1, Buƙatar ƙarshen Photovoltaic: Buƙatar ikon shigar da hoto yana da ƙarfi, kuma ana juyar da buƙatar polysilicon dangane da hasashen ƙarfin da aka shigar.
1.1. Amfani da Polysilicon: DuniyaAdadin amfani yana ƙaruwa akai-akai, galibi don samar da wutar lantarki na photovoltaic
Shekaru goma da suka gabata, duniyapolysiliconAmfani ya ci gaba da hauhawa, kuma adadin kasar Sin ya ci gaba da fadada, wanda masana'antar daukar hoto ke jagoranta. Daga 2012 zuwa 2021, yawan amfani da polysilicon na duniya gabaɗaya ya nuna haɓakar haɓakawa, yana tashi daga ton 237,000 zuwa kusan tan 653,000. A shekarar 2018, an bullo da sabon tsarin daukar hoto na kasar Sin mai lamba 531, wanda a fili ya rage yawan tallafin samar da wutar lantarki. Sabuwar ƙarfin hoton da aka shigar ya faɗi da kashi 18% kowace shekara, kuma buƙatun polysilicon ya shafi. Tun daga shekarar 2019, jihar ta bullo da tsare-tsare da dama don inganta daidaiton grid na photovoltaics. Tare da saurin ci gaba na masana'antar hoto, buƙatun polysilicon kuma ya shiga cikin saurin girma. A cikin wannan lokacin, adadin yawan amfani da sinadarin polysilicon na kasar Sin a cikin jimillar abin da ake amfani da shi a duniya ya ci gaba da karuwa, daga kashi 61.5% a shekarar 2012 zuwa kashi 93.9% a shekarar 2021, musamman saboda ci gaban masana'antar daukar hoto na kasar Sin cikin sauri. Dangane da tsarin amfani da duniya na nau'ikan polysilicon daban-daban a cikin 2021, kayan silicon da aka yi amfani da su don sel na photovoltaic za su kai aƙalla 94%, wanda polysilicon mai darajar hasken rana da silicon granular ke da 91% da 3%, bi da bi, yayin da polysilicon-sa na lantarki wanda za'a iya amfani dashi don kwakwalwan kwamfuta yana da 94%. Matsakaicin shine 6%, wanda ke nuna cewa buƙatun yanzu na polysilicon yana mamaye photovoltaics. Ana sa ran cewa tare da ɗumamar manufar carbon-carbon dual-carbon, buƙatar ƙarfin shigar da wutar lantarki zai yi ƙarfi, kuma amfani da rabon polysilicon na hasken rana zai ci gaba da karuwa.
1.2. Silicon wafer: monocrystalline silicon wafer ya mamaye al'ada, kuma ci gaba da fasahar Czochralski tana haɓaka cikin sauri.
Haɗin kai tsaye na polysilicon shine siliki wafers, kuma a halin yanzu China ta mamaye kasuwar wafer silicon ta duniya. Daga shekarar 2012 zuwa 2021, karfin samar da wafer na silicon na duniya da na kasar Sin ya ci gaba da karuwa, kuma masana'antar daukar hoto ta ci gaba da bunkasa. Silicon wafers suna aiki a matsayin gada da ke haɗa kayan silicon da batura, kuma babu wani nauyi akan ƙarfin samarwa, don haka yana ci gaba da jawo hankalin manyan kamfanoni don shiga masana'antar. A cikin 2021, masana'antun wafer silicon na kasar Sin sun haɓaka sosaisamarwaiya aiki zuwa 213.5GW fitarwa, wanda ya kori samar da wafer silicon na duniya don haɓaka zuwa 215.4GW. Dangane da karfin samar da kayayyaki da aka samu da kuma sabon karuwar da ake samu a kasar Sin, ana sa ran karuwar karuwar shekara-shekara zai kiyaye kashi 15 zuwa 25 cikin 100 nan da 'yan shekaru masu zuwa, kuma har yanzu samar da wafer na kasar Sin zai ci gaba da kasancewa babban matsayi a duniya.
Za a iya yin siliki na siliki na polycrystalline zuwa ingots silicon polycrystalline ko sandunan silicon monocrystalline. Tsarin samar da polycrystalline silicon ingots ya ƙunshi hanyar simintin gyare-gyare da hanyar narkewa kai tsaye. A halin yanzu, nau'in na biyu shine babbar hanyar, kuma ana kiyaye adadin asarar a kusan kashi 5%. Hanyar yin simintin gyare-gyaren shine don narkar da kayan siliki a cikin kumfa da farko, sa'an nan kuma jefa shi a cikin wani injin da aka rigaya don sanyaya. Ta hanyar sarrafa ƙimar sanyaya, polycrystalline silicon ingot ana jefa shi ta hanyar fasahar ƙarfafa kwatance. Tsarin narkewar zafi na hanyar narkewar kai tsaye daidai yake da na hanyar simintin gyare-gyare, wanda aka narke polysilicon kai tsaye a cikin crucible da farko, amma matakin sanyaya ya bambanta da hanyar simintin. Kodayake hanyoyin guda biyu suna da kama da juna a cikin yanayi, hanyar narkewa ta kai tsaye tana buƙatar ƙwanƙwasa ɗaya kawai, kuma samfurin polysilicon da aka samar yana da inganci mai kyau, wanda ke haifar da haɓakar ingots na siliki na polycrystalline tare da ingots mafi kyau, kuma tsarin haɓaka yana da sauƙi. sarrafa kansa, wanda zai iya sanya matsayi na ciki na raguwar Kuskuren crystal. A halin yanzu, manyan kamfanoni a cikin masana'antar makamashin hasken rana gabaɗaya suna amfani da hanyar narkewa kai tsaye don yin polycrystalline silicon ingots, kuma abubuwan da ke cikin carbon da oxygen sun yi ƙasa da ƙasa, waɗanda ke ƙarƙashin 10ppma da 16ppma. A nan gaba, samar da polycrystalline silicon ingots har yanzu za a mamaye ta hanyar narkewa kai tsaye, kuma asarar hasara zai kasance a kusa da 5% a cikin shekaru biyar.
