1, Ke koi hope Photovoltaic: He ikaika ke koi no ka hiki ke hoʻokomo i ka photovoltaic, a ua hoʻohuli ʻia ke koi no ka polysilicon ma muli o ka wānana hiki ke kau ʻia.
1.1. Ka hoʻohana ʻana o Polysilicon: ʻO ka honuaKe piʻi mau nei ka nui o ka hoʻohana ʻana, no ka hana ʻana i ka mana photovoltaic
ʻO nā makahiki he ʻumi i hala, ka honuapolysiliconUa hoʻomau ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka piʻi ʻana, a ua hoʻomau ka hoʻonui ʻana o ka hapa o Kina, alakaʻi ʻia e ka ʻoihana photovoltaic. Mai ka makahiki 2012 a hiki i 2021, ua hōʻike maʻamau ka hoʻohana ʻana o ka polysilicon honua i kahi piʻi kiʻekiʻe, e piʻi ana mai 237,000 tons a i kahi 653,000 tons. I ka makahiki 2018, ua hoʻokomo ʻia ke kulekele hou 531 photovoltaic a Kina, kahi i hōʻemi pono ai i ka uku kālā no ka hana mana photovoltaic. Ua hāʻule ka mana photovoltaic hou i hoʻokomo ʻia e 18% i kēlā me kēia makahiki, a ua hoʻopilikia ʻia ke koi no ka polysilicon. Mai ka makahiki 2019, ua hoʻolauna ka mokuʻāina i kekahi mau kulekele e hoʻolaha i ka parity grid o photovoltaics. Me ka hoʻomohala wikiwiki ʻana o ka ʻoihana photovoltaic, ua komo ka noi no ka polysilicon i kahi manawa o ka ulu wikiwiki. I loko o kēia manawa, hoʻomau ka piʻi ʻana o ka nui o ka hoʻohana polysilicon o Kina i ka nui o ka hoʻohana honua, mai 61.5% i 2012 a i 93.9% i 2021, ma muli o ka ulu wikiwiki ʻana o Kina i ka ʻoihana photovoltaic. Mai ka hiʻohiʻona o ke kumu hoʻohana honua o nā ʻano polysilicon like ʻole i 2021, ʻo nā mea silika i hoʻohana ʻia no nā cell photovoltaic e helu ʻia ma ka liʻiliʻi he 94%, ʻo ia ka polysilicon solar-grade a me ka silikon granular no 91% a me 3%, ʻoiai. hiki ke hoʻohana ʻia no nā helu chips no 94%. ʻO ka ratio he 6%, e hōʻike ana i ka koi o kēia manawa no ka polysilicon e hoʻomalu ʻia e nā photovoltaics. Manaʻo ʻia me ka hoʻomehana ʻana o ke kulekele pālua-carbon, e ʻoi aku ka ikaika o ka koi no ka hiki ke hoʻokomo ʻia i ka photovoltaic, a e hoʻomau ka hoʻohana ʻana a me ka hapa o ka polysilicon solar-grade.
1.2. Silicon wafer: monocrystalline silicon wafer noho i ka mainstream, a hoʻomau ka ʻenehana Czochralski e ulu wikiwiki ana
ʻO ka loulou i lalo iho o ka polysilicon he mau wafer silika, a ʻo Kina i kēia manawa ke hoʻomalu nei i ka mākeke wafer silicon honua. Mai ka makahiki 2012 a hiki i 2021, ua hoʻomau ka hoʻonui ʻana o ka honua a me ka China silicon wafer production a me ka hoʻopuka, a hoʻomau ka ulu ʻana o ka ʻoihana photovoltaic. Hoʻohana ʻia nā wafers silikon ma ke alahaka e hoʻopili ai i nā mea silikoni a me nā pila, a ʻaʻohe kaumaha o ka hiki ke hana, no laila ke hoʻomau nei ia i ka huki ʻana i nā hui he nui e komo i ka ʻoihana. I ka makahiki 2021, ua hoʻonui nui ʻia nā mea hana wafer silika Kinahana ʻanahiki i ka 213.5GW puka, ka mea i alakaʻi i ka hana wafer silicon honua e hoʻonui i 215.4GW. E like me ka mea i loaʻa a i hoʻonui hou ʻia ka mana hana ma Kina, ua manaʻo ʻia e hoʻomau ka ulu ʻana o ka makahiki i ka 15-25% i nā makahiki e hiki mai ana, a e hoʻomau mau ka hana wafer o Kina i kahi kūlana mana loa ma ka honua.
Hiki ke hana ʻia i loko o ke kinikona polycrystalline i loko o nā ʻāpana silikon polycrystalline a i ʻole nā koʻokoʻo silikona monocrystalline. ʻO ke kaʻina hana o nā polycrystalline silicon ingots ka nui o ke ʻano hoʻolei a me ke ʻano hoʻoheheʻe pololei. I kēia manawa, ʻo ka lua o ke ʻano ke ʻano nui, a mālama ʻia ka nui o ka pohō ma kahi o 5%. ʻO ke ʻano o ka hoʻolei ʻana, ʻo ia ka hoʻoheheʻe ʻana i ka mea silika i loko o ka crucible ma mua, a laila e hoʻolei i loko o kahi crucible preheated no ka hoʻoluʻu. Ma ke kaohi ʻana i ka helu hoʻoluʻu, hoʻolei ʻia ka polycrystalline silicon ingot e ka ʻenehana paʻa kuhikuhi. ʻO ke kaʻina hana hoʻoheheʻe wela o ke ʻano hoʻoheheʻe pololei e like me ke ʻano o ka hoʻoheheʻe ʻana, kahi i hoʻoheheʻe ʻia ai ka polysilicon i loko o ka crucible mua, akā ʻokoʻa ka pae hoʻoluʻu mai ke ʻano hoʻolei. ʻOiai ua like loa nā ʻano ʻelua i ke ʻano, ʻo ke ʻano hoʻoheheʻe pololei wale nō e pono ai i hoʻokahi crucible, a ʻo ka huahana polysilicon i hana ʻia he ʻano maikaʻi maikaʻi, kahi kūpono i ka ulu ʻana o nā polycrystalline silicon ingots me ka ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi, a maʻalahi ke kaʻina hana. automate, hiki ke hana i ke kūlana kūloko o ka hōʻemi Hapa aniani. I kēia manawa, hoʻohana maʻamau nā ʻoihana alakaʻi i ka ʻoihana ikehu lā i ke ʻano hoʻoheheʻe pololei e hana i nā ingots silicon polycrystalline, a ʻoi aku ka haʻahaʻa o ke kalapona a me ka oxygen, i hoʻomalu ʻia ma lalo o 10ppma a me 16ppma. I ka wā e hiki mai ana, e hoʻomau ʻia ka hana ʻana o ka polycrystalline silicon ingots e ke ʻano hoʻoheheʻe pololei, a e mau ana ka nui o ka pohō ma kahi o 5% i loko o ʻelima mau makahiki.
