magetsi a photovoltaic. Mphamvu ya photovoltaic yomwe idakhazikitsidwa kumene idatsika ndi 18% pachaka, ndipo kufunikira kwa polysilicon kudakhudzidwa. Kuyambira 2019, boma lakhazikitsa mfundo zingapo zolimbikitsa grid parity ya photovoltaics. Ndi chitukuko chofulumira cha mafakitale a photovoltaic, kufunikira kwa polysilicon kwalowanso nthawi yakukula mofulumira. Nthawi imeneyi, chiwerengero cha mowa China polysilicon mu okwana mowa padziko lonse anapitiriza kuwuka, kuchokera 61,5% mu 2012 mpaka 93,9% mu 2021, makamaka chifukwa China mofulumira kukula makampani photovoltaic. Malinga ndi momwe amagwiritsidwira ntchito padziko lonse lapansi amitundu yosiyanasiyana ya polysilicon mu 2021, zida za silicon zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito pama cell a photovoltaic zitha kukhala pafupifupi 94%, zomwe ma solar-grade polysilicon ndi granular silicon amakhala 91% ndi 3%, motsatana. polysilicon yamagetsi yamagetsi yomwe ingagwiritsidwe ntchito tchipisi ndi 94%. Chiŵerengerocho ndi 6%, zomwe zimasonyeza kuti kufunikira kwaposachedwa kwa polysilicon kumayendetsedwa ndi photovoltaics. Zikuyembekezeka kuti ndi kutentha kwa mfundo ziwiri za carbon, kufunikira kwa mphamvu ya photovoltaic kudzakhala kolimba, ndipo kugwiritsira ntchito ndi gawo la polysilicon ya solar-grade idzapitirira kuwonjezeka.
1.2. Chophika cha silicon: chowotcha cha silicon cha monocrystalline chimakhala chachikulu, ndipo ukadaulo wa Czochralski wopitilira umakula mwachangu.
Ulalo wolunjika wakumunsi wa polysilicon ndi zowotcha za silicon, ndipo China pakadali pano ikulamulira msika wapadziko lonse wa silicon wafer. Kuchokera mu 2012 mpaka 2021, mphamvu yopangira silicon yapadziko lonse lapansi komanso yaku China idapitilira kukula, ndipo makampani opanga ma photovoltaic adapitilirabe kukula. Zophika za silicon zimagwira ntchito ngati mlatho wolumikiza zida za silicon ndi mabatire, ndipo palibe cholemetsa pakupanga, chifukwa chake ikupitiliza kukopa makampani ambiri kuti alowe mumakampani. Mu 2021, opanga ma silicon opangira ma silicon anali atakula kwambirikupangaKuthekera kwa 213.5GW kutulutsa, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti padziko lonse lapansi kupanga ma silicon achuluke mpaka 215.4GW. Malinga ndi zomwe zilipo komanso zomwe zangowonjezereka kumene ku China, zikuyembekezeka kuti chiwonjezeko chapachaka chidzasunga 15-25% m'zaka zingapo zikubwerazi, ndipo kupanga zofewa zaku China kudzakhalabe ndi udindo waukulu padziko lonse lapansi.
Silicon ya polycrystalline imatha kupangidwa kukhala ma polycrystalline silicon ingots kapena ndodo za silicon monocrystalline. Njira yopanga ma polycrystalline silicon ingots makamaka imaphatikizapo njira yoponyera ndi njira yosungunula mwachindunji. Pakalipano, mtundu wachiwiri ndi njira yaikulu, ndipo chiwerengero cha imfa chimasungidwa pafupifupi 5%. Njira yoponyera ndiyo kusungunula zinthu za silicon mu crucible poyamba, kenako ndikuziponya mu crucible ina yotenthetserapo kuti izizirike. Poyang'anira kuzizira, polycrystalline silicon ingot imaponyedwa ndi ukadaulo wowongolera. Njira yowotchera yotentha ya njira yowongoka mwachindunji ndi yofanana ndi njira yoponyera, yomwe polysilicon imasungunuka mwachindunji mu crucible poyamba, koma sitepe yoziziritsa ndi yosiyana ndi njira yoponyera. Ngakhale kuti njira ziwirizi ndizofanana kwambiri m'chilengedwe, njira yosungunula mwachindunji imangofunika crucible imodzi, ndipo mankhwala a polysilicon opangidwa ndi abwino, omwe amathandiza kuti kukula kwa polycrystalline silicon ingots ndi kuyang'ana bwino, ndipo kukula kwake n'kosavuta. automate, yomwe ingapangitse malo amkati mwa kuchepetsa Kulakwitsa kwa kristalo. Pakalipano, mabizinesi otsogola pamakampani opanga mphamvu zamagetsi amagwiritsa ntchito njira yosungunula mwachindunji kupanga ma polycrystalline silicon ingots, ndipo zomwe zili mkati mwa kaboni ndi okosijeni ndizochepa, zomwe zimayendetsedwa pansipa 10ppma ndi 16ppma. M'tsogolomu, kupanga ma polycrystalline silicon ingots kudzapitirizabe kuyendetsedwa ndi njira yosungunula mwachindunji, ndipo kutayika kudzakhalabe pafupifupi 5% mkati mwa zaka zisanu.
Kupanga kwa ndodo za silicon za monocrystalline makamaka kumachokera ku njira ya Czochralski, yowonjezeredwa ndi njira yosungunula yoyimitsidwa yoyimitsidwa, ndipo zinthu zomwe zimapangidwa ndi awiriwa zimakhala ndi ntchito zosiyanasiyana. Njira ya Czochralski imagwiritsa ntchito graphite kukana kutentha kwa silicon ya polycrystalline mu crucible ya quartz yoyera kwambiri mu chubu chowongoka chotenthetsera kuti isungunuke, kenaka ikani kristalo wambewu pamwamba pa kusungunula kuti muphatikizidwe, ndikutembenuza kristalo wa mbewu ndikutembenuza crucible. , krustalo ya mbewu imakwezedwa pang'onopang'ono m'mwamba, ndipo silicon ya monocrystalline imapezeka kudzera mu kubzala, kukulitsa, kutembenuza mapewa, kukula kofanana, ndikumaliza. Njira yosungunulira yoyandama yoyandama imatanthawuza kukonza zinthu zamtundu wa polycrystalline woyenga kwambiri m'chipinda chang'anjo, kusuntha koyilo yachitsulo pang'onopang'ono motsatira njira yautali wa polycrystalline ndikudutsa polycrystalline columnar, ndikudutsa ma frequency apamwamba a wailesi muzitsulo. koyilo kupanga Mbali ya mkati mwa polycrystalline mzati koyilo imasungunuka, ndipo koyiloyo ikasunthidwa, kusungunulako kumasungunukanso kupanga kristalo umodzi. Chifukwa cha njira zosiyanasiyana zopangira, pali kusiyana kwa zida zopangira, ndalama zopangira komanso mtundu wazinthu. Pakalipano, zinthu zomwe zimapezedwa ndi njira yosungunula zone zimakhala ndi chiyero chachikulu ndipo zingagwiritsidwe ntchito popanga zida za semiconductor, pamene njira ya Czochralski imatha kukwaniritsa zofunikira zopangira crystal silicon ya maselo a photovoltaic ndipo ili ndi mtengo wotsika, choncho ndi njira yayikulu. Mu 2021, gawo la msika la njira yokoka yowongoka ndi pafupifupi 85%, ndipo akuyembekezeka kukwera pang'ono m'zaka zingapo zikubwerazi. Magawo amsika mu 2025 ndi 2030 anenedweratu kuti adzakhala 87% ndi 90% motsatana. Pankhani ya chigawo chosungunuka cha crystal silicon, kuchuluka kwa chigawo cha chigawo chosungunuka cha crystal silicon ndikokwera kwambiri padziko lapansi. kugula), TOPSIL (Denmark) . M'tsogolomu, kuchuluka kwa silicon imodzi yosungunuka sikudzawonjezeka kwambiri. Chifukwa chake ndi chakuti matekinoloje okhudzana ndi China ndi obwerera m'mbuyo poyerekeza ndi Japan ndi Germany, makamaka mphamvu ya zipangizo zotentha zotentha kwambiri komanso zochitika za crystallization. Ukadaulo wa kristalo wosakanikirana wa silicon m'mimba mwake yayikulu umafuna mabizinesi aku China kuti apitilize kufufuza okha.
