1, Photovoltaic Endarshen buƙata: Iko don shigar da ƙarfin hoto yana da ƙarfi, kuma ana juyawa polysilicon wanda aka sauya dangane da tsinkayar ƙarfin
1.1. Amfani da Polysilicon: Duniya ta Duniyagirma yawan yana ƙaruwa a hankali, yafi ga protonvoltaic Power
Shekaru goma da suka gabata, duniyapolysiliconAmfani ya ci gaba da tashi, da kuma matsayin kasar Sin ya ci gaba da fadada, masana'antar masana'antu. Daga 2012 zuwa 2021, yawan amfani da Polysilon na duniya ya nuna a gaba ɗaya na gaba, tashi daga tan 237,000 zuwa kimanin tan 653,000 zuwa kimanin tan 653,000 zuwa kimanin tan 653,000. A cikin 2018, an gabatar da sabon tsarin hoto na 531 na kasar Sin, wanda a fili yake rage yawan tallafin don filin Powervoltaic. Sabon ɗaukar hoto mai ɗaukar hoto ya faɗi da shekaru 18% shekara, kuma ana buƙatar polysilicon. Tun daga shekarar 2019, jihar ta gabatar da manufofi da yawa don inganta Grid Parity Photovolteliins. Tare da saurin ci gaban masana'antu, buƙatun polysilicon ya kuma shigar da lokacin saurin girma. A wannan lokacin, da kashi na Polysilon amfani da Polysilon na kasar Sin a cikin jimlar yawan duniya ci gaba da tashi, daga 61.5% a cikin shekarar 2021, galibi saboda cigaban masana'antu cikin sauri. Daga hangen tsarin rayuwar duniya daban-daban na polysilicon a cikin 2021, kayan siliki wanda aka yi amfani da shi aƙalla 91%, wanda ke bi da shi, polysilon-aji polysilon wanda za'a iya amfani dashi don asusun kwakwalwa na 94%. Matsakaicin shine kashi 6%, wanda ya nuna cewa buƙatun na yanzu don Polysilicon yana mamaye Polysilicon. Ana tsammanin cewa tare da dumama na manufar carbon-carbon, buƙatun don ɗaukar hoto zai zama da ƙarfi, da kuma yawan amfani da Solar-aji Polysilicon zai ci gaba da ƙaruwa.
1.2. Silik Wafer: Monocrystalline Silicon Wafer Eaferuream, da ci gaba da fasahar Czochralski ta ci gaba cikin sauri
Haɗin haɗin kai tsaye na Polysilic ne Silicon Wafers, kuma China a halin yanzu suna mamaye kasuwar silicon duniya. Daga shekarar 2012 zuwa 2021, Silikon Silikawar Silikai na Sinanci da fitarwa sun ci gaba da ƙara, kuma masana'antar daukar hoto ta ci gaba da boom. Silicon Waivers suna ba da gada don haɗa kayan silicon da batura, kuma babu nauyi a kan ƙarfin samarwa, don haka ya ci gaba jawo hankalin kamfanoni da yawa don shiga masana'antu. A shekarar 2021, Masu samar da Siliki na Sinanci sun fadada sosaisarrafa kayaIkklisni zuwa 213.5GW fitarwa, wanda ya kori silicon na Silikon Waler don haɓaka zuwa 215.4GW. Dangane da yawan karfin samarwa da kuma karuwar karfin samarwa na shekara, ana kula da cewa, samar da 15-25% a cikin 'yan wasan na gaba, har yanzu samar da wafer na kasar Sin zai ci gaba da zama babban matsayi a duniya.
Za'a iya yin silicon Polycrystalliline a cikin girke-girken Polycrystalline ko kayan monocrystalline silicon. Tsarin samarwa na Polycrystalline mareot galibi ya hada da hanyar jefa hannu da hanyar Melting kai tsaye. A halin yanzu, nau'in na biyu shine babbar hanyar, kuma ana kiyaye kudin asarar kusan 5%. Hanyar simintin gyaran ita ce tana narkewa mai siliki a cikin mai da farko, sannan jefa shi a cikin wani preheated m don sanyaya. Ta hanyar sarrafa ragin sanyaya, Siliconstalline Silicon na Fasaha na Direba. Tsarin zafi na hanyar narkewa daidai yake da na hanyar sakin layi, wanda Polysilicon yana narkewa ne kai tsaye daga hanyar sakiya ta bambanta da hanyar sakin. Kodayake hanyoyi biyu suna da daidai a yanayi, hanyar Melting kai tsaye kawai yana buƙatar mai da ƙarfi, wanda zai iya yin matsayi mai kyau, wanda zai iya yin matsayin na ciki na ragewar kayan kwalliya. A halin yanzu, manyan kamfanonin masana'antar hasken rana gaba daya suna amfani da hanyar Melycrystalline ta kai tsaye don yin ƙananan abubuwan Polycrygen, waɗanda ake sarrafawa a ƙasa da 10ppa da 16ppraz. A nan gaba, samar da kayan Silicon na Silicon zai mamaye hanyar Melting kai tsaye, kuma farashin asarar zai ci gaba da kusan 5% a cikin shekaru biyar.