Hoʻokumu ʻia ka hana ʻana o nā lāʻau silicon monocrystalline ma ke ʻano Czochralski, i hoʻohui ʻia e ke ʻano hoʻoheheʻe ʻana o ka suspension zone melting, a ʻo nā huahana i hana ʻia e nā mea ʻelua he hoʻohana like ʻole. Ke hoʻohana nei ke ʻano Czochralski i ke kūpaʻa graphite i ka wela polycrystalline silicon i loko o kahi kīʻaha quartz maʻemaʻe kiʻekiʻe i loko o kahi ʻōnaehana thermal tube pololei e hoʻoheheʻe ai, a laila e hoʻokomo i ka aniani hua i loko o ka ʻili o ka heheʻe no ka hui ʻana, a hoʻohuli i ke aniani hua i ka wā e hoʻohuli ai i ka. kīʻaha. , hoʻokiʻekiʻe mālie ʻia ke aniani ʻanoʻano i luna, a loaʻa ke silikoni monocrystalline ma o nā kaʻina o ka lūlū hua, hoʻonui, huli ʻana i ka poʻohiwi, ka ulu ʻana o ke anawaena like, a me ka hoʻopau ʻana. ʻO ke ʻano o ka hoʻoheheʻe ʻana o ka ʻāina lana kū i ka hoʻopaʻa ʻana i nā mea polycrystalline maʻemaʻe kiʻekiʻe o ke kolamu i loko o ke keʻena umu, e hoʻoneʻe mālie i ka coil metala ma ka ʻaoʻao polycrystalline lōʻihi a hele i ka polycrystalline columnar, a me ka hele ʻana i kahi alapine lekiō kiʻekiʻe i ka metala. e hoʻoheheʻe ʻia ka ʻāpana o loko o ka wili kia polycrystalline, a ma hope o ka hoʻoneʻe ʻia ʻana o ka wili, hoʻoheheʻe hou ka hehee a lilo i aniani hoʻokahi. Ma muli o nā kaʻina hana like ʻole, aia nā ʻokoʻa i nā lako hana, nā kumukūʻai hana a me ka maikaʻi o ka huahana. I kēia manawa, ʻo nā huahana i loaʻa i ke ʻano hoʻoheheʻe ʻāina he maʻemaʻe kiʻekiʻe a hiki ke hoʻohana ʻia no ka hana ʻana i nā mea semiconductor, ʻoiai ʻo ke ʻano Czochralski hiki ke hoʻokō i nā kūlana no ka hana ʻana i ka silikon kristal hoʻokahi no nā cell photovoltaic a he haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa, no laila. ke ala nui. I ka makahiki 2021, ʻo ka māhele mākeke o ke ala huki pololei ma kahi o 85%, a manaʻo ʻia e hoʻonui iki i nā makahiki e hiki mai ana. Kuhi ʻia nā māhele mākeke ma 2025 a me 2030 he 87% a me 90%. Ma ke ano o ka apana hoohehee ana i ke kilika kilikaki hookahi, he ki'eki'e ke ki'eki'e o ka 'oihana o ka apana melting single crystal silicon. loaʻa), TOPSIL (Denemaka) . I ka wā e hiki mai ana, ʻaʻole e hoʻonui nui ʻia ka pālākiō hoʻoheheʻe o ka silika aniani hoʻokahi. ʻO ke kumu, ʻoi aku ka hope o nā ʻenehana pili o Kina i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me Iapana a me Kelemania, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka hiki o nā mea hoʻomehana wela kiʻekiʻe a me nā kūlana kaʻina hana crystallization. ʻO ka ʻenehana o fused silicon single crystal ma kahi ākea nui e koi i nā ʻoihana Kina e hoʻomau i ka ʻimi ʻana iā lākou iho.
Hiki ke hoʻokaʻawale ʻia ke ʻano Czochralski i ka ʻenehana huki kristal mau (CCZ) a me ka ʻenehana huki huki kristal (RCZ). I kēia manawa, ʻo ke ʻano kumu nui o ka ʻoihana ʻo RCZ, aia i ka pae hoʻololi mai RCZ a CCZ. He kūʻokoʻa ka huki ʻana a me ka hānai ʻana o RZC. Ma mua o kēlā me kēia huki ʻana, pono e hoʻomaʻalili ʻia ka ingot aniani hoʻokahi a wehe ʻia i loko o ke keʻena ʻīpuka, ʻoiai hiki iā CCZ ke ʻike i ka hānai ʻana a me ka hoʻoheheʻe ʻana i ka wā e huki ana. He ʻano makua ʻo RCZ, a he wahi liʻiliʻi no ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana i ka ʻenehana i ka wā e hiki mai ana; ʻoiai ʻo CCZ ka maikaʻi o ka hoʻemi ʻana i ke kumukūʻai a me ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana i ka pono, a aia i kahi pae o ka hoʻomohala wikiwiki. Ma ke ʻano o ke kumukūʻai, ke hoʻohālikelike ʻia me RCZ, e lawe ana ma kahi o 8 mau hola ma mua o ka huki ʻana o kahi koʻokoʻo hoʻokahi, hiki i ka CCZ ke hoʻomaikaʻi nui i ka hana hana, hoʻemi i ke kumukūʻai crucible a me ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka ikehu ma ka hoʻopau ʻana i kēia hana. ʻOi aku ka nui o ka nui o ka umu ahi ma mua o 20% ma mua o ka RCZ. ʻOi aku ka uku o ka hana ma mua o 10% haʻahaʻa ma mua o RCZ. Ma ke ʻano o ka pono, hiki i ka CCZ ke hoʻopau i ke kaha kiʻi o 8-10 mau koʻokoʻo silika aniani i loko o ke ola o ka crucible (250 mau hola), ʻoiai ʻo RCZ hiki ke hoʻopau wale ma kahi o 4, a hiki ke hoʻonui ʻia ka pono hana e 100-150% . Ma nā ʻōlelo o ka maikaʻi, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka resistivity i ka CCZ, ka haʻahaʻa o ka oxygen maʻiʻo, a me ka lohi o ka hōʻiliʻili ʻana o nā mea haumia metala, no laila ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka hoʻomākaukau ʻana i nā wafers silika aniani hoʻokahi, aia nō hoʻi i ka wā o ka ulu wikiwiki. I kēia manawa, ua hoʻolaha kekahi poʻe Pākē iā lākou he ʻenehana CCZ, a ua maopopo maoli ke ala o ka granular silicon-CCZ-n-type monocrystalline silicon wafers, a ua hoʻomaka hoʻi e hoʻohana i ka 100% granular silicon material. . I ka wā e hiki mai ana, e hoʻololi maoli ʻo CCZ i ka RCZ, akā e lawe i kahi kaʻina hana.
Hoʻokaʻawale ʻia ke kaʻina hana o nā wafers silicon monocrystalline i ʻehā mau ʻanuʻu: huki, ʻokiʻoki, ʻokiʻoki, hoʻomaʻemaʻe a hoʻokaʻawale. ʻO ka puka ʻana mai o ke ʻano o ka ʻoki ʻana i ka uea daimana i hoʻemi nui i ka nui o ka pohō. Ua wehewehe ʻia ke kaʻina hana huki aniani. Aia i loko o ke kaʻina hana ʻoki ʻoki, ʻālikelike, a chamfering. ʻO ka ʻoki ʻana, ʻo ia ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka mīkini ʻokiʻoki e ʻoki i ke silikona kolamu i loko o nā wafer silika. ʻO ka hoʻomaʻemaʻe ʻana a me ka hoʻokaʻawale ʻana i nā hana hope loa i ka hana ʻana i nā wafer silika. ʻO ke ala daimana uea slicing ʻano ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi ma mua o ke ʻano kuʻuna mortar wire slicing ʻano, ka mea i ʻike nui ʻia i ka wā pōkole a me ka haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa. ʻO ka wikiwiki o ka uwea daimana he ʻelima mau manawa ma mua o ka ʻoki kuʻuna. No ka laʻana, no ka ʻoki ʻana i ka wafer hoʻokahi, ʻo ka ʻoki uea kuʻuna kuʻuna ma kahi o 10 mau hola, a ʻo ka ʻoki uea daimana ma kahi o 2 mau hola wale nō. He liʻiliʻi nō hoʻi ka nalowale ʻana o ka ʻoki uwea daimana, a ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi o ka papa pōʻino i hana ʻia e ka ʻoki uwea daimana ma mua o ka ʻoki ʻana i ka uea momi, kahi kūpono i ka ʻoki ʻana i nā wafers silicon thinner. I nā makahiki i hala iho nei, i mea e hōʻemi ai i ka ʻoki ʻana i nā poho a me nā kumukūʻai hana, ua huli nā ʻoihana i nā ʻano hana ʻoki uea daimana, a ʻo ke anawaena o nā kaʻa kaʻa kaʻa daimana e hoʻohaʻahaʻa a haʻahaʻa. I ka makahiki 2021, he 43-56 μm ke anawaena o ka busbar uea daimana, a e emi loa ana ke anawaena o ka busbar uea daimana i hoohanaia no na wafers silicon monocrystalline a hoomau i ka emi. Ua manaʻo ʻia aia ma 2025 a me 2030, ʻo nā anawaena o nā busbar uea daimana i hoʻohana ʻia e ʻoki i nā wafers silikon monocrystalline he 36 μm a me 33 μm, a ʻo nā anawaena o nā busbar uea daimana i hoʻohana ʻia e ʻoki i nā wafers silikon polycrystalline he 51 μm. a me 51 μm. ʻO kēia no ka nui o nā hemahema a me nā haumia i loko o nā wafers silicon polycrystalline, a hiki i nā uea lahilahi ke haki. No laila, ʻoi aku ka nui o ke anawaena o ka busbar uea daimana i hoʻohana ʻia no ka ʻoki ʻana i ka wafer silikon polycrystalline ma mua o nā wafers silikon monocrystalline, a me ka emi ʻana o ka mākeke o nā wafers silikon polycrystalline, ua hoʻohana ʻia no ka polycrystalline silicon ʻO ka emi ʻana o ke anawaena o ke daimana. ua lohi nā pahu uea i ʻoki ʻia e nā ʻāpana.