Njira ya Czochralski imatha kugawidwa muukadaulo wokoka makristalo mosalekeza (CCZ) ndiukadaulo wokoka kristalo wobwerezabwereza (RCZ). Pakali pano, njira yodziwika bwino mumakampaniyi ndi RCZ, yomwe ili pakusintha kuchoka ku RCZ kupita ku CCZ. Masitepe amodzi okoka ndi kudyetsa a RZC ndi odziyimira pawokha. Isanayambe kukoka kulikonse, ingot imodzi ya kristalo iyenera kukhazikika ndikuchotsedwa m'chipinda cha pakhomo, pamene CCZ imatha kuzindikira kudyetsa ndi kusungunuka pamene ikukoka. RCZ ndi yokhwima, ndipo pali mwayi wochepa wokonzanso luso lamakono; pamene CCZ ili ndi ubwino wochepetsera mtengo ndi kukonza bwino, ndipo ili pachitukuko chofulumira. Pankhani ya mtengo, poyerekeza ndi RCZ, yomwe imatenga pafupifupi maola 8 kuti ndodo imodzi isakokedwe, CCZ ikhoza kupititsa patsogolo luso la kupanga, kuchepetsa mtengo wamtengo wapatali ndi kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu pochotsa sitepe iyi. Zotulutsa zonse za ng'anjo imodzi ndizoposa 20% kuposa za RCZ. Mtengo wopangira ndi wochepera 10% kuposa RCZ. Pankhani yogwira ntchito, CCZ ikhoza kumaliza kujambula kwa ndodo za 8-10 za crystal silicon mkati mwa moyo wa crucible (maola 250), pamene RCZ ikhoza kumaliza pafupifupi 4, ndipo kupanga bwino kungawonjezeke ndi 100-150% . Pankhani ya khalidwe, CCZ imakhala ndi mphamvu yolimbana ndi yunifolomu, mpweya wochepa wa okosijeni, komanso kusungunula pang'onopang'ono kwa zonyansa zachitsulo, choncho ndi bwino kukonzekera n-mtundu umodzi wa crystal silicon wafers, womwe ulinso panthawi yachitukuko chofulumira. Pakalipano, makampani ena aku China adalengeza kuti ali ndi teknoloji ya CCZ, ndipo njira yazitsulo zopangira silicon-CCZ-n-mtundu wa monocrystalline zakhala zomveka bwino, ndipo wayamba kugwiritsa ntchito 100% granular silicon. . M'tsogolomu, CCZ idzalowa m'malo mwa RCZ, koma idzatenga njira inayake.
Kapangidwe ka zowotcha za silicon za monocrystalline zimagawidwa m'magawo anayi: kukoka, kudula, kudula, kuyeretsa ndi kusanja. Kuwonekera kwa njira yodula mawaya a diamondi kwachepetsa kwambiri kutayika kwa ma slicing. Njira yokoka kristalo yafotokozedwa pamwambapa. Ntchito yodula imaphatikizapo ntchito zochepetsera, squaring, ndi chamfering. Kudula ndikugwiritsa ntchito makina ocheka kudula silicon ya columnar kukhala zowotcha za silicon. Kuyeretsa ndi kusanja ndi njira zomaliza popanga zowotcha za silicon. Njira yodula mawaya a diamondi ili ndi maubwino odziwikiratu kuposa njira yachikhalidwe yodula waya, yomwe imawonetsedwa makamaka pakugwiritsa ntchito kwakanthawi kochepa komanso kutaya pang'ono. Liwiro la waya wa diamondi ndi kuwirikiza kasanu kuposa kudula kwachikhalidwe. Mwachitsanzo, kudula waya wawafa umodzi, kudula waya wamatope kumatenga pafupifupi maola 10, ndipo kudula waya wa diamondi kumangotenga maola awiri. Kutayika kwa mawaya a diamondi nakonso kumakhala kochepa, ndipo zosanjikiza zowonongeka chifukwa cha kudula waya wa diamondi ndizochepa kusiyana ndi kudula kwa waya wamatope, zomwe zimathandizira kudula zowonda za silicon. M'zaka zaposachedwa, pofuna kuchepetsa kutayika komanso kuwononga ndalama zopangira, makampani atembenukira ku njira zodula mawaya a diamondi, ndipo m'mimba mwake mipiringidzo yamabasi a diamondi ikucheperachepera. Mu 2021, makulidwe a waya wa diamondi busbar adzakhala 43-56 μm, ndipo m'mimba mwake wa diamondi waya busbar ntchito monocrystalline silicon wafers adzatsika kwambiri ndi kupitiriza kutsika. Akuti mu 2025 ndi 2030, ma diameter a diamondi waya mabasi omwe amagwiritsidwa ntchito podula ma silicon ophwanyika a monocrystalline adzakhala 36 μm ndi 33 μm, motsatana, ndipo ma diameter a mabasi a waya wa diamondi omwe amagwiritsidwa ntchito podula ma polycrystalline silicon wafers adzakhala 51 μm. ndi 51 μm, motero. Izi zili choncho chifukwa pali zolakwika zambiri ndi zonyansa muzitsulo za silicon za polycrystalline, ndipo mawaya opyapyala amatha kusweka. Chifukwa chake, makulidwe a waya wa diamondi busbar omwe amagwiritsidwa ntchito podula mkate wa polycrystalline silicon ndi wokulirapo kuposa wa zowotcha za monocrystalline silicon, ndipo gawo la msika wa zowotcha za polycrystalline silicon limachepa pang'onopang'ono, limagwiritsidwa ntchito ngati silicon ya polycrystalline Kuchepetsa kukula kwa diamondi. mawaya mabasi odulidwa ndi magawo achepa.
Pakali pano, zopyapyala za silicon zimagawidwa m'mitundu iwiri: zowotcha za silicon za polycrystalline ndi zopatulira za silicon monocrystalline. Zophika za silicon za Monocrystalline zili ndi ubwino wa moyo wautali wautumiki komanso kutembenuka kwapamwamba kwa photoelectric. Zophika za silicon za polycrystalline zimapangidwa ndi njere za kristalo zokhala ndi mawonekedwe osiyanasiyana a kristalo ndege, pomwe zowotcha za crystal silicon imodzi zimapangidwa ndi silicon ya polycrystalline ngati zida zopangira ndipo zimakhala ndi mawonekedwe ofanana ndi ndege ya kristalo. Maonekedwe, zowotcha za silicon za polycrystalline ndi zowotcha za crystal silicon imodzi ndi zabuluu-zakuda komanso zofiirira. Popeza awiriwa amadulidwa kuchokera ku ma polycrystalline silicon ingots ndi ndodo za silicon monocrystalline, motsatana, mawonekedwewo ndi a square ndi quasi-square. Moyo wautumiki wa zowotcha za silicon za polycrystalline ndi zowotcha za silicon za monocrystalline ndi pafupifupi zaka 20. Ngati njira yopangira ma CD ndi malo ogwiritsira ntchito ndi abwino, moyo wautumiki ukhoza kupitilira zaka 25. Nthawi zambiri, moyo wa zowotcha za silicon za monocrystalline ndizotalikirapo pang'ono kuposa zowotcha za polycrystalline silicon. Kuphatikiza apo, zowotcha za silicon za monocrystalline zilinso bwinoko pang'ono pakusintha kwazithunzi, komanso kusasunthika kwawo komanso zonyansa zachitsulo ndizocheperako kuposa zowotcha za polycrystalline silicon. Kuphatikizika kwa zinthu zosiyanasiyana kumapangitsa moyo wonyamulira ochepa wa makhiristo amodzi kuchulukitsa kambirimbiri kuposa ma crystalline silicon wafers. Potero kusonyeza ubwino kutembenuka dzuwa. Mu 2021, kutembenuka kwapamwamba kwambiri kwa zowotcha za silicon za polycrystalline zidzakhala pafupifupi 21%, ndipo zowotcha za silicon za monocrystalline zidzafika mpaka 24.2%.