Samar da sandunan siliki na monocrystalline ya dogara ne akan hanyar Czochralski, wanda aka haɓaka ta hanyar narkewar yankin dakatarwa a tsaye, kuma samfuran da biyun suka samar suna da amfani daban-daban. Hanyar Czochralski tana amfani da juriya na graphite don zafi da silicon polycrystalline a cikin madaidaicin ma'adini mai tsafta a cikin tsarin thermal na bututu madaidaiciya don narke shi, sa'an nan kuma saka kristal iri a saman narke don haɗuwa, kuma a juya kristal iri yayin jujjuyawar. crucible. , crystal iri yana tasowa sannu a hankali, kuma ana samun silicon monocrystalline ta hanyar aiwatar da shuka, haɓakawa, jujjuyawar kafada, girman diamita daidai, da ƙarewa. Hanyar narkewar yanki mai iyo a tsaye tana nufin gyara kayan polycrystalline mai girma mai ƙarfi a cikin ɗakin tanderun, yana motsa murhun ƙarfe a hankali tare da tsayin polycrystalline kuma yana wucewa ta hanyar polycrystalline na columnar, da wucewar mitar rediyo mai ƙarfi a cikin ƙarfe. coil don yin Sashe na ciki na ginshiƙin polycrystalline ya narke, kuma bayan an motsa murɗa, narke yana sake yin ƙira don zama crystal guda ɗaya. Saboda hanyoyin samar da kayayyaki daban-daban, akwai bambance-bambance a cikin kayan aikin samarwa, farashin samarwa da ingancin samfur. A halin yanzu, samfuran da aka samu ta hanyar hanyar narkewar yankin suna da tsabta mai yawa kuma ana iya amfani da su don kera na'urorin semiconductor, yayin da hanyar Czochralski na iya saduwa da yanayin samar da silicon crystal guda ɗaya don ƙwayoyin photovoltaic kuma yana da ƙarancin farashi, don haka yana da tsada. hanyar al'ada. A cikin 2021, rabon kasuwa na hanyar jawo madaidaiciyar kusan kashi 85% ne, kuma ana tsammanin zai ƙaru kaɗan cikin ƴan shekaru masu zuwa. Ana hasashen hannun jarin kasuwa a cikin 2025 da 2030 zai zama 87% da 90% bi da bi. A cikin sharuddan gundumomi narke guda crystal silicon, da masana'antu taro na gunduma narkewa guda crystal silicon ne in mun gwada da high a duniya. saye), TOPSIL (Denmark) . A nan gaba, sikelin fitarwa na narkakkar siliki guda ɗaya ba zai ƙaru sosai ba. Dalili kuwa shi ne, fasahohin da ke da alaka da kasar Sin suna da koma baya sosai idan aka kwatanta da Japan da Jamus, musamman karfin na'urorin dumama mai saurin gaske da yanayin aiwatar da crystallization. Fasahar siliki guda kristal da aka haɗa a cikin babban yanki na diamita na buƙatar kamfanonin Sinawa su ci gaba da bincike da kansu.
Hanyar Czochralski za a iya raba zuwa ci gaba da fasahar jan kristal (CCZ) da fasahar ja mai maimaita crystal (RCZ). A halin yanzu, hanyar da ake amfani da ita a cikin masana'antu ita ce RCZ, wanda ke cikin matakan sauyawa daga RCZ zuwa CCZ. Matakan jan kristal guda ɗaya da matakan ciyarwa na RZC sun kasance masu zaman kansu da juna. Kafin kowane ja, dole ne a sanyaya ingot ɗin crystal guda ɗaya kuma a cire shi a cikin ɗakin ƙofar, yayin da CCZ na iya gane ciyarwa da narkewa yayin ja. RCZ yana da ɗan ƙaramin girma, kuma akwai ƙaramin ɗaki don haɓaka fasaha a nan gaba; yayin da CCZ yana da fa'ida na rage farashi da haɓaka ingantaccen aiki, kuma yana cikin matakin haɓaka cikin sauri. Dangane da farashi, idan aka kwatanta da RCZ, wanda ke ɗaukar kimanin sa'o'i 8 kafin a zana sanda guda ɗaya, CCZ na iya inganta ingantaccen samarwa, rage ƙimar ƙima da amfani da makamashi ta hanyar kawar da wannan matakin. Jimlar fitowar tanderu ɗaya ya fi 20% sama da na RCZ. Farashin samarwa ya fi 10% ƙasa da RCZ. Dangane da inganci, CCZ na iya kammala zanen sandunan siliki guda 8-10 guda kristal a cikin zagayowar rayuwa na crucible (awanni 250), yayin da RCZ na iya kammala kusan 4 kawai, kuma ana iya haɓaka haɓakar samarwa ta 100-150% . Dangane da inganci, CCZ tana da ƙarin juriya iri ɗaya, ƙarancin iskar oxygen, da raguwar tara ƙazanta na ƙarfe, don haka ya fi dacewa da shirye-shiryen wafers na siliki guda ɗaya na nau'in n-type, waɗanda kuma suke cikin saurin haɓakawa. A halin yanzu, wasu kamfanonin kasar Sin sun ba da sanarwar cewa suna da fasahar CCZ, kuma hanyar granular silicon-CCZ-n-type monocrystalline silicon wafers ya kasance a bayyane, kuma har ma sun fara amfani da kayan silicon 100% na granular. . A nan gaba, CCZ zai maye gurbin RCZ, amma zai ɗauki wani tsari.
Tsarin samar da wafers silicon monocrystalline ya kasu kashi huɗu: ja, slicing, slicing, tsaftacewa da rarrabawa. Bayyanar hanyar yankan wayar lu'u-lu'u ya rage yawan asarar yankan. An kwatanta tsarin ja na crystal a sama. Tsarin slicing ya haɗa da tsagewa, squaring, da ayyukan chamfering. Yanke shine a yi amfani da injin slicing don yanke silikon ginshiƙi cikin wafern siliki. Tsaftacewa da rarrabuwa sune matakai na ƙarshe a cikin samar da wafers na silicon. Hanyar yankan waya na lu'u-lu'u yana da fa'ida a bayyane sama da hanyar yankan turmi na gargajiya, wanda galibi ana nunawa cikin ɗan gajeren lokacin amfani da ƙarancin asara. Gudun wayar lu'u-lu'u ya ninka na yankan gargajiya sau biyar. Misali, don yankan wafer guda, yankan turmi na gargajiya yana ɗaukar awanni 10, kuma yankan wayar lu'u-lu'u yana ɗaukar kusan awanni 2 kawai. Asarar yankan wayar lu'u-lu'u shima kadan ne, kuma barnar da yankan wayar lu'u-lu'u ke haifarwa ya yi kadan fiye da na yankan waya na turmi, wanda ke da amfani wajen yanke wafern siliki. A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, don rage raguwar asarar da farashin kayayyaki, kamfanoni sun koma hanyoyin yankan wayar lu'u-lu'u, kuma diamita na sandunan bas din lu'u-lu'u yana raguwa da raguwa. A cikin 2021, diamita na bus ɗin wayar lu'u-lu'u zai zama 43-56 μm, kuma diamita na busbar wayar lu'u-lu'u da aka yi amfani da shi don wafern silicon monocrystalline zai ragu sosai kuma ya ci gaba da raguwa. An kiyasta cewa a cikin 2025 da 2030, diamita na busbars na lu'u-lu'u da aka yi amfani da su don yanke wafern siliki na monocrystalline zai zama 36 μm da 33 μm, bi da bi, kuma diamita na busbars na lu'u-lu'u da aka yi amfani da su don yanke wafern siliki na polycrystalline zai zama 51 μm. kuma 51 μm, bi da bi. Wannan shi ne saboda akwai lahani da ƙazanta da yawa a cikin wafern siliki na polycrystalline, kuma siraran wayoyi suna saurin karyewa. Saboda haka, diamita na busbar waya na lu'u-lu'u da ake amfani da shi don yankan wafer na siliki na polycrystalline ya fi girma fiye da na wafers na siliki na monocrystalline, kuma yayin da kasuwar siliki ta siliki ta fara raguwa a hankali, ana amfani da ita don silicon polycrystalline Rage diamita na lu'u-lu'u. bus din waya da aka yanka ta yanka ya ragu.