I kēia manawa, hoʻokaʻawale nui ʻia nā wafer silika i ʻelua ʻano: polycrystalline silicon wafers a me monocrystalline silicon wafers. Loaʻa i nā wafers silicon monocrystalline ka maikaʻi o ke ola lawelawe lōʻihi a me ka hoʻololi kiʻekiʻe photoelectric pono. Hoʻokumu ʻia nā wafers silikon polycrystalline me nā ʻāpana aniani me nā ʻano hoʻokele mokulele aniani ʻē aʻe, ʻoiai ʻo nā wafers silikon kristal hoʻokahi i hana ʻia me ka silika polycrystalline ma ke ʻano he kumu a loaʻa i ka hoʻonohonoho mokulele aniani like. I ka nana aku, he polū-ʻeleʻele a me ka ʻeleʻele-ʻeleʻele nā wafers silikon polycrystalline a me nā wafers silicon kristal hoʻokahi. No ka mea, ua ʻoki ʻia nā mea ʻelua mai ka polycrystalline silicon ingots a me ka monocrystalline silicon rods, ʻo ia hoʻi, ʻo nā ʻano he huinahā a me quasi-square. ʻO ke ola lawelawe o nā wafers silicon polycrystalline a me nā wafers silicon monocrystalline ma kahi o 20 mau makahiki. Inā kūpono ke ʻano o ka hoʻopili ʻana a me ka hoʻohana ʻana i ke kaiapuni, hiki ke ola o ka lawelawe ma mua o 25 mau makahiki. Ma ka ʻōlelo maʻamau, ʻoi aku ka lōʻihi o ke ola o nā wafer silika monocrystalline ma mua o nā wafers silikon polycrystalline. Eia kekahi, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o nā wafers silikon monocrystalline i ka hoʻololi ʻana i ka photoelectric, a ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi o ko lākou dislocation density a me nā mea metala ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi ma mua o ka polycrystalline silicon wafers. ʻO ka hopena hui ʻana o nā mea like ʻole e hoʻolilo i ka mea lawe liʻiliʻi i ke ola o nā kristal hoʻokahi mau haneli mau manawa kiʻekiʻe ma mua o nā wafers silicon polycrystalline. Ma laila e hōʻike ana i ka maikaʻi o ka hoʻololi ʻana. Ma 2021, ʻo ka hoʻololi kiʻekiʻe kiʻekiʻe loa o ka polycrystalline silicon wafers ma kahi o 21%, a ʻo ka monocrystalline silicon wafers e piʻi i ka 24.2%.
Ma waho aʻe o ka lōʻihi o ke ola a me ka hoʻololi kiʻekiʻe o ka hoʻololi ʻana, ua loaʻa i nā wafers silicon monocrystalline ka maikaʻi o ka thinning, kahi kūpono e hōʻemi i ka hoʻohana ʻana i ke silika a me nā kumukūʻai wafer silika, akā e hoʻolohe i ka piʻi ʻana o ka fragmentation rate. ʻO ka hoʻoemi ʻana o nā wafer silika e kōkua i ka hōʻemi ʻana i nā kumukūʻai hana, a hiki i ke kaʻina hana slicing i kēia manawa ke hoʻokō pono i nā pono o ka thinning, akā ʻo ka mānoanoa o nā wafer silika pono e hoʻokō pono i nā pono o ke kelepona lalo a me ka hana ʻana o nā mea hana. Ma keʻano laulā, ua emi ka mānoanoa o nā wafer silika i nā makahiki i hala iho nei, a ʻoi aku ka nui o ka mānoanoa o nā wafer silikon polycrystalline ma mua o nā wafers silicon monocrystalline. Hoʻokaʻawale hou ʻia nā wafers silicon monocrystalline i nā wafers silicon type n a me nā wafer silicon type p, aʻo nā wafers silicon n-type ka nui o ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka Bateri TOPCon a me ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka pākaukau HJT. I ka makahiki 2021, ʻo ka mānoanoa awelika o nā wafers silicon polycrystalline he 178μm, a ʻo ka nele o ke koi i ka wā e hiki mai ana e alakaʻi iā lākou e hoʻomau i ka lahilahi. No laila, ua wānana ʻia e emi iki ka mānoanoa mai 2022 a 2024, a e noho ka mānoanoa ma kahi o 170μm ma hope o 2025; ka awelika mānoanoa o p-type monocrystalline silicon wafers e pili ana i 170μm, a ua manaoia e hāʻule i ka 155μm a me 140μm ma 2025 a me 2030. Ma waena o nā n-type monocrystalline silicon wafers, ka mānoanoa o ka silicon wafers i hoʻohana 'ia no ka HJT pūnaewele mea e pili ana. 150μm, a me ka awelika mānoanoa o n-type silicon wafers i hoʻohana 'ia no TOPCon pūnaewele mea 165μm. 135μm.
Eia kekahi, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka hana ʻana i nā wafers silicon polycrystalline ma mua o nā wafers silicon monocrystalline, akā maʻalahi nā hana hana, e lawe mai ana i nā pono kumukūʻai i nā wafers silicon polycrystalline. ʻO ke silika polycrystalline, ma ke ʻano he kumu maʻamau no nā wafers silicon polycrystalline a me nā wafers silicon monocrystalline, he ʻokoʻa ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka hana ʻana o nā mea ʻelua, ʻo ia ke kumu o nā ʻokoʻa o ka maʻemaʻe a me nā pae hana o nā mea ʻelua. I ka makahiki 2021, ʻo ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka silika o ka polycrystalline ingot he 1.10 kg / kg. Manaʻo ʻia ʻo ka hoʻopukapuka liʻiliʻi i ka noiʻi a me ka hoʻomohala ʻana e alakaʻi i nā loli liʻiliʻi i ka wā e hiki mai ana. He 1.066 kg/kg ka hoʻohana ʻana o ke kilikakika o ke koʻokoʻo huki, a aia kekahi lumi no ka optimization. Manaʻo ʻia he 1.05 kg/kg a me 1.043 kg/kg i 2025 a me 2030, kēlā me kēia. Ma ke kaʻina hana huki aniani hoʻokahi, hiki ke hoʻokō ʻia ka hoʻemi ʻana o ka hoʻohana silika o ke koʻokoʻo huki ma ka hōʻemi ʻana i ka nalowale o ka hoʻomaʻemaʻe a me ka ʻoki ʻana, ka mālama pono ʻana i ka ʻenehana hana, hoʻemi i ka hapa o nā primers, hoʻomaikaʻi i ka mana precision, a me ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka hoʻohālikelike. a me ka ʻenehana hoʻoponopono ʻana i nā mea silika i hoʻohaʻahaʻa ʻia. ʻOiai ke kiʻekiʻe o ka hoʻohana ʻana i ke silika o nā wafers silika polycrystalline, ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe o ke kumu kūʻai o nā wafers silikon polycrystalline no ka mea ua hana ʻia nā ingots polycrystalline silicon e ka hoʻoheheʻe ʻana i ka ingot hoʻoheheʻe wela, aʻo ka monocrystalline silicon ingots e hana pinepine ʻia e ka ulu lohi i nā kapuahi aniani hoʻokahi Czochralski. e hoopau ana i ka mana kiekie. Haʻahaʻa. Ma 2021, ʻo ka awelika kumu kūʻai o nā wafers silicon monocrystalline ma kahi o 0.673 yuan/W, a ʻo nā wafers silicon polycrystalline he 0.66 yuan/W.