Kuphatikiza pa moyo wautali komanso kusinthika kwakukulu, zowotcha za silicon za monocrystalline zilinso ndi mwayi wopatulira, zomwe zimathandiza kuchepetsa mtengo wa silicon ndi silicon wafer, koma tcherani khutu pakuwonjezeka kwa kugawanika. Kupatulira kwa zowotcha za silicon kumathandizira kuchepetsa ndalama zopangira, ndipo njira yochepetsera pano imatha kukwaniritsa zosowa za kupatulira, koma makulidwe a zowotcha za silicon kuyeneranso kukwaniritsa zosowa za ma cell otsika ndi kupanga zinthu. Nthawi zambiri, makulidwe a zowotcha za silicon zakhala zikucheperachepera zaka zaposachedwa, ndipo makulidwe a zowotcha za silicon za polycrystalline ndizokulirapo kuposa zowotcha za silicon za monocrystalline. Zophika za silicon za Monocrystalline zimagawidwanso kukhala zowotcha za silicon za n-mtundu ndi zowotcha za silicon za p, pomwe zowotcha za silicon za n-mtundu zimaphatikizanso kugwiritsa ntchito kwa TOPCon Battery ndi kugwiritsa ntchito batri la HJT. Mu 2021, makulidwe apakati a polycrystalline silicon wafers ndi 178μm, ndipo kusowa kwa kufunikira kwamtsogolo kudzawapangitsa kuti apitilize kuwonda. Choncho, zikunenedweratu kuti makulidwe adzachepa pang'ono kuchokera 2022 mpaka 2024, ndipo makulidwe adzakhala pafupifupi 170μm pambuyo 2025; pafupifupi makulidwe a p-mtundu wa monocrystalline silicon wafers ndi pafupifupi 170μm, ndipo akuyembekezeka kutsika mpaka 155μm ndi 140μm mu 2025 ndi 2030. Pakati pa n-mtundu wa monocrystalline silicon wafers, makulidwe a zowotcha za silicon zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito pa maselo a HJT ndi za 150μm, ndipo makulidwe apakati amtundu wa n-silicon wafers omwe amagwiritsidwa ntchito pama cell a TOPCon ndi 165μm. 135mm.
Kuphatikiza apo, kupanga zowotcha za polycrystalline silicon zimadya silicon yambiri kuposa zowotcha za silicon za monocrystalline, koma masitepe opangira ndi osavuta, zomwe zimabweretsa phindu lamtengo wapatali ku zowotcha za polycrystalline silicon. Polycrystalline silicon, monga zopangira wamba za polycrystalline silicon wafers ndi monocrystalline silicon wafers, zimakhala ndi magwiritsidwe osiyanasiyana popanga ziwirizi, zomwe zimachitika chifukwa cha kusiyana kwa chiyero ndi masitepe opangira awiriwo. Mu 2021, kugwiritsa ntchito silicon kwa polycrystalline ingot ndi 1.10 kg / kg. Zikuyembekezeka kuti ndalama zocheperako pakufufuza ndi chitukuko zidzabweretsa kusintha kochepa m'tsogolomu. Kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa silicon kwa ndodo yokoka ndi 1.066 kg / kg, ndipo pali malo ena oti muwongolere. Akuyembekezeka kukhala 1.05 kg/kg ndi 1.043 kg/kg mu 2025 ndi 2030 motsatana. Mu njira imodzi yokoka ya kristalo, kuchepetsa kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa silicon kwa ndodo yokoka kumatha kutheka pochepetsa kutayika kwa kuyeretsa ndi kuphwanya, kuwongolera mosamalitsa chilengedwe, kuchepetsa kuchuluka kwa zoyambira, kuwongolera kuwongolera bwino, ndikuwongolera magawo. ndi kukonza ukadaulo wa zida zowonongeka za silicon. Ngakhale kuti silicon ya polycrystalline silicon wafers ndi yokwera, mtengo wopangira ma polycrystalline silicon wafers ndi wokwera kwambiri chifukwa ma polycrystalline silicon ingots amapangidwa ndi moto wosungunuka wa ingot casting, pamene monocrystalline silicon ingots nthawi zambiri amapangidwa ndi kukula pang'onopang'ono mu Czochralski single crystal ng'anjo. zomwe zimadya mphamvu zambiri. Zochepa. Mu 2021, mtengo wapakati wopangira zowotcha za silicon za monocrystalline udzakhala pafupifupi 0.673 yuan/W, ndipo zowotcha za silicon za polycrystalline zidzakhala 0.66 yuan/W.
Pamene makulidwe a silicon wafer akucheperachepera ndipo m'mimba mwake mwa waya wa diamondi busbar ukuchepa, kutulutsa kwa ndodo za silicon / ingots za m'mimba mwake wofanana pa kilogalamu kudzawonjezeka, ndipo chiwerengero cha ndodo za crystal silicon zolemera zomwezo zidzakhala zazikulu kuposa izo. zitsulo zopangidwa ndi polycrystalline silicon. Pankhani ya mphamvu, mphamvu yomwe imagwiritsidwa ntchito ndi kachitsulo kakang'ono ka silicon iliyonse imasiyana malinga ndi mtundu ndi kukula kwake. Mu 2021, linanena bungwe p-mtundu 166mm kukula monocrystalline mipiringidzo lalikulu ndi pafupifupi 64 zidutswa pa kilogalamu, ndi linanena bungwe polycrystalline lalikulu ingots pafupifupi 59 zidutswa. Pakati pa p-mtundu wa single crystal silicon wafers, kutulutsa kwa 158.75mm kukula kwa ndodo za monocrystalline square ndi pafupifupi zidutswa 70 pa kilogalamu, kutulutsa kwa p-mtundu wa 182mm kukula kwa crystal square ndodo kumakhala pafupifupi zidutswa 53 pa kilogalamu, ndipo kutulutsa kwa p. -mtundu 210mm kukula limodzi kristalo ndodo pa kilogalamu pafupifupi 53 zidutswa. Kutulutsa kwa square bar ndi pafupifupi zidutswa 40. Kuchokera mu 2022 mpaka 2030, kupatulira kosalekeza kwa zowotcha za silicon mosakayikira kumabweretsa kuwonjezeka kwa ndodo za silicon / ingots za voliyumu yomweyo. The m'mimba mwake ang'onoang'ono wa diamondi waya busbar ndi sing'anga tinthu kukula kumathandizanso kuchepetsa kudula zomvetsa, potero kuonjezera chiwerengero cha yopyapyala opangidwa. kuchuluka. Akuti mu 2025 ndi 2030, linanena bungwe p-mtundu 166mm kukula monocrystalline lalikulu ndodo pafupifupi 71 ndi 78 zidutswa pa kilogalamu, ndi linanena bungwe polycrystalline lalikulu ingots ndi za 62 ndi 62 zidutswa, amene chifukwa cha msika otsika. gawo la zowotcha za silicon za polycrystalline Ndizovuta kuyambitsa kupita patsogolo kwaukadaulo. Pali kusiyana kwa mphamvu zamitundu yosiyanasiyana ndi makulidwe a zowotcha za silicon. Malinga ndi chidziwitso cha mphamvu yapakati pa 158.75mm silicon wafers ndi pafupifupi 5.8W/chidutswa, mphamvu yapakati ya 166mm size silicon wafers ndi pafupifupi 6.25W/chidutswa, ndipo mphamvu yapakati ya 182mm silicon wafers ndi pafupifupi 6.25W/chidutswa. . Mphamvu yapakati pa kukula kwa silicon wafer ndi pafupifupi 7.49W/chidutswa, ndipo mphamvu yapakati ya 210mm size silicon wafer ndi pafupifupi 10W/chidutswa.