A halin yanzu, silikon wafers sun kasu kashi biyu: polycrystalline silicon wafers da monocrystalline silicon wafers. Monocrystalline silicon wafers suna da fa'idodi na tsawon rayuwar sabis da ingantaccen canjin hoto na hoto. Polycrystalline silicon wafers sun ƙunshi hatsin lu'ulu'u tare da daidaitawar jirgin sama daban-daban, yayin da wafers siliki guda ɗaya an yi su da silicon polycrystalline azaman albarkatun ƙasa kuma suna da daidaitawar jirgin sama iri ɗaya. A cikin bayyanar, wafers na siliki na polycrystalline da wafer siliki guda kristal sune shuɗi-baƙi da baki-launin ruwan kasa. Tun da an yanke su biyu daga polycrystalline silicon ingots da sandunan silicon monocrystalline, bi da bi, sifofin su ne murabba'i da murabba'i-square. Rayuwar sabis na wafers na siliki na polycrystalline da wafers silicon monocrystalline kusan shekaru 20 ne. Idan hanyar marufi da yanayin amfani sun dace, rayuwar sabis na iya kaiwa fiye da shekaru 25. Gabaɗaya magana, tsawon rayuwar wafers silicon monocrystalline ya ɗan daɗe fiye da na wafers silicon polycrystalline. Bugu da kari, monocrystalline silicon wafers suma sun ɗan fi kyau a cikin ingantaccen juzu'i na photoelectric, kuma ƙarancin rarrabuwar su da ƙazantattun ƙarfe sun fi na wafer siliki na polycrystalline. Haɗin tasirin abubuwa daban-daban yana sa ƴan tsirarun dillalai na rayuwan lu'ulu'u ɗaya ya fi sau da yawa sama da na wafers silicon polycrystalline. Ta haka yana nuna fa'idar ingantaccen juzu'i. A cikin 2021, mafi girman ingancin juzu'i na wafers na siliki na polycrystalline zai kasance kusan 21%, kuma na wafers na silicon monocrystalline zai kai zuwa 24.2%.
Baya ga tsawon rayuwa da ingantaccen juzu'i, wafers silicon monocrystalline suma suna da fa'ida ta ɓacin rai, wanda ke da amfani don rage yawan amfani da siliki da farashin wafer silicon, amma kula da haɓakar rarrabuwa. Siliccin wafers na siliki yana taimakawa rage farashin masana'anta, kuma tsarin slicing na yanzu na iya cika buƙatun bakin ciki, amma kauri na siliki dole ne kuma ya dace da buƙatun tantanin halitta da masana'anta. Gabaɗaya, kaurin wafern siliki yana raguwa a cikin 'yan shekarun nan, kuma kauri na siliki na polycrystalline yana da girma sosai fiye da na wafers silicon monocrystalline. Monocrystalline silicon wafers an ƙara raba su zuwa n-type silicon wafers da p-type silicon wafers, yayin da n-type silicon wafers yafi hada da TOPCon baturi da kuma amfani da baturi HJT. A cikin 2021, matsakaicin kauri na polycrystalline silicon wafers shine 178μm, kuma rashin buƙata a nan gaba zai sa su ci gaba da yin bakin ciki. Saboda haka, ana hasashen cewa kauri zai ragu kadan daga 2022 zuwa 2024, kuma kauri zai kasance a kusan 170μm bayan 2025; matsakaita kauri na p-type monocrystalline silicon wafers ne game da 170μm, kuma ana sa ran sauke zuwa 155μm da 140μm a 2025 da 2030. Daga cikin n-type monocrystalline silicon wafers, kauri daga cikin silicon wafers amfani da HJT Kwayoyin ne game da. 150μm, kuma matsakaicin kauri na nau'in nau'in silicon wafers da ake amfani da su don ƙwayoyin TOPCon shine 165μm. 135m ku.
Bugu da ƙari, samar da nau'in siliki na siliki na polycrystalline yana cinye mafi yawan silicon fiye da siliki na siliki na monocrystalline, amma matakan samarwa suna da sauƙi, wanda ya kawo fa'idodin farashin siliki na polycrystalline. Silicon Polycrystalline, a matsayin kayan aiki na yau da kullun don wafers na siliki na polycrystalline da wafers silicon monocrystalline, yana da amfani daban-daban a cikin samar da su biyun, wanda shine saboda bambance-bambance a cikin tsabta da matakan samarwa na biyun. A cikin 2021, yawan amfani da silicon na polycrystalline ingot shine 1.10 kg/kg. Ana sa ran cewa ƙarancin zuba jari a cikin bincike da ci gaba zai haifar da ƙananan canje-canje a nan gaba. Amfanin siliki na sandar ja shine 1.066 kg / kg, kuma akwai takamaiman ɗaki don ingantawa. Ana tsammanin ya zama 1.05 kg/kg da 1.043 kg/kg a cikin 2025 da 2030, bi da bi. A cikin tsarin ja na kristal guda ɗaya, ana iya samun raguwar yawan amfani da silicon na sandar jan ƙarfe ta hanyar rage asarar tsaftacewa da murkushewa, sarrafa yanayin samarwa sosai, rage yawan abubuwan da ake buƙata, haɓaka daidaiton sarrafawa, da haɓaka rarrabuwa. da fasahar sarrafa kayan siliki da aka lalata. Ko da yake yawan amfani da siliki na siliki na polycrystalline yana da girma, yawan kuɗin da ake samu na wafers na siliki na polycrystalline yana da tsada sosai saboda polycrystalline silicon ingots ana samar da shi ta hanyar zubar da ruwa mai narkewa, yayin da monocrystalline silicon ingots yawanci ana samarwa ta hanyar jinkirin girma a cikin Czochralski guda crystal tanderu. wanda ke cinye in mun gwada da babban iko. Ƙananan. A cikin 2021, matsakaicin farashin samar da wafers na silicon monocrystalline zai zama kusan yuan 0.673 / W, kuma na wafers na silicon polycrystalline zai zama 0.66 yuan/W.
