1. Sarkar masana'antar Polysilicon: Tsarin samarwa yana da rikitarwa, kuma ƙasa tana mai da hankali kan semiconductor na hotovoltaic.
Polysilicon an samar da shi ne daga silicon masana'antu, chlorine da hydrogen, kuma yana sama da sarƙoƙin masana'antar hoto da na'ura mai ɗaukar hoto. Dangane da bayanan CPIA, hanyar samar da polysilicon na yau da kullun a duniya ita ce hanyar Siemens da aka gyara, ban da China, fiye da kashi 95% na polysilicon ana yin su ta hanyar Siemens da aka gyara. A cikin shirin shirya polysilicon ta hanyar ingantacciyar hanyar Siemens, da farko, ana haɗa iskar chlorine tare da hydrogen gas don samar da hydrogen chloride, sa'an nan kuma yana amsawa da foda na silicon bayan an niƙa da niƙa na silicon masana'antu don samar da trichlorosilane, wanda ya rage ta hydrogen gas don samar da polysilicon. Ana iya narkar da siliki na polycrystalline da sanyaya don yin polycrystalline silicon ingots, kuma silicon monocrystalline kuma ana iya samar da shi ta hanyar Czochralski ko yankin narkewa. Idan aka kwatanta da siliki na polycrystalline, silicon crystal siliki ɗaya ya ƙunshi ƙwaya mai kristal tare da daidaitawar crystal iri ɗaya, don haka yana da mafi kyawun halayen lantarki da ingantaccen juzu'i. Dukansu polycrystalline silicon ingots da monocrystalline silicon sanduna za a iya kara yankewa da kuma sarrafa su cikin siliki wafers da sel, wanda hakan ya zama mahimman sassa na kayan aikin photovoltaic kuma ana amfani da su a cikin filin hoto. Bugu da kari, kristal silicon wafers kuma za a iya kafa a cikin silicon wafers ta maimaita nika, polishing, epitaxy, tsaftacewa da sauran matakai, wanda za a iya amfani da matsayin substrate kayan ga semiconductor lantarki na'urorin.
Ana buƙatar abun ciki na ƙazanta na polysilicon, kuma masana'antar tana da halaye na babban jarin jari da manyan shingen fasaha. Tunda tsarkin polysilicon zai yi tasiri sosai akan tsarin zanen siliki guda ɗaya, buƙatun tsabta suna da tsauri. Mafi ƙarancin tsabta na polysilicon shine 99.9999%, kuma mafi girman yana kusa da 100% mara iyaka. Bugu da kari, ka'idojin kasa da kasa na kasar Sin sun gabatar da bukatu karara ga abubuwan da ba su da tsarki, kuma bisa ga wannan, an kasaftar polysilicon zuwa maki I, II, da III, wanda abun da ke cikin boron, phosphorus, oxygen da carbon ya kasance muhimmiyar ma'ida. "Sharuɗɗan Samun Masana'antu na Polysilicon" ya nuna cewa dole ne kamfanoni su kasance da ingantaccen tsarin dubawa da gudanarwa, kuma ka'idodin samfura sun cika ƙa'idodin ƙasa; Bugu da ƙari, yanayin samun damar kuma yana buƙatar ma'auni da amfani da makamashi na masana'antun samar da polysilicon, kamar darajar hasken rana, polysilicon-electronic-grade Ma'aunin aikin ya fi 3000 ton / shekara da 1000 ton / shekara bi da bi, da mafi ƙarancin babban rabo. a cikin zuba jarurruka na sababbin gine-gine da sake ginawa da fadada ayyukan ba za su kasance ƙasa da 30% ba, don haka polysilicon shine masana'antu mai mahimmanci. Dangane da kididdigar CPIA, kudin zuba jari na kayan aikin layin polysilicon ton 10,000 da aka fara aiki a shekarar 2021 ya dan karu zuwa yuan miliyan 103. Dalili kuwa shine tashin farashin kayan karafa da yawa. Ana sa ran cewa farashin zuba jari a nan gaba zai karu tare da ci gaban fasahar kayan aikin samar da kayayyaki da kuma raguwar monomer yayin da girman ya karu. Dangane da ka'idodin, ikon amfani da polysilicon don ƙimar hasken rana da ƙarancin lantarki na Czochralski yakamata ya zama ƙasa da 60 kWh / kg da 100 kWh / kg bi da bi, kuma buƙatun don alamun amfani da makamashi suna da tsauri. Samar da Polysilicon ya kasance na masana'antar sinadarai. Tsarin samarwa yana da rikitarwa, kuma bakin kofa don hanyoyin fasaha, zaɓin kayan aiki, ƙaddamarwa da aiki yana da girma. Tsarin samarwa ya ƙunshi haɗaɗɗun halayen sinadarai masu yawa, kuma adadin nodes ɗin sarrafawa ya fi 1,000. Yana da wahala ga sababbin masu shiga da sauri ƙware ƙwararrun sana'a. Sabili da haka, akwai manyan shinge da shinge na fasaha a cikin masana'antar samar da polysilicon, wanda kuma ke haɓaka masana'antun polysilicon don aiwatar da ingantaccen ingantaccen fasaha na kwararar tsari, marufi da tsarin sufuri.