I ka emi ana o ka manoanoa o ka wafer silika a me ka emi ana o ke anawaena o ka busbar uwea daimana, e mahuahua ana ka puka o na kookoo silicon/ingots o ke anawaena like no ka kilo, a e oi aku ka nui o na kookoo kilikakika hookahi o ke kaumaha hookahi. o ka polycrystalline silicon ingots. Ma ke ʻano o ka mana, ʻokoʻa ka mana i hoʻohana ʻia e kēlā me kēia wafer silicon e like me ke ʻano a me ka nui. I ka makahiki 2021, ʻo ka puka o ka p-type 166mm ka nui monocrystalline square bar ma kahi o 64 mau ʻāpana i hoʻokahi kilokani, a ʻo ka hoʻopuka ʻana o nā ingots square polycrystalline ma kahi o 59 mau ʻāpana. Ma waena o ka p-type one crystal silicon wafers, ka puka o 158.75mm nui monocrystalline square rods ma kahi o 70 mau ʻāpana no ka kilo, ʻo ka puka o ka p-type 182mm ka nui o nā koʻokoʻo pahu aniani ma kahi o 53 mau ʻāpana no ka kilo, a me ka puka o p. -ʻano 210mm ka nui o nā koʻokoʻo aniani hoʻokahi no kilokani ma kahi o 53 mau ʻāpana. He 40 mau ʻāpana ka hoʻopuka ʻana o ka pā huinaha. Mai 2022 a 2030, ʻo ka hoʻomau mau ʻana o nā wafer silika e alakaʻi i ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka nui o nā lāʻau silikona / ingots o ka leo like. ʻO ke anawaena liʻiliʻi o ka busbar uea daimana a me ka nui o nā mea liʻiliʻi e kōkua pū i ka hōʻemi ʻana i nā poho, a laila e hoʻonui ai i ka nui o nā wafers i hana ʻia. ka nui. Ua manaʻo ʻia ma 2025 a me 2030, ʻo ka puka o ka p-type 166mm ka nui monocrystalline square rods ma kahi o 71 a me 78 mau ʻāpana i ka kilo, a ʻo ka puka o ka polycrystalline square ingots ma kahi o 62 a me 62 mau ʻāpana, ʻo ia ka mea ma muli o ka mākeke haʻahaʻa. kaʻana like o ka polycrystalline silicon wafers He paʻakikī ke hana i ka holomua ʻenehana nui. Aia nā ʻokoʻa i ka mana o nā ʻano like ʻole a me nā nui o nā wafer silika. Wahi a ka ʻikepili hoʻolaha no ka mana awelika o 158.75mm silicon wafers e pili ana i 5.8W / ʻāpana, ʻo ka mana awelika o 166mm nui silicon wafers ma kahi o 6.25W / ʻāpana, a ʻo ka mana awelika o 182mm silicon wafers ma kahi o 6.25W / ʻāpana. . ʻO ka mana awelika o ka wafer silika nui ma kahi o 7.49W / ʻāpana, a ʻo ka mana awelika o ka 210mm nui silicon wafer ma kahi o 10W / ʻāpana.
I nā makahiki i hala iho nei, ua ulu mālie nā wafers silicon i ke kuhikuhi o ka nui nui, a ʻo ka nui nui ka mea e hoʻonui ai i ka mana o kahi pahu hoʻokahi, a laila e hoʻoheheʻe i ke kumukūʻai non-silicona o nā cell. Eia nō naʻe, pono e noʻonoʻo ka hoʻoponopono ʻana i ka nui o nā wafer silika i luna a i lalo i ka hoʻohālikelike ʻana a me nā pilikia maʻamau, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka ukana a me nā pilikia kiʻekiʻe o kēia manawa. I kēia manawa, aia ʻelua mau kahua hoʻomoana ma ka mākeke e pili ana i ka hoʻomohala ʻana o ka nui o ka silicon wafer nui, ʻo ia hoʻi ka nui 182mm a me ka nui 210mm. ʻO ka manaʻo o 182mm ka mea nui mai ka hiʻohiʻona o ka hoʻohui ʻana i ka ʻoihana kūwaho, e pili ana i ka noʻonoʻo ʻana i ka hoʻokomo ʻana a me ka lawe ʻana i nā cell photovoltaic, ka mana a me ka pono o nā modules, a me ka synergy ma waena o ke kahawai a me lalo; ʻoiai ʻo 210mm ka mea nui mai ka hiʻohiʻona o ke kumukūʻai hana a me ke kumukūʻai ʻōnaehana. Ua hoʻonui ʻia ka hoʻopuka ʻana o 210mm silicon wafers e ʻoi aku ma mua o 15% i ke kaʻina kaha kiʻi koʻokoʻo umu hoʻokahi, ua hoʻemi ʻia ke kumukūʻai hana pākaukau ma lalo ma kahi o 0.02 yuan/W, a ua hoʻemi ʻia ke kumukūʻai o ke kūkulu hale mana ma kahi o 0.1 yuan/ Ua ʻōlelo ʻo W. I nā makahiki e hiki mai ana, ua manaʻo ʻia e hoʻopau ʻia nā wafer silika me ka nui ma lalo o 166mm; e hoʻoponopono mālie ʻia nā pilikia pili i luna a me lalo o 210mm silicon wafers, a lilo ke kumukūʻai i mea nui e pili ana i ka hoʻopukapuka kālā a me ka hana ʻana o nā ʻoihana. No laila, e hoʻonui ʻia ka māhele mākeke o 210mm silicon wafers. Piʻi kūpaʻa; E lilo ʻo 182mm silicon wafer i ka nui o ka mākeke ma muli o kāna mau pono i ka hana ʻana i ka vertically integrated, akā me ka ulu ʻana o ka 210mm silicon wafer application technology, 182mm e hāʻawi i ke ala iā ia. Eia hou, paʻakikī ka hoʻohana nui ʻia ʻana o nā wafer silika nui i ka mākeke i nā makahiki e hiki mai ana, no ka mea, e piʻi nui ana ke kumukūʻai hana a me ka hoʻokomo ʻana o nā wafer silika nui, he paʻakikī ke hoʻopau ʻia e ka mālama i nā koina hana a me nā koina ʻōnaehana. . I ka makahiki 2021, ʻo ka nui o ka wafer silika ma ka mākeke he 156.75mm, 157mm, 158.75mm, 166mm, 182mm, 210mm, a pēlā aku. i emi iho i ka 5%, e hoʻololi mālie ʻia i ka wā e hiki mai ana; ʻO 166mm ka hopena nui loa i hiki ke hoʻonui ʻia no ka laina hana pākaukau e kū nei, ʻo ia ka nui nui loa i nā makahiki ʻelua i hala. Ma ke ʻano o ka nui o ka hoʻololi ʻana, manaʻo ʻia e emi ka mākeke ma mua o 2% i 2030; ʻO ka nui hui o 182mm a me 210mm e helu no 45% i 2021, a e piʻi wikiwiki ka mākeke i ka wā e hiki mai ana. Ua manaʻo ʻia e ʻoi aku ka nui o ka mākeke ma 2030 ma mua o 98%.
I nā makahiki i hala iho nei, ua hoʻomau ka māhuahua ʻana o ka mākeke monocrystalline silicon, a ua noho ʻo ia i ke kūlana koʻikoʻi i ka mākeke. Mai ka makahiki 2012 a hiki i 2021, ua piʻi ka hapa o ka silika monocrystalline mai lalo o 20% a i 93.3%, he piʻi nui. I ka makahiki 2018, ʻo nā wafers silicon ma ka mākeke ka nui o nā wafers silicon polycrystalline, ʻoi aku ka nui o 50%. ʻO ke kumu nui ʻaʻole hiki i nā pono ʻenehana o nā wafers silicon monocrystalline ke uhi i nā hemahema o ke kumukūʻai. Mai ka makahiki 2019, ʻoiai ua ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka hoʻololi photoelectric o nā wafers silicon monocrystalline ma mua o nā wafers silicon polycrystalline, a ke hoʻomau nei ke kumukūʻai hana o nā wafers silicon monocrystalline me ka holomua ʻenehana, ua hoʻomau ka mākeke o nā wafers silicon monocrystalline. ka mea nui ma ka makeke. huahana. Ua manaʻo ʻia e hiki i ka hapa o nā wafers silikon monocrystalline ma kahi o 96% i 2025, a ʻo ka māhele mākeke o nā wafers silikon monocrystalline e hiki i 97.7% i ka makahiki 2030. (Report source: Future Think Tank)
1.3. ʻO nā pā: ʻo ka PERC ka mea i hoʻomalu i ka mākeke, a ʻo ka hoʻomohala ʻana o nā ʻano ʻano n-type e hoʻonui i ka maikaʻi o ka huahana.