Samun kayan silicon silicon yafi bisa ga hanyar Czochralski, an inganta shi ta hanyar dakatarwar yankin dakatarwa ta tsaye, kuma samfuran suniyar da biyu suke da amfani daban-daban. Hanyar CZOHHRRRRRREKSKI ta yi amfani da juriya ta zane don yin zafi na polycryststalline a cikin tsarin tsafta a cikin tsarin da aka narke don murƙushe mai zafi. , an fitar da kristal a hankali zuwa sama, an sami silicon na monocrystalline ta hanyar aiwatar da seeding, amplification, cancantar haɓakawa na diamita, kuma gamawa. A tsaye na iyo na sama na iyo yana nufin gyara kayan kwalliyar polycrystalline a cikin murhun na karfe a hankali tare da maɓallin Polycrystalliline a hankali tare da a cikin COLYCrySalline Coil Coil ya narke, kuma bayan CIL ya motsa, narke maimaitawa don samar da kristal guda. Saboda matakan samarwa daban-daban, akwai bambance-bambance a cikin kayan aikin samarwa, farashin samar da ingancin kayan aiki. A halin yanzu, samfuran da samfuran da aka samu ta hanyar narkewa hanya suna da babban tsarkakakkiyar na'urorin, yayin da hanyar Czochralski za ta iya haɗuwa da hanyar samar da kayan kwalliya ta samar da kayan kwalliya. A cikin 2021, kasuwar kasuwar jan hanyar ja kusan kashi 85%, kuma ana sa ran zai karu kadan a cikin shekaru masu zuwa. Kasuwancin kasuwa a cikin 2025 da 2030 an annabta su zama 87% da 90% bi da bi. A cikin sharuddan gundumar narke guda lu'ulu'u na Silicon, maida hankali ne na gundumar Meling Siffon Silicon yana da girma a duniya. Sayo), topsil (Denmark). A nan gaba, fitarwa sikelin na Molten Silicon ba zai karu sosai. Dalilin shi ne cewa fasaiyoyin da suka shafi da suka shafi kasar Sin suna da-baya idan aka kwatanta da Jamus da Jamus, musamman damar samar da kayan aiki da yanayin tsari mai amfani. Fasaha na fushin siliki guda biyu a cikin manyan diamita na buƙatar masana'antar Sin don ci gaba da bincika su.
Za'a iya raba hanyar CZOHOCRRRRRRRRRREKI zuwa CIGABA DA FASAHA (CCZ) kuma maimaita Crystal Finware (RCZ). A halin yanzu, hanyar babbar hanyar a masana'antar ita ce RCZ, wacce ke cikin matakin canzawa daga RCZ zuwa CCZ. Guda ɗaya na crystal ya cire da ciyar da matakan RZC suna da 'yanci ga juna. Kafin kowane ruwa, Ingantaccen ingot guda ɗaya dole ne a sanyarot kuma dole ne a cire shi a ɗakin ƙofar, yayin da CCZ na iya fahimtar ciyarwa da narkewa yayin jan ciyarwa. RCZ ya girma, kuma akwai karamin dakin ci gaba a nan gaba; Yayin CCZ yana da fa'idodi na rage farashin da haɓaka ƙarfin aiki, kuma yana cikin mataki na ci gaba da sauri. Dangane da farashi, idan aka kwatanta da RCZ, wanda ke ɗaukar kimanin awanni 8 kafin a zana shi da yawa, CCZ na iya yin amfani da farashi mai ƙarfi da kuma amfani da makamashi ta hanyar kawar da wannan matakin. Jimlar fitarwa na wutar ƙarfi ya fi 20% sama da na RCZ. Kudin samarwa ya fi 10% ƙasa da RCZ. Dangane da ingancin aiki, CCZ na iya kammala zane na 8-10 guda na Silikelon sanduna a cikin rudanin rayuwar da aka gicciye (250), yayin da RCZ na iya ƙaruwa da 100, da kuma haɓaka samarwa na iya ƙaruwa da 100, kuma ana iya ƙaruwa da ingancin samarwa da 100, kuma RCZ na iya ƙaruwa da 100, kuma RCZ na iya ƙaruwa da 100, da kuma haɓaka samarwa na iya ƙaruwa da 100, da kuma haɓaka samarwa na iya ƙaruwa da 100, da kuma ƙarfin samarwa na iya ƙaruwa da 100, da kuma ƙarfin samarwa na iya ƙaruwa da 100, da kuma ƙarfin samarwa na iya ƙaruwa da 100, da kuma ƙarfin samarwa na iya ƙaruwa da 100, da kuma ƙarfin samarwa na iya ƙaruwa da 100, da kuma ƙarfin samarwa na iya ƙaruwa da 100, da kuma ƙarfin samarwa na iya ƙaruwa da 100, da kuma ƙarfin samarwa na iya ƙaruwa da 100, da kuma haɓaka samarwa na iya ƙaruwa da 100, da kuma ƙarfin samarwa na iya ƙaruwa da 100, da kuma haɓaka samarwa na iya ƙaruwa da 100, da kuma ƙarfin samarwa na iya ƙaruwa da 100, da kuma ƙarfin samarwa na iya ƙaruwa da 100, da kuma ƙarfin samarwa na iya ƙaruwa da 100, da kuma haɓakar samarwa. A cikin sharuddan inganci, CCZ yana da daidaitaccen daidaituwa, abun ciki na oxygen, da kuma sutturar ɗimbin baƙin ciki, don haka ya fi dacewa da shirye-shiryen n-type Crystal Silicon Wafe, wanda kuma a cikin lokacin ci gaba da sauri. A halin yanzu, wasu kamfanoni na kasar Sin sun sanar da cewa suna da kayan fasahar CCZ, da kuma hanyar silicon silicon waferins, kuma har ma ta fara amfani da kayan siliki 100% na silicon. . A nan gaba, CCZ zai maye gurbin RCZ, amma zai ɗauki wani tsari.