2. Rarraba Polysilicon: tsafta yana ƙayyade amfani, kuma darajar hasken rana ya mamaye al'ada
Silicon Polycrystalline, wani nau'i na siliki na farko, ya ƙunshi hatsin lu'ulu'u tare da daidaitawar lu'ulu'u daban-daban, kuma galibi ana tsarkake su ta hanyar sarrafa silicon na masana'antu. Bayyanar polysilicon shine launin toka mai launin toka, kuma wurin narkewa yana kusan 1410 ℃. Ba shi da aiki a cikin zafin jiki kuma yana aiki sosai a cikin narkakkar yanayi. Polysilicon yana da kaddarorin semiconductor kuma abu ne mai mahimmanci kuma ingantaccen abu, amma ƙaramin ƙazanta na iya yin tasiri sosai. Akwai hanyoyin rarrabuwa da yawa don polysilicon. Baya ga rarrabuwar kawuna da aka ambata a baya bisa ka'idojin kasar Sin, an gabatar da wasu muhimman hanyoyin rarrabuwa guda uku a nan. Dangane da buƙatun tsabta da amfani daban-daban, ana iya raba polysilicon zuwa polysilicon-sa na hasken rana da polysilicon-jin lantarki. Ana amfani da polysilicon mai amfani da hasken rana a cikin samar da sel na photovoltaic, yayin da ake amfani da polysilicon na lantarki da yawa a cikin masana'antar da'ira mai haɗaka azaman albarkatun ƙasa don kwakwalwan kwamfuta da sauran samarwa. Tsaftar polysilicon mai darajar hasken rana shine 6 ~ 8N, wato, ana buƙatar jimillar ƙazanta abun ciki don zama ƙasa da 10 -6, kuma tsarkin polysilicon dole ne ya kai 99.9999% ko fiye. Bukatun tsabta na polysilicon-sa na lantarki sun fi tsauri, tare da ƙaramar 9N da matsakaicin matsakaicin 12N na yanzu. Samar da nau'in polysilicon na lantarki yana da matukar wahala. Akwai ƙananan kamfanoni na kasar Sin da suka ƙware da fasahar kera na'urar polysilicon na lantarki, kuma har yanzu sun dogara ga shigo da kaya. A halin yanzu, fitowar polysilicon mai darajar hasken rana ya fi girma fiye da na polysilicon na lantarki, kuma na farko yana da kusan sau 13.8 na na ƙarshe.
Dangane da bambance-bambancen ƙazanta na doping da nau'in nau'in siliki, ana iya raba shi zuwa nau'in P da nau'in N. Lokacin da aka yi amfani da siliki tare da abubuwan da ba su da kyau, kamar boron, aluminum, gallium, da dai sauransu, yana mamaye ramin kuma nau'in P-type ne. Lokacin da aka yi amfani da silicon tare da abubuwa masu ƙazanta masu bayarwa, kamar su phosphorus, arsenic, antimony, da sauransu, ƙarfin lantarki ya mamaye shi kuma nau'in N-type ne. Batura masu nau'in P sun haɗa da batura BSF da batir PERC. A cikin 2021, batirin PERC zai yi lissafin sama da 91% na kasuwannin duniya, kuma za a kawar da batir BSF. A lokacin lokacin da PERC ya maye gurbin BSF, ingantaccen juzu'i na nau'in nau'in nau'in P ya karu daga ƙasa da 20% zuwa fiye da 23%, wanda ke gab da kusantar babban ƙayyadaddun ka'idar 24.5%, yayin da babban ƙayyadaddun ka'idar N- nau'in nau'in sel shine 28.7%, kuma nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau’in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau‘in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau’in nau’in nau’in nau’in nau’i na nau'i na nau'i na nau'i na nau'i na nau'i) yana canzawa yadda ya dace yana da tasiri na juyawa, saboda fa'idodin babban rabo na bifacial da ƙarancin zafin jiki, kamfanoni sun fara tura layin samar da taro don batura na nau'in N. A cewar hasashen CPIA, adadin batir irin N zai karu sosai daga kashi 3% zuwa 13.4% a shekarar 2022. Ana sa ran nan da shekaru biyar masu zuwa, za a shigar da kara karfin batirin N-type zuwa P-type. . Bisa ga nau'i-nau'i daban-daban, ana iya raba shi zuwa kayan abu mai yawa, kayan farin kabeji da kayan murjani. Fuskar kayan abu mai yawa yana da mafi ƙasƙanci na ƙima, ƙasa da 5mm, babu rashin daidaituwa na launi, babu interlayer oxidation, da farashi mafi girma; saman kayan farin kabeji yana da matsakaicin matsakaicin matsakaici, 5-20mm, sashin yana da matsakaici, kuma farashin yana tsakiyar kewayon; yayin da saman kayan murjani yana da mafi girman ƙima, Zurfin ya fi 20mm girma, sashin yana kwance, kuma farashin shine mafi ƙasƙanci. Ana amfani da kayan mai yawa don zana silicon monocrystalline, yayin da kayan farin kabeji da kayan murjani galibi ana amfani da su don yin wafers na siliki na polycrystalline. A cikin samar da kamfanoni na yau da kullun, ana iya ƙara kayan mai yawa tare da ƙarancin kayan farin kabeji 30% don samar da silicon monocrystalline. Za'a iya adana farashin albarkatun ƙasa, amma yin amfani da kayan farin kabeji zai rage tasirin ja mai kristal zuwa wani matsayi. Kamfanoni suna buƙatar zaɓar rabon doping da ya dace bayan auna su biyun. Kwanan nan, bambancin farashin tsakanin abu mai yawa da kayan farin kabeji ya daidaita a 3 RMB / kg. Idan bambancin farashin ya kara fadada, kamfanoni na iya yin la'akari da doping ƙarin kayan farin kabeji a cikin jan silicon monocrystalline.
