Puna: Wall Street News Official
ʻO ke kumukūʻai oAlumina(Aluminum Oxide)ua hiki i kona pae kiʻekiʻe loa i kēia mau makahiki ʻelua, e alakaʻi ana i ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka hana ʻana e ka ʻoihana alumina Kina. ʻO kēia piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai alumina honua ua hoʻoikaika i nā mea hana Kina e hoʻonui ikaika i kā lākou hana hana a hopu i ka manawa mākeke.
Wahi a ka ʻikepili hou mai SMM International, ma Iune 13th2024, ua piʻi nā kumukūʻai alumina ma Western Australia i $ 510 no ka ton, e hōʻailona ana i kahi kiʻekiʻe hou mai Malaki 2022. Ua ʻoi aku ka piʻi ʻana o ka makahiki ma mua o 40% ma muli o ka hoʻolako ʻana i nā pilikia ma mua o kēia makahiki.
ʻO kēia piʻi kumu kūʻai nui i hoʻoulu i ka hoihoi no ka hana ʻana i loko o ka ʻoihana alumina (Al2O3) Kina. Ua hōʻike ʻo Monte Zhang, ka luna hoʻomalu o AZ Global Consulting, ua hoʻonohonoho ʻia nā papahana hou no ka hana ʻana ma Shandong, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia a me Guangxi i ka hapa lua o kēia makahiki. Eia kekahi, ke hoʻonui ikaika nei ʻo Indonesia a me India i kā lākou hana hana a hiki ke kū i nā pilikia oversupply i nā mahina 18 e hiki mai ana.
I ka makahiki i hala aku nei, ua hoʻonui nui ʻia ka hoʻolako ʻana i nā kumukūʻai ma Kina a me Australia. No ka laʻana, ua hoʻolaha ʻo Alcoa Corp i ka pani ʻana o kāna Kwinana alumina refinery me ka mana makahiki o 2.2 miliona tons i Ianuali. Ma Mei, ua hoʻolaha ʻo Rio Tinto i ka force majeure ma luna o nā ukana mai kāna mea hoʻoheheʻe alumina ma Queensland ma muli o ka nele o ke kinoea maoli.
ʻAʻole wale kēia mau hanana i kumu i nā kumukūʻai alumina (alumine) ma London Metal Exchange (LME) e hiki i kahi kiʻekiʻe o 23 mau mahina akā ua hoʻonui pū ʻia nā kumukūʻai hana no ka alumini ma Kina.
Eia nō naʻe, i ka hoʻi ʻana o ka lako, manaʻo ʻia e maʻalahi ke kūlana paʻa o ka mākeke. Ke manaʻo nei ʻo Colin Hamilton, ka luna o ka noiʻi waiwai ma BMO Capital Markets, e emi ana nā kumukūʻai alumina a kokoke i nā kumukūʻai hana, e hāʻule ana i loko o kahi ʻoi aku ma mua o $300 no ke tona. Ua ʻae ʻo Ross Strachan, kahi mea loiloi ma CRU Group, i kēia ʻike a haʻi ʻia i loko o ka leka uila inā ʻaʻole he mau pilikia hou aʻe i ka hoʻolako ʻana, e pau ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai mua. Manaʻo ʻo ia e emi nui nā kumukūʻai ma hope o kēia makahiki ke hoʻomaka hou ka hana alumina.
Eia nō naʻe, hāʻawi ʻo Morgan Stanley analyst ʻo Amy Gower i kahi hiʻohiʻona makaʻala ma ke kuhikuhi ʻana ua hōʻike ʻo Kina i kona manaʻo e hoʻomalu pono i ka mana hoʻomaʻemaʻe alumina hou e hiki ke hoʻopili i ke koena o ka lako mākeke a me ke koi. I loko o kāna hōʻike, ua hoʻoikaika ʻo Gower: "I ka wā lōʻihi, hiki ke kaupalena ʻia ka ulu ʻana o ka hana alumina. Inā hoʻopau ʻo Kina i ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka hiki ke hana, aia paha ka hemahema o ka mākeke alumina.