M'zaka zaposachedwa, zopyapyala za silicon zakula pang'onopang'ono molunjika kukula kwakukulu, ndipo kukula kwakukulu kumathandizira kukulitsa mphamvu ya chipangizo chimodzi, potero kumachepetsa mtengo wa cell womwe si-silicon. Komabe, kusintha kwa kukula kwa zowotcha za silicon kumafunikanso kuganizira za kumtunda ndi kunsi kwa mitsinje zofananira ndi zoyimira, makamaka katundu ndi zovuta zamakono. Pakalipano, pali makampu awiri pamsika okhudzana ndi chitukuko chamtsogolo cha kukula kwa silicon wafer size, 182mm kukula ndi 210mm kukula. Lingaliro la 182mm limachokera ku lingaliro la kusakanikirana kwa makampani osunthika, pogwiritsa ntchito kulingalira kwa kuyika ndi kusuntha kwa maselo a photovoltaic, mphamvu ndi mphamvu ya ma modules, ndi mgwirizano pakati pa kumtunda ndi kumtunda; pamene 210mm makamaka kuchokera ku kawonedwe ka mtengo wopangira ndi mtengo wa dongosolo. Kutulutsa kwa 210mm silicon wafers kudakwera ndi kupitilira 15% munjira yojambulira ndodo yang'anjo imodzi, mtengo wopangira batire wapansi pamtsinje udachepetsedwa ndi 0.02 yuan/W, ndipo mtengo wonse womanga siteshoni yamagetsi udachepetsedwa ndi pafupifupi yuan 0.1 / W. M'zaka zingapo zotsatira, zikuyembekezeka kuti zowotcha za silicon zokhala ndi kukula pansi pa 166mm zidzachotsedwa pang'onopang'ono; mavuto ofananira kumtunda ndi kunsi kwa mtsinje wa 210mm silicon wafers adzathetsedwa pang'onopang'ono, ndipo mtengo udzakhala chinthu chofunikira kwambiri chomwe chikukhudza ndalama ndi kupanga mabizinesi. Chifukwa chake, gawo la msika la 210mm silicon wafers liwonjezeka. Kukwera kokhazikika; 182mm silicon wafer idzakhala kukula kwakukulu pamsika chifukwa cha zabwino zake popanga zophatikizika, koma ndi chitukuko chaukadaulo wa 210mm silicon wafer application, 182mm ipereka njira. Kuphatikiza apo, zimakhala zovuta kuti zophika zazikulu za silicon zizigwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri pamsika zaka zingapo zikubwerazi, chifukwa mtengo wantchito ndi chiwopsezo cha kuyika kwazitsulo zazikuluzikulu za silicon zidzakwera kwambiri, zomwe zimakhala zovuta kuzithetsa. kupulumutsa ndalama zopangira ndi mtengo wadongosolo. . Mu 2021, makulidwe a silicon wafer pamsika akuphatikizapo 156.75mm, 157mm, 158.75mm, 166mm, 182mm, 210mm, etc. Pakati pawo, kukula kwa 158.75mm ndi 166mm kunali 50% ya chiwerengero chonse, ndi kukula kwa 56mm. idatsika mpaka 5%, yomwe idzasinthidwa pang'onopang'ono m'tsogolomu; 166mm ndiye yankho lalikulu kwambiri lomwe lingathe kukwezedwa pamzere wopangira batire womwe ulipo, womwe udzakhala waukulu kwambiri zaka ziwiri zapitazi. Ponena za kukula kwa kusintha, zikuyembekezeka kuti gawo la msika lidzakhala lochepera 2% mu 2030; kukula kophatikizana kwa 182mm ndi 210mm kudzawerengera 45% mu 2021, ndipo gawo la msika lidzawonjezeka mofulumira m'tsogolomu. Zikuyembekezeka kuti gawo lonse la msika mu 2030 lidutsa 98%.
M'zaka zaposachedwa, gawo lamsika la silicon ya monocrystalline likupitilira kukula, ndipo latenga gawo lalikulu pamsika. Kuchokera mu 2012 mpaka 2021, chiwerengero cha silicon monocrystalline chinakwera kuchoka pa 20% kufika pa 93.3%, kuwonjezeka kwakukulu. Mu 2018, zowotcha za silicon pamsika zimakhala zowotcha za polycrystalline silicon, zomwe zimapitilira 50%. Chifukwa chachikulu ndi chakuti ubwino waumisiri wa silicon wafers wa monocrystalline sungathe kuphimba zovuta zamtengo wapatali. Kuyambira chaka cha 2019, popeza kusinthika kwazithunzi zamafuta a monocrystalline silicon wafers kwapitilira kwambiri zowotcha za silicon za polycrystalline, ndipo mtengo wopanga ma silicon ophatikizika a monocrystalline ukupitilirabe kutsika ndikupita patsogolo kwaukadaulo, gawo lamsika la zowotcha za silicon za monocrystalline likupitilira kukula. ambiri pamsika. mankhwala. Zikuyembekezeka kuti gawo la zowotcha za silicon za monocrystalline zidzafika pafupifupi 96% mu 2025, ndipo gawo la msika la zowotcha za silicon za monocrystalline zidzafika 97.7% mu 2030. (Gwero la lipoti: Future Think Tank)
1.3. Mabatire: Mabatire a PERC amalamulira msika, ndipo kupangidwa kwa mabatire amtundu wa n kumakankhira mtundu wazinthu.
Ulalo wapakatikati wa unyolo wamakampani a photovoltaic umaphatikizapo ma cell a photovoltaic ndi ma cell a photovoltaic cell. Kukonza zowotcha za silicon m'maselo ndiye gawo lofunikira kwambiri pakuzindikira kutembenuka kwa ma photoelectric. Zimatengera pafupifupi masitepe asanu ndi awiri kukonza selo wamba kuchokera ku silicon wafer. Choyamba, ikani chowotcha cha silicon mu hydrofluoric acid kuti mupange piramidi ngati suede pamwamba pake, potero kuchepetsa kuwunikira kwa dzuwa ndikuwonjezera kuyamwa kwa kuwala; yachiwiri ndi Phosphorus imafalikira pamwamba pa mbali imodzi ya silicon yachitsulo kuti ipange mgwirizano wa PN, ndipo khalidwe lake limakhudza mwachindunji mphamvu ya selo; chachitatu ndikuchotsa mphambano ya PN yomwe idapangidwa pambali ya chotupa cha silicon panthawi ya kufalikira kuti tipewe kuzungulira kwa cell; Filimu ya silicon nitride imakutidwa pambali yomwe PN imapangidwira kuti ichepetse kuwunikira komanso nthawi yomweyo kuwonjezera mphamvu; chachisanu ndi kusindikiza maelekitirodi zitsulo kutsogolo ndi kumbuyo kwa pakachitsulo chopingasa kusonkhanitsa ochepa zonyamulira kwaiye ndi photovoltaics; Dera losindikizidwa mu gawo losindikizira limasinthidwa ndikupangidwa, ndipo limaphatikizidwa ndi chofufumitsa cha silicon, ndiko kuti, selo; potsiriza, maselo ndi efficiencies osiyana ndi m'gulu.