3. Tsari: Hanyar Siemens ta mamaye al'ada, kuma amfani da wutar lantarki ya zama mabuɗin canjin fasaha
Tsarin samar da polysilicon ya kasu kusan zuwa matakai biyu. A mataki na farko, ana mayar da foda na silicon na masana'antu tare da hydrogen chloride mai anhydrous don samun trichlorosilane da hydrogen. Bayan maimaita distillation da tsarkakewa, gaseous trichlorosilane, dichlorodihydrosilicon da Silane; mataki na biyu shine rage yawan iskar gas mai tsafta da aka ambata a sama zuwa silikon crystalline, kuma matakin ragewa ya sha bamban a cikin hanyar Siemens da aka gyara da kuma hanyar silane fluidized gado. Ingantacciyar hanyar Siemens tana da fasahar samar da balagagge da ingancin samfura, kuma a halin yanzu ita ce fasahar samarwa da aka fi amfani da ita. Hanyar samar da Siemens na gargajiya ita ce yin amfani da chlorine da hydrogen don haɗa sinadarin hydrogen chloride mai anhydrous, hydrogen chloride da sililin masana'antu foda don haɗa trichlorosilane a wani zafin jiki, sannan a ware, gyara da tsarkake trichlorosilane. Silikon yana jure yanayin rage zafin zafi a cikin tanderun rage hydrogen don samun siliki na asali da aka ajiye akan ainihin silicon. A kan wannan, ingantaccen tsarin Siemens kuma yana sanye take da tsarin tallafi don sake yin amfani da samfuran da yawa kamar hydrogen, hydrogen chloride, da silicon tetrachloride da aka samar a cikin tsarin samarwa, musamman gami da rage dawo da iskar gas da kuma sake amfani da silicon tetrachloride. fasaha. Hydrogen, hydrogen chloride, trichlorosilane, da silicon tetrachloride a cikin iskar iskar gas sun rabu ta bushe bushe. Ana iya sake amfani da hydrogen da hydrogen chloride don haɗawa da tsarkakewa tare da trichlorosilane, kuma ana sake yin amfani da trichlorosilane kai tsaye zuwa rage zafin zafi. Ana aiwatar da tsarkakewa a cikin tanderu, kuma silicon tetrachloride ne hydrogenated don samar da trichlorosilane, wanda za a iya amfani da su tsarkakewa. Wannan mataki kuma ana kiransa maganin hydrogenation sanyi. Ta hanyar fahimtar samar da kewayon rufaffiyar, kamfanoni za su iya rage yawan amfani da albarkatun kasa da wutar lantarki, ta yadda za a iya ceton farashin samarwa yadda ya kamata.
Kudin samar da polysilicon ta hanyar amfani da ingantacciyar hanyar Siemens a kasar Sin ya hada da albarkatun kasa, amfani da makamashi, raguwar farashi, farashin sarrafawa, da dai sauransu. Ci gaban fasaha a masana'antar ya haifar da raguwar farashin. Kayan albarkatun kasa galibi suna nufin silicon masana'antu da trichlorosilane, amfani da makamashi ya haɗa da wutar lantarki da tururi, kuma farashin sarrafawa yana nufin dubawa da gyara farashin kayan aikin samarwa. Bisa kididdigar da Baichuan Yingfu ta yi kan farashin samar da polysilicon a farkon watan Yuni na shekarar 2022, albarkatun kasa su ne mafi tsadar kayayyaki, wanda ya kai kashi 41 cikin 100 na jimillar farashi, wanda silicon masana'antu shi ne babban tushen siliki. Amfani da naúrar silicon da aka saba amfani da ita a cikin masana'antu yana wakiltar adadin siliki da ake cinye kowace naúrar samfuran siliki masu tsafta. Hanyar lissafin ita ce canza duk kayan da ke ɗauke da silicon kamar foda silicon foda na masana'antu da trichlorosilane zuwa siliki mai tsabta, sannan a cire chlorosilane da aka fitar kamar yadda Adadin siliki mai tsafta da aka canza daga ma'aunin abun ciki na silicon. Dangane da bayanan CPIA, matakin amfani da silicon zai ragu da 0.01 kg/kg-Si zuwa 1.09 kg/kg-Si a cikin 2021. Ana sa ran cewa tare da haɓaka maganin hydrogenation sanyi da sake yin amfani da samfur, ana sa ran za raguwa zuwa 1.07 kg/kg ta 2030. kg-Si. Bisa kididdigar da ba ta cika ba, yawan amfani da silicon na manyan kamfanonin kasar Sin guda biyar a masana'antar polysilicon ya yi kasa da matsakaicin masana'antu. An sani cewa biyu daga cikinsu za su cinye 1.08 kg/kg-Si da 1.05 kg/kg-Si bi da bi a cikin 2021. Na biyu mafi girma rabo daga makamashi amfani, lissafin kudi 32% a duka, wanda wutar lantarki lissafin 30% na jimlar farashin, yana nuna cewa farashin wutar lantarki da inganci har yanzu suna da mahimmancin abubuwan samar da polysilicon. Manyan alamomi guda biyu don auna ingancin wutar lantarki sune cikakken amfani da wutar lantarki da rage yawan wutar lantarki. Rage amfani da wutar lantarki yana nufin tsarin rage trichlorosilane da hydrogen don samar da kayan silicon mai tsabta. Amfanin wutar lantarki ya haɗa da siliki core preheating da sakawa. , adana zafi, ƙarshen samun iska da sauran tsarin amfani da wutar lantarki. A cikin 2021, tare da ci gaban fasaha da cikakken amfani da makamashi, matsakaicin cikakken ƙarfin ikon samar da polysilicon zai ragu da 5.3% kowace shekara zuwa 63kWh/kg-Si, kuma matsakaicin rage yawan wutar lantarki zai ragu da kashi 6.1% shekara- a kan-shekara zuwa 46kWh/kg-Si, wanda ake sa ran zai kara raguwa a nan gaba. . Bugu da ƙari, raguwa kuma abu ne mai mahimmanci na farashi, yana lissafin 17%. Ya kamata a sani cewa, bisa ga bayanan Baichuan Yingfu, jimillar kudin da ake samar da sinadarin polysilicon a farkon watan Yunin shekarar 2022 ya kai kusan yuan 55,816 / ton, matsakaicin farashin polysilicon a kasuwa ya kai yuan 260,000, kuma yawan ribar da aka samu ya kasance. sama da kashi 70% ko fiye, don haka ya ja hankalin ɗimbin Kamfanoni da ke saka hannun jari wajen gina ƙarfin samar da polysilicon.