Tsarin samarwa na silicon sha siliki na monocronstalline ya kasu kashi hudu: ja, yanka, yanka, yanka, tsaftacewa da rarrabawa. Fitowar hanyar seling na lu'u-lu'u na lu'u-lu'u ya rage yawan yanka asarar asarar. An bayyana tsari na Crystal a sama. Tsarin slicing ya hada da truncation, squinging, da ayyukan chamfering. Sconing shine amfani da injin slicing don yanke columnar silicon a cikin silicon solers. Tsaftacewa da rarrabewa sune matakai na ƙarshe a cikin samar da siliki wa siliki. Hanyar da waya ta lu'u-lu'u tana da damar amfani a kan gargajiya ta gargajiya ta kayan lambu, wacce ake bayyana a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci da rashin asara. Saurin waya na lu'u-lu'u sau biyar ne na yankan gargajiya. Misali, don yankan wafer-wafer, gargajiya waya ta yankan yana ɗaukar kimanin awanni 10, da yanke lu'u-lu'u waya kawai yana ɗaukar kimanin awa 2 kawai. Rashin asarar lu'u-lu'u mai launi ma ƙarami ne, kuma lalacewar Layer wanda ya haifar da yankan waya na lu'u-lu'u. A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, domin rage asarar yankan yankewa da farashin samarwa, kamfanoni sun juya zuwa lu'ulu'u waya mai lu'u-lu'u yana ƙaruwa da ƙasa. A cikin 2021, diamita na waya mai busalan lu'u-lu'u zai zama 43-56 μm, da diamita na busassun waya mai amfani da silnonnyulers zai ragu sosai kuma zai ci gaba da raguwa. An kiyasta cewa a cikin 2025 da 2030, diamita na busassun waya na lu'u-lu'u zai kasance 51 μm, bi da bi μm da 51 μm, bi da bi μm, bi da bi guda 51. Wannan saboda akwai lahani da yawa da yawa a cikin polycrystalline siliki wa polycrystalline, da wayoyi na bakin ciki suna iya yiwuwa su lalace. Sabili da haka, diamita na busar waya ta busonond da aka yi amfani da ita don yankan polycrystalline ya fi girma a cikin diamicon wafer a hankali ta hanyar yanka ya ragu.
A halin yanzu, wa silicon da silinika galibi sun kasu kashi biyu: Polycrystalline silicon Wafers da monocrystalline silers wafers. Monocrystalline silicon afnants suna da fa'idodi na dogon rayuwa rayuwa da babban canjin canjin hoto. Polycrystalliline Silicon Wafers ya ƙunshi hatsi crystal tare da duban jirgin sama daban-daban, yayin da Silin Crystal Silicon da aka yi da kayan kwalliya na polycrystalline. A bayyanar siliki, polycrystalline silicon wafers da guda lu'ulu'u na Silicon Wafers shuɗi-baki da baƙar fata. Tunda aka yanke su biyu da aka yanke daga polycrystalline silicon da monocrystalline silicon sandes, bi da bi, da sifofi square da Quasi-square. Rayuwar sabis na Silicon Waficon Waferhoon da Monocrystalline silicon Wafers kusan shekaru 20 ne. Idan hanyar mai kunshin kuma amfani da yanayin amfani ya dace, rayuwar sabis ɗin na iya kai shekaru 25. Gabaɗaya magana, lifespan na monocrystalline silicon wafers ya fi tsayi fiye da na polycrystalline silikal wafers wafers. Bugu da kari, monocrystalline silicon wafer ma yana da kyau kadan a cikin canjin canjin PhycleCleCle, da rashin girman rashin karfinsu suna da karami fiye da wadanda silin polycrystalline. A hade tasirin dalilai daban-daban suna sa tsirarun tsirarun lu'ulu'u da yawa fiye da na Polycrystalline silikai. Game da shi nuna fa'idar canzawa. A cikin 2021, mafi girman canjin polycrystalline zai zama kusan kashi 21%, da na monocrystalline silicon wafers zai kai har zuwa 24.2%.
Baya ga tsawon rai da ingantaccen aiki, monocrystalline siliki wafer na kuma suna da fa'idar amfani da silicon da farashin wafer na silicon, amma kula da karuwar yanki. Thinning na silicon solers yana taimakawa rage farashin masana'antu, kuma tsarin yanka na yanzu dole ne ya cika bukatun selicon na ƙasa da kuma kayan masana'antu. Gabaɗaya, kauri da silicon wafers ya rage a cikin 'yan shekarun nan, da kauri daga polycrystalline ya fi girma girma fiye da na monocrystalline sils. Monocrystalline silicon Wafers gaba da rarrabuwa zuwa n-rubuta silicon wafers dapafers sun hada da amfani da batirin baturi da kuma amfani da baturin baturi. A cikin 2021, matsakaicin kauri daga Polycrystalline Silicon Waferan Waficon Wafer ne 178μm, kuma rashin bukatar nan gaba zai kore su don cigaba da bakin ciki. Saboda haka, an annabta cewa kauri zai rage dan kadan daga 2022 zuwa 2024, kuma kauri zai ci gaba da kusan 170μm bayan 2025; Matsakaicin kauri na P-Typenstalline siliki shine kusan 170μm da kuma 140 da 2030. Daga cikin nau'in siliki na n-rubuta silcon wafers shine 165μm. 135μ.
Bugu da kari, samar da Polycrystalline Silicon Wafers fiye da Monocrystalline silicon Wafants, wanda ya kawo sauki, wanda ya kawo masu arziki ga polycrystalline sils. Polycrystalline silicon, a matsayin kayan abinci na yau da kullun don silicon na Polycrystalline da monocrystalline silers, wanda saboda bambance-bambance ne a cikin tsarkakewa da matakai na biyu. A cikin 2021, yawan adadin Silycrystalline na Polycrystalline shine 1.10 kg / kg. Ana tsammanin cewa iyakancewar jari a bincike da ci gaba zai haifar da ƙananan canje-canje a nan gaba. Amfani da Silicon na jan sandar shine 1.066 kilogiram / kg, kuma akwai wani dakin don ingantawa. Ana tsammanin zai zama kilogiram 1.05 kilogiram / kg da kilogiram 1.043 a 2025 da 2030, bi da bi 2030. A cikin guda cristal cire tsari, rage yawan jan sanda za a iya cimma ta hanyar rage yanayin tsabtatawa, da inganta daidaitawar kayan sarrafawa, da inganta tsarin samarwa da kuma inganta tsarin samarwa da kuma inganta tsarin samarwa da kuma inganta tsarin samarwa da kuma inganta tsarin samarwa da kuma inganta fasahar sarrafa silicon kayan lalata. Kodayake ana yawan amfani da silicon na Polycrystalline Silicon Wafersalline an samar da gyaran Silicon da sauƙin girma Crycralski guda ɗaya cikin sauƙi na Silicon. Low. A cikin 2021, matsakaita farashin farashin siliki na monocrystalline zai kasance kusan 0.673 yuanLine zai zama 0.66 yuan / w.