Maselo a crystalline silicon nthawi zambiri amapangidwa ndi zowotcha za silicon ngati magawo, ndipo amatha kugawidwa m'maselo amtundu wa p ndi maselo amtundu wa n molingana ndi mtundu wa zowotcha za silicon. Pakati pawo, maselo amtundu wa n ali ndi mphamvu zosinthika kwambiri ndipo pang'onopang'ono akusintha maselo amtundu wa p m'zaka zaposachedwa. Zophika za silicon zamtundu wa P zimapangidwa ndi doping silicon yokhala ndi boron, ndipo zowotcha zamtundu wa n-silicon zimapangidwa ndi phosphorous. Chifukwa chake, kuchuluka kwa boron mumtundu wa n-silicon wafer ndikocheperako, motero kumalepheretsa kulumikizana kwa ma complex a boron-oxygen, kupititsa patsogolo moyo wonyamula ochepa wa zinthu za silicon, ndipo nthawi yomweyo, palibe kuchepetsedwa kwa chithunzi. mu batire. Kuphatikiza apo, zonyamulira zazing'ono za n-mtundu ndi mabowo, zonyamulira zazing'ono za p-mtundu ndi ma elekitironi, ndipo misampha yodutsa gawo la maatomu ambiri osadetsedwa pamabowo ndi yaying'ono kuposa ma electron. Choncho, moyo wonyamula anthu ochepa amtundu wa n-cell ndi wapamwamba ndipo chiwerengero cha kutembenuka kwa photoelectric ndichokwera. Malingana ndi deta ya labotale, malire apamwamba a kutembenuka kwa maselo a p-mtundu ndi 24.5%, ndipo kusinthika kwa maselo amtundu wa n kumafika ku 28.7%, kotero kuti maselo amtundu wa n amaimira njira yachitukuko cha teknoloji yamtsogolo. Mu 2021, ma cell amtundu wa n (makamaka kuphatikiza ma cell a heterojunction ndi TOPCon cell) ali ndi mtengo wokwera kwambiri, ndipo kuchuluka kwa kupanga kwakukulu kumakhalabe kochepa. Gawo lomwe lilipo pamsika lili pafupifupi 3%, zomwe ndizofanana ndi zomwe zili mu 2020.
Mu 2021, kusinthika kwa maselo amtundu wa n kudzakhala bwino kwambiri, ndipo zikuyembekezeredwa kuti padzakhala malo ambiri opititsa patsogolo luso lamakono m'zaka zisanu zikubwerazi. Mu 2021, kupanga kwakukulu kwa maselo a p-type monocrystalline kudzagwiritsa ntchito teknoloji ya PERC, ndipo kutembenuka kwapakati kudzafika 23.1%, kuwonjezeka kwa 0.3 peresenti poyerekeza ndi 2020; kutembenuka mtima kwa polycrystalline wakuda silikoni maselo ntchito luso PERC kudzafika 21.0%, poyerekeza ndi 2020. Kuwonjezeka kwa pachaka kwa 0.2 peresenti; ochiritsira wamba polycrystalline wakuda silicon cell kuwongolera bwino si kolimba, kutembenuka kwachangu mu 2021 kudzakhala pafupifupi 19.5%, 0.1 peresenti yokhayo yokwera, ndipo tsogolo labwino danga ndi lochepa; kutembenuka kwapakati pa maselo a ingot monocrystalline PERC ndi 22.4%, omwe ndi 0.7 peresenti yotsika kuposa maselo a monocrystalline PERC; kusinthika kwapakati kwa maselo a n-mtundu wa TOPCon kumafika 24%, ndipo kusinthika kwapakati kwa maselo a heterojunction kumafika 24.2%, zonsezi zakhala zikuyenda bwino kwambiri poyerekeza ndi 2020, ndipo kusinthika kwapakati kwa maselo a IBC kufika pa 24.2%. Ndi chitukuko chaukadaulo m'tsogolomu, matekinoloje a batri monga TBC ndi HBC atha kupitiliza kupita patsogolo. M'tsogolomu, ndi kuchepetsa ndalama zopangira komanso kupititsa patsogolo zokolola, mabatire amtundu wa n adzakhala amodzi mwa njira zazikuluzikulu za chitukuko cha batri.
Kuchokera pamalingaliro a njira yaukadaulo ya batri, kusinthika kosinthika kwaukadaulo wa batri makamaka kwadutsa BSF, PERC, TOPCon potengera kusintha kwa PERC, ndi HJT, ukadaulo watsopano womwe umasokoneza PERC; TOPCon ikhoza kuphatikizidwanso ndi IBC kupanga TBC, ndipo HJT ikhoza kuphatikizidwanso ndi IBC kukhala HBC. Maselo amtundu wa P-mtundu wa monocrystalline amagwiritsa ntchito ukadaulo wa PERC, maselo amtundu wa polycrystalline amaphatikiza maselo amtundu wa polycrystalline wakuda wa silicon ndi maselo a ingot monocrystalline, omalizawa amatanthauza kuwonjezeredwa kwa makristasi a mbewu ya monocrystalline pamaziko a njira yodziwika bwino ya polycrystalline ingot, kukhazikika kolunjika Pambuyo pake, square silicon ingot imapangidwa, ndipo chowotcha cha silicon chosakanikirana ndi kristalo umodzi ndi polycrystalline chimapangidwa kudzera munjira zingapo zopangira. Chifukwa imagwiritsa ntchito njira yokonzekera polycrystalline, imaphatikizidwa m'gulu la p-mtundu wa polycrystalline maselo. Maselo amtundu wa n makamaka amaphatikizapo TOPCon monocrystalline maselo, maselo a HJT monocrystalline ndi maselo a IBC monocrystalline. Mu 2021, mizere yatsopano yopanga misa idzakhalabe yoyendetsedwa ndi ma cell a PERC, ndipo gawo lamsika la maselo a PERC lidzakweranso mpaka 91.2%. Pomwe kufunikira kwazinthu zama projekiti akunja ndi apanyumba kwangoyang'ana kwambiri pazinthu zogwira ntchito kwambiri, gawo lamsika la mabatire a BSF lidzatsika kuchoka pa 8.8% mpaka 5% mu 2021.
1.4. Ma modules: Mtengo wa maselo amawerengera gawo lalikulu, ndipo mphamvu ya ma modules imadalira maselo
Masitepe opangira ma modules a photovoltaic makamaka amaphatikizapo kugwirizanitsa kwa selo ndi lamination, ndipo maselo amawerengera gawo lalikulu la mtengo wonse wa module. Popeza mphamvu yamakono ndi magetsi a selo imodzi ndi yaying'ono kwambiri, maselo amafunika kulumikizidwa kudzera muzitsulo za basi. Apa, iwo olumikizidwa mu mndandanda kuonjezera voteji, ndiyeno kugwirizana mu kufanana kupeza mkulu panopa, ndiyeno galasi photovoltaic, EVA kapena POE, batire Mapepala, EVA kapena POE, pepala kumbuyo amasindikizidwa ndi kutentha mbamuikha mu dongosolo linalake. , ndipo potsiriza amatetezedwa ndi aluminiyamu chimango ndi silikoni kusindikiza m'mphepete. Kuchokera pamalingaliro a mtengo wazinthu zopangira zinthu, mtengo wazinthu ndi 75%, womwe umakhala pachiwonetsero chachikulu, zotsatiridwa ndi mtengo wopangira, mtengo wantchito ndi mtengo wantchito. Mtengo wazinthu umatsogozedwa ndi mtengo wa maselo. Malinga ndi zilengezo zamakampani ambiri, maselo amawerengera pafupifupi 2/3 ya mtengo wonse wa ma module a photovoltaic.