Akwai hanyoyi guda biyu don masana'antun polysilicon don rage farashi, ɗaya shine rage farashin albarkatun ƙasa, ɗayan kuma shine rage yawan amfani da wutar lantarki. Dangane da albarkatun kasa, masana'antun na iya rage farashin albarkatun ƙasa ta hanyar sanya hannu kan yarjejeniyar haɗin gwiwa na dogon lokaci tare da masana'antun silicon na masana'antu, ko gina haɗin gwiwar sama da ƙasa. Misali, shuke-shuken samar da polysilicon galibi sun dogara da wadatar siliki na masana'antu. Dangane da amfani da wutar lantarki, masana'antun na iya rage farashin wutar lantarki ta hanyar ƙarancin farashin wutar lantarki da ingantaccen amfani da makamashi. Kusan kashi 70 cikin 100 na yawan amfani da wutar lantarki shine rage yawan amfani da wutar lantarki, kuma raguwa kuma shine babbar hanyar haɗin gwiwa wajen samar da siliki mai tsafta mai tsafta. Sabili da haka, yawancin karfin samar da siliki a kasar Sin ya maida hankali ne a yankunan da farashin wutar lantarki ya yi kadan kamar Xinjiang, Mongoliya ta ciki, Sichuan da Yunnan. Duk da haka, tare da ci gaban manufofin carbon guda biyu, yana da wuya a sami babban adadin albarkatun wutar lantarki mai rahusa. Don haka, rage yawan amfani da wutar lantarki don raguwa shine mafi yuwuwar rage farashi a yau. Hanya. A halin yanzu, ingantacciyar hanyar rage rage amfani da wutar lantarki ita ce ƙara yawan adadin siliki a cikin tanderun ragewa, ta yadda za a faɗaɗa fitowar naúrar guda ɗaya. A halin yanzu, nau'ikan tanderun da aka fi amfani da su a kasar Sin sun hada da sanduna 36, sanduna 40 da sanduna 48. An inganta nau'in tanderun zuwa nau'i-nau'i 60 na sanduna da 72 nau'i-nau'i na sanduna, amma a lokaci guda, yana kuma gabatar da manyan buƙatu don samar da fasaha na masana'antu.
Idan aka kwatanta da ingantacciyar hanyar Siemens, hanyar silane fluidized gado yana da fa'idodi guda uku, ɗayan ƙarancin wutar lantarki ne, ɗayan kuma babban fitarwar kristal ne, kuma na uku shine ya fi dacewa don haɗawa tare da ci gaba da fasahar Czochralski ta CCZ. Dangane da bayanan Reshen Masana'antar Silicon, cikakken ikon amfani da hanyar silane fluidized gado shine 33.33% na ingantacciyar hanyar Siemens, kuma rage yawan amfani da wutar lantarki shine 10% na ingantacciyar hanyar Siemens. Hanyar gado mai ruwa ta silane tana da fa'idodin amfani da kuzari. Dangane da jan ƙarfe kristal, abubuwan zahiri na silicon granular na iya sauƙaƙe cika ma'adinan ma'adini a cikin hanyar haɗin sandar silikon crystal guda ɗaya. Polycrystalline silicon da granular silicon na iya ƙara ƙarfin cajin wutar lantarki guda ɗaya da kashi 29%, yayin da rage lokacin caji da kashi 41%, yana inganta haɓaka haɓakar siliki guda ɗaya. Bugu da ƙari, silicon granular yana da ƙananan diamita da kuma ruwa mai kyau, wanda ya fi dacewa da hanyar Czochralski ci gaba da CCZ. A halin yanzu, babbar fasahar jan kristal guda ɗaya a tsakiya da ƙasa ita ce hanyar RCZ guda ɗaya ta sake simintin simintin simintin gyare-gyare, wanda shine sake ciyarwa da ja da kristal bayan an ja sandar siliki guda ɗaya. Ana aiwatar da zane a lokaci guda, wanda ke adana lokacin sanyaya na sandar silicon crystal guda ɗaya, don haka ingancin samarwa ya fi girma. Haɓaka saurin ci gaba na hanyar Czochralski na ci gaba da CCZ zai kuma haɓaka buƙatun silicon granular. Ko da yake granular silicon yana da wasu rashin amfani, kamar ƙarin siliki foda da aka samar ta hanyar gogayya, babban yanki da kuma sauƙin adsorption na gurɓataccen abu, da hydrogen a hade cikin hydrogen yayin narkewa, wanda ke da sauƙin haifar da tsalle-tsalle, amma bisa ga sabon sanarwar da ya dace na silicon granular. Kamfanoni, ana inganta waɗannan matsalolin kuma an sami wasu ci gaba.