ʻO ka loulou waena o ke kaulahao ʻoihana photovoltaic e loaʻa ana nā cell photovoltaic a me nā module cell photovoltaic. ʻO ka hana ʻana o nā wafers silicon i loko o nā cell ka mea nui loa i ka hoʻokō ʻana i ka hoʻololi photoelectric. ʻEhiku mau ʻanuʻu e hana ai i ke kelepona maʻamau mai kahi wafer silika. ʻO ka mua, e hoʻokomo i ka wafer silika i loko o ka waika hydrofluoric e hana i kahi ʻano suede e like me ka pyramid ma luna o kona ʻili, a laila e hōʻemi i ka noʻonoʻo ʻana o ka lā a me ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka māmā; ʻO ka lua, ʻo ia ka Phosphorus i hoʻopuehu ʻia ma ka ʻili o kekahi ʻaoʻao o ka wafer silika e hana i kahi hui PN, a pili pono kona ʻano i ka pono o ke kelepona; ʻO ke kolu, ʻo ia ka wehe ʻana i ka hui PN i hana ʻia ma ka ʻaoʻao o ka wafer silicon i ka wā o ka diffusion i mea e pale ai i ke kaapuni pōkole o ke kelepona; Hoʻopili ʻia kahi papa kiʻi silicon nitride ma ka ʻaoʻao kahi i hoʻokumu ʻia ai ka hui PN e hōʻemi i ka noʻonoʻo māmā a ma ka manawa like e hoʻonui ai i ka pono; ʻo ka lima ka paʻi ʻana i nā electrodes metala ma mua a ma hope o ka wafer silicon e hōʻiliʻili i nā mea lawe liʻiliʻi i hana ʻia e nā photovoltaics; ʻO ke kaapuni i paʻi ʻia i ka pae paʻi ʻia a hoʻokumu ʻia, a ua hui pū ʻia me ka wafer silicon, ʻo ia hoʻi, ke kelepona; ʻo ka hope, ua hoʻokaʻawale ʻia nā cell me nā ʻano hana like ʻole.
Hoʻohana pinepine ʻia nā ʻili silika crystalline me nā wafer silika ma ke ʻano he substrates, a hiki ke hoʻokaʻawale ʻia i loko o nā ʻano p-type a me n-type cell e like me ke ʻano o nā wafers silicon. Ma waena o lākou, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka hoʻololi ʻana o nā ʻano n-type a ke hoʻololi mālie nei i nā cell type p i nā makahiki i hala. Hana ʻia nā wafers silikona P-type ma o ka doping silika me ka boron, a me n-type silicon wafers i hana ʻia me ka phosphorus. No laila, ʻoi aku ka haʻahaʻa o ka mea boron i loko o ka n-type silicon wafer, no laila ke keʻakeʻa nei i ka hoʻopaʻa ʻana o nā paʻakikī boron-oxygen, hoʻomaikaʻi i ke ola o ka mea lawe liʻiliʻi o ka mea silika, a ma ka manawa like, ʻaʻohe attenuation kiʻi. i ka pākaukau. Eia kekahi, ʻo nā mea lawe liʻiliʻi n-type he mau lua, ʻo nā mea lawe liʻiliʻi p-type he mau electrons, a ʻo ka ʻāpana kea o ka hapa nui o nā ʻātoma haumia no nā lua he liʻiliʻi ma mua o nā electrons. No laila, ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe o ka mea lawe liʻiliʻi o ke kelepona n-type a ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe o ka hoʻololi photoelectric. Wahi a ka ʻikepili keʻena hana, ʻo ka palena kiʻekiʻe o ka hoʻololi ʻana i ka pono o nā ʻano p-type he 24.5%, a ʻo ka hoʻololi ʻana o ka hoʻololi ʻana o nā ʻano n-type a hiki i 28.7%, no laila ke hōʻike nei nā ʻano n-type i ke kuhikuhi hoʻomohala o ka ʻenehana e hiki mai ana. I ka makahiki 2021, he mau koina kiʻekiʻe ko n-type cell (ʻoi aku ka nui o nā cell heterojunction a me nā cell TOPCon), a he liʻiliʻi ka nui o ka hana nui. ʻO ka māhele mākeke o kēia manawa ma kahi o 3%, ʻo ia ka mea like me ka 2020.
I ka makahiki 2021, e hoʻomaikaʻi maikaʻi ʻia ka hoʻololi ʻana o nā cell type n, a ke manaʻo ʻia nei e ʻoi aku ka nui o ka lumi no ka holomua ʻenehana i nā makahiki ʻelima e hiki mai ana. I ka makahiki 2021, e hoʻohana ka hana nui o nā p-type monocrystalline cell i ka ʻenehana PERC, a ʻo ka awelika o ka hoʻololi ʻana e hiki i ka 23.1%, kahi hoʻonui o 0.3 pakeneka i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me 2020; e hiki i ka 21.0% ka hoʻololi ʻana o ka polycrystalline black silicon cell me ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka ʻenehana PERC, i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me 2020. ʻO ka piʻi ʻana o ka makahiki he 0.2 pakeneka; ʻAʻole ikaika ka hoʻomaikaʻi maikaʻi ʻana o ka polycrystalline black silicon cell efficiency, ʻo ka hoʻololi ʻana i ka makahiki 2021 ma kahi o 19.5%, he 0.1 pakeneka wale nō ke kiʻekiʻe, a ua kaupalena ʻia ka nui o ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana i ka wā e hiki mai ana; ʻo ka awelika o ka hoʻololi ʻana o ka ingot monocrystalline PERC cell he 22.4%, ʻo ia ka 0.7 pakeneka haʻahaʻa ma mua o ka monocrystalline PERC cell; hiki i ka awelika hoʻololi hoʻololi o n-type TOPCon pūnaewele hiki i 24%, a hiki i ka awelika hoʻololi hoʻololi o nā pūnaewele heterojunction i 24.2%, ua hoʻomaikaʻi maikaʻi ʻia nā mea ʻelua i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me 2020, a ʻo ka awelika hoʻololi hoʻololi o nā pūnaewele IBC hiki i 24,2%. Me ka hoʻomohala ʻana o ka ʻenehana i ka wā e hiki mai ana, hiki i nā ʻenehana pākaukau e like me TBC a me HBC ke hoʻomau i ka holomua. I ka wā e hiki mai ana, me ka hōʻemi ʻana i nā kumukūʻai hana a me ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana i ka hua, ʻo nā ʻano n-type kekahi o nā kuhikuhi hoʻomohala nui o ka ʻenehana pākaukau.
Mai ka hiʻohiʻona o ke ala ʻenehana pākaukau, ʻo ka hoʻonui hou ʻana o ka ʻenehana pākahi i hele nui ma BSF, PERC, TOPCon e pili ana i ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana o PERC, a me HJT, kahi ʻenehana hou e hoʻohuli i ka PERC; Hiki ke hoʻohui hou ʻia ʻo TOPCon me IBC e hana i ka TBC, a hiki ke hui pū ʻia ʻo HJT me IBC e lilo i HBC. P-type monocrystalline pūnaewele hoʻohana nui i ka ʻenehana PERC, p-type polycrystalline cell i loko o polycrystalline black silicon cell and ingot monocrystalline cell, ka mea hope e pili ana i ka hoʻohui ʻana o nā kristal hua monocrystalline ma ke kumu o ke kaʻina hana polycrystalline ingot maʻamau, ka paʻa kuhikuhi Ma hope o kēlā, kahi. ua hoʻokumu ʻia ka ingot silicon square, a ua hana ʻia kahi wafer silika i hui pū ʻia me ka aniani hoʻokahi a me ka polycrystalline ma o nā kaʻina hana. No ka mea, hoʻohana maoli ia i kahi ala hoʻomākaukau polycrystalline, ua hoʻokomo ʻia i loko o ka māhele o nā pūnaewele polycrystalline p-type. ʻO nā pūnaewele n-type ka nui o nā pūnaewele monocrystalline TOPCon, nā pūnaewele monocrystalline HJT a me nā pūnaewele monocrystalline IBC. I ka makahiki 2021, e hoʻomau ʻia nā laina hana nui hou e ka PERC cell production line, a e piʻi hou ka mākeke o nā cell PERC i 91.2%. E like me ka koi ʻana o ka huahana no nā papahana o waho a me ka home i nā huahana kiʻekiʻe, e hāʻule ka mākeke o nā pā BSF mai 8.8% a 5% i 2021.