Ma module a Photovoltaic nthawi zambiri amagawidwa motengera mtundu wa cell, kukula, ndi kuchuluka kwake. Pali kusiyana mu mphamvu ya ma modules osiyanasiyana, koma onse ali pa siteji yowonjezereka. Mphamvu ndi chizindikiro chofunikira cha ma modules a photovoltaic, omwe akuyimira mphamvu ya module yosinthira mphamvu ya dzuwa kukhala magetsi. Zitha kuwoneka kuchokera ku ziwerengero zamphamvu za mitundu yosiyanasiyana ya ma photovoltaic modules kuti pamene kukula ndi chiwerengero cha maselo mu gawoli ndi ofanana, mphamvu ya module ndi n-mtundu umodzi wa kristalo> p-mtundu umodzi wa crystal> polycrystalline; Kukula kwakukulu ndi kuchuluka kwake, mphamvu yayikulu ya module; kwa TOPCon single crystal modules ndi heterojunction modules of the same specification, mphamvu yotsirizayi ndi yaikulu kuposa yoyamba. Malinga ndi kulosera kwa CPIA, mphamvu ya module idzawonjezeka ndi 5-10W pachaka m'zaka zingapo zikubwerazi. Kuphatikiza apo, ma phukusi a module adzabweretsa kutayika kwamphamvu kwina, makamaka kuphatikiza kutayika kwa kuwala ndi kutayika kwamagetsi. Zakale zimayamba chifukwa cha kusokonezeka kwa ma transmittance ndi kuwala kwa zinthu zonyamula katundu monga galasi la photovoltaic ndi EVA, ndipo chotsirizirachi makamaka chimatanthawuza kugwiritsa ntchito ma cell a dzuwa motsatizana. Kuwonongeka kwa dera komwe kumachitika chifukwa cha kukana kwa riboni yowotcherera ndi bar ya basi yokha, komanso kutayika kwapanthawi kosagwirizana komwe kumachitika chifukwa cha kulumikizana kwa maselo, kutayika kwathunthu kwa mphamvu ziwirizi kumakhala pafupifupi 8%.
1.5. Kuthekera kwa Photovoltaic: Ndondomeko zamayiko osiyanasiyana zimayendetsedwa mwachiwonekere, ndipo pali danga lalikulu la mphamvu zatsopano zokhazikitsidwa mtsogolo.
Dziko lapansi lafika pa mgwirizano wokhudza kutulutsa ziro zero pansi pa cholinga choteteza chilengedwe, ndipo zachuma zamapulojekiti a superimposed photovoltaic zayamba kutuluka pang'onopang'ono. Maiko akuyang'ana mwachidwi chitukuko cha mphamvu zowonjezera mphamvu zamagetsi. M’zaka zaposachedwapa, maiko padziko lonse lapansi alonjeza kuti achepetsa kutulutsa mpweya wa carbon. Ambiri mwa otulutsa mpweya wowonjezera kutentha apanga mipherezero yofananira ndi mphamvu zongowonjezwdwa, ndipo mphamvu yoyika ya mphamvu zongowonjezedwanso ndi yayikulu. Malingana ndi cholinga cha 1.5 ℃ kutentha kwa kutentha, IRENA ikuwonetseratu kuti mphamvu zowonjezera mphamvu zowonjezera padziko lonse zidzafika ku 10.8TW mu 2030. Kuphatikiza apo, malinga ndi deta ya WOODMac, mtengo wamagetsi (LCOE) wa magetsi a dzuwa ku China, India, United States ndi maiko ena ndi otsika kale kuposa mphamvu zotsika mtengo zamafuta, ndipo zidzatsikanso m'tsogolomu. Kukwezeleza yogwira ndondomeko m'mayiko osiyanasiyana ndi chuma photovoltaic mphamvu kupanga kwachititsa kuti azichulukirachulukira anaika mphamvu photovoltaics mu dziko ndi China m'zaka zaposachedwapa. Kuchokera ku 2012 mpaka 2021, mphamvu zowonjezeredwa za photovoltaics padziko lonse lapansi zidzawonjezeka kuchoka pa 104.3GW kufika ku 849.5GW, ndipo mphamvu zowonjezera za photovoltaics ku China zidzawonjezeka kuchoka pa 6.7GW kufika ku 307GW, kuwonjezeka kwa nthawi 44. Kuphatikiza apo, mphamvu yaku China yomwe yangoyikira kumene imakhala yopitilira 20% ya mphamvu zonse zomwe zayikidwa padziko lapansi. Mu 2021, mphamvu yaku China yomwe idakhazikitsidwa kumene ndi 53GW, yomwe imawerengera pafupifupi 40% ya mphamvu zomwe zidakhazikitsidwa kumene padziko lapansi. Izi makamaka chifukwa cha kugawidwa kochuluka ndi kofanana kwa mphamvu zamagetsi zowunikira ku China, kumtunda kwamtunda ndi kumunsi kwa mtsinje, komanso kuthandizira kwakukulu kwa ndondomeko za dziko. Panthawi imeneyi, China yakhala ndi gawo lalikulu pakupanga magetsi a photovoltaic, ndipo mphamvu yowonjezera yowonjezera imakhala yosachepera 6.5%. wasintha mpaka +36.14% sabata.
Kutengera kuwunika komwe kwachitika pamwambapa, CPIA yapereka zoneneratu za makhazikitsidwe atsopano a photovoltaic kuyambira 2022 mpaka 2030 padziko lonse lapansi. Akuyerekeza kuti pansi pazabwino zonse komanso kusamala, mphamvu yomwe yakhazikitsidwa kumene padziko lonse lapansi mu 2030 idzakhala 366 ndi 315GW motsatana, ndipo mphamvu yomwe idakhazikitsidwa kumene ku China idzakhala 128. , 105GW. Pansipa tidzaneneratu za kufunikira kwa polysilicon kutengera kukula kwa mphamvu zomwe zakhazikitsidwa kumene chaka chilichonse.