Tsarin gado na silane ya balaga a Turai da Amurka, kuma yana cikin farawa bayan bullo da kamfanonin kasar Sin. Tun daga shekarun 1980s, silicon granular na waje wanda REC da MEMC ke wakilta ya fara bincika samar da siliki mai ƙwanƙwasa kuma ya sami babban samarwa. Daga cikin su, jimillar iyawar REC na silicon granular ya kai ton 10,500 / shekara a cikin 2010, kuma idan aka kwatanta da takwarorinsa na Siemens a daidai wannan lokacin, yana da fa'idar aƙalla US $ 2-3 / kg. Sakamakon bukatu na ja da lu'ulu'u guda ɗaya, samar da siliki na granular na kamfanin ya tsaya cak, kuma a ƙarshe ya daina samarwa, kuma ya juya zuwa ga haɗin gwiwa tare da kasar Sin don kafa masana'antar kera don shiga cikin samar da siliki mai ƙyalƙyali.
4. Raw kayan: silicon masana'antu ne ainihin albarkatun kasa, da kuma wadata iya saduwa da bukatun na polysilicon fadada.
Silikon masana'antu shine ainihin albarkatun ƙasa don samar da polysilicon. Ana sa ran cewa, yawan sinadarin silicon na masana'antu na kasar Sin zai karu a hankali daga shekarar 2022 zuwa 2025. Daga shekarar 2010 zuwa 2021, samar da siliki na masana'antu na kasar Sin yana cikin wani mataki na fadadawa, inda matsakaicin karuwar karfin samar da kayan aikin da ake samarwa a shekara ya kai kashi 7.4% da 8.6%, bi da bi. . Dangane da bayanan SMM, sabon ya karumasana'antu silicon samar iya aikiA kasar Sin za ta kasance ton 890,000 da tan miliyan 1.065 a shekarar 2022 da 2023. Ana tsammanin cewa kamfanonin silicon na masana'antu za su ci gaba da yin amfani da ƙarfin aiki da ƙimar aiki da kusan kashi 60% a nan gaba, sabuwar ƙasar Sin ta karu.Ƙarfin samarwa a cikin 2022 da 2023 zai haifar da haɓakar fitarwa na ton 320,000 da ton 383,000. Dangane da kimanta GFCI,Ƙarfin samar da silicon na masana'antu na kasar Sin a cikin 22/23/24/25 yana da kusan tan miliyan 5.90 / 697 / 6.71 / 6.5, daidai da 3.55 / 391 / 4.18 / 4.38 ton miliyan.
Yawan ci gaban sauran wurare biyu na ƙasa na silicon masana'antu na masana'antu yana da sannu a hankali, kuma samar da silicon na masana'antu na kasar Sin zai iya cika samar da polysilicon. A shekarar 2021, karfin samar da silicon na masana'antu na kasar Sin zai kasance tan miliyan 5.385, daidai da abin da aka fitar na tan miliyan 3.213, wanda polysilicon, silicon Organic, da aluminum gami za su cinye tan 623,000, tan 898,000, da tan 649,000 bi da bi. Bugu da kari, ana amfani da kusan tan 780,000 na kayan fitarwa don fitarwa. A cikin 2021, yawan amfani da polysilicon, silicon Organic, da aluminium aluminium zai yi lissafin 19%, 28%, da 20% na silicon masana'antu, bi da bi. Daga 2022 zuwa 2025, ana sa ran haɓakar haɓakar samar da silicon na halitta zai ci gaba da kasancewa a kusan 10%, kuma yawan haɓakar haɓakar gami da aluminium yana ƙasa da 5%. Saboda haka, mun yi imanin cewa adadin silicon masana'antu da za a iya amfani da shi don polysilicon a cikin 2022-2025 ya isa sosai, wanda zai iya cika bukatun polysilicon. samar da bukatun.