1.4. Modules: ʻO ke kumukūʻai o nā pūnaewele e pili ana i ka hapa nui, a ʻo ka mana o nā modula e pili ana i nā cell
ʻO nā ʻanuʻu hana o nā modula photovoltaic ka mea nui e pili ana i ka pilina pūnaewele a me ka lamination, a ʻo nā cell e helu i kahi hapa nui o ka huina kālā o ka module. No ka mea he liʻiliʻi loa ke ʻano a me ka volta o ke kelepona hoʻokahi, pono e hoʻopili ʻia nā kelepona ma o nā kaʻa kaʻa. Maʻaneʻi, ua hoʻohuiʻia lākou i ka moʻo e hoʻonui i ka volta, a laila e hoʻohui like i ka loaʻaʻana o ke kiʻekiʻe o kēia manawa, a laila ua hoʻopaʻaʻia ke aniani photovoltaic, EVA a iʻole POE, pahu pahu, EVA a iʻole POE, ua hoʻopaʻaʻia ka pepa hope a hoʻopaʻaʻia ka wela i kekahi kauoha. , a ua pale ʻia e ka pahu alumini a me ka lihi hoʻopaʻa silicone. Mai ka hiʻohiʻona o ka hoʻohui ʻana i nā kumu kūʻai hana, ʻo ke kumukūʻai waiwai no 75%, e noho ana i ke kūlana nui, a ukali ʻia e ke kumukūʻai hana, ke kumukūʻai hana a me ka uku hana. ʻO ke kumukūʻai o nā mea e alakaʻiʻia e ke kumukūʻai o nā pūnaewele. Wahi a nā hoʻolaha mai nā ʻoihana he nui, ʻike nā cell ma kahi o 2/3 o ka nui o nā kumukūʻai o nā modula photovoltaic.
Hoʻokaʻawale pinepine ʻia nā modula Photovoltaic e like me ke ʻano cell, ka nui, a me ka nui. Aia nā ʻokoʻa i ka mana o nā modula like ʻole, akā aia lākou a pau i ka piʻi ʻana. ʻO ka mana he hōʻailona koʻikoʻi o nā modula photovoltaic, e hōʻike ana i ka hiki o ka module ke hoʻololi i ka ikehu o ka lā i uila. Hiki keʻikeʻia mai nāʻikepili mana o nāʻano likeʻole o nā modula photovoltaic i ka wā e like ai ka nui a me ka helu o nā pūnaewele i loko o ka module,ʻo ka mana o ka module he n-type single crystal > p-type single crystal > polycrystalline; ʻO ka nui a me ka nui, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka mana o ka module; no ka TOPCon hoʻokahi crystal modules a me heterojunction modules o ka hoʻohālikelike like, ʻoi aku ka mana o ka hope ma mua o ka mua. Wahi a ka wānana CPIA, e hoʻonui ʻia ka mana module e 5-10W i kēlā me kēia makahiki i nā makahiki e hiki mai ana. Eia kekahi, e lawe mai ka ʻeke module i kekahi poho mana, ʻo ia hoʻi me ka nalowale optical a me ka nalowale uila. ʻO ka mea mua ma muli o ka transmittance a me ka optical mismatch o nā mea hoʻopihapiha e like me ke aniani photovoltaic a me ka EVA, a ʻo ka mea hope e pili ana i ka hoʻohana ʻana i nā cell solar i ka series. ʻO ka poho kaapuni ma muli o ke kūʻē ʻana o ka lipine welding a me ka pahu kaʻa ponoʻī, a me ka nalowale o ka mismatch i kēia manawa ma muli o ka hoʻopili like ʻana o nā cell, ʻo ka pau ʻana o ka mana o nā helu ʻelua ma kahi o 8%.
1.5. Hiki ke hoʻokomo i ka Photovoltaic: ʻO nā kulekele o nā ʻāina like ʻole ke alakaʻi ʻia, a he wahi nui no ka hiki ke hoʻokomo hou i ka wā e hiki mai ana.
Ua ʻae ka honua i ka ʻae ʻana no ka neʻe ʻana o ka net zero ma lalo o ka pahuhopu palekana kaiapuni, a ua puka mālie ka waiwai o nā papahana photovoltaic superimposed. Ke ʻimi nei nā ʻāina i ka hoʻomohala ʻana i ka mana o ka ikehu hou. I nā makahiki i hala iho nei, ua hoʻohiki nā ʻāina a puni ka honua e hōʻemi i ka hoʻoiho kalapona. ʻO ka hapa nui o nā mea hoʻokuʻu kinoea hoʻomehana honua i hoʻokumu i nā pahuhopu ikehu hiki ke hoʻololi ʻia, a nui ka mana i hoʻokomo ʻia o ka ikehu hou. Ma muli o ka 1.5 ℃ ka mana hoʻomalu wela, wānana ʻo IRENA e hiki i ka mana o ka ikehu hou i hoʻokomo ʻia i ka honua e hiki i 10.8TW i 2030. Eia kekahi, e like me ka WOODMac data, ke kumu kūʻai o ka uila (LCOE) o ka hana mana o ka lā ma Kina, India, ʻO ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa a me nā ʻāina ʻē aʻe i haʻahaʻa ma mua o ka ikehu fossil loa, a e emi hou ana i ka wā e hiki mai ana. ʻO ka hoʻolaha ikaika ʻana o nā kulekele ma nā ʻāina like ʻole a me ka hoʻokele waiwai o ka hana mana photovoltaic ua alakaʻi i ka hoʻonui mau ʻana i ka hiki ke hoʻokomo ʻia o nā photovoltaics ma ka honua a me Kina i nā makahiki i hala. Mai ka 2012 a hiki i 2021, e hoʻonui ʻia ka nui o nā photovoltaics ma ka honua mai 104.3GW a i 849.5GW, a e hoʻonui ʻia ka nui o nā photovoltaics ma Kina mai 6.7GW a i 307GW, he piʻi o 44 mau manawa. Eia kekahi, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka mana photovoltaic hou o Kina ma mua o 20% o ka nui o ka mana i hoʻokomo ʻia. I ka makahiki 2021, ʻo 53GW ka mana photovoltaic hou i hoʻokomo ʻia, e helu ana ma kahi o 40% o ka mana hou o ka honua. ʻO ke kumu nui kēia ma muli o ka hāʻawi nui ʻana a me ka like ʻole o nā kumu waiwai māmā ma Kina, nā mea i kūkulu maikaʻi ʻia i uka a i lalo, a me ke kākoʻo ikaika o nā kulekele aupuni. I loko o kēia manawa, ua hoʻokani nui ʻo Kina i ka hana mana photovoltaic, a ʻo ka nui o ka hiki ke hoʻokomo ʻia ma lalo o 6.5%. lele i 36.14%.
Ma muli o ka nānā ʻana i luna, ua hāʻawi ʻo CPIA i ka wānana no nā hoʻonohonoho photovoltaic hou i hoʻonui ʻia mai 2022 a 2030 a puni ka honua. Ua manaʻo ʻia aia ma lalo o nā kūlana optimistic a conservative, ʻo ka mana o ka honua i hoʻokomo hou ʻia i ka makahiki 2030 he 366 a me 315GW kēlā me kēia, a ʻo ka mana hou o Kina he 128. , 105GW. Ma lalo e wānana mākou i ka noi no ka polysilicon e pili ana i ka nui o ka mana hou i hoʻokomo ʻia i kēlā me kēia makahiki.