1.6. Fufuzani zoneneratu za polysilicon pakugwiritsa ntchito photovoltaic
Kuchokera mu 2022 mpaka 2030, kutengera kulosera kwa CPIA pakukhazikitsa kwatsopano kwa PV padziko lonse lapansi pansi pazabwino zonse komanso zosamala, kufunikira kwa polysilicon pamapulogalamu a PV kunganenedweratu. Maselo ndi sitepe yofunika kwambiri kuti azindikire kutembenuka kwa ma photoelectric, ndipo zowotcha za silicon ndizomwe zimakhala zopangira ma cell komanso kutsika kwaposachedwa kwa polysilicon, chifukwa chake ndi gawo lofunikira pakulosera kofunikira kwa polysilicon. Chiwerengero cha zidutswa pa kilogalamu cha ndodo za silicon ndi ingots zitha kuwerengedwa kuchokera ku chiwerengero cha zidutswa pa kilogalamu ndi gawo la msika la ndodo za silicon ndi ingots. Kenako, molingana ndi mphamvu ndi gawo la msika la zowotcha za silicon zamitundu yosiyanasiyana, mphamvu zolemetsa za zowotcha za silicon zitha kupezeka, ndiyeno kuchuluka kofunikira kwa zowotcha za silicon zitha kuyerekezedwa molingana ndi mphamvu yomwe yangoyikidwa kumene ya photovoltaic. Chotsatira, kulemera kwa ndodo za silicon ndi ingots zomwe zimafunikira zitha kupezedwa molingana ndi kuchuluka kwa ubale pakati pa kuchuluka kwa zowotcha za silicon ndi kuchuluka kwa ndodo za silicon ndi ma ingots a silicon pa kilogalamu. Kuphatikizanso ndi kulemedwa kwa silicon kwa ndodo za silicon / silicon ingots, kufunikira kwa polysilicon yamphamvu yomwe yakhazikitsidwa kumene imatha kupezeka. Malinga ndi zotsatira zowonetseratu, kufunikira kwapadziko lonse kwa polysilicon kwa makhazikitsidwe atsopano a photovoltaic m'zaka zisanu zapitazi kudzapitirira kukwera, kukwera mu 2027, ndikutsika pang'ono m'zaka zitatu zikubwerazi. Akuti mu 2025, mu 2025, padziko lonse lapansi kufunika kwa polysilicon pamakhazikitsidwe a photovoltaic kudzakhala matani 1,108,900 ndi matani 907,800 motsatana, ndipo kufunikira kwapadziko lonse kwa polysilicon pakugwiritsa ntchito ma photovoltaic mu 2030 kudzakhala matani 1,042,100 osakhazikika. . , matani 896,900. Malinga ndi Chinakuchuluka kwa mphamvu yapadziko lonse lapansi yoyika photovoltaic,Kufuna kwa China kwa polysilicon pakugwiritsa ntchito photovoltaic mu 2025akuyembekezeka kukhala matani 369,600 ndi matani 302,600 motsatana pansi pazabwino komanso zosamala, ndi matani 739,300 ndi matani 605,200 kutsidya kwa nyanja motsatana.
2, Kufuna kwa Semiconductor kumapeto: Sikelo ndi yaying'ono kwambiri kuposa kufunikira kwa gawo la photovoltaic, ndipo kukula kwamtsogolo kungayembekezere
Kuphatikiza pa kupanga ma cell a photovoltaic, polysilicon ingagwiritsidwenso ntchito ngati zida zopangira tchipisi ndipo imagwiritsidwa ntchito m'munda wa semiconductor, womwe ungagawidwe m'magalimoto opangira magalimoto, zamagetsi zamagetsi zamafakitale, mauthenga apakompyuta, zida zapanyumba ndi zina. Njira yochokera ku polysilicon kupita ku chip imagawidwa m'magawo atatu. Choyamba, polysilicon imakokedwa muzitsulo za silicon za monocrystalline, kenako ndikudula muzitsulo zopyapyala za silicon. Zophika za silicon zimapangidwa kudzera m'magulu angapo akupera, kupukuta ndi kupukuta. , zomwe ndi zoyambira za fakitale ya semiconductor. Pomaliza, chowotcha cha silicon chimadulidwa ndikujambulidwa ndi laser m'magawo osiyanasiyana kuti apange zida za chip ndi mawonekedwe ena. Zophika za silicon wafer makamaka zimaphatikizapo zowotcha zopukutidwa, zowotcha za epitaxial ndi zowotcha za SOI. Chophika chopukutidwa ndi chinthu chopangira chip chokhala ndi kutsetsereka kwakukulu komwe kumapezeka popukuta chophatikizira cha silicon kuti chichotse chosanjikiza pamwamba, chomwe chitha kugwiritsidwa ntchito mwachindunji kupanga tchipisi, zowotcha za epitaxial ndi zowotcha za SOI za silicon. Epitaxial wafers amapezedwa ndi kukula kwa epitaxial kwa zopatulira zopukutidwa, pomwe zowotcha za silicon za SOI zimapangidwa ndi kulumikiza kapena kuyika ayoni pamagawo opaka opukutidwa, ndipo kukonzekera kumakhala kovuta.
Kupyolera mu kufunikira kwa polysilicon kumbali ya semiconductor mu 2021, kuphatikizidwa ndi zomwe bungweli linanena za kukula kwa makampani opangira semiconductor m'zaka zingapo zikubwerazi, kufunikira kwa polysilicon m'munda wa semiconductor kuyambira 2022 mpaka 2025 kungayerekezedwe. Mu 2021, kupanga kwapadziko lonse lapansi kwa polysilicon yapadziko lonse lapansi kudzakhala pafupifupi 6% ya polysilicon yonse yopanga, ndipo polysilicon yamtundu wa solar ndi silikoni ya granular idzawerengera pafupifupi 94%. Polysilicon yambiri yamagetsi yamagetsi imagwiritsidwa ntchito m'munda wa semiconductor, ndipo polysilicon ina imagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri pamakampani opanga ma photovoltaic. . Chifukwa chake, titha kuganiziridwa kuti kuchuluka kwa polysilicon yomwe imagwiritsidwa ntchito pamakampani opanga ma semiconductor mu 2021 ndi pafupifupi matani 37,000. Kuphatikiza apo, malinga ndi kukula kwa msika wa semiconductor wamtsogolo wonenedweratu ndi FortuneBusiness Insights, kufunikira kwa polysilicon yogwiritsira ntchito semiconductor kudzakwera pamlingo wapachaka wa 8.6% kuyambira 2022 mpaka 2025. Akuti mu 2025, kufunika kwa polysilicon m'munda wa semiconductor adzakhala mozungulira matani 51,500. (Report source: Future Think Tank)
3, Polysilicon kulowetsa ndi kutumiza kunja: zogulitsa kunja zimaposa zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja, ndi Germany ndi Malaysia zomwe zimakhala ndi gawo lalikulu
Mu 2021, pafupifupi 18.63% yazofunikira za polysilicon yaku China zidzachokera kunja, ndipo kuchuluka kwa zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja kumaposa kuchuluka kwa zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja. Kuchokera ku 2017 mpaka 2021, kuitanitsa ndi kutumiza kunja kwa polysilicon kumayang'aniridwa ndi zogulitsa kunja, zomwe zingakhale chifukwa cha kufunikira kwakukulu kwa mafakitale a photovoltaic omwe akukula mofulumira m'zaka zaposachedwa, ndipo kufunikira kwake kwa polysilicon kumakhudza zoposa 94% ya kufunika kwathunthu; Kuphatikiza apo, kampaniyo sinadziwebe ukadaulo wopanga wa polysilicon yapamwamba kwambiri yamagetsi, kotero ma polysilicon ena ofunikira ndi makampani ophatikizika amafunikirabe kudalira zogulitsa kunja. Malinga ndi zomwe nthambi ya Silicon Industry Branch inanena, kuchuluka kwa zinthu zolowa kunja kudapitilirabe kutsika mu 2019 ndi 2020. Chifukwa chachikulu chakutsika kwa zinthu zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja kwa polysilicon mu 2019 chinali kuwonjezeka kwakukulu kwa mphamvu zopanga, zomwe zidakwera kuchoka pa matani 388,000 mu 2018 mpaka matani 452,000. mu 2019. Panthawi imodzimodziyo, OCI, REC, HANWHA Makampani ena akunja, monga makampani ena akunja, achoka ku makampani a polysilicon chifukwa cha kutayika, kotero kudalira kudalira kwa polysilicon ndi kochepa kwambiri; ngakhale kuti mphamvu zopanga sizinachuluke mu 2020, zotsatira za mliriwu zachititsa kuti kuchedwa kwa ntchito yomanga photovoltaic, ndipo chiwerengero cha malamulo a polysilicon chatsika panthawi yomweyi. Mu 2021, msika waku China wa photovoltaic udzakula mwachangu, ndipo kugwiritsiridwa ntchito kwa polysilicon kudzafika matani 613,000, ndikupangitsa kuti voliyumu yolowera ibwerenso. M'zaka zisanu zapitazi, voliyumu ya ku China ya polysilicon yolowa kunja yakhala pakati pa matani 90,000 ndi 140,000, pomwe matani 103,800 mu 2021.