5. Samar da polysilicon:Chinaya mamaye matsayi mafi girma, kuma samarwa sannu a hankali ya taru zuwa manyan kamfanoni
A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, samar da polysilicon na duniya ya karu kowace shekara, kuma sannu a hankali ya taru a kasar Sin. Daga 2017 zuwa 2021, samar da polysilicon na shekara-shekara na duniya ya tashi daga ton 432,000 zuwa tan 631,000, tare da haɓaka mafi sauri a cikin 2021, tare da haɓakar haɓaka na 21.11%. A cikin wannan lokacin, samar da polysilicon na duniya sannu a hankali ya mai da hankali a cikin kasar Sin, kuma adadin samar da polysilicon na kasar Sin ya karu daga kashi 56.02% a shekarar 2017 zuwa kashi 80.03% a shekarar 2021. An gano cewa, yawan kamfanonin kasar Sin ya karu daga 4 zuwa 8, kuma yawan karfin samar da kayayyakin da wasu kamfanonin Amurka da na Koriya suka yi ya ragu matuka, inda ya fadi daga cikin manyan kungiyoyi goma, irin su HEMOLOCK, OCI, REC da MEMC; Matsakaicin masana'antu ya karu sosai, kuma jimillar ikon samar da manyan kamfanoni goma a masana'antar ya karu daga 57.7% zuwa 90.3%. A shekarar 2021, akwai kamfanonin kasar Sin biyar da ke da fiye da kashi 10% na karfin samar da kayayyaki, wanda ya kai kashi 65.7%. . Akwai manyan dalilai guda uku na canja wurin masana'antar polysilicon a hankali zuwa China. Na farko, masana'antun polysilicon na kasar Sin suna da fa'ida sosai ta fuskar albarkatun kasa, wutar lantarki da farashin aiki. Albashin ma'aikata bai kai na kasashen waje ba, don haka yawan kudin da ake samarwa a kasar Sin ya yi kadan fiye da na kasashen waje, kuma zai ci gaba da raguwa tare da ci gaban fasaha; na biyu, ingancin samfuran polysilicon na kasar Sin yana ci gaba da inganta, yawancinsu suna matakin matakin farko na hasken rana, kuma kamfanoni masu ci gaba na daidaikun mutane suna cikin bukatun tsabta. An sami ci gaba a fannin samar da fasahar kere kere na polysilicon mafi girma na lantarki, sannu a hankali ana yin amfani da hanyar maye gurbin polysilicon na cikin gida don shigo da kaya, kuma manyan kamfanonin kasar Sin suna ba da himma wajen inganta ayyukan gina polysilicon na lantarki. Abubuwan da ake samar da wafers na siliki a cikin kasar Sin ya zarce kashi 95% na adadin kayayyakin da ake samarwa a duniya, wanda sannu a hankali ya kara yawan isar da kayayyaki ga kasar Sin, wanda ya dakushe kasuwannin masana'antun polysilicon na ketare zuwa wani matsayi.
Daga shekarar 2017 zuwa 2021, yawan sinadarin polysilicon na kasar Sin zai karu akai-akai, musamman a yankunan da ke da arzikin wutar lantarki kamar Xinjiang, Mongoliya ta ciki, da Sichuan. A shekarar 2021, yawan sinadarin polysilicon na kasar Sin zai karu daga tan 392,000 zuwa tan 505,000, wanda ya karu da kashi 28.83%. Dangane da karfin samarwa, karfin samar da polysilicon na kasar Sin gaba daya yana kan ci gaba, amma ya ragu a shekarar 2020 saboda rufewar wasu masana'antun. Bugu da kari, yawan karfin yin amfani da kamfanonin polysilicon na kasar Sin ya ci gaba da karuwa tun daga shekarar 2018, kuma yawan karfin yin amfani da shi a shekarar 2021 zai kai kashi 97.12%. Dangane da larduna, samar da polysilicon na kasar Sin a shekarar 2021 ya fi mayar da hankali ne a yankunan da farashin wutar lantarki ya yi kadan kamar Xinjiang, Mongoliya ta ciki, da Sichuan. Harin da Xinjiang ya fitar ya kai ton 270,400, wanda ya kai fiye da rabin abin da ake fitarwa a kasar Sin.
Masana'antar polysilicon ta kasar Sin tana da matsayi mai yawa, tare da darajar CR6 na 77%, kuma za a sami ci gaba a gaba a nan gaba. Samar da Polysilicon masana'antu ce mai babban jari da manyan shingen fasaha. Tsarin gine-gine da tsarin samarwa yawanci shekaru biyu ne ko fiye. Yana da wuya ga sababbin masana'antun su shiga masana'antar. Yin la'akari da fa'idodin da aka yi niyya da sabbin ayyuka a cikin shekaru uku masu zuwa, masana'antun oligopolistic a cikin masana'antar za su ci gaba da haɓaka ƙarfin samar da su ta hanyar fasahar nasu da fa'idodin ma'auni, kuma matsayinsu na keɓaɓɓu zai ci gaba da tashi.