Kamar yadda kauri daga cikin wafer wafer yana raguwa da diamita na busassun waya mai laushi, da adadin guda na silicon daidai gwargwado na irin nauyin Polycrystalline. A cikin sharuddan iko, wutar da kowane wafer wafer ya bambanta da irin nau'in. A cikin 2021, fitowar p-Type 166mm girman monocrystalline sanduna kimanin 64 a kilogram, da fitowar gutsoson polycrystalline ne kusan guda 59. Daga cikin P-Type guda Crystal Silicon Wafsure, fitarwa na 158.75mm girman P-Typorym, da fitowar P-Typal 120mm girma Side Crystal sandaly a kowace kiloan kilo kilo guda. Fitar da katangar murabba'i ne kusan guda 40. Daga 2022 zuwa 2030, ci gaba da thinning na silicon wafers zai yi shakka zai haifar da karuwa cikin adadin sandunan silin tsami / mawot na girma girma. Karamin diamita na diamond waya mai matsakaici da girman matsakaici zai taimaka rage rage asarar yankan, ta yadda ya kara adadin wasannin da aka samar. adadi. An kiyasta cewa a cikin 2025 da 2030, fitarwa na p-TypeStalline fannoni na 161 da kuma fitowar guda 61 da fitowar na kilogram, da fitowar su ne saboda ci gaba na silin Polycrystalline yana da wuya a haifar da mahimmancin ci gaba na Polycrystalline. Akwai bambance-bambance a cikin ikon nau'ikan nau'ikan da masu girma na siliki na wafers. Dangane da bayanan sanarwar don matsakaiciyar ikon 158.75mmonmon Wafers ne 5.8w / Silicon Power of 166mm Silicon Wafers ne kusan 6.25W / yanki. Matsakaicin ƙarfin silikawar silikon shine kusan 7.49w / yanki, da matsakaita iko na 210mm girman siliki shine kusan 100m / silsion.
A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, wa silicon da silikon sun ci gaba a hankali a cikin shugabanci babba, da kuma manyan girman suna dacewa da ƙara yawan adadin sel-slicon. Koyaya, girman daidaita silicon wafers kuma yana buƙatar la'akari da haɓakar haɓakawa da kuma matsalolin daidaitawa da kuma batutuwa na yanzu. A halin yanzu, akwai sansanoni biyu a kasuwa game da tsarin ci gaba na silicon mai girman silicon girman, wato girman 182mm girma da girman 210mm. Takar da 182mm galibi daga hangen ne na hadin kai na masana'antu na tsaye, dangane da la'akari da sel sel, iko da kuma inganci na kayayyaki da ƙasa; Duk da yake 210mm yawanci daga hangen nesan samarwa da farashin tsarin. Fitar da Silicon 210mmon Wafers shavers ya ƙaru da sama da 15% a cikin tsarin zane na wutar lantarki na wutar lantarki, da kuma jimlar farashin kayan baturin. A cikin 'yan shekaru masu zuwa, ana tsammanin silicon wafers tare da girman da ke ƙasa 166mm za a cire hankali a hankali; Matsalar da suka dace da matsalolin da suka dace da na 210mmonm za a magance su a hankali, kuma ana samun kuɗi mafi muhimmanci da ke haifar da saka hannun jari. Saboda haka, kasuwa raba 210mm silicon wafers zai ƙaru. Haushi; 182mm silder zai zama girman girmanam a kasuwa ta hanyar amfanuwa a tsaye a tsaye, amma tare da ci gaba da ci gaban aikace-aikacen aikace-aikacen a tsaye, 182mm silikon zai ba shi. Bugu da kari, yana da wahala mutane silikun silibon da za a yi amfani da su sosai a cikin kasuwar silikanta na gaba, saboda hadarin sa-kafi na tanadi da tanadin farashin kayayyaki da farashin kayan aiki. . A cikin 2021, masu yawa na siliki a kasuwa sun hada da 156,75mm, 156mm, da sauransu a cikin su, da girman 156.75mm, wanda aka maye gurbinsa zuwa ga 5%, wanda za'a maye gurbinsa a hankali. 166mm shine mafi girman mafita wanda za'a iya haɓakawa don layin samar da batir wanda zai zama mafi girma a cikin shekaru biyu da suka gabata. Dangane da girman canjin, ana tsammanin kasuwa zai zama ƙasa da 2% a 2030; Girman girman 182mm da 210mm za su yi lissafin 45% a cikin 2021, kuma kasuwar kasuwa zata ƙaru da sauri a nan gaba. Ana tsammanin cewa total kasuwa ta raba cikin 2030 zai wuce 98%.
A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, kasuwar kasuwar silicon ta ci gaba da ƙara, kuma ta mamaye matsayin babban matsayi a kasuwa. Daga 2012 zuwa 2021, da rabo daga silicon silicon ya tashi daga kasa da 20% zuwa 93.3%, babban karuwa. A shekara ta 2018, da silicon solers a kasuwa galibi sune galibi PolycrySalla Silicon Wafers, Asusun Fiye da sama da 50%. Babban dalilin shi ne cewa fa'idodin fasaha na monocrystalline silicon wafer ba zai iya rufe farashin farashin ba. Tun daga shekarar 2019, kamar yadda ingancin canjin daukar hoto na monicrystalline ya ci gaba da raguwa, da kuma kudin samarwa na Polycrystalline ya ci gaba da kara, ya zama babban kaso a kasuwa. samfurin. Ana tsammanin yawan adadin siliki na Monocrystalline zai kai kusan kashi 96% a cikin 206.7, da kuma kasuwa na 207.7% a cikin 2030. (Rahoton rahoton: Tank Tank.