Yayin da kaurin wafer siliki ya ragu kuma diamita na busbar waya na lu'u-lu'u ya ragu, fitowar silikon sanduna / abubuwan da ke daidai da diamita kowane kilogiram zai karu, kuma adadin sandunan siliki guda kristal masu nauyi iri ɗaya zai fi haka. na polycrystalline silicon ingots. Dangane da iko, ikon da kowane wafer siliki ke amfani da shi ya bambanta gwargwadon nau'i da girmansa. A cikin 2021, fitowar p-type 166mm size monocrystalline sanduna kusan guda 64 a kowace kilogram, kuma fitowar polycrystalline square ingots kusan guda 59 ne. Daga cikin nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in siliki na siliki guda ɗaya, fitowar sandunan murabba'in 158.75mm girman girman sandunan murabba'in murabba'in kusan guda 70 a kowace kilogiram, fitowar p-type 182mm girman sandunan murabba'in kristal guda ɗaya kusan guda 53 a kowace kilogram, da fitowar p. -nau'in 210mm girman sandunan crystal guda ɗaya a kowace kilogram kusan guda 53 ne. Abubuwan da aka fitar na mashaya murabba'in kusan guda 40 ne. Daga shekara ta 2022 zuwa 2030, ci gaba da sikanin wafers ɗin siliki ko shakka babu zai haifar da haɓaka yawan sandunan siliki/ingots na girma iri ɗaya. Karamin diamita na bus ɗin waya na lu'u-lu'u da matsakaicin girman barbashi shima zai taimaka rage yanke asara, ta haka yana ƙara yawan wafers da ake samarwa. yawa. An kiyasta cewa a cikin 2025 da 2030, fitar da p-type 166mm size monocrystalline sanduna kusan 71 da 78 guda a kowace kilogram, kuma fitowar polycrystalline square ingots kusan 62 da 62, wanda ya faru ne saboda ƙarancin kasuwa. Rabon polycrystalline silicon wafers Yana da wahala a haifar da gagarumin ci gaban fasaha. Akwai bambance-bambance a cikin ikon nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan siliki daban-daban. Dangane da bayanan sanarwar don matsakaicin ƙarfin 158.75mm silicon wafers kusan 5.8W / yanki, matsakaicin ikon 166mm girman wafers silicon shine kusan 6.25W / yanki, kuma matsakaicin ƙarfin 182mm silicon wafers shine kusan 6.25W / yanki. . Matsakaicin ikon girman wafer silicon shine kusan 7.49W / yanki, kuma matsakaicin ƙarfin 210mm girman wafer silicon shine kusan 10W/ yanki.
A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, silica wafers sun haɓaka a hankali a cikin babban girman girman, kuma girman girman yana taimakawa wajen ƙara ƙarfin guntu guda ɗaya, ta haka ne ke lalata farashin da ba na siliki ba na sel. Koyaya, girman gyare-gyare na wafers na silicon shima yana buƙatar la'akari da abubuwan daidaitawa sama da ƙasa da daidaitawa, musamman ma nauyi da manyan batutuwan yanzu. A halin yanzu, akwai sansani guda biyu a kasuwa game da makomar ci gaban girman girman siliki, wato girman 182mm da girman 210mm. Shawarar 182mm ya fi girma daga hangen nesa na haɗin gwiwar masana'antu a tsaye, bisa la'akari da shigarwa da sufuri na sel na photovoltaic, iko da ingancin kayayyaki, da haɗin kai tsakanin sama da ƙasa; yayin da 210mm ya fi dacewa daga yanayin farashin samarwa da farashin tsarin. Fitar da 210mm silicon wafers ya karu da fiye da 15% a cikin tsari na zanen sandar tanderu guda ɗaya, farashin samar da baturi ya ragu da kusan yuan 0.02 / W, kuma an rage yawan kuɗin aikin ginin tashar wutar lantarki da kusan 0.1 yuan/ W. A cikin 'yan shekaru masu zuwa, ana sa ran cewa za a kawar da wafers na silicon tare da girman da ke ƙasa da 166mm a hankali; matsaloli masu daidaitawa na sama da ƙasa na 210mm silicon wafers za a sannu a hankali warware su yadda ya kamata, kuma farashi zai zama wani muhimmin al'amari da ke shafar saka hannun jari da samar da kamfanoni. Saboda haka, rabon kasuwa na 210mm silicon wafers zai karu. Tsayayyen tashi; 182mm silicon wafer zai zama babban girman girma a kasuwa ta hanyar fa'idarsa a cikin samarwa a tsaye, amma tare da ci gaban ci gaban fasahar aikace-aikacen silicon wafer na 210mm, 182mm zai ba shi hanya. Bugu da kari, yana da wahala a yi amfani da wafern siliki mai girma da yawa a kasuwa a cikin 'yan shekaru masu zuwa, saboda farashin aiki da haɗarin shigar manyan wafers ɗin siliki zai ƙaru sosai, wanda ke da wahala a biya shi ta hanyar tanadi a cikin farashin samarwa da farashin tsarin. . A cikin 2021, girman silicon wafer a kasuwa sun haɗa da 156.75mm, 157mm, 158.75mm, 166mm, 182mm, 210mm, da dai sauransu. ya ragu zuwa 5%, wanda sannu a hankali za a maye gurbinsa a nan gaba; 166mm shine mafi girman girman bayani wanda za'a iya haɓakawa don layin samar da baturi na yanzu, wanda zai zama mafi girma a cikin shekaru biyu da suka gabata. Dangane da girman mika mulki, ana sa ran kasuwar kasuwar za ta kasance kasa da kashi 2% a cikin 2030; Haɗin girman 182mm da 210mm zai kai kashi 45% a cikin 2021, kuma rabon kasuwa zai ƙaru cikin sauri a nan gaba. Ana sa ran cewa jimillar kason kasuwa a shekarar 2030 zai wuce 98%.
A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, kasuwar siliki ta monocrystalline ta ci gaba da karuwa, kuma ta mamaye babban matsayi a kasuwa. Daga 2012 zuwa 2021, adadin silicon monocrystalline ya tashi daga ƙasa da 20% zuwa 93.3%, haɓaka mai mahimmanci. A cikin 2018, wafers na siliki a kasuwa sune galibin wafers na siliki na polycrystalline, suna lissafin sama da 50%. Babban dalili shi ne cewa fa'idodin fasaha na wafers na silicon monocrystalline ba zai iya rufe ƙarancin farashi ba. Tun daga shekarar 2019, yayin da ingancin canjin siliki na monocrystalline silicon wafers ya zarce na siliki na polycrystalline, kuma farashin samar da wafers na siliki na monocrystalline ya ci gaba da raguwa tare da ci gaban fasaha, rabon kasuwa na wafers silicon monocrystalline ya ci gaba da karuwa, ya zama. na al'ada a kasuwa. samfur. Ana sa ran rabon wafers na siliki na monocrystalline zai kai kusan kashi 96% a shekarar 2025, kuma kasuwar siliki ta monocrystalline za ta kai kashi 97.7% a shekarar 2030. (Madogarar rahoto: Future Think Tank)
1.3. Batura: Batura na PERC sun mamaye kasuwa, kuma haɓakar batura na nau'in n yana haɓaka ingancin samfur
Matsakaicin tsaka-tsaki na sarkar masana'antar photovoltaic ya haɗa da sel masu ɗaukar hoto da ƙwayoyin hoto. Gudanar da wafers na siliki a cikin sel shine mafi mahimmancin mataki na fahimtar canjin hoto. Yana ɗaukar kusan matakai bakwai don sarrafa tantanin halitta na al'ada daga wafer silicon. Da farko, sanya wafer siliki a cikin acid hydrofluoric don samar da tsarin pyramid-kamar fata a samansa, ta haka ne ya rage hasken hasken rana da kuma ƙara haske; na biyu shine Phosphorus yana bazuwa a saman gefe ɗaya na wafer siliki don samar da haɗin PN, kuma ingancinsa kai tsaye yana shafar ingancin tantanin halitta; na uku shine don cire haɗin PN da aka kafa a gefen wafer siliki a lokacin matakin watsawa don hana gajeriyar kewayawar tantanin halitta; Wani Layer na fim din silicon nitride an rufe shi a gefen inda aka kafa haɗin PN don rage hasken haske kuma a lokaci guda ƙara haɓaka; Na biyar shine buga na'urorin lantarki na ƙarfe a gaba da baya na wafer siliki don tattara tsirarun dillalai da aka samar ta hanyar photovoltaics; Da'irar da aka buga a matakin bugu an yi shi ne kuma an kafa shi, kuma an haɗa shi da wafer siliki, wato tantanin halitta; a ƙarshe, ana rarraba sel masu tasiri daban-daban.