An yi kiyasin cewa, samar da sinadarin polysilicon na kasar Sin zai kawo babban ci gaba daga shekarar 2022 zuwa 2025, kuma samar da sinadarin polysilicon zai kai tan miliyan 1.194 a shekarar 2025, lamarin da zai haifar da fadada sikelin samar da sinadarin polysilicon a duniya. A cikin 2021, tare da hauhawar farashin polysilicon a China, manyan masana'antun sun saka hannun jari don gina sabbin layukan samarwa, kuma a lokaci guda sun jawo sabbin masana'antun shiga masana'antar. Tunda ayyukan polysilicon zai ɗauki aƙalla shekara ɗaya da rabi zuwa shekaru biyu daga gini zuwa samarwa, za a kammala sabon gini a cikin 2021. Ana shigar da ƙarfin samarwa gabaɗaya cikin samarwa a cikin rabin na biyu na 2022 da 2023. Wannan ya yi daidai da sabbin tsare-tsaren aikin da manyan masana'antun suka sanar a halin yanzu. Sabuwar ƙarfin samarwa a cikin 2022-2025 an fi mayar da hankali ne a cikin 2022 da 2023. Bayan haka, kamar yadda wadata da buƙatun polysilicon da farashin sannu a hankali ke daidaitawa, jimlar samarwa a cikin masana'antar za ta daidaita sannu a hankali. Kasa, wato, yawan haɓakar ƙarfin samarwa a hankali yana raguwa. Bugu da kari, yawan karfin amfani da kamfanonin polysilicon ya kasance a matsayi mai girma a cikin shekaru biyu da suka gabata, amma zai dauki lokaci kafin samar da sabbin ayyuka don haɓakawa, kuma zai ɗauki tsari don sabbin masu shiga don ƙware. fasahar shirye-shiryen dacewa. Don haka, ƙimar amfani da sabbin ayyukan polysilicon a cikin ƴan shekaru masu zuwa zai yi ƙasa da ƙasa. Daga wannan, ana iya hasashen samar da polysilicon a cikin 2022-2025, kuma ana sa ran samar da polysilicon a cikin 2025 ya zama kusan tan miliyan 1.194.
Matsakaicin karfin samar da kayayyaki a ketare yana da yawa, kuma adadin da saurin karuwar samar da kayayyaki a cikin shekaru uku masu zuwa ba zai kai na kasar Sin ba. Ƙarfin samar da polysilicon na ketare ya fi mayar da hankali a cikin manyan kamfanoni huɗu, sauran kuma ƙananan ƙarfin samarwa ne. Dangane da ƙarfin samarwa, Wacker Chem ya mamaye rabin ƙarfin samar da polysilicon na ketare. Masana'antunta a Jamus da Amurka suna da ikon samar da ton 60,000 da ton 20,000, bi da bi. Haɓaka haɓakar ƙarfin samar da polysilicon na duniya a cikin 2022 da bayan haka na iya haifar da damuwa game da yawan wadatar kayayyaki, kamfanin har yanzu yana cikin yanayin jira da gani kuma bai yi shirin ƙara sabon ƙarfin samarwa ba. Katafaren kamfanin polysilicon na Koriya ta Kudu OCI sannu a hankali yana mai da layin samar da polysilicon na hasken rana zuwa Malaysia yayin da yake rike da ainihin layin samar da polysilicon na lantarki a kasar Sin, wanda aka tsara zai kai ton 5,000 a shekarar 2022. Yawan samar da OCI a Malaysia zai kai ton 27,000 kuma Ton 30,000 a shekarar 2020 da 2021, ana samun karancin kudin amfani da makamashi tare da kaucewa harajin da kasar Sin ta sanya kan polysilicon a Amurka da Koriya ta Kudu. Kamfanin yana shirin samar da ton 95,000 amma ba a san ranar da za a fara aiki ba. Ana sa ran zai karu a matakin tan 5,000 a kowace shekara a cikin shekaru hudu masu zuwa. Kamfanin na Norwegian REC yana da sansanonin samarwa guda biyu a cikin jihar Washington da Montana, Amurka, tare da ƙarfin samarwa na shekara-shekara na ton 18,000 na polysilicon na hasken rana da tan 2,000 na polysilicon na lantarki. REC, wanda ke cikin matsanancin kuncin kuɗi, ya zaɓi ya dakatar da samarwa, sannan ya ƙarfafa shi ta hanyar haɓakar farashin polysilicon a cikin 2021, kamfanin ya yanke shawarar sake fara samar da ton 18,000 na ayyuka a jihar Washington da ton 2,000 a Montana a ƙarshen 2023. , kuma zai iya kammala ƙaddamar da ƙarfin samarwa a cikin 2024. Hemlock shine mafi girma na polysilicon a Amurka, wanda ya ƙware a cikin polysilicon mai tsabta mai tsabta. Babban shingen fasaha na samar da kayayyaki ya sa ya yi wuya a iya maye gurbin kayayyakin kamfanin a kasuwa. A hade tare da cewa kamfanin ba ya shirin gina sabbin ayyuka a cikin ’yan shekaru, ana sa ran karfin samar da kamfanin zai kasance 2022-2025. Abubuwan da ake fitarwa na shekara-shekara ya rage a ton 18,000. Bugu da kari, a cikin 2021, sabon karfin samar da kamfanoni banda kamfanoni hudu da ke sama zai zama ton 5,000. Sakamakon rashin fahimtar tsare-tsaren samar da dukkan kamfanoni, ana tsammanin cewa sabon karfin samar da kayayyaki zai kasance ton 5,000 a kowace shekara daga 2022 zuwa 2025.