1.3. Batura: Baturan Perc sun mamaye kasuwar, da kuma ci gaban batir na n-nau'in batir
Haɗin Midstream na sarkar masana'antu ya hada da sel Photovoltaic da hotunan daukar hoto. Aiki na silicon wafers cikin sel shine mafi mahimmancin mataki a cikin sanin juyawa na hoto. Yana ɗaukar matakai bakwai don aiwatar da tantanin al'ada daga wafer wafer. Da farko, sanya silicon wafer a cikin hydrofluorucluoric acid don samar da dunkulewar dala a farfajiya, don haka rage yawan hasken rana; Na biyun shine phosphorus a farfajiya daya na silicon wafer don samar da ingantaccen aikin tantanin halitta; Na uku shine cire Cubar PN wanda aka kirkira a gefen Silicon Wafer na Silicon lokacin yaduwar silsions don hana matsakaicin sel; Wani Layer na silicon nitride fim yana da alaƙa a gefe inda aka kafa filayen PN don rage haske don rage haske kuma a lokaci guda yana ƙaruwa sosai; Na biyar shine a buga wayoyin ƙarfe a gaban da baya na silicon wafer don tattara masu ɗaukar ƙananan hoto; Circir da aka buga a cikin matakin buga takardu kuma an kafa shi, kuma an haɗa shi da wafer wafer wafer, wato sel; A ƙarshe, sel tare da an rarrabe su daban-daban.
Yawancin sel silon yawanci ana yin su ne da siliki wa siliki a matsayin subcrates, kuma za'a iya raba su zuwa sel P-irin sel bisa ga nau'in siliki wa. Daga cikin su, sel irin sel suna da ingantaccen canzawa kuma suna canzawa sel p-nau'ikan shekarun. P-Rubuta siliki da siliki da aka yi ta hanyar da silicon tare da boron, kuma n-rubuta silicon solers an yi shi da phosphorus. Sabili da haka, taro na boron kashi a cikin n-rubuta silicon wafer yana ƙasa, kuma a lokaci guda, babu wani aiki na ɗan ƙaramin hoto a cikin batir. Bugu da kari, da 'yan tsiraru masu tsirarun kawuna sune ramuka, masu tsirarun p-nau'ikan marasa galihu sune wayoyin lantarki, kuma sashin giciye-sashe na shools na mafi girman zarra na zamba don ramuka. Saboda haka, tsiraran tsirariyar tsantaccen tsarin tantanin halitta shine mafi girma da kuma hotunan canjin hoto ya fi girma. A cewar bayanan dakin gwaje-gwaje, iyaka na ingancin canjin p-nau'in sel na 24.5%, da kuma yawan sel na n-nau'in sel suna wakiltar sel na fasaha na n-nau'in suna wakiltar shugabanci na fasaha na fasaha. A cikin 2021, sel na n-nau'in cuta (galibi ciki har da sel na heterojunction da sel Topoyan) suna da tsada mai yawa, kuma sikelin samarwa har yanzu yana kanana. Kasuwancin kasuwa na yanzu kusan kashi 3% ne, wanda yake ainihin daidai yake da hakan a cikin 2020.
A cikin 2021, da canjin canjin sel mai mahimmanci za'a inganta shi sosai, kuma ana tsammanin za a sami ƙarin ɗakunan ci gaban fasaha a cikin shekaru biyar masu zuwa. A cikin 2021, samar da sel na P-Type na Monocrystalline, da matsakaita na canzawa zai kai 23.1%, karuwar maki 0.3% idan aka kwatanta da 2020; Canjin Ingantaccen Silicon Black Silicon ta amfani da PRC Fasaha zai kai 21.0%, ana kwatanta shi da 2020. Shekarar maki 02. Ingantaccen Polycrystalline mai ƙarfi Silicon yana ba da ƙarfi, mai canjin canzawa a cikin 2021 zai kasance kusan 19.5%, mafi girma a gaba, da sararin samaniya na gaba, da haɓaka haɓaka 02%, yana da iyaka mai inganci. Matsakaicin canjin yanayin Ingot Monocrystalline perc sel sel na 22.4%, wanda shine maki 0.7 cikin dari maki ƙasa da na perclrystalline perc sel. Matsakaicin canjin sel Styen Sells ya kai 24% na canzawa na sel na heterojunction ya kai ga 24.2% canzawar sel na IBC ya kai 24.2%. Tare da ci gaban fasaha a nan gaba, fasahar batir kamar tbc da HBC na iya ci gaba da samun ci gaba. A nan gaba, tare da rage farashin samarwa da haɓaka yawan amfanin ƙasa, batir na n-nau'in ɗakunan ci gaba zai kasance ɗaya daga cikin manyan abubuwan ci gaba na fasaha na fasaha.
Daga hangen dabaru na fasaha, an sabunta kayan fasahar fasahar baturi da aka samu ta hanyar cigaba, kuma Hjt, sabuwar fasahar da ke juyawa; Ana iya ci gaba da Topcon tare da IBC don samar da TBC, kuma ana iya haɗa HjT tare da IBC ta zama HBC. Kwayoyin P-Monocrystalline suna amfani da fasahar PERC, ƙwayoyin P-Rubuta polycrystalline na Monocrystalline Polycrystalline tsari, kuma inganta silicon erafed Tare da kristal guda da aka yi ta hanyar polycrySline ta jerin matakan sarrafawa. Domin da gaske yana amfani da hanyar shirye-shiryen Polycrystalline, an haɗa shi a cikin sel na P-Type Polycrystalline. Kwayoyin halittar n-nau'in sun hada da sel na monocrystalline, sel na mono monocrystalline da sel na monocrystalline Ibc Monocrystalline. A shekarar 2021, har yanzu sabon layin samar da taro na perc zai mamaye 91.2%. Kamar yadda samfurin yake bukatar ayyukan waje da gida ya mai da hankali kan samfuran manyan kayayyaki, kasuwar kasuwar batir zasu ragu daga 8.8% zuwa 5% a 2021.