Zogulitsa za polysilicon za ku China makamaka zimachokera ku Germany, Malaysia, Japan ndi Taiwan, China, ndipo zonse zomwe zimatumizidwa kuchokera ku mayiko anayiwa zidzafika 90.51% mu 2021. Pafupifupi 45% ya polysilicon yochokera ku China imachokera ku Germany, 26% kuchokera ku Malaysia, 13.5% kuchokera ku Japan, ndi 6% kuchokera ku Taiwan. Germany ali ndi dziko polysilicon chimphona WACKER, amene ndi gwero lalikulu la polysilicon kutsidya kwa nyanja, mlandu 12.7% ya mphamvu okwana kupanga padziko lonse mu 2021; Dziko la Malaysia lili ndi mizere yambiri yopangira ma polysilicon ochokera ku Kampani ya OCI yaku South Korea, yomwe imachokera ku mzere woyamba wopanga ku Malaysia wa TOKUYAMA, kampani yaku Japan yogulidwa ndi OCI. Pali mafakitale ndi mafakitale ena omwe OCI idasamutsa kuchokera ku South Korea kupita ku Malaysia. Chifukwa cha kusamukako ndikuti Malaysia imapereka malo a fakitale yaulere ndipo mtengo wamagetsi ndi gawo limodzi mwa magawo atatu otsika kuposa a South Korea; Japan ndi Taiwan, China ali ndi TOKUYAMA, GET ndi makampani ena, omwe amakhala ndi gawo lalikulu la kupanga polysilicon. malo. Mu 2021, kutulutsa kwa polysilicon kudzakhala matani 492,000, omwe angoyika kumene mphamvu ya photovoltaic ndi kufunikira kwa chip kudzakhala matani 206,400 ndi matani 1,500 motsatana, ndipo matani 284,100 otsala azigwiritsidwa ntchito makamaka pokonza ndikutumiza kunja kwa nyanja. M'malumikizidwe akumunsi a polysilicon, zowotcha za silicon, ma cell ndi ma module amatumizidwa kunja, komwe kutumizira kunja kwa ma module kumakhala kodziwika kwambiri. Mu 2021, ma silicon wafers 4.64 biliyoni ndi ma cell 3.2 biliyoni a photovoltaic anali atapangidwa.kutumizidwa kunjakuchokera ku China, zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja kwa 22.6GW ndi 10.3GW motsatira, ndipo kutumiza kunja kwa ma modules a photovoltaic ndi 98.5GW, ndi zochepa kwambiri zochokera kunja. Pankhani ya mtengo wamtengo wapatali, kutumiza kunja kwa module mu 2021 kudzafika US $ 24.61 biliyoni, kuwerengera 86%, kutsatiridwa ndi zowotcha za silicon ndi mabatire. Mu 2021, zotulutsa zapadziko lonse lapansi za silicon wafers, cell photovoltaic, ndi photovoltaic modules zidzafika 97.3%, 85.1%, ndi 82.3%, motsatana. Zikuyembekezeka kuti msika wapadziko lonse lapansi wa photovoltaic ukupitilizabe ku China mkati mwa zaka zitatu zikubwerazi, ndipo kuchuluka kwa zotulutsa ndi kutumiza kunja kwa ulalo uliwonse kudzakhala kwakukulu. Chifukwa chake, akuti kuyambira 2022 mpaka 2025, kuchuluka kwa polysilicon komwe kumagwiritsidwa ntchito pokonza ndi kupanga zinthu zakumunsi ndikutumizidwa kunja kudzawonjezeka pang'onopang'ono. Zimayerekezedwa ndikuchotsa zopanga zakunja kuchokera ku zofuna zakunja za polysilicon. Mu 2025, polysilicon yopangidwa popanga zinthu zapansi panthaka ikuyembekezeka kutumiza matani 583,000 kupita kumayiko akunja kuchokera ku China.
4, Chidule ndi Outlook
Zofuna zapadziko lonse lapansi za polysilicon zimakhazikika kwambiri m'munda wa photovoltaic, ndipo kufunikira kwa gawo la semiconductor si dongosolo la kukula. Kufunika kwa polysilicon kumayendetsedwa ndi makhazikitsidwe a photovoltaic, ndipo pang'onopang'ono amatumizidwa ku polysilicon kudzera mu ulalo wa photovoltaic modules-cell-wafer, kupanga kufunika kwake. M'tsogolomu, ndi kukula kwa mphamvu yapadziko lonse lapansi ya photovoltaic, kufunikira kwa polysilicon nthawi zambiri kumakhala ndi chiyembekezo. Mwachiyembekezo, China ndi kutsidya kwa nyanja makhazikitsidwe a PV omwe angowonjezera kumene kupangitsa kuti polysilicon mu 2025 ikhale 36.96GW ndi 73.93GW motsatana, ndipo kufunikira kwanthawi yosamala kudzafikanso 30.24GW ndi 60.49GW motsatana. Mu 2021, kupezeka ndi kufunikira kwa polysilicon padziko lonse lapansi kudzakhala kolimba, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti pakhale mitengo yayikulu yapadziko lonse lapansi ya polysilicon. Izi zitha kupitilira mpaka 2022, ndikutembenukira pang'onopang'ono mpaka 2023. Mu theka lachiwiri la 2020, zotsatira za mliriwu zidayamba kufooketsa, ndipo kukulitsa kupanga kwapansi kwa mitsinje kunayambitsa kufunika kwa polysilicon, ndipo makampani ena otsogola adakonzekera. kukulitsa kupanga. Komabe, kufalikira kwazaka zopitilira chaka chimodzi ndi theka kudapangitsa kuti mphamvu zopanga zitulutsidwe kumapeto kwa 2021 ndi 2022, zomwe zidapangitsa kuwonjezeka kwa 4.24% mu 2021. Pali kusiyana kwa matani 10,000, kotero mitengo yakwera. mwamphamvu. Zimanenedweratu kuti mu 2022, pansi pa chiyembekezo komanso kusamala kwa mphamvu ya photovoltaic yoikidwa, kusiyana kwa magetsi ndi kufunikira kudzakhala -156,500 matani ndi matani 2,400 motsatira, ndipo chakudya chonse chidzakhalabe chochepa. Mu 2023 ndi kupitirira apo, mapulojekiti atsopano omwe adayamba kumangidwa kumapeto kwa 2021 komanso koyambirira kwa 2022 ayamba kupanga ndikukwaniritsa kuchuluka kwa kupanga. Kugula ndi kufunidwa kumatsika pang'onopang'ono, ndipo mitengo ingakhale pansi pamavuto otsika. Potsatira, chidwi chiyenera kuperekedwa ku zotsatira za nkhondo ya Chirasha-Chiyukireniya pa ndondomeko ya mphamvu yapadziko lonse, yomwe ingasinthe ndondomeko yapadziko lonse ya mphamvu yatsopano ya photovoltaic, yomwe idzakhudza kufunika kwa polysilicon.
(Nkhaniyi ndi yongotengera makasitomala a UrbanMines ndipo siyikuyimira upangiri uliwonse wazachuma)