Dangane da ƙarfin samarwa na ketare, an ƙiyasta cewa samar da polysilicon na ketare a cikin 2025 zai zama kusan tan 176,000, ana ɗauka cewa ƙimar amfani da ƙarfin samar da polysilicon na ketare ya kasance baya canzawa. Bayan farashin polysilicon ya karu sosai a shekarar 2021, kamfanonin kasar Sin sun kara samar da kayayyaki tare da fadada samar da su. Sabanin haka, kamfanonin kasashen waje sun fi taka tsantsan a cikin shirinsu na sabbin ayyuka. Wannan shi ne saboda rinjayen masana'antar polysilicon ya riga ya kasance cikin ikon kasar Sin, kuma karuwar samar da kayayyaki a makance na iya kawo asara. Daga bangaren farashi, amfani da makamashi shi ne mafi girman bangaren farashin siliki, don haka farashin wutar lantarki yana da matukar muhimmanci, kuma Xinjiang, Mongoliya ta ciki, Sichuan da sauran yankuna na da fa'ida a bayyane. Daga bangaren buƙatu, a matsayinsa na kai tsaye na polysilicon, samar da wafer na siliki na kasar Sin ya kai fiye da kashi 99% na jimillar duniya. Masana'antar polysilicon da ke ƙasa sun fi mayar da hankali ne a China. Farashin polysilicon da aka samar yana da ƙasa, farashin sufuri yana da ƙasa, kuma buƙatun yana da cikakken garanti. Na biyu, kasar Sin ta sanya haraji mai yawa na hana jibge kayayyakin da ake shigo da su daga kasashen Amurka da Koriya ta Kudu, lamarin da ya dakile yawan shan siliki daga Amurka da Koriya ta Kudu. Yi hankali wajen gina sabbin ayyuka; Bugu da kari, a cikin 'yan shekarun nan, kamfanonin kasar Sin polysilicon da ke ketare sun yi tafiyar hawainiya sakamakon tasirin kudin fito, kana an rage wasu layukan da ake samarwa ko ma rufe su, kuma adadinsu a duk duniya yana raguwa a kowace shekara, don haka su ma. Ba zai yi kama da hauhawar farashin polysilicon ba a cikin 2021 a matsayin babban ribar da kamfanin kasar Sin ke samu, yanayin kudi bai isa ba don tallafawa saurin fadada ikonsa na samarwa.
Bisa alkaluma daban-daban na samar da polysilicon a kasar Sin da ketare daga shekarar 2022 zuwa 2025, za a iya takaita kimar da aka yi hasashen samar da polysilicon a duniya. An kiyasta cewa samar da polysilicon na duniya a cikin 2025 zai kai tan miliyan 1.371. Dangane da kimar da aka yi na samar da polysilicon, ana iya samun kaso na kasar Sin na adadin duniya da kusan . Ana sa ran sannu a hankali kason kasar Sin zai fadada daga shekarar 2022 zuwa 2025, kuma zai zarce kashi 87% a shekarar 2025.
6, Summary da Outlook
Polysilicon yana ƙasan siliki na masana'antu da sama na dukkan sarkar masana'antar hotovoltaic da semiconductor, kuma matsayinsa yana da mahimmanci. Sarkar masana'antar photovoltaic gabaɗaya ita ce ƙarfin shigar polysilicon-silicon wafer-cell-module-photovoltaic, kuma sarkar masana'antar semiconductor gabaɗaya ita ce polysilicon-monocrystalline silicon wafer-silicon wafer-chip. Amfani daban-daban suna da buƙatu daban-daban akan tsabtar polysilicon. Masana'antar photovoltaic galibi tana amfani da polysilicon mai darajar hasken rana, kuma masana'antar semiconductor tana amfani da polysilicon na lantarki. Na farko yana da kewayon tsafta na 6N-8N, yayin da na ƙarshen yana buƙatar tsabtar 9N ko fiye.
Shekaru, tsarin samar da polysilicon na yau da kullun shine ingantacciyar hanyar Siemens a duk faɗin duniya. A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, wasu kamfanoni sun binciko ƙananan farashin silane fluidized hanyar gado, wanda zai iya yin tasiri akan tsarin samarwa. Polysilicon mai siffar sanda da aka yi ta hanyar Siemens da aka gyara yana da halaye na yawan amfani da makamashi, tsada mai tsada da tsabta mai yawa, yayin da granular silicon da aka samar ta hanyar silane fluidized hanyar gado yana da halaye na rashin amfani da makamashi, ƙananan farashi da ƙananan tsabta. . Wasu kamfanoni na kasar Sin sun fahimci yawan samar da silicon granular da fasahar yin amfani da silicon granular don cire polysilicon, amma ba a inganta shi sosai ba. Ko siliki na granular zai iya maye gurbin tsohon a nan gaba ya dogara da ko fa'idar farashi na iya rufe rashin ingancin inganci, tasirin aikace-aikacen ƙasa, da haɓaka amincin silane. A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, yawan sinadarin polysilicon na duniya ya karu kowace shekara, kuma sannu a hankali ana taruwa a kasar Sin. Daga shekarar 2017 zuwa 2021, yawan sinadarin polysilicon na duniya na shekara zai karu daga ton 432,000 zuwa tan 631,000, tare da samun bunkasuwa mafi sauri a shekarar 2021. A cikin wannan lokaci, samar da sinadarin polysilicon na duniya sannu a hankali ya kara mayar da hankali ga kasar Sin, kuma adadin da kasar Sin ta samar da sinadarin polysilicon ya karu daga kasar Sin. 56.02% a cikin 2017 zuwa 80.03% a 2021. Daga 2022 zuwa 2025, samar da polysilicon zai haifar da girma mai girma. An kiyasta cewa samar da polysilicon a shekarar 2025 zai kai tan miliyan 1.194 a kasar Sin, kuma yawan amfanin da ake samu a ketare zai kai tan 176,000. Don haka, samar da polysilicon na duniya a cikin 2025 zai zama kusan tan miliyan 1.37.
(Wannan labarin kawai don tunani ne na abokan ciniki na UrbanMines kuma baya wakiltar kowane shawarar saka hannun jari)