1.4. Kayayyaki: Kudin asusun sel don babban sashi, kuma ikon sel ya dogara da sel
Matakan samar da kayan kwalliyar hoto sun haɗa da katin tantanin halitta da lamation, da asusun tantanin halitta don babban ɓangare na jimlar farashin. Tun lokacin da na yanzu da ƙarfin sel guda ɗaya ƙanana ne, sel suna buƙatar haɗa su ta hanyar busasshiyar bas. Anan, an haɗa su a cikin jerin don ƙara ƙarfin lantarki, sannan kuma an haɗa gilashin baturin, eva ko poe, firam na aluminum da silicone secked baki. Daga hangen nesa na kayan aikin samar da kudade, asusun farashin abu na kashi 75%, mamaye babban matsayi, da farashin masana'antu da kuma farashin aiki. Farashin kayan ne ke jagorantar ƙwayoyin sel. Dangane da sanarwa daga kamfanoni da yawa, asusun tantanin halitta na kusan 2/3 na jimlar kayayyakin hoto.
Modulantattun kayayyaki yawanci ana rarrabe bisa nau'in sel, girman, da yawa. Akwai bambance-bambance a cikin ikon musanya iri daban-daban, amma duk suna cikin tashin matattu. Powerarfin mai taken hoto na hoto na hoto, wanda ke wakiltar ikon Module don sauya makamashi shellar cikin wutar lantarki. Ana iya ganinsa daga ƙuntayen wutar lantarki na nau'ikan nau'ikan samfuran hoto daban-daban wanda lokacin da girman sel iri ɗaya ne, ikon sel shine n-typal> P-Typealline. Mafi girma girman da yawa, mafi girma ikon module; Don Topcon Gudan Gristal Gudanar da Modules da kayan heterojunction na wannan ƙamus, ikon ƙarshen ya fi na na farkon. Dangane da hasashen CPIA, wutar Module za ta karu da 5-10w a shekara a cikin shekaru masu zuwa. Bugu da kari, kayan aikin Module zai kawo wani asarar iko, da yawa gami da asarar da wutar lantarki da asarar lantarki. Na farko shi ne sakamakon watsa abubuwa da kuma daidaitaccen rashin daidaituwa na kayan marufi kamar gilashin gilashin da Eva, kuma ƙarshen yana nufin amfani da sel na rana a cikin jerin. Losaiquit asarar lalacewa ta hanyar juriya na sabbin kayan walƙiyar da ke da shi, da asarar rashin daidaituwa na lissafi na kusan 8%.
1.5. Ikoukar hoto da aka shigar da shi: manufofin ƙasashe daban-daban a bayyane suke, kuma akwai babban sarari don sabon ƙarfin da ke cikin gaba
Duniya ta cimma yarjejeniya a kan Net Zero a karkashin burin kare muhalli, da kuma tattalin arzikin masu daukar hoto suyi ta biyu sun fito a hankali. Kasashe suna ci gaba da ci gaban ci gaban samar da wutar lantarki mai sabuntawa. A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, ƙasashe a duniya sun yi alkawarin rage ɓarke carbon. Yawancin manyan greenhous gas Emitsters sun tsara daidai maƙarƙashiyar makamashi na sabuntawa, da kuma ƙarfin ƙarfin sabuntawa yana da girma. Dangane da maƙasudin iko na 1.5 ℃, Iren ya annabta cewa damar samar da wutar lantarki ta duniya zai kai 10.8TW a cikin 20.0Tw a cikin 2030. A karo na 20.0 Babban gabatarwar da manufofi a cikin kasashe daban-daban da kuma tattalin arzikin Powovoltaic Powerarnin da aka sanya a cikin karfin daukar hoto a duniya da China a cikin 'yan shekarun nan. Daga shekarar 2012 zuwa 2021, karfin karfin daukar hoto a duniya zai karu daga 104.3gw zuwa 849.5.5.50arancin karuwar daukar hoto zuwa 307GW, karuwar sama da 47GW, karuwar sama da 47GW, karuwar sama da sau 47gw, karuwar sau 44. Bugu da kari, ana shigar da sabon hoto na kasar Sin sama da kashi 20% na jimlar da aka sanya a duniya. A shekarar 2021, sabon hoto na China wanda aka shigar da Sinanci shine 53GW, lissafin kusan kashi 40% na sabon ikon shigar da shi. Wannan ya isa ne saboda yawan rarraba kayan makamashi a kasar Sin, ingantacciyar cigaba da manyan manufofin kasa. A wannan lokacin, kasar Sin ta taka rawar gani a fagen Powovoltaic Power, da karfin karfin da aka sanya kasa da 6.5%. tsalle zuwa 36.14%.
Dangane da bincike na sama, CPIa ya ba da hasashen sabon karuwar shigo da hoto daga 2022 zuwa 2030 a duk faɗin duniya. An kiyasta cewa a ƙarƙashin dukkan halaye da ra'ayin mazan jiya, da sabon ikon da aka sanya a cikin 2030 zai zama 36., 105GW. Da ke ƙasa za mu ji hasashen Polysilicon dangane da sikelin da aka sanya a kowace ikon da kowace shekara.