Kwayoyin silicon kristal yawanci ana yin su ne da wafern siliki a matsayin abubuwan da aka gyara, kuma ana iya raba su zuwa nau'in p-type da ƙwayoyin n-nau'i gwargwadon nau'in wafern silicon. Daga cikin su, nau'in nau'in n-nau'in suna da ingantaccen juzu'i kuma a hankali suna maye gurbin nau'in p-type a cikin 'yan shekarun nan. Nau'in siliki na P-type ana yin su ne ta hanyar doping silicon tare da boron, kuma nau'in siliki na nau'in n-nau'in ana yin su da phosphorus. Sabili da haka, ƙaddamar da ƙwayar boron a cikin nau'in silicon wafer na nau'in n-nau'i yana da ƙasa, don haka yana hana haɗin haɗin ginin boron-oxygen, inganta rayuwar tsirarun masu ɗaukar nauyin siliki, kuma a lokaci guda, babu wani hoto da aka haifar da attenuation. a cikin baturi. Bugu da kari, nau'in 'yan tsirarun dillalai ne ramuka, nau'in p-type 'yan tsirarun dillalai ne electrons, da kuma tarkon giciye na mafi yawan atom na ramuka karami fiye da na electrons. Saboda haka, tsirarun dillalai na rayuwan nau'in tantanin halitta n ya fi girma kuma ƙimar canjin hoto ya fi girma. A cewar bayanan dakin gwaje-gwaje, iyaka na ingancin canjin p-nau'in sel na 24.5%, da kuma yawan sel na n-nau'in sel suna wakiltar sel na fasaha na n-nau'in suna wakiltar shugabanci na fasaha na fasaha. A cikin 2021, nau'in nau'in n (wanda ya haɗa da ƙwayoyin heterojunction da ƙwayoyin TOPCon) suna da tsada mai tsada, kuma sikelin samar da tarin yawa har yanzu ƙanana ne. Kasuwannin kasuwa na yanzu kusan 3% ne, wanda yake daidai yake da na 2020.
A cikin 2021, za a inganta ingantaccen juzu'i na ƙwayoyin n-type, kuma ana sa ran za a sami ƙarin sarari don ci gaban fasaha a cikin shekaru biyar masu zuwa. A cikin 2021, babban sikelin samar da nau'in p-type monocrystalline sel za su yi amfani da fasahar PERC, kuma matsakaicin ingantaccen juzu'i zai kai 23.1%, karuwar maki 0.3 bisa dari idan aka kwatanta da 2020; ingantaccen juzu'i na sel silicon baki na polycrystalline ta amfani da fasahar PERC zai kai 21.0%, idan aka kwatanta da 2020. karuwa na shekara-shekara na maki 0.2; na al'ada polycrystalline baki silicon cell inganta ingancin ingancin ba shi da karfi, da canji yadda ya dace a 2021 zai zama game da 19.5%, kawai 0.1 kashi mafi girma, kuma nan gaba yadda ya dace inganta sarari yana da iyaka; Matsakaicin ingantaccen juzu'i na ingot monocrystalline PERC sel shine 22.4%, wanda shine maki 0.7 ƙasa da na sel monocrystalline PERC; Matsakaicin ƙarfin juzu'i na ƙwayoyin n-type TOPCon ya kai 24%, kuma matsakaicin ƙarfin juzu'i na sel heterojunction ya kai 24.2%, duka biyun an inganta su sosai idan aka kwatanta da 2020, kuma matsakaicin ƙarfin juzu'i na ƙwayoyin IBC ya kai 24.2%. Tare da haɓaka fasaha a nan gaba, fasahar batir kamar TBC da HBC na iya ci gaba da samun ci gaba. A nan gaba, tare da raguwar farashin samarwa da haɓaka yawan amfanin ƙasa, batir na nau'in n-nau'in zai kasance ɗaya daga cikin manyan hanyoyin haɓaka fasahar batir.
Daga mahangar hanyar fasahar baturi, sabunta fasahar batir ta fi dacewa ta hanyar BSF, PERC, TOPCon dangane da haɓaka PERC, da HJT, sabuwar fasahar da ke juyar da PERC; Ana iya ƙara TOPCon tare da IBC don samar da TBC, kuma ana iya haɗa HJT tare da IBC don zama HBC. Kwayoyin P-nau'in monocrystalline galibi suna amfani da fasahar PERC, nau'in nau'in nau'in polycrystalline sun haɗa da ƙwayoyin silicon baƙar fata na polycrystalline da ƙwayoyin ingot monocrystalline, ƙarshen yana nufin ƙari na nau'in lu'ulu'u na iri na monocrystalline bisa tsarin ingot na polycrystalline na al'ada, ƙarfi na jagora Bayan haka, square silicon ingot aka kafa, da kuma silicon wafer gauraye da guda crystal da polycrystalline da aka yi ta hanyar da jerin aiki matakai. Saboda da gaske yana amfani da hanyar shirye-shiryen polycrystalline, an haɗa shi a cikin nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in p-polycrystalline. Kwayoyin nau'in n galibi sun haɗa da ƙwayoyin TOPCon monocrystalline, ƙwayoyin HJT monocrystalline da ƙwayoyin IBC monocrystalline. A cikin 2021, sabbin layukan samarwa da yawa har yanzu za su mamaye layin samar da ƙwayoyin PERC, kuma rabon kasuwa na sel PERC zai ƙara ƙaruwa zuwa 91.2%. Kamar yadda buƙatun samfur na ayyukan waje da na gida ya mai da hankali kan samfuran inganci, rabon kasuwa na batir BSF zai ragu daga 8.8% zuwa 5% a cikin 2021.