1.6. Koi wanana o polysilicon no ka photovoltaic noi
Mai 2022 a 2030, e pili ana i ka wanana a CPIA no ka honua hou i hoʻonui ʻia i nā hoʻonohonoho PV ma lalo o nā hiʻohiʻona optimistic a conservative, hiki ke wānana ke koi no ka polysilicon no nā noi PV. ʻO nā kelepona kahi hana koʻikoʻi e ʻike ai i ka hoʻololi ʻana o ka photoelectric, a ʻo nā wafers silicon ke kumu kumu o nā cell a me ke kahawai i lalo o ka polysilicon, no laila he mea nui ia o ka wānana noi polysilicon. Hiki ke helu ʻia ka helu kaumaha o nā ʻāpana no ka kilokani o nā koʻokoʻo silika a me nā ingots mai ka helu o nā ʻāpana no ka kilokani a me ka māhele mākeke o nā lāʻau silikona a me nā ingots. A laila, e like me ka mana a me ka mākeke o nā wafers silicon o nā ʻano nui like ʻole, hiki ke loaʻa ka mana kaumaha o nā wafer silika, a laila hiki ke koho ʻia ka nui o nā wafers silicon e like me ka mana photovoltaic hou i hoʻokomo ʻia. Ma hope aʻe, hiki ke loaʻa ke kaumaha o nā koʻokoʻo silika a me nā ingots e like me ka pilina nui ma waena o ka helu o nā wafers silicon a me ka helu kaumaha o nā koʻokoʻo silicon a me nā silicon ingots no ka kilo. Hoʻohui hou ʻia me ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka silika paona o nā lāʻau silicon / silicon ingots, hiki ke loaʻa ke koi no ka polysilicon no ka mana photovoltaic hou i hoʻokomo ʻia. Wahi a nā hopena wānana, e piʻi mau ana ka noi honua no polysilicon no nā hoʻonohonoho photovoltaic hou i nā makahiki ʻelima i hala iho nei, e piʻi ana i ka 2027, a laila e emi iki i nā makahiki ʻekolu e hiki mai ana. Ua manaʻo ʻia ma lalo o nā kūlana optimistic a conservative i 2025, ʻo ka noi makahiki honua no ka polysilicon no nā hoʻonohonoho photovoltaic he 1,108,900 tons a me 907,800 tons i kēlā me kēia, a ʻo ke koi honua no polysilicon no nā noi photovoltaic i 2030 e lilo i 1,042,100 ma lalo o ka optimistic a me nā kūlana conservative. . , 896,900 tona. Wahi a Kinaka māhele o ka mana photovoltaic honua i hoʻokomo ʻia,ʻO ke koi o Kina no ka polysilicon no ka hoʻohana photovoltaic i 2025manaʻo ʻia ʻo 369,600 tons a me 302,600 tons ma lalo o nā kūlana optimistic a conservative, a me 739,300 tons a me 605,200 tons ma waho.
2, Ke koi hope Semiconductor: ʻOi aku ka liʻiliʻi o ka pālākiō ma mua o ke koi i ke kahua photovoltaic, a hiki ke manaʻo ʻia ka ulu ʻana o ka wā e hiki mai ana.
Ma waho aʻe o ka hanaʻana i nā pūnaewele photovoltaic, hiki ke hoʻohanaʻia ka polysilicon ma keʻano he mea maka no ka hanaʻana i nā'āpana a hoʻohanaʻia i loko o ke kahua semiconductor, hiki ke hoʻokaʻawaleʻia i loko o ka hana kaʻa kaʻa, nā meaʻenehanaʻoihana, nā leka uila, nā mea hana hale a me nā mea'ē aʻe. Hoʻokaʻawale ʻia ke kaʻina hana mai polysilicon a chip i ʻekolu mau ʻanuʻu. ʻO ka mua, ua huki ʻia ka polysilicon i loko o nā ingots silicon monocrystalline, a laila ʻoki ʻia i loko o nā wafers silika lahilahi. Hoʻokumu ʻia nā wafers silikon ma o ke ʻano o ka wili, chamfering a me ka hana polishing. , ʻo ia ke kumu kumu o ka hale hana semiconductor. ʻO ka hope, ʻoki ʻia ka wafer silika a kālai ʻia ka laser i loko o nā hale kaapuni like ʻole e hana i nā huahana chip me kekahi mau ʻano. ʻO nā wafer silika maʻamau ka nui o nā wafers i poni ʻia, nā wafers epitaxial a me nā wafers SOI. ʻO ka wafer polished kahi mea hana chip me ka palahalaha kiʻekiʻe i loaʻa ma ka hoʻoliʻiliʻi ʻana i ka wafer silika e wehe i ka papa i poino ma luna o ka ʻili, hiki ke hoʻohana pololei ʻia e hana i nā ʻāpana, nā wafers epitaxial a me nā wafer silicon SOI. Loaʻa nā wafers epitaxial e ka ulu epitaxial o nā wafer i poni ʻia, ʻoiai ua hana ʻia nā wafers silicon SOI e ka hoʻopaʻa ʻana a i ʻole ka hoʻokomo ʻana i ka ion ma luna o nā substrates wafer poni, a paʻakikī ke kaʻina hana.
Ma o ke koi ʻana no ka polysilicon ma ka ʻaoʻao semiconductor i 2021, i hui pū ʻia me ka wānana o ke keʻena o ka ulu ʻana o ka ʻoihana semiconductor i nā makahiki e hiki mai ana, hiki ke hoʻohālikelike ʻia ke koi no ka polysilicon i ka semiconductor field mai 2022 a 2025. I ka makahiki 2021, e helu ʻia ka hana polysilicon electronic-grade honua ma kahi o 6% o ka nui o ka polysilicon production, a ʻo ka polysilicon solar-grade a me ka silicon granular e helu ma kahi o 94%. Hoʻohana ʻia ka hapa nui o ka polysilicon uila ma ke kahua semiconductor, a hoʻohana maoli ʻia nā polysilicon ʻē aʻe i ka ʻoihana photovoltaic. . No laila, hiki ke manaʻo ʻia ʻo ka nui o ka polysilicon i hoʻohana ʻia i ka ʻoihana semiconductor ma 2021 ma kahi o 37,000 tons. Eia kekahi, e like me ka ulu ʻana o ka hui semiconductor e hiki mai ana i wānana ʻia e FortuneBusiness Insights, e piʻi ka noi no ka polysilicon no ka hoʻohana semiconductor i ka makahiki o 8.6% mai 2022 a 2025. Ua manaʻo ʻia ma 2025, ke koi no ka polysilicon i loko o ka semiconductor kahua e ma kahi o 51,500 tons. (Ke kumu hōʻike: Future Think Tank)
3, Polysilicon lawe mai a hoʻokuʻu aku: ʻoi aku ka nui o nā mea lawe mai ma mua o ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana aku, me Kelemania a me Malaysia e helu ana i kahi kiʻekiʻe.
Ma 2021, ma kahi o 18.63% o ka noi polysilicon o Kina e hele mai mai ka lawe ʻana mai, a ʻoi aku ka nui o nā mea lawe mai ma mua o ka nui o nā mea hoʻopuka. Mai ka makahiki 2017 a hiki i 2021, ʻo ka hoʻokomo ʻana a me ka hoʻoiho ʻana o ka polysilicon e hoʻokele ʻia e ka lawe ʻana mai, ʻo ia paha ma muli o ke koi ikaika o lalo no ka ʻoihana photovoltaic i ulu wikiwiki i nā makahiki i hala iho nei, a ʻo kāna koi no ka polysilicon account no ka ʻoi aku o 94% o ka huina koi; Eia kekahi, ʻaʻole i mākaukau ka ʻoihana i ka ʻenehana hana o ka polysilicon electronic-grade kiʻekiʻe, no laila, pono e hilinaʻi kekahi polysilicon e koi ʻia e ka ʻoihana kaapuni hoʻohui i nā mea lawe mai. Wahi a ka ʻikepili o ka Silicon Industry Branch, ua hoʻomau ka emi ʻana o ka nui o ka lawe ʻana mai i ka makahiki 2019 a me 2020. ʻO ke kumu nui o ka emi ʻana o ka polysilicon imports ma 2019 ʻo ia ka piʻi nui o ka mana hana, i piʻi mai 388,000 tons ma 2018 a 452,000 tons. i ka makahiki 2019. I ka manawa like, OCI, REC, HANWHA Ua haʻalele kekahi mau hui o nā ʻāina ʻē, e like me kekahi mau hui o nā ʻāina ʻē, mai ka ʻoihana polysilicon ma muli o nā poho, no laila ʻoi aku ka haʻahaʻa o ka hilinaʻi o ka polysilicon; ʻoiai ʻaʻole i hoʻonui ʻia ka mana hana ma 2020, ua hoʻolōʻihi ka hopena o ka maʻi maʻi i ke kūkulu ʻana i nā papahana photovoltaic, a ua emi ka helu o nā kauoha polysilicon i ka manawa like. I ka makahiki 2021, e ulu wikiwiki ana ka mākeke photovoltaic o Kina, a ʻo ka ʻai ʻana o ka polysilicon e hōʻea i 613,000 tons, e hoʻohuli ana i ka nui o ka lawe ʻana mai. I nā makahiki ʻelima i hala iho nei, ʻo Kina ka nui o ka polysilicon import nui ma waena o 90,000 a me 140,000 tons, ʻo ia ma kahi o 103,800 tons i 2021. Ua manaʻo ʻia e noho mau ka nui o ka polysilicon import a Kina ma kahi o 100,000 tons i kēlā me kēia makahiki mai 2022 a 2025.