1.6. Neman hasashen Polysilicon don aikace-aikacen hoto
Daga 2022 zuwa 2030, dangane da hasashen CPIA game da shigarwa na duniya a ƙarƙashin dukkan abubuwan da ke tattare-baya na aikace-aikacen PV za a iya annabta. Kwayoyin sune babban mataki don fahimtar hotunan hoto, da kuma wautar siliki sune ainihin kayan sel da kuma ƙasa madaidaiciya na Polysilicon suna buƙatar hasashen. Yawan adadin guda na kowane kilogram na silicon sandunan silicon da tashoshin silsi da tallan sandunan silicon da masarufi. Bayan haka, gwargwadon iko da kasuwar silicon sozs daban-daban, ana iya samun nauyin silicon da ake buƙata na silicon wafers bisa ga sabon hoto mai amfani. Bayan haka, nauyin silicon na da ake buƙata gwargwadon dangantakar siliki tsakanin adadin silicon da silicon girma a cikin kilogram. A ci gaba hade tare da yawan silicon da ake amfani da silicon sandes / Silicon girma, buƙatun polysaic da aka shigar da shi za'a iya samu. Dangane da sakamakon hasashen duniya, bukatun duniya na Polysilicon don sabon shigowar saiti a cikin shekaru biyar da suka gabata zai ci gaba da tashi, yana da shekaru uku masu zuwa. An kiyasta cewa a karkashin kyakkyawan fata da yanayin ra'ayin mazan jiya a cikin 2025, buƙatun duniya na Polysaic zai zama 1,042,100 na Polysaic zai zama 1,042,100 Tons na 20,042 , Tan 896,900. A cewar kasar Singwargwadon ƙarfin hoto na duniya,Bukatar China don amfani da hoto a cikin 2025Ana sa ran za ku zama tan 369,600 da tan bi da bi na 302,600 a karkashin kyakkyawan fata da yanayin ra'ayin mazan jiya, da 739,300 tan da tan 77,200 a ƙasashen waje bi da bi.
2, Ƙarshen semiconductor
Baya ga yin sel Phatestaic, polysilicon kuma za'a iya amfani dashi azaman albarkatun kasa don samar da kwakwalwan kwamfuta, wanda hanyoyin sadarwa na lantarki, kayan aikin gida da sauran filayen. Tsarin daga Polysilicon zuwa guntu an tsara shi zuwa matakai uku. Da farko, an jawo polysilicon cikin monocrystalline silicon girma, sannan a yanka a cikin bakin silicon solic. Ana samar da silicon wafers ta hanyar jerin nika, chamfering da ayyukan polish. , wanda shine asalin albarkatun ƙasa na masana'antar semiconductor. A ƙarshe, da silikon wafer ne a yanka kuma laser an zana su a cikin tsarin da'ira don yin samfuran guntu tare da wasu halaye. Silicon na kowa ya haɗa da wafers da goge goge, wafon da aka goge da soi wafers. Wafer Walaf ne kayan samarwa na guntu tare da babbar hanya wanda aka samo silikon wafer don cire kwakwalwan ruwa, wanda za'a iya amfani da shi kai tsaye don yin kwakwalwan kwamfuta, wanda za'a iya amfani da shi kai tsaye don sanya kwakwalwan kwamfuta, wanda za'a iya amfani da shi kai tsaye don yin kwakwalwan kwamfuta. Ana samun Opitaxial Wafers ta hanyar haɓaka solersol goge, yayin da Silicon Wafers an ƙafe ta ko kuma ion sa a goge Wafer Substres, kuma tsarin shiri yana da wahala.
Ta hanyar buƙatar Polysilicon a gefen kungiyar semiconductor a 2021, a hade da hasashen masana'antar ci gaban da 'yan masana'antu a gaba, ana bukatar Polysilicon daga 2022 zuwa 2025 ana iya kiyasta cewa an kiyasta. A cikin 2021, samar da kayan lantarki na lantarki zai yi lissafin kusan kashi 6% na samarwa na polysilicon, da silin-aji polysilicon da kuma silin-aji zasuyi lissafin kusan kashi 94%. Yawancin aikin lantarki na lantarki ana amfani da shi a cikin filin semiconductor, da sauran polysilicon da aka yi amfani da su a cikin masana'antar daukar hoto. . Sabili da haka, ana iya ɗauka cewa adadin Polysilicon da aka yi amfani da shi a cikin masana'antar Semicontortory a cikin 2021 kusan tan 37,000 kusan taloyi 37,000 ne kusan tan 37,000. Bugu da kari, a cewar samar da masana'antar masana'antar semiconductor na gaba wanda aka annabta, bukatar Polysilicon zai karu a cikin 201,500 tan. (Rahoton rahoton: Tank Tank
3, Polysilicon shigo da fitarwa: shigo da nisa mafi girman fitarwa, tare da Jamus da kuma lissafin asusu don babban rabo
A cikin 2021, kusan 18.63% na bukatun China na bukatar zai zo daga shigo da kaya, da kuma sikelin shigo da nisa ya wuce sikelin fitarwa. Daga shekarar 2017 zuwa 2021, shigo da kaya da fitarwa na polysilicon yana mamaye shigo da Polysaic na sama da 94% na jimlar bukatar; Bugu da kari, kamfanin bai mallaki fasahar samar da kayan lantarki ba na babban masana'antar lantarki har yanzu yana buƙatar dogara da shigo da kaya. Dangane da bayanan reshen masana'antar silicon, ana ci gaba da shigo da shigo da kayayyaki a cikin 2019 zuwa 452,000, OCI, OCI, OCI, OCI, OCI, OCI, OCI, OCI, OCI, OCI, OCILANS TAFIYA A shekara ta 2019. A lokaci guda ya tashi daga tanadin samarwa a 2019 zuwa 452,000. An cire shi daga masana'antar Polysilicon saboda asarar, don haka shigar da abin dogaro da polysilicon yana da yawa; Kodayake ikon samarwa bai karu a shekarar 2020 ba, ya haifar da jinkiri wajen gina ayyukan hoto, da adadin umarni na Polysilon ya ragu a cikin wannan lokacin. A shekarar 2021, kasuwar daukar hoto ta kasar Sin za ta ci gaba da sauri, kuma a bayyane yake amfani da Polysilicon zai kai tan 613,000, yana tuki da shigo da zuwa sake. A cikin shekaru biyar da suka gabata, an ba da damar samar da ton newanin 90,000 da 140,000 a cikin tan 103. Ana tsammanin cewa yana shigo da tanura 10,000 a kowace shekara daga shekarar 2022 zuwa 2025.