1.4. Modules: Kudin sel yana lissafin babban sashi, kuma ikon samfuran ya dogara da sel
Matakan samarwa na kayan aikin hotovoltaic galibi sun haɗa da haɗin gwiwar tantanin halitta da lamination, kuma sel suna lissafin babban ɓangare na jimlar farashin ƙirar. Tun da halin yanzu da ƙarfin lantarki na tantanin halitta ɗaya ƙanana ne, ƙwayoyin suna buƙatar haɗuwa ta hanyar sandunan bas. Anan, an haɗa su a cikin jerin don ƙara ƙarfin wutar lantarki, sannan a haɗa su a layi daya don samun babban halin yanzu, sannan gilashin photovoltaic, EVA ko POE, Sheet baturi, EVA ko POE, takardar baya an rufe kuma ana matsa zafi a cikin wani tsari. , kuma a ƙarshe an kiyaye shi ta firam ɗin aluminum da gefen rufewar silicone. Daga hangen nesa na samar da kayan aikin kayan aiki, farashin kayan abu ya kai 75%, yana mamaye babban matsayi, sannan farashin masana'anta, farashin aiki da farashin aiki. Farashin kayan yana jagorantar farashin sel. Dangane da sanarwar daga kamfanoni da yawa, sel suna lissafin kusan 2/3 na jimlar farashin kayan aikin hotovoltaic.
Yawancin nau'ikan hotovoltaic ana rarraba su gwargwadon nau'in tantanin halitta, girma, da yawa. Akwai bambance-bambance a cikin ikon na'urori daban-daban, amma duk suna cikin haɓakawa. Ƙarfi shine maɓalli mai mahimmanci na kayan aikin hotovoltaic, wanda ke wakiltar ikon ƙirar don canza hasken rana zuwa wutar lantarki. Ana iya gani daga kididdigar wutar lantarki na nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan hotovoltaic cewa lokacin da girman da adadin sel a cikin module ɗin sun kasance iri ɗaya, ikon ƙirar shine n-type single crystal> p-type single crystal> polycrystalline; Girman girma da yawa, mafi girman ƙarfin tsarin; don TOPCon guda crystal modules da heterojunction modules na wannan ƙayyadaddun, ikon na karshen ya fi na tsohon. Dangane da hasashen CPIA, ikon module zai ƙaru da 5-10W kowace shekara a cikin ƴan shekaru masu zuwa. Bugu da kari, marufi na module zai kawo wani asarar wuta, musamman gami da asarar gani da asarar wutar lantarki. Na farko yana faruwa ne ta hanyar watsawa da rashin daidaituwa na gani na kayan marufi kamar gilashin photovoltaic da EVA, kuma na ƙarshe yana nufin amfani da ƙwayoyin rana a cikin jerin. Asarar da'irar da ke haifar da juriyar kintinkirin walda da mashaya bas kanta, da kuma asarar rashin daidaiton da ake samu a halin yanzu ta hanyar haɗin kai na sel, jimillar asarar wutar lantarki na biyu ya kai kusan kashi 8%.
1.5. Ƙarfin shigar da Photovoltaic: Manufofin ƙasashe daban-daban a fili suna motsawa, kuma akwai sararin samaniya don sabon ƙarfin da aka shigar a nan gaba.
Ainihin duniya ta cimma matsaya kan hayakin sifiri a karkashin manufar kare muhalli, kuma a hankali tattalin arzikin ayyukan daukar hoto ya fito a hankali. Kasashe suna binciken ci gaban samar da wutar lantarki mai sabuntawa. A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, kasashe a duniya sun dauki alkawuran rage hayakin carbon. Yawancin manyan masu fitar da iskar gas sun ƙirƙira madaidaitan maƙasudin makamashi masu sabuntawa, kuma ƙarfin shigar da makamashi mai sabuntawa yana da girma. Dangane da maƙasudin kula da zafin jiki na 1.5 ℃, IRENA ya annabta cewa ikon da aka shigar a duniya zai kai 10.8TW a cikin 2030. Bugu da ƙari, bisa ga bayanan WOODMac, matakin farashin wutar lantarki (LCOE) na samar da wutar lantarki ta hasken rana a China, Indiya. Amurka da sauran kasashe sun riga sun yi kasa da mafi arha makamashin burbushin halittu, kuma za su kara raguwa a nan gaba. Haɓaka aiki na manufofi a cikin ƙasashe daban-daban da tattalin arziƙin samar da wutar lantarki na photovoltaic ya haifar da ci gaba da haɓaka ƙarfin shigar da ƙarfin lantarki a duniya da Sin a cikin 'yan shekarun nan. Daga shekarar 2012 zuwa 2021, yawan karfin shigar da wutar lantarki a duniya zai karu daga 104.3GW zuwa 849.5GW, kuma karfin shigar da wutar lantarki a kasar Sin zai karu daga 6.7GW zuwa 307GW, karuwar sama da sau 44. Bugu da kari, sabon shigar da karfin daukar hoto na kasar Sin ya kai sama da kashi 20% na yawan karfin da aka shigar a duniya. A cikin 2021, sabon shigar da wutar lantarki na kasar Sin ya kai 53GW, wanda ya kai kusan kashi 40% na sabbin karfin da aka shigar a duniya. Wannan ya samo asali ne saboda yalwar albarkatun makamashi iri-iri a kasar Sin, da samun bunkasuwa mai kyau a sama da kasa, da goyon bayan manufofin kasa. A cikin wannan lokacin, kasar Sin ta taka muhimmiyar rawa wajen samar da wutar lantarki, kuma karfin da aka girka ya kai kasa da kashi 6.5%. ya canza zuwa +36.14%.
Dangane da binciken da ke sama, CPIA ta ba da hasashen sabbin abubuwan haɓakawa na hotovoltaic daga 2022 zuwa 2030 a duk faɗin duniya. An yi kiyasin cewa, a karkashin yanayi mai kyau da kuma na mazan jiya, sabon karfin da aka girka a duniya a shekarar 2030 zai kasance 366 da 315GW bi da bi, kuma sabon karfin da kasar Sin ta shigar zai kasance 128., 105GW. A ƙasa za mu yi hasashen buƙatun polysilicon bisa ma'aunin ƙarfin da aka shigar kowace shekara.
1.6. Hasashen buƙatun polysilicon don aikace-aikacen photovoltaic
Daga 2022 zuwa 2030, dangane da hasashen CPIA don haɓaka sabbin kayan aikin PV na duniya a ƙarƙashin yanayin kyakkyawan fata da ra'ayin mazan jiya, ana iya hasashen buƙatar polysilicon na aikace-aikacen PV. Sel wani muhimmin mataki ne don gane canjin hoto, kuma wafers siliki su ne ainihin albarkatun sel da kuma gangaren polysilicon kai tsaye, don haka yana da mahimmancin hasashen buƙatun polysilicon. Ana iya ƙididdige adadin ma'auni na guda ɗaya kilogiram na sandunan siliki da ingots daga adadin guda ɗaya kowace kilogram da rabon kasuwa na sandunan silicon da ingots. Sa'an nan kuma, bisa ga ikon da kasuwar kasuwar siliki na siliki masu girma dabam, za a iya samun ma'auni mai nauyin nau'i na siliki, sa'an nan kuma za a iya ƙididdige adadin da ake buƙata na siliki bisa ga sabon shigar da ƙarfin photovoltaic. Bayan haka, ana iya samun nauyin sandunan siliki da ingots da ake buƙata bisa ga alaƙar ƙididdiga tsakanin adadin wafern siliki da adadin ma'aunin siliki da silikon ingots a kowace kilogram. Ƙarin haɗewa tare da amfani da siliki mai nauyin siliki na siliki / siliki ingots, ana iya samun buƙatar polysilicon don sabon shigar da ƙarfin hoto. Dangane da sakamakon hasashen, buƙatun duniya na polysilicon don sabbin kayan aikin hoto a cikin shekaru biyar da suka gabata zai ci gaba da haɓakawa, yana ƙaruwa a cikin 2027, sannan ya ragu kaɗan cikin shekaru uku masu zuwa. An kiyasta cewa a ƙarƙashin kyakkyawan yanayi da ra'ayin mazan jiya a cikin 2025, buƙatun shekara-shekara na polysilicon don shigarwa na hoto zai zama ton 1,108,900 da ton 907,800 bi da bi, kuma buƙatun duniya don polysilicon don aikace-aikacen hotovoltaic a cikin 2030 zai zama 1,042,000 na ra'ayin mazan jiya. . , 896,900 ton. A cewar Chinarabon ikon shigar da hotovoltaic na duniya,Bukatar kasar Sin don polysilicon don amfani da hoto a cikin 2025ana sa ran zai zama ton 369,600 da ton 302,600 bi da bi a karkashin kyakkyawan fata da ra'ayin mazan jiya, da kuma ton 739,300 da tan 605,200 a kasashen waje bi da bi.
2, Ƙarshen buƙatun Semiconductor: Ma'auni ya fi ƙanƙanta fiye da buƙatun da ake bukata a filin hoto, kuma ana iya sa ran ci gaban gaba.
Baya ga yin sel na photovoltaic, ana iya amfani da polysilicon azaman albarkatun ƙasa don yin kwakwalwan kwamfuta kuma ana amfani dashi a cikin filin semiconductor, wanda za'a iya rarraba shi zuwa masana'antar kera motoci, kayan lantarki na masana'antu, sadarwar lantarki, kayan aikin gida da sauran filayen. Tsarin daga polysilicon zuwa guntu an raba shi zuwa matakai uku. Da farko, an zana polysilicon a cikin ingots silicon monocrystalline, sannan a yanka a cikin siliki na bakin ciki. Ana samar da wafers na siliki ta jerin ayyukan niƙa, chamfering da polishing. , wanda shine ainihin albarkatun masana'antar semiconductor. A ƙarshe, an yanke wafer ɗin silicon kuma an zana Laser a cikin sassa daban-daban don yin samfuran guntu tare da wasu halaye. Wafers na siliki na yau da kullun sun haɗa da wafers masu gogewa, wafers na epitaxial da wafers na SOI. Wafer da aka goge shine kayan samar da guntu tare da babban lebur da aka samu ta hanyar goge wafer siliki don cire ɓangarorin da suka lalace a saman, wanda za'a iya amfani dashi kai tsaye don yin kwakwalwan kwamfuta, wafers epitaxial da wafers silicon na SOI. Ana samun wafers na Epitaxial ta haɓakar epitaxial na wafers ɗin da aka goge, yayin da SOI silicon wafers an ƙirƙira su ta hanyar haɗin gwiwa ko sanya ion akan kayan wafer da aka goge, kuma tsarin shirye-shiryen yana da ɗan wahala.
Ta hanyar buƙatun polysilicon a gefen semiconductor a cikin 2021, haɗe da hasashen hukumar game da haɓakar masana'antar semiconductor a cikin ƴan shekaru masu zuwa, buƙatar polysilicon a filin semiconductor daga 2022 zuwa 2025 za a iya ƙididdigewa. A cikin 2021, samar da polysilicon na duniya na lantarki zai kai kusan kashi 6% na yawan samar da polysilicon, kuma polysilicon mai darajar hasken rana da silicon granular zai kai kusan kashi 94%. Yawancin polysilicon na lantarki ana amfani da su a cikin filin semiconductor, kuma sauran polysilicon ana amfani da su a cikin masana'antar photovoltaic. . Don haka, ana iya ɗauka cewa adadin polysilicon da aka yi amfani da shi a masana'antar semiconductor a cikin 2021 kusan tan 37,000 ne. Bugu da kari, bisa ga gaba fili girma kudi na semiconductor masana'antu annabta ta FortuneBusiness Insights, da bukatar polysilicon ga semiconductor amfani zai karu a shekara-shekara kudi na 8.6% daga 2022 zuwa 2025. An kiyasta cewa a cikin 2025, da bukatar don polysilicon a cikin filin semiconductor zai kasance kusan tan 51,500. (Madogararsa rahoton: Future Think Tank)
3, Shigo da fitarwa na Polysilicon: shigo da kaya da yawa sun wuce abin da ake fitarwa, tare da Jamus da Malaysia suna lissafin mafi girma
A cikin 2021, kusan kashi 18.63% na buƙatun polysilicon na kasar Sin za su fito ne daga shigo da kayayyaki, kuma yawan kayayyakin da ake shigowa da su ya zarce sikelin fitar da kayayyaki zuwa ketare. Daga 2017 zuwa 2021, tsarin shigo da fitarwa na polysilicon ya mamaye shigo da kaya, wanda na iya kasancewa saboda tsananin buƙatun masana'antar hoto da ta haɓaka cikin sauri a cikin 'yan shekarun nan, kuma buƙatunta na polysilicon ya kai fiye da 94% na jimillar buƙata; Bugu da kari, har yanzu kamfanin bai kware da fasahar samar da ingantaccen ingancin polysilicon na lantarki ba, don haka wasu polysilicon da masana'antar da'ira ke buƙata har yanzu suna buƙatar dogaro da shigo da kaya. Dangane da bayanan Reshen Masana'antar Silicon, yawan shigo da kayayyaki ya ci gaba da raguwa a cikin 2019 da 2020. Babban dalilin da ke haifar da raguwar shigo da polysilicon a cikin 2019 shine babban haɓakar ƙarfin samarwa, wanda ya tashi daga ton 388,000 a cikin 2018 zuwa ton 452,000. a cikin 2019. A lokaci guda kuma, OCI, REC, HANWHA Wasu kamfanoni na ketare, kamar wasu kamfanoni na ketare, sun janye daga masana'antar polysilicon saboda asara, don haka dogara da polysilicon ya ragu sosai; ko da yake ƙarfin samarwa bai karu ba a cikin 2020, tasirin cutar ya haifar da jinkirin gina ayyukan photovoltaic, kuma adadin umarni na polysilicon ya ragu a lokaci guda. A cikin 2021, kasuwar daukar hoto ta kasar Sin za ta bunkasa cikin sauri, kuma yawan amfanin da ake samu na polysilicon zai kai ton 613,000, wanda hakan zai haifar da karuwar shigo da kayayyaki zuwa koma baya. A cikin shekaru biyar da suka gabata, yawan silikon da kasar Sin ta shigo da shi ya kai ton 90,000 da 140,000, wanda kusan tan 103,800 a shekarar 2021.
Kayayyakin polysilicon na kasar Sin ya fito ne daga kasashen Jamus, Malaysia, Japan da Taiwan, China, kuma jimillar kayayyakin da ake shigowa da su daga wadannan kasashe hudu za su kai kashi 90.51% a shekarar 2021. Kimanin kashi 45% na kayayyakin da ake shigo da su daga kasar Sin na zuwa ne daga Jamus, kashi 26% daga Malaysia. 13.5% daga Japan, da 6% daga Taiwan. Jamus ta mallaki giant polysilicon na duniya WACKER, wanda shine mafi girman tushen polysilicon na ketare, wanda ya kai kashi 12.7% na yawan ƙarfin samarwa na duniya a cikin 2021; Malesiya tana da adadi mai yawa na layukan samar da polysilicon daga Kamfanin OCI na Koriya ta Kudu, wanda ya samo asali daga layin samarwa na asali a Malaysia na TOKUYAMA, wani kamfanin Japan da OCI ya samu. Akwai masana'antu da wasu masana'antu da OCI ta koma daga Koriya ta Kudu zuwa Malaysia. Dalilin ƙaura shi ne Malaysia tana ba da filin masana'anta kyauta kuma farashin wutar lantarki ya ragu da kashi ɗaya bisa uku na na Koriya ta Kudu; Japan da Taiwan, China suna da TOKUYAMA , GET da sauran kamfanoni, waɗanda ke mamaye babban kaso na samar da polysilicon. wuri. A cikin 2021, fitowar polysilicon zai zama ton 492,000, wanda sabon shigar da ƙarfin hoto da buƙatun samar da guntu zai zama ton 206,400 da ton 1,500 bi da bi, sauran tan 284,100 kuma za a yi amfani da su don sarrafa ƙasa da fitar da su zuwa ƙasashen waje. A cikin mahaɗin da ke ƙasa na polysilicon, wafers silicon, sel da kayayyaki galibi ana fitar da su, daga cikinsu fitar da kayayyaki ya shahara musamman. A cikin 2021, 4.64 biliyan silicon wafers da 3.2 biliyan photovoltaic sel sun kasance.fitar dashidaga kasar Sin, tare da fitar da jimillar 22.6GW da 10.3GW, kuma ana fitar da na'urorin daukar hoto na 98.5GW, tare da 'yan kadan daga kasashen waje. Dangane da abun da ke tattare da kimar fitarwa, fitar da kayayyaki a shekarar 2021 zai kai dalar Amurka biliyan 24.61, wanda ya kai kashi 86%, sai kuma wafer silicon da batura. A cikin 2021, fitarwa ta duniya na wafers silicon, sel na hotovoltaic, da na'urori na hoto za su kai 97.3%, 85.1%, da 82.3%, bi da bi. Ana sa ran cewa, masana'antar daukar hoto ta duniya za ta ci gaba da mai da hankali a kasar Sin cikin shekaru uku masu zuwa, kuma yawan fitarwa da fitar da kayayyaki na kowace hanyar sadarwa za ta yi yawa. Sabili da haka, an kiyasta cewa daga 2022 zuwa 2025, adadin polysilicon da ake amfani da shi don sarrafawa da samar da samfurori na ƙasa da kuma fitar da su zuwa kasashen waje zai karu a hankali. Ana ƙididdige shi ta hanyar rage abin da ake samarwa a ketare daga buƙatar polysilicon na ketare. A shekarar 2025, polysilicon da aka samar ta hanyar sarrafa kayayyakin da ke cikin ruwa za a yi kiyasin fitar da ton 583,000 zuwa kasashen waje daga kasar Sin.
4, Summary da Outlook
Bukatar polysilicon na duniya ya fi mayar da hankali ne a cikin filin hoto, kuma buƙatun a cikin filin semiconductor ba tsari ne na girma ba. Bukatar polysilicon yana motsawa ta hanyar shigarwa na photovoltaic, kuma a hankali ana watsa shi zuwa polysilicon ta hanyar haɗin haɗin hoto-cell-wafer, yana haifar da buƙatar shi. A nan gaba, tare da haɓaka ƙarfin shigarwa na hotovoltaic na duniya, buƙatar polysilicon gabaɗaya yana da kyakkyawan fata. Bisa ga kyakkyawan fata, Sin da kasashen waje sabbin sabbin na'urori na PV sun kara haifar da bukatar polysilicon a shekarar 2025 zai zama 36.96GW da 73.93GW bi da bi, kuma bukatu a karkashin yanayin masu ra'ayin mazan jiya zai kai 30.24GW da 60.49GW bi da bi. A cikin 2021, wadatar polysilicon da buƙatun duniya za su kasance masu tsauri, wanda ke haifar da hauhawar farashin polysilicon na duniya. Wannan yanayin na iya ci gaba har zuwa 2022, kuma sannu a hankali ya juya zuwa mataki na rashin wadata bayan 2023. A cikin rabi na biyu na 2020, tasirin cutar ya fara raguwa, kuma fadada samar da ruwa ya haifar da buƙatar polysilicon, kuma wasu manyan kamfanoni sun shirya. don fadada samarwa. Duk da haka, sake zagayowar fadada fiye da shekaru daya da rabi ya haifar da sakin karfin samar da kayayyaki a karshen 2021 da 2022, wanda ya haifar da karuwar 4.24% a cikin 2021. Akwai gibin wadata na ton 10,000, don haka farashin ya tashi. kaifi. An annabta cewa a cikin 2022, a ƙarƙashin kyakkyawan yanayi da ra'ayin mazan jiya na ƙarfin shigar da wutar lantarki, wadata da buƙatun buƙatu zai kasance -156,500 ton da ton 2,400 bi da bi, kuma gabaɗayan samar da kayayyaki zai kasance a cikin yanayin ƙarancin wadata. A cikin 2023 da bayan haka, sabbin ayyukan da aka fara ginawa a ƙarshen 2021 da farkon 2022 za su fara samarwa tare da samun ci gaba cikin ƙarfin samarwa. Kayyadewa da buƙata za su sassauta a hankali, kuma farashi na iya kasancewa ƙarƙashin matsin ƙasa. A cikin biyo baya, ya kamata a ba da hankali ga tasirin yakin Rasha-Ukrain a kan tsarin makamashi na duniya, wanda zai iya canza tsarin duniya don sabon shigar da kayan aiki na hoto, wanda zai shafi bukatar polysilicon.
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