ʻO ka nui o nā mea hoʻokomo polysilicon o Kina mai Kelemānia, Malaysia, Iapana a me Taiwan, Kina, a ʻo ka nui o nā mea i lawe ʻia mai kēia mau ʻāina ʻehā e helu no 90.51% i ka makahiki 2021. Ma kahi o 45% o ka polysilicon imports mai Kelemania, 26% mai Malaysia. 13.5% mai Iapana, a me 6% mai Taiwan. Na Kelemania ka polysilicon giant WACKER o ka honua, ʻo ia ke kumu nui loa o ka polysilicon ʻē aʻe, ʻo ia ka 12.7% o ka nui o ka mana hana honua ma 2021; Loaʻa iā Malaysia ka nui o nā laina hana polysilicon mai South Korea's OCI Company, kahi i hoʻokumu ʻia mai ka laina hana mua ma Malaysia o TOKUYAMA, kahi hui Iapana i loaʻa iā OCI. Aia nā hale hana a me kekahi mau hale hana i neʻe ai ʻo OCI mai South Korea i Malaysia. ʻO ke kumu o ka hoʻoneʻe ʻana, ʻo ia ka hāʻawi ʻana o Malaysia i kahi hale hana manuahi a ʻo ke kumukūʻai o ka uila he hapakolu haʻahaʻa ma mua o ko South Korea; Ua loaʻa iā Iapana a me Taiwan, Kina TOKUYAMA , GET a me nā hui ʻē aʻe, e noho ana i kahi hapa nui o ka hana polysilicon. he wahi. I ka makahiki 2021, he 492,000 tons ka puka polysilicon, ʻo ia ka 206,400 tons a me 1,500 tons i ka mana photovoltaic hou i hoʻokomo ʻia, a ʻo ke koena 284,100 tons e hoʻohana nui ʻia no ka hoʻoili ʻana i lalo a lawe ʻia i waho. Ma nā loulou o lalo o ka polysilicon, ua lawe nui ʻia nā wafers silicon, nā cell a me nā modules, kahi i ʻike nui ʻia ai ka lawe ʻana i nā modules. I ka makahiki 2021, 4.64 biliona wafers silika a me 3.2 biliona pūnaewele photovoltaic i loaʻa.lawe ʻia aku i wahomai Kina, me ka nui o ka lawe ʻia ʻana o 22.6GW a me 10.3GW pākahi, a ʻo ka lawe ʻana aku i nā modula photovoltaic he 98.5GW, me ka liʻiliʻi loa o nā mea lawe mai. Ma nā ʻōlelo o ka hoʻohui waiwai hoʻoili, e hōʻea ana nā modula i 2021 i US $ 24.61 biliona, e helu ana no 86%, a ukali ʻia e nā wafers silicon a me nā pā. I ka makahiki 2021, hiki i ka 97.3%, 85.1%, a me 82.3% ka puka honua o nā wafers silicon, photovoltaic cell, a me photovoltaic modules. Manaʻo ʻia e hoʻomau ka ʻoihana photovoltaic honua i Kina i loko o nā makahiki ʻekolu e hiki mai ana, a ʻoi aku ka nui o ka hoʻopuka a me ka hoʻopuka ʻana o kēlā me kēia loulou. No laila, ua manaʻo ʻia mai 2022 a 2025, ka nui o ka polysilicon i hoʻohana ʻia no ka hoʻomaʻamaʻa ʻana a me ka hana ʻana i nā huahana o lalo a lawe ʻia i waho e piʻi mālie. Manaʻo ʻia e ka unuhi ʻana i ka hana o waho mai ka noi polysilicon o waho. I ka makahiki 2025, ʻo ka polysilicon i hana ʻia e ka hana ʻana i nā huahana o lalo e manaʻo ʻia e lawe aku i 583,000 Tons i nā ʻāina ʻē mai Kina.
4, Hōʻuluʻulu a me Outlook
ʻO ka noi polysilicon honua ka mea nui i ka mahina photovoltaic, a ʻo ka koi i ka semiconductor field ʻaʻole ia he kauoha o ka nui. ʻO ke koi no ka polysilicon e alakaʻi ʻia e nā hoʻonohonoho photovoltaic, a ua hoʻouna lohi ʻia i polysilicon ma o ka loulou o photovoltaic modules-cell-wafer, e hana ana i ke koi no ia. I ka wā e hiki mai ana, me ka hoʻonui ʻana o ka mana photovoltaic i hoʻokomo ʻia i ka honua, manaʻo nui ka noi no ka polysilicon. ʻO ka manaʻo maikaʻi, ʻo Kina a me nā ʻāina ʻē aʻe i hoʻonui hou ʻia i nā hoʻonohonoho PV e koi ai i ka polysilicon ma 2025 e 36.96GW a me 73.93GW kēlā me kēia, a ʻo ka noi ma lalo o nā kūlana conservative e hiki nō hoʻi i 30.24GW a me 60.49GW. I ka makahiki 2021, e paʻa ka lako polysilicon honua a me ka koi, e hopena i nā kumukūʻai polysilicon honua kiʻekiʻe. Hiki ke hoʻomau kēia kūlana a hiki i 2022, a huli mālie i ke kahua o ka hāʻawi ʻana ma hope o 2023. I ka hapa lua o 2020, ua hoʻomaka ka hopena o ka maʻi maʻi e nāwaliwali, a ua hoʻonui ka hoʻonui ʻana i lalo i ka noi no ka polysilicon, a ua hoʻolālā kekahi mau hui alakaʻi. e hoʻonui i ka hana. Eia naʻe, ʻo ka pōʻai hoʻonui o nā makahiki he hoʻokahi a me ka hapa i hoʻokuʻu ʻia i ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana i ka mana hana ma ka hopena o 2021 a me 2022, ka hopena i ka piʻi ʻana o 4.24% i ka makahiki 2021. Aia kahi hāʻawi o 10,000 tons, no laila ua piʻi nā kumukūʻai. ʻoi loa. Ua wānana ʻia ma 2022, ma lalo o nā kūlana optimistic a conservative o ka photovoltaic i hoʻokomo ʻia, ʻo ka hāʻawi ʻana a me ke koi ʻana e -156,500 tons a me 2,400 tons i kēlā me kēia, a e mau ana ka lako holoʻokoʻa i kahi kūlana pōkole. Ma 2023 a ma waho aʻe, nā papahana hou i hoʻomaka i ke kūkulu ʻana ma ka hopena o 2021 a me ka hoʻomaka ʻana o 2022 e hoʻomaka i ka hana a hoʻokō i kahi ramp-up i ka hiki ke hana. E hoʻokuʻu mālie ʻia ka lako a me ke koi, a ke emi iho nei nā kumukūʻai. I ka hahai ʻana, pono e nānā i ka hopena o ke kaua Lūkini-Ukrainian ma ke ʻano o ka ikehu honua, hiki ke hoʻololi i ka hoʻolālā honua no ka mana photovoltaic hou i hoʻokomo ʻia, e hoʻopili ai i ka noi no polysilicon.
(ʻO kēia ʻatikala no ka kuhikuhi wale ʻana o nā mea kūʻai aku ʻo UrbanMines a ʻaʻole ia e hōʻike i nā ʻōlelo aʻoaʻo kālā)