Masu shigo da kayayyaki na Polysilicon sun fito ne daga Jamus, Malesiya, Japan da Taiwan sun fito ne daga Jamus, da kuma kashi 45% daga Japan, da kuma 6% daga Taiwan. Jamus ta mallaki wacker polysilicon duniya, wanda shine mafi girman tushen kasashen waje polysilon, asusun na 12.7% na jimlar yawan samarwa na duniya a cikin 2021; Malaysia tana da yawan layin samarwa na Polysilicon daga kamfanin OCI na Kudancin Koriya, wanda ke fitowa daga asalin samar da asali na asali a Malaysia na Tekuyama, kamfanin Jafananci ya samu OCI. Akwai masana'antu da wasu masana'antu waɗanda OCI suka ƙaura daga Koriya ta Kudu ga Malaysia. Dalilin dawo da shi shine cewa Malaysia tana samar da sararin samaniya ta kyauta kuma farashin wutar lantarki shine ƙasa ɗaya-uku fiye da na Koriya ta Kudu; Japan da Taiwan, Sin suna da Tekuyama, samun da sauran kamfanoni, wanda ke mamaye babban rabo na samar da polysilicon. wani wuri. A cikin 2021, fitowar polysilicon zai zama tan 492,000, wanda sabon mai amfani da kayan kwalliya zai zama tan 20,400 bi da 20,500 tan da kuma tanadin samarwa na 20,500, da kuma sauran tanade na 20,500, kuma ragowar tanade 1,400,000 don yin amfani da kuzari 20,500. A cikin ƙasa mai shinge na polysilicon, silicon wafers, sel da medules ana fitar da su, daga inda fitarwa modules ne musamman sananne. A shekarar 2021, 4.64 biliyan 4,64 siliki da siliniyan 42 na biliyan 3.2 ya kasancefitad daDaga China, tare da duka fitarwa na 22.6gw da 10.3gw bi da bi, da fitowar kayan hoto shine 98.5GW, tare da 'yan shigo da yawa. A cikin sharuddan fitarwa ƙayyadaddun kayan aiki, kayan jigilar kayayyaki a cikin 2021 zai kai Amurka biliyan 24.61, lissafin kashi 86%, bi da siliki da siliki. A cikin 2021, sanyin duniya na silicon wafers, sel Photovoltanic zai kai 97.3%, da 82.3%, bi da bi da 82.3%. Ana tsammanin masana'antar Photovoltanic ta duniya za ta ci gaba da mai da hankali a China a cikin shekaru uku masu zuwa, da kuma fitarwa da fitarwa na kowane haɗin zai zama babba. Sabili da haka, an kiyasta cewa daga 2022 zuwa 2025, adadin polysilicon da aka yi amfani da shi don sarrafawa da samar da samfuran ƙasa da fitarwa a ƙasashen waje zai ƙara ƙaruwa. An kiyasta ta hanyar cin zarafin kasashen waje daga bukatun Polysilon. A shekarar 2025, polysilicon da aka samar ta hanyar sarrafawa cikin samfuran ƙasa za a kiyasta don fitarwa 583,000 Tons zuwa ƙasashen waje daga China
4, Taƙaitawa da hangen nesa
Buƙatar Polysilon na duniya ya fi dacewa a cikin filin daukar hoto, da kuma bukatar a filin semiconductor ba tsari na girma. Ana iya amfani da buƙatar polysailcon ta hanyar shigarwar Polysail, kuma a hankali ana watsa shi zuwa Polysilicon ta hanyar hanyar wafer-wafer-wafer, samar da bukatar hakan. A nan gaba, tare da fadada daukar hoto ta duniya wanda aka sanya, buƙatun Polysilicon gabaɗaya ne. Wanda yake lura da, China da sabon ƙara yawan shirye-shiryen PV suna haifar da buƙatar Polysilicon a cikin 2025 zai zama 36.93gw da 6.24GW da 6.24GW da 60.49GW da 60.49GW da 60.49GW da 60.49GW da 60.49gw bi da bi. A cikin 2021, wadatar polysilic ta duniya da buƙata zai kasance mai ƙarfi, sakamakon babban farashin polysilon na duniya. Wannan halin na iya ci gaba har sai 2022, kuma sannu a hankali juya zuwa matakin wadata bayan 2020. A cikin rabin kashi 2020. A karo na biyu da aka shirya buƙatar Polysilicon, kuma wasu manyan kamfanoni da aka shirya don fadada samarwa. Koyaya, sake zagayowar fadada fiye da ɗaya da rabi ya haifar da ƙaddamar da ƙarfin samarwa a ƙarshen 2021 da kuma 2022, wanda ya karu a cikin tanU, saboda haka farashin ya tashi sosai. An annabta cewa a cikin 2022, a ƙarƙashin kyakkyawan fata da yanayin aikin hoto wanda aka sanya shi-da -15,500 bi da bi, da kuma wadatar tanadi da har yanzu suna cikin taƙaitaccen wadata. A shekarar 2023 kuma bayan, sabbin ayyukan da suka fara gini a ƙarshen 2021 da sanyin 2022 za su fara samarwa da ikon samarwa cikin ƙarfin samarwa. Wadanda ke nema kuma za su sassauta hankali, kuma farashin na iya kasancewa ƙarƙashin matsin lamba. A cikin biye, ya kamata a biya hankali ga tasirin yakin Rasha-Ukrainian akan tsarin kuzarin duniya, wanda zai iya canza shirin Physaic da aka shigar da shi, wanda zai shafi buƙatar polysilicon.
(Wannan labarin ba kawai ga abokan cinikin birane ba kuma ba ya wakiltar kowane shawarar hannun